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Maple Leafs News and Views => Leafs Media Rumours => Topic started by: Significantly Insignificant on February 16, 2015, 12:55:59 PM

Title: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 16, 2015, 12:55:59 PM
http://www.tsn.ca/trade-talk-kessel-in-the-sunshine-state-1.208497

I love how these reports are "We'll take your best player, but we don't want to part with one of our top assets."
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Frank E on February 16, 2015, 12:59:12 PM
"Every NHL team interested in adding perennial 30 goal scorer at right price: TSN"
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 01:02:53 PM
I wonder what "young stud" means in this instance. I obviously can't blame them for not wanting to include Barkov or Ekblad here. But would a Bjugstad or Huberdeau be available? Either of those two would be a nice starting point in negotiations.

I also think that Florida makes a ton of sense here. They have a boatload of young talent but still need that one big offensive weapon to take the next step.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: L K on February 16, 2015, 01:03:34 PM
I'm also interested in Bjugstad, Huberdeau, Barkov, Ekblad, their 1st round pick, Matheson and Petrovic.  Doesn't mean we can just get them.  Any team getting a 30+ goal scorer locked and guaranteed for 8-years (important for teams that don't tend to snag a lot of free agents) is going to pay through the nose for him. 
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 01:05:40 PM
From earlier today:

Quote
Chris Johnston ‏@reporterchris  22 minutes ago
Dave Nonis tells Hockey Central at Noon that he's had "a number" of trade conversations with other teams on Kessel.

Starting to really seem like we're seeing Kessel's final couple of months in Toronto.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: freer on February 16, 2015, 01:09:09 PM
From earlier today:

Quote
Chris Johnston ‏@reporterchris  22 minutes ago
Dave Nonis tells Hockey Central at Noon that he's had "a number" of trade conversations with other teams on Kessel.

Starting to really seem like we're seeing Kessel's final couple of months in Toronto.

If so I wish him a great career. Bring on the youth and picks
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 16, 2015, 01:12:09 PM
That's just it.  I can't tell from the tone of the post if all those players listed are the young studs that they won't part with.  I can't see how that would be reasonable.

When they trade Kessel and Phanuef, those are the trades they need to make hay with.  All the other trades are nice as add-ons, but those are the two players that can really set the table for the future. 

Also, what if Kessel doesn't want to go to Florida?  He does have the limited no trade.  If he doesn't want to go there it's possible he has said as much.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: bustaheims on February 16, 2015, 01:13:25 PM
If they're not willing to include Bjugstad, Huberdeau, etc., then they're not really interested. I understand not wanting to include Ekblad or Barkov - they'd be crazy to move either of them - but the others . . . you don't add an elite goal scorer without giving up something very valuable.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on February 16, 2015, 01:17:33 PM
If they're not willing to include Bjugstad, Huberdeau, etc., then they're not really interested. I understand not wanting to include Ekblad or Barkov - they'd be crazy to move either of them - but the others . . . you don't add an elite goal scorer without giving up something very valuable.

Agreed. If Kessel was/ is available, almost every team in the league that needs that guy will be calling and the offers near the end, would be quite high I would think.

Florida is not serious if they don't add at least 2 of the above mentioned young players and their 1st.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 01:18:03 PM
If they're not willing to include Bjugstad, Huberdeau, etc., then they're not really interested. I understand not wanting to include Ekblad or Barkov - they'd be crazy to move either of them - but the others . . . you don't add an elite goal scorer without giving up something very valuable.

I can't see Tallon even engaging in a trade talks for a guy like Kessel if he's completely unwilling to move any of his big-4. I'm sure he'd consider moving Bjugstad or Huberdeau here. Maybe his starting stance is that those guys are off the table, but if he's serious about a trade that will change.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: sickbeast on February 16, 2015, 01:20:46 PM
The real shame here is that the Leafs will never ever ever get two first round and one second round pick for Kessel as they gave up in order to acquire him to begin with.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on February 16, 2015, 01:24:03 PM
The real shame here is that the Leafs will never ever ever get two first round and one second round pick for Kessel as they gave up in order to acquire him to begin with.


But, I don't see that the equivalent in players and picks coming back would be an unrealistic achievement.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on February 16, 2015, 01:24:09 PM
If they're not willing to include Bjugstad, Huberdeau, etc., then they're not really interested. I understand not wanting to include Ekblad or Barkov - they'd be crazy to move either of them - but the others . . . you don't add an elite goal scorer without giving up something very valuable.

I can't see Tallon even engaging in a trade talks for a guy like Kessel if he's completely unwilling to move any of his big-4. I'm sure he'd consider moving Bjugstad or Huberdeau here. Maybe his starting stance is that those guys are off the table, but if he's serious about a trade that will change.

There's not really anything else on their roster TBH.

I'd send them Kessel and Bozak for Huberdeau, Bjugstad and a 1st and 2nd from this year and be done with it.

Anyone think they'd do that? Is it enough of a return?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Frank E on February 16, 2015, 01:26:09 PM
If they're not willing to include Bjugstad, Huberdeau, etc., then they're not really interested. I understand not wanting to include Ekblad or Barkov - they'd be crazy to move either of them - but the others . . . you don't add an elite goal scorer without giving up something very valuable.

I can't see Tallon even engaging in a trade talks for a guy like Kessel if he's completely unwilling to move any of his big-4. I'm sure he'd consider moving Bjugstad or Huberdeau here. Maybe his starting stance is that those guys are off the table, but if he's serious about a trade that will change.

Looking at the standings, I'm wondering who's a bubble club that would be willing to trade their 1st rounder...Florida's right there, otherwise you're getting a pick in the 20+ range.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 01:27:47 PM
There's not really anything else on their roster TBH.

I'd send them Kessel and Bozak for Huberdeau, Bjugstad and a 1st and 2nd from this year and be done with it.

Anyone think they'd do that? Is it enough of a return?

A Kessel/Bozak package would be interesting (and of course hilarious). At first glance I would absolutely do that deal, but I doubt Florida does. Florida would only be interesting in Bozak as a 2C if they move Bjugstad, so let's say he stays in the deal and Huberdeau is downgraded to a slightly lesser prospect like Trocheck. Maybe that does it, who knows though.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Stickytape on February 16, 2015, 01:33:13 PM
Also, what if Kessel doesn't want to go to Florida?  He does have the limited no trade.  If he doesn't want to go there it's possible he has said as much.

He owns property and spends his summers in Florida anyway, doesn't he? I know that's not always the biggest factor, but I can't imagine he would turn down the offer.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 01:35:52 PM
Also, what if Kessel doesn't want to go to Florida?  He does have the limited no trade.  If he doesn't want to go there it's possible he has said as much.

Kessel's already said this: “I go where they want me. I love Toronto. But [if] it’s not here, it’s not here.” And really, I doubt he'd be too bummed about going to Florida.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: sickbeast on February 16, 2015, 01:38:51 PM
I would really love to see Kessel play with McDavid. It will never happen though. I actually really like Kessel and I really hope that they get a lot in return for him otherwise I won't want to see him go.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Can8899 on February 16, 2015, 01:39:56 PM
The article is not clear at all on who the non-starters are so I'm just going to assume that Bjugstad is not on the list.

I would be happy with something like:

Nick Bjugstad
Tomas Fleischman (for cap reasons only)
Prospect
1st Rounder this year or next.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: slapshot on February 16, 2015, 01:49:45 PM
I think what they are talking about sounds out to lunch. They don't want to give up any of the young studs but just have us hand Kessel over, so they can compete but we can't in our own conference.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2015, 01:50:34 PM
The article is not clear at all on who the non-starters are so I'm just going to assume that Bjugstad is not on the list.

I would be happy with something like:

Nick Bjugstad
Tomas Fleischman (for cap reasons only)
Prospect
1st Rounder this year or next.

I say throw in Gardiner and ask for Ekblad. Surely Kessel + Gardiner = Ekblad
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on February 16, 2015, 01:57:42 PM
The article is not clear at all on who the non-starters are so I'm just going to assume that Bjugstad is not on the list.

I would be happy with something like:

Nick Bjugstad
Tomas Fleischman (for cap reasons only)
Prospect
1st Rounder this year or next.

I say throw in Gardiner and ask for Ekblad. Surely Kessel + Gardiner = Ekblad

There's just no chance that they'd do that. 32 pts and 9 G in 55 games as a rookie. He costs them very little against the cap for the next few years vs. the 12M of Gardiner + Kessel.

Throw in our 1st and I'm sure you'd get a deal.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 01:57:47 PM
I say throw in Gardiner and ask for Ekblad. Surely Kessel + Gardiner = Ekblad

They're not moving Ekblad. It's really that simple.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2015, 02:01:45 PM
I say throw in Gardiner and ask for Ekblad. Surely Kessel + Gardiner = Ekblad

They're not moving Ekblad. It's really that simple.

I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really? Kessel's worth is greater than whichever teams agrees to rape you the least. I  know there are many fans guilty of overvaluing Leafs players, but I think sometimes it goes too far to the other side. Wait until next season, when Kessel goes on another tear, then shop him.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 16, 2015, 02:06:19 PM
I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2015, 02:08:10 PM
I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.

Sure, but the Leafs can also afford to wait until the right offer comes. They don't need to sell to the highest bidder this instant, no matter what the return.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 16, 2015, 02:11:28 PM
I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.

Sure, but the Leafs can also afford to wait until the right offer comes. They don't need to sell to the highest bidder this instant, no matter what the return.

Right. That's why I said "will come a point". I don't know when that is, it might be at the draft, but I don't think you want to go into next year with Kessel still on the team. I want the best realistic return for Kessel but the rebuild is more important than just what you get for him.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on February 16, 2015, 02:14:59 PM
There's not really anything else on their roster TBH.

I'd send them Kessel and Bozak for Huberdeau, Bjugstad and a 1st and 2nd from this year and be done with it.

Anyone think they'd do that? Is it enough of a return?

A Kessel/Bozak package would be interesting (and of course hilarious). At first glance I would absolutely do that deal, but I doubt Florida does. Florida would only be interesting in Bozak as a 2C if they move Bjugstad, so let's say he stays in the deal and Huberdeau is downgraded to a slightly lesser prospect like Trocheck. Maybe that does it, who knows though.

Yeah that'd be a non-starter for me unless there were another high pick involved or Gudbranson in the place of Trochek.

Maybe even add in Polak?

Kessel, Bozak, Polak for Huberdeau, Trochek, Gudbranson + 2015 1st and 2nd.

I think I'd rather Huberdeau over Bjugstad in the long run.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: LuncheonMeat on February 16, 2015, 02:15:08 PM
I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.

Sure, but the Leafs can also afford to wait until the right offer comes. They don't need to sell to the highest bidder this instant, no matter what the return.

But if this draft is as strong as is being suggested, they really shouldn't wait.  The point is to stockpile as many 1st and 2nd round picks as possible prior to the draft.  The other thing coming back in any Kessel deal is $8 million in cap space, and an (addition by subtraction) nitro booster for the tank.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 02:21:18 PM
Yeah that'd be a non-starter for me unless there were another high pick involved or Gudbranson in the place of Trochek.

Maybe even add in Polak?

Kessel, Bozak, Polak for Huberdeau, Trochek, Gudbranson + 2015 1st and 2nd.

I think I'd rather Huberdeau over Bjugstad in the long run.

I just really don't think they'd be too interesting in basically abandoning their plan to build their team at this point. Bjugstad and Huberdeau are pretty integral parts there, moving one in a trade like this makes sense but moving two is almost like blowing up your core. I think moving both is pretty much completely off the table, guys like Polak and Bozak don't really move the needle all that much when players like that are being talked about. Maybe if the Leafs included somebody like Kadri, but again then you're asking the Panthers to blow up their plan when they don't really have to.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 16, 2015, 02:25:00 PM
George Richards is Panthers writer for Miami Herald.

Quote
@jesselangevin: are @FlaPanthers exploring options/ having conversations to acquire Kessel? #TSN”

Quote
@GeorgeRichards

In my talks w/ owner, I would say no
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2015, 02:27:01 PM
I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.

Sure, but the Leafs can also afford to wait until the right offer comes. They don't need to sell to the highest bidder this instant, no matter what the return.

But if this draft is as strong as is being suggested, they really shouldn't wait.  The point is to stockpile as many 1st and 2nd round picks as possible prior to the draft.  The other thing coming back in any Kessel deal is $8 million in cap space, and an (addition by subtraction) nitro booster for the tank.

Personally, I'd rather get a sure fire NHLer, somewhere in a deal for Kessel. Another pick that is close to bottom of the first round doesn't guarantee anything in return for the purest sniper this team has ever had (who is still in the prime of his career). I think the return needs to include a young gun along with a good pick.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2015, 02:32:54 PM
I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.

Sure, but the Leafs can also afford to wait until the right offer comes. They don't need to sell to the highest bidder this instant, no matter what the return.

Right. That's why I said "will come a point". I don't know when that is, it might be at the draft, but I don't think you want to go into next year with Kessel still on the team. I want the best realistic return for Kessel but the rebuild is more important than just what you get for him.

With Kessel being the biggest asset you have to really kick off the rebuild, it should be essential to get a substantial return, even if it means holding off on a trade until next season sometime, or longer if necessary. If the rebuild is a 3-5 year process, than there is no rush to rid yourself of Kessel based on an artificial timeline.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 16, 2015, 02:42:06 PM
With Kessel being the biggest asset you have to really kick off the rebuild, it should be essential to get a substantial return, even if it means holding off on a trade until next season sometime. If the rebuild is a 3-5 year process, than there is no rush to rid yourself of Kessel based on an artificial timeline.

A rebuild is a 5 year process ideally. Part of that process is having top picks, as in top 3, and developing those players. Keeping all-stars around waiting for unrealistic returns and finishing with the 5th or 6th overall pick is how you turn into the Blue Jackets and their 10 years of nothing. The Leafs need to get bad, legit bad, and keeping Kessel delays that process.

Again, it's not about being hasty, it's about taking a legitimate read of the market. If Nonis calls around and the best offer isn't one that meets your standards then, well, that's a sign that you might be over estimating Kessel's value. There's no guarantee offers will get better as time goes on and there's a very real risk that the offers will get worse.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 16, 2015, 02:46:10 PM
With Kessel being the biggest asset you have to really kick off the rebuild, it should be essential to get a substantial return, even if it means holding off on a trade until next season sometime. If the rebuild is a 3-5 year process, than there is no rush to rid yourself of Kessel based on an artificial timeline.

A rebuild is a 5 year process ideally. Part of that process is having top picks, as in top 3, and developing those players. Keeping all-stars around waiting for unrealistic returns and finishing with the 5th or 6th overall pick is how you turn into the Blue Jackets and their 10 years of nothing. The Leafs need to get bad, legit bad, and keeping Kessel delays that process.

Again, it's not about being hasty, it's about taking a legitimate read of the market. If Nonis calls around and the best offer isn't one that meets your standards then, well, that's a sign that you might be over estimating Kessel's value. There's no guarantee offers will get better as time goes on and there's a very real risk that the offers will get worse.

See Roberto Luongo trade from Canucks to Florida. 
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 02:50:56 PM
George Richards is Panthers writer for Miami Herald.

Quote
@jesselangevin: are @FlaPanthers exploring options/ having conversations to acquire Kessel? #TSN”

Quote
@GeorgeRichards

In my talks w/ owner, I would say no

Could be accurate, not sure the owner of the team would go spilling all their plans to a reporter though (especially on-the-record).
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 16, 2015, 02:55:23 PM
George Richards is Panthers writer for Miami Herald.

Quote
@jesselangevin: are @FlaPanthers exploring options/ having conversations to acquire Kessel? #TSN”

Quote
@GeorgeRichards

In my talks w/ owner, I would say no

Could be accurate, not sure the owner of the team would go spilling all their plans to a reporter though (especially on-the-record).

At least not to another one other than the beat reporter from the first post in this thread that is! 
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2015, 03:02:34 PM
At least not to another one other than the beat reporter from the first post in this thread that is! 

Sure, but leaks like that don't usually come from the team owner of all people.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: LuncheonMeat on February 16, 2015, 03:08:54 PM
With Kessel being the biggest asset you have to really kick off the rebuild, it should be essential to get a substantial return, even if it means holding off on a trade until next season sometime. If the rebuild is a 3-5 year process, than there is no rush to rid yourself of Kessel based on an artificial timeline.

A rebuild is a 5 year process ideally. Part of that process is having top picks, as in top 3, and developing those players. Keeping all-stars around waiting for unrealistic returns and finishing with the 5th or 6th overall pick is how you turn into the Blue Jackets and their 10 years of nothing. The Leafs need to get bad, legit bad, and keeping Kessel delays that process.

Again, it's not about being hasty, it's about taking a legitimate read of the market. If Nonis calls around and the best offer isn't one that meets your standards then, well, that's a sign that you might be over estimating Kessel's value. There's no guarantee offers will get better as time goes on and there's a very real risk that the offers will get worse.

There's also a risk that Kessel will get worse.  How many more summers can he go without skating before he starts to slow?  He could turn into Kyle Wellwood.   ::)
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 16, 2015, 03:14:35 PM
There's also a risk that Kessel will get worse.  How many more summers can he go without skating before he starts to slow?  He could turn into Kyle Wellwood.   ::)

I don't know how much of that is sarcastic but I wasn't saying that I thought he might get significantly worse, just that he, like all players, is at danger every game from suffering a significant injury. That's not the biggest concern in the world but it is something to consider.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2015, 03:43:26 PM
There's also a risk that Kessel will get worse.  How many more summers can he go without skating before he starts to slow?  He could turn into Kyle Wellwood.   ::)

I don't know how much of that is sarcastic but I wasn't saying that I thought he might get significantly worse, just that he, like all players, is at danger every game from suffering a significant injury. That's not the biggest concern in the world but it is something to consider.

l guess if you want to get  the lowest possible return on Kessel you trade him now, when he has looked his absolute worse since coming to the Leafs. I don't think you get maximum value on him until he at least returns to form.

I would take the gamble and hold off trading him until he returns to the Kessel that plays like one of the top goal scorers in the league. If you are scouting him lately , you certainly are not seeing that side of his game right now.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 16, 2015, 03:47:30 PM
l guess if you want to get  the lowest possible return on Kessel you trade him now, when he has looked his absolute worse since coming to the Leafs. I don't think you get maximum value on him until he at least returns to form.

If a team is trading for Kessel with 7 years left on his deal they're not going to be overly swayed by a bad stretch of games from him. They know his value. Even if not, if he were the kind of player where a bad 15+ game stretch would significantly affect his value then to be honest it really cuts down your idea that he's worth a ton to begin with. Teams aren't stupid. They know what he does.
 
But with all that said, nobody is saying he needs to be dealt immediately. I personally think the summer is the best time for a major trade like that and the draft especially.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on February 16, 2015, 04:03:48 PM
I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.

Sure, but the Leafs can also afford to wait until the right offer comes. They don't need to sell to the highest bidder this instant, no matter what the return.

But if this draft is as strong as is being suggested, they really shouldn't wait.  The point is to stockpile as many 1st and 2nd round picks as possible prior to the draft.  The other thing coming back in any Kessel deal is $8 million in cap space, and an (addition by subtraction) nitro booster for the tank.

The more I think about it (not even that long) I'm starting to agree with this line of thinking.

Kessel was acquired for two 1sts and a 2nd. A 1st this year, a good prospect like Huberdeau or Bjugstad (who were first rounders), 8M in cap space and our own pick getting better by subtraction this year and next are all reasons to make the deal sooner rather than later. I'd look to add a 2nd as well.

1st, 2nd, Bjugstad/Huberdeau is basically what we traded for Kessel (before the 1st became the #2 overall). That's probably about the best we'll do.

EDIT: Meant to quote Nik's post about a 5 year re-build and Columbus going nowhere for 10.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: LuncheonMeat on February 16, 2015, 04:30:54 PM
There's also a risk that Kessel will get worse.  How many more summers can he go without skating before he starts to slow?  He could turn into Kyle Wellwood.   ::)

I don't know how much of that is sarcastic but I wasn't saying that I thought he might get significantly worse, just that he, like all players, is at danger every game from suffering a significant injury. That's not the biggest concern in the world but it is something to consider.

I was being a little sarcastic, but not toward you.  I really think there will come a time when Kessel's lack of conditioning will catch up with him and his production and speed will start to decline.  And I think that will happen sooner than later, and before the Leafs are ready to contend.  And your point about the potential of injury is a good one.  I would really hate to look back and see a lost opportunity to gather assets this year, given that he can likely fetch a good return.  And the cap space doesn't hurt either.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2015, 04:32:21 PM
l guess if you want to get  the lowest possible return on Kessel you trade him now, when he has looked his absolute worse since coming to the Leafs. I don't think you get maximum value on him until he at least returns to form.

If a team is trading for Kessel with 7 years left on his deal they're not going to be overly swayed by a bad stretch of games from him. They know his value. Even if not, if he were the kind of player where a bad 15+ game stretch would significantly affect his value then to be honest it really cuts down your idea that he's worth a ton to begin with. Teams aren't stupid. They know what he does.
 
But with all that said, nobody is saying he needs to be dealt immediately. I personally think the summer is the best time for a major trade like that and the draft especially.

Even smart GMs have short term memory sometimes
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 16, 2015, 04:46:56 PM
Even smart GMs have short term memory sometimes

Some might but in theory there will be multiple teams interested in Kessel and, again, nobody is seriously advocating trading him by the deadline or bust. Just that you can't hold on to him forever in the hopes that a trade that's no more likely to come in the future than now materializes.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Chris on February 16, 2015, 04:57:27 PM
At some point you just have to pull the trigger and make the best deal available. I have to wonder how much of his current "slump" could be due to conditioning (or lack thereof) and I'm sure other GMs are wondering that as well. But with the team overall in such a tailspin, it's hard to partition out the blame among conditioning, apathy, coaching/system, linemates, etc. It's not as if Bozak and JVR are helping much.

Wanted to ask if Howard Berger is considered a joke? He wrote a blog post today advocating a Kessel for Florida's first and Brad Boyes, claiming that getting Florida's first alone makes it worth it. I LOL'd when I read it - has to be a joke, right?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 16, 2015, 06:26:56 PM
I was being a little sarcastic, but not toward you.  I really think there will come a time when Kessel's lack of conditioning will catch up with him and his production and speed will start to decline.  And I think that will happen sooner than later, and before the Leafs are ready to contend.  And your point about the potential of injury is a good one.  I would really hate to look back and see a lost opportunity to gather assets this year, given that he can likely fetch a good return.  And the cap space doesn't hurt either.

He doesn't have a lack of conditioning, or at least none that's been documented.  Around training camp Cox tweeted about Kessel being among the best in the Leafs' fitness testing.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 02:33:57 AM
What are the specifics regarding Kessel's limited NTC again? The one thing I would be concerned with - especially if the Leafs are serious about trading Kessel, would be if he flipped the script and went to the media with a trade demand - that would be a disaster.

As far as returns go for Kessel I'm still not sure what a one dimensional player with a questionable work ethic should expect to return on the trade market. Undoubtably one of the better goal scorers in the league but that's about where it ends - if he's not scoring he's hardly noticeable. If I'm a Leaf fan I don't know how crazy I'd be about anything Florida has to offer either. I also think Nonis & Shanahan should not say anything more to the media about trading him - they don't want to start giving off the impression that they're desperate to trade him.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 17, 2015, 08:28:29 AM
As far as returns go for Kessel I'm still not sure what a one dimensional player with a questionable work ethic should expect to return on the trade market.

I think the bar has been set at Alex Chiasson, Nick Paul, Alex Guptill and a second.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 17, 2015, 08:44:31 AM
As far as returns go for Kessel I'm still not sure what a one dimensional player with a questionable work ethic should expect to return on the trade market.

I think the bar has been set at Alex Chiasson, Nick Paul, Alex Guptill and a second.

Pipe dream.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Bullfrog on February 17, 2015, 08:47:20 AM
Zdeno Chara, Bill Muckalt, and a top 3 pick?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 17, 2015, 08:54:58 AM

I mean, at worst if Kessel does demand a trade you have to figure on at least Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo and a 2nd.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Andy on February 17, 2015, 09:02:09 AM
Kessel, Nylander and a 1st for Hoffman?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 09:33:24 AM
The only thing Kessel has in common with Spezza is his hairline.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 17, 2015, 09:37:29 AM

It's a fair point. Spezza never scored 35 in a season.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 17, 2015, 09:40:48 AM
True, one's an Olympic medalist.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 09:45:01 AM
Same amount of times Kessel has put up over 84 pts in a season.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 09:49:30 AM
Like the Olympics mean anything ::) How many Spengler Cups has Kessel won?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 17, 2015, 09:56:59 AM

Kessel's also younger, signed to a long-term contract and didn't ask out of where he's currently playing the way Spezza and so many Senators before him have.

So in retrospect they're not all that much alike. Like I said, it's a low bar.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 10:10:48 AM
I'm not 100% sure why you keep talking about Kessel's contract like it's a positive? Speaking of which what does his NTC detail?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Big Daddy on February 17, 2015, 10:35:24 AM
Maybe Jokinen gets moved with Kessel to FLA to play with his brother.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Manson on February 17, 2015, 10:48:32 AM

I mean, at worst if Kessel does demand a trade you have to figure on at least Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo and a 2nd.

Nah, I'm thinking more like two 1sts and a 2nd.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 17, 2015, 10:51:13 AM

I mean, at worst if Kessel does demand a trade you have to figure on at least Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo and a 2nd.

Nah, I'm thinking more like two 1sts and a 2nd.

Eh, you never know. He might like Calgary.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 17, 2015, 10:55:17 AM
Nah, I'm thinking more like two 1sts and a 2nd.

I know it's a joke, but I've seen it mentioned a few times here and elsewhere as kind of a put-down - like Kessel's not even worth now what they paid to get him, or something.  But it's not like the deal was just made yesterday - Kessel's value today is different than it was as he was coming into his prime.  Doesn't mean he isn't worth a lot, but doesn't mean he's worth that today either.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 17, 2015, 02:22:19 PM
I'm not 100% sure why you keep talking about Kessel's contract like it's a positive? Speaking of which what does his NTC detail?

Because the acquiring team gets him long term on a reasonable contract.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 05:35:02 PM
I'm not 100% sure why you keep talking about Kessel's contract like it's a positive? Speaking of which what does his NTC detail?

Because the acquiring team gets him long term on a reasonable contract.

With respect I don't think 7 more years at 8 million per is very reasonable - not in a salary cap landscape...it's going to dictate who they can trade him to and they'll most likely have to take back a bad contract in any deal. I don't think they trade him personally. This is what I was alluding to earlier when I said it would be a disaster if Phil decides he has taken enough of the media's bs and requests a trade out. Keeping him happy right now should be paramount - show that guy some love!
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Highlander on February 17, 2015, 05:49:26 PM
At least two firsts and a second and they take Clarkson to shine his skates
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Joe S. on February 17, 2015, 05:53:04 PM
I'm glad we have an objective sens fan here to keep us all honest. God know his opinion contains no bias at all.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Manson on February 17, 2015, 06:45:02 PM
I'm glad we have an objective sens fan here to keep us all honest. God know his opinion contains no bias at all.

For what it's worth, I think it's a bad contract too and it seriously affects his trade value.  Granted, I'm a Habs fan and not the most knowledgeable guy in the world (or this thread) about contracts, salary cap etc.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 17, 2015, 07:00:15 PM
I'm not 100% sure why you keep talking about Kessel's contract like it's a positive? Speaking of which what does his NTC detail?

Because the acquiring team gets him long term on a reasonable contract.

With respect I don't think 7 more years at 8 million per is very reasonable - not in a salary cap landscape...it's going to dictate who they can trade him to and they'll most likely have to take back a bad contract in any deal. I don't think they trade him personally. This is what I was alluding to earlier when I said it would be a disaster if Phil decides he has taken enough of the media's bs and requests a trade out. Keeping him happy right now should be paramount - show that guy some love!

Going by recent comparable contracts signed, I think it is reasonable (P. Kane, B. Ryan). What is your reasoning?

Dreger and LeBrun have both said they have talked to a number of NHL executives who don't think the leafs will have to take bad salary.

I don't think they need to trade him either, but there will be  plenty of suitors in the off-season if they decide to move him. If they take one player back at ~3M, he'd only be adding 5M to a team's salary cap, pretty much any team can afford that. This isn't a David Clarkson or Mike Richards situation, this is premier NHL talent, despite his flaws.

Points aren't everything, I know, but this guy is 4th in goals and top 15 in points since he joined the Leafs.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 17, 2015, 07:09:05 PM
I'm glad we have an objective sens fan here to keep us all honest. God know his opinion contains no bias at all.

For what it's worth, I think it's a bad contract too and it seriously affects his trade value.  Granted, I'm a Habs fan and not the most knowledgeable guy in the world (or this thread) about contracts, salary cap etc.

If you don't have much knowledge of that stuff how can you call it a good or bad contract?  The contract relative to other similar players would seem to be vital information to form an opinion on it.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: sneakyray on February 17, 2015, 07:30:53 PM
jeff carter got a 1st plus jack johnson in the midst of his worst season where he was not playing (cause he was hurt) and had reportedly given up on his team.

don't see how phil is worth any less.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Manson on February 17, 2015, 07:58:12 PM

If you don't have much knowledge of that stuff how can you call it a good or bad contract?  The contract relative to other similar players would seem to be vital information to form an opinion on it.

I don't follow the financial side of things as closely as some of you, but I'm fairly certain $8M/yr is what franchise players are getting.  My view of Kessel is that he's a complimentary player getting franchise player money.  I'd be especially worried about the latter half of that contract as he enters his early and mid 30's.  If he was $7M/yr for 5 more years, that would be much better.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Manson on February 17, 2015, 07:59:13 PM
jeff carter got a 1st plus jack johnson in the midst of his worst season where he was not playing (cause he was hurt) and had reportedly given up on his team.

don't see how phil is worth any less.

I don't know, what did Carter's remaining contract look like?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Frank E on February 17, 2015, 08:03:10 PM
jeff carter got a 1st plus jack johnson in the midst of his worst season where he was not playing (cause he was hurt) and had reportedly given up on his team.

don't see how phil is worth any less.

I don't know, what did Carter's remaining contract look like?

I think that's a fair question, but Kessel's contract is very reasonable given his production over the past few years.  It's a commitment, and teams should be wary of such a long commitment, but I'm of the opinion that he's not overpaid.

I think he should fetch quite a return given his history of producing being the only real elite offensive weapon on a lousy team in the recent past.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Manson on February 17, 2015, 08:06:50 PM

I think that's a fair question, but Kessel's contract is very reasonable given his production over the past few years.  It's a commitment, and teams should be wary of such a long commitment, but I'm of the opinion that he's not overpaid.

I think he should fetch quite a return given his history of producing being the only real elite offensive weapon on a lousy team in the recent past.

I don't think he's all that "overpaid" on a per season basis at the moment, maybe slightly, it's more the term in combination with it.  In other words, it's not bad now, but it will be.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 17, 2015, 08:11:01 PM
I don't follow the financial side of things as closely as some of you, but I'm fairly certain $8M/yr is what franchise players are getting.  My view of Kessel is that he's a complimentary player getting franchise player money.

Then you're fairly certainly wrong. Franchise players like Toews and Kane are getting 10.5 million. PK Subban got 9. Any franchise player making less than that either A) signed their deal before the current CBA or B) were RFA's and their deals aren't comparable to UFA deals.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: sneakyray on February 17, 2015, 08:14:44 PM
carters contract at the time of the trade had 10 years at 5.25 cap hit left
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 17, 2015, 08:15:05 PM
jeff carter got a 1st plus jack johnson in the midst of his worst season where he was not playing (cause he was hurt) and had reportedly given up on his team.

don't see how phil is worth any less.

I don't know, what did Carter's remaining contract look like?

It had 10 years left on it, it runs until he is 37 and has potential cap recapture penalties if he retires early. Cap hit is lower than Kessel's though.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 17, 2015, 08:18:07 PM

I think that's a fair question, but Kessel's contract is very reasonable given his production over the past few years.  It's a commitment, and teams should be wary of such a long commitment, but I'm of the opinion that he's not overpaid.

I think he should fetch quite a return given his history of producing being the only real elite offensive weapon on a lousy team in the recent past.

I don't think he's all that "overpaid" on a per season basis at the moment, maybe slightly, it's more the term in combination with it.  In other words, it's not bad now, but it will be.

If the GM of the Ducks, for example, can add a premier talent in his prime like that to his team while they are among the top contenders. I don't think years 6-7 are of too much concern.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: sneakyray on February 17, 2015, 08:19:05 PM
jeff carter got a 1st plus jack johnson in the midst of his worst season where he was not playing (cause he was hurt) and had reportedly given up on his team.

don't see how phil is worth any less.

I don't know, what did Carter's remaining contract look like?

It had 10 years left on it, it runs until he is 37 and has potential cap recapture penalties if he retires early. Cap hit is lower than Kessel's though.

his was one of the contracts that caused the changes to contract rules if I'm not mistaken.

yeah phil is getting 8mil but its a straight laced contract...no cap circumvention.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 17, 2015, 08:23:01 PM
I don't think he's all that "overpaid" on a per season basis at the moment, maybe slightly, it's more the term in combination with it.  In other words, it's not bad now, but it will be.

That's great and everything but realistically other teams will know that if a player of Kessel's quality got to the open market, they could basically sign whatever contract they wanted. Guys like Nathan Horton and David Clarkson got offered 7 year deals by multiple teams. So if a team out there wants to add a player of Kessel's ability they'd more than likely understand that the sort of term we're talking about is the cost of doing business.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Manson on February 17, 2015, 08:25:35 PM
I don't follow the financial side of things as closely as some of you, but I'm fairly certain $8M/yr is what franchise players are getting.  My view of Kessel is that he's a complimentary player getting franchise player money.

Then you're fairly certainly wrong. Franchise players like Toews and Kane are getting 10.5 million. PK Subban got 9. Any franchise player making less than that either A) signed their deal before the current CBA or B) were RFA's and their deals aren't comparable to UFA deals.

Well, see there ya go.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 17, 2015, 08:26:17 PM
I don't think he's all that "overpaid" on a per season basis at the moment, maybe slightly, it's more the term in combination with it.  In other words, it's not bad now, but it will be.

That's great and everything but realistically other teams will know that if a player of Kessel's quality got to the open market, they could basically sign whatever contract they wanted. Guys like Nathan Horton and David Clarkson got offered 7 year deals by multiple teams. So if a team out there wants to add a player of Kessel's ability they'd more than likely understand that the sort of term we're talking about is the cost of doing business.

Yeah, its either give term, or don't sign the player. Especially when we are talking about a premier talent.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Manson on February 17, 2015, 08:27:21 PM

It had 10 years left on it, it runs until he is 37 and has potential cap recapture penalties if he retires early. Cap hit is lower than Kessel's though.

10 years, wow.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 08:38:24 PM
My reasoning is I think the term and $ left for a non franchise player is going to be too much of gamble for most teams in the league. I don't disagree that he's one of the purest goal scorers in the league - it's got nothing to do with his talent.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 08:41:13 PM
If someone traded for him it wouldn't be to build around him . Wingers are rarely franchise players.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Frank E on February 17, 2015, 08:48:51 PM
If someone traded for him it wouldn't be to build around him . Wingers are rarely franchise players.

Kings and Hawks have got some pretty good wingers, right?

Nobody argued a rebuild around a 27 year old player, but Stanley Cup winners lately have got 30+ goal wingers, right?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 08:56:27 PM
If someone traded for him it wouldn't be to build around him . Wingers are rarely franchise players.

Kings and Hawks have got some pretty good wingers, right?

Nobody argued a rebuild around a 27 year old player, but Stanley Cup winners lately have got 30+ goal wingers, right?

?   I'm not following you Frank..
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 17, 2015, 09:05:16 PM
My reasoning is I think the term and $ left for a non franchise player is going to be too much of gamble for most teams in the league.

If any team wants to add a a prime-aged elite scorer prime to their team, this is what it costs.

Like I said, move out a 2-3M player in the trade to get him and its a very manageable number to add to any team, especially when you are getting one of the best goal scorers in the game. I think teams that are ready to take the next step will make the gamble. It's not like they can't move him after a couple years.

Obsessing over a couple years of term and 750k in cap when you are talking about adding a top player to contender is largely a fan and media phenomenon.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: sneakyray on February 17, 2015, 09:10:57 PM
My reasoning is I think the term and $ left for a non franchise player is going to be too much of gamble for most teams in the league.

If any team wants to add a a prime-aged elite scorer prime to their team, this is what it costs.

Like I said, move out a 2-3M player in the trade to get him and its a very manageable number to add to any team, especially when you are getting one of the best goal scorers in the game. I think teams that are ready to take the next step will make the gamble. It's not like they can't move him after a couple years.

Obsessing over a couple years of term and 750k in cap when you are talking about adding a top player to contender is largely a fan and media phenomenon.

this is how I feel too.  Right in the prime of his career...durable...top 10 in points the last 3 years.

he will either fetch at least a 1st and a premiere prospect/young player or he won't be traded.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on February 17, 2015, 09:13:43 PM
If someone traded for him it wouldn't be to build around him . Wingers are rarely franchise players.

So if Anaheim (as an example) trade for Kessel it won't be to build the whole franchise around. Solid point.

I don't think anyone's advocating for moving him to Buffalo..
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: sneakyray on February 17, 2015, 09:18:12 PM
I was just wondering who toronto will build their team around once they trade phil.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 17, 2015, 09:21:39 PM
I was just wondering who toronto will build their team around once they trade phil.

2015 1st Nylander Reilly to start.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: bustaheims on February 17, 2015, 09:30:53 PM
Outside of generational talent types or exceptional goaltenders, the idea that teams build around a single player is garbage.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 17, 2015, 09:48:36 PM
If someone traded for him it wouldn't be to build around him . Wingers are rarely franchise players.

So if Anaheim (as an example) trade for Kessel it won't be to build the whole franchise around. Solid point.

I don't think anyone's advocating for moving him to Buffalo..

No - I'm saying I don't believe teams are willing to trade for a player who isn't a franchise player but is paid like one for the next 7 years.  On top of the premium package they'd have to put together to acquire him. It's way too risky.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 17, 2015, 10:24:05 PM
If someone traded for him it wouldn't be to build around him . Wingers are rarely franchise players.

So if Anaheim (as an example) trade for Kessel it won't be to build the whole franchise around. Solid point.

I don't think anyone's advocating for moving him to Buffalo..

No - I'm saying I don't believe teams are willing to trade for a player who isn't a franchise player but is paid like one for the next 7 years.  On top of the premium package they'd have to put together to acquire him. It's way too risky.

So what is your opinion of the Bobby Ryan deal?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 17, 2015, 10:37:00 PM
If someone traded for him it wouldn't be to build around him . Wingers are rarely franchise players.

So if Anaheim (as an example) trade for Kessel it won't be to build the whole franchise around. Solid point.

I don't think anyone's advocating for moving him to Buffalo..

No - I'm saying I don't believe teams are willing to trade for a player who isn't a franchise player but is paid like one for the next 7 years.  On top of the premium package they'd have to put together to acquire him. It's way too risky.

Pending UFA franchise players are going to get more than Kessel is earning.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: BrownRolo on February 17, 2015, 11:09:19 PM
I'm not 100% sure why you keep talking about Kessel's contract like it's a positive? Speaking of which what does his NTC detail?

As  Significantly Insignificant said, what's your opinion on the Bobby Ryan deal?  Let's compare..

Phil Kessel: UFA 2022 Cap Hit of $8,000,000
7 months younger, 60 more goals, 68 more assists
Goals per game: .3788
Assists per game: .4083

Bobby Ryan: UFA 2022 Cap Hit of $7,250,000
Goals per game: .3687
Assists per game: .3907

So Kessel gets paid $750,000 more per season than Bobby Ryan.
You must think the Ryan deal is a negative as well.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Joe S. on February 17, 2015, 11:19:01 PM
This all makes no difference. Kypreos has said that the leafs will have to beg other teams to take on kessel. He has  no trade value. The kypreos has spoken.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: TML fan on February 17, 2015, 11:21:43 PM
Outside of generational talent types or exceptional goaltenders, the idea that teams build around a single player is garbage.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 18, 2015, 12:04:29 AM
I'm not 100% sure why you keep talking about Kessel's contract like it's a positive? Speaking of which what does his NTC detail?

As  Significantly Insignificant said, what's your opinion on the Bobby Ryan deal?  Let's compare..

Phil Kessel: UFA 2022 Cap Hit of $8,000,000
7 months younger, 60 more goals, 68 more assists
Goals per game: .3788
Assists per game: .4083

Bobby Ryan: UFA 2022 Cap Hit of $7,250,000
Goals per game: .3687
Assists per game: .3907

So Kessel gets paid $750,000 more per season than Bobby Ryan.
You must think the Ryan deal is a negative as well.

For present contract status, you're really flattering Ryan and shortchanging Kessel by showing their career stats.  If you look at the last 4 years of production in particular between the two, it's not even close.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 18, 2015, 12:31:25 AM
For kicks, 2011-14:

P. Kessel     212  94  120  214
B. Ryan      198  65   70   135
O. Jokinen  209  48   70   118
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: BrownRolo on February 18, 2015, 03:34:31 AM
I'm not 100% sure why you keep talking about Kessel's contract like it's a positive? Speaking of which what does his NTC detail?

As  Significantly Insignificant said, what's your opinion on the Bobby Ryan deal?  Let's compare..

Phil Kessel: UFA 2022 Cap Hit of $8,000,000
7 months younger, 60 more goals, 68 more assists
Goals per game: .3788
Assists per game: .4083

Bobby Ryan: UFA 2022 Cap Hit of $7,250,000
Goals per game: .3687
Assists per game: .3907

So Kessel gets paid $750,000 more per season than Bobby Ryan.
You must think the Ryan deal is a negative as well.

For present contract status, you're really flattering Ryan and shortchanging Kessel by showing their career stats.  If you look at the last 4 years of production in particular between the two, it's not even close.

Yeah, but then you are leaving out Ryan's most and third most productive seasons, plus his 4th most productive season.  I think most hockey fans, except for homers like Madferret, would take Kessel over Ryan. So to say Kessel's contract is not in-line with the market is crazy and if he thinks Kessel is overpaid he must really think Ryan is.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Madferret on February 18, 2015, 06:23:43 AM
I hate to point out the obvious but the Sens aren't thinking about trading Ryan. There's talk of the Hawks trading Patrick Sharp - why don't you guys compare Kessel & Sharp.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: BrownRolo on February 18, 2015, 06:47:55 AM
I hate to point out the obvious but the Sens aren't thinking about trading Ryan. There's talk of the Hawks trading Patrick Sharp - why don't you guys compare Kessel & Sharp.

Sharp is almost 6 years older than Kessel. He signed a 5 year deal at $5,900,000 per season. Definitely took a paycut to stay with the Blackhawks. Plus he is a completely different type of player. Ryan is a perfect comparison. You are saying Kessel's contract is a negative when trying to trade him. We are saying he is being paid at market value. 
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Nik on February 18, 2015, 07:40:21 AM
Yeah, but then you are leaving out Ryan's most and third most productive seasons, plus his 4th most productive season.

One of the most important things about this comparison though is that one of the selling points that would have to be intriguing to a team trading for Kessel is trying to look at Kessel's numbers without really ever having a real #1 centre or ever being anything but the team's primary scoring threat and trying to work out how his production might improve if he were ever in a situation where that wasn't the case. Ryan's goal scoring numbers on teams where he was the 4th best offensive player are markedly different from his goal scoring numbers where he's expected to carry a majority of the load.

Bobby Ryan in Anaheim, as a full time NHLer, scored 142 goals in 355 games. That works out to .4 goals a game or 33 goals per 82 games. With Ottawa he's got 37 goals in 121 games, or .305 gpg and 25 per 82. So being the main scoring threat has decreased Ryan's goal scoring output by about a third.

Kessel, on the Leafs, has scored 178 goals in 422 NHL games, or .42 a game or 35 per 82 games. If the effect of going to a team where he could play with a legit #1 center is the same as the opposite of what happened Ryan(and there's a case to be made that it could be greater as Kessel has been a better goal scorer surrounded by nobody than Ryan was with Selanne, Getzlaf and Perry) then that would work out to 45+ goals a year.

Now, clearly, that's far from scientific but I think it highlights a key point about comparing Ryan and Kessel.To justify Ryan's contract to themselves, Ottawa would have had to take Ryan's numbers in Anaheim to heart, sure, but it's a little misleading to compare that on a one to one basis with what Kessel's done here. With Kessel, the Leafs are going to pitch what else he might be able to do if he's no longer the focal point of another team's defense. With Ryan the difference was enough to mask what appears to be a fairly ordinary goal scorer as a really good one. Kessel's already a really good one. One of the best, as people keep saying.

So I think that's what HS meant. If we're trying to really get a handle on how much Kessel is better than Ryan then using Ryan's Anaheim numbers kind of distorts the picture.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: BrownRolo on February 18, 2015, 08:12:15 AM
Yeah, but then you are leaving out Ryan's most and third most productive seasons, plus his 4th most productive season.

One of the most important things about this comparison though is that one of the selling points that would have to be intriguing to a team trading for Kessel is trying to look at Kessel's numbers without really ever having a real #1 centre or ever being anything but the team's primary scoring threat and trying to work out how his production might improve if he were ever in a situation where that wasn't the case. Ryan's goal scoring numbers on teams where he was the 4th best offensive player are markedly different from his goal scoring numbers where he's expected to carry a majority of the load.

Bobby Ryan in Anaheim, as a full time NHLer, scored 142 goals in 355 games. That works out to .4 goals a game or 33 goals per 82 games. With Ottawa he's got 37 goals in 121 games, or .305 gpg and 25 per 82. So being the main scoring threat has decreased Ryan's goal scoring output by about a third.

Kessel, on the Leafs, has scored 178 goals in 422 NHL games, or .42 a game or 35 per 82 games. If the effect of going to a team where he could play with a legit #1 center is the same as the opposite of what happened Ryan(and there's a case to be made that it could be greater as Kessel has been a better goal scorer surrounded by nobody than Ryan was with Selanne, Getzlaf and Perry) then that would work out to 45+ goals a year.

Now, clearly, that's far from scientific but I think it highlights a key point about comparing Ryan and Kessel.To justify Ryan's contract to themselves, Ottawa would have had to take Ryan's numbers in Anaheim to heart, sure, but it's a little misleading to compare that on a one to one basis with what Kessel's done here. With Kessel, the Leafs are going to pitch what else he might be able to do if he's no longer the focal point of another team's defense. With Ryan the difference was enough to mask what appears to be a fairly ordinary goal scorer as a really good one. Kessel's already a really good one. One of the best, as people keep saying.

So I think that's what HS meant. If we're trying to really get a handle on how much Kessel is better than Ryan then using Ryan's Anaheim numbers kind of distorts the picture.

I was just trying to be diplomatic towards the Sens fan, but yeah, this is a good point.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: freer on February 18, 2015, 08:20:49 AM
Both B Ryan and Kessel's contract are good contracts. Neither IMO got over paid. It is the going rate in the NHL.

IMO "Kypreos know absolutely nothing about hockey" and should not be referred to EVER!
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 18, 2015, 08:59:18 AM
Yeah, but then you are leaving out Ryan's most and third most productive seasons, plus his 4th most productive season.

One of the most important things about this comparison though is that one of the selling points that would have to be intriguing to a team trading for Kessel is trying to look at Kessel's numbers without really ever having a real #1 centre or ever being anything but the team's primary scoring threat and trying to work out how his production might improve if he were ever in a situation where that wasn't the case. Ryan's goal scoring numbers on teams where he was the 4th best offensive player are markedly different from his goal scoring numbers where he's expected to carry a majority of the load.

Bobby Ryan in Anaheim, as a full time NHLer, scored 142 goals in 355 games. That works out to .4 goals a game or 33 goals per 82 games. With Ottawa he's got 37 goals in 121 games, or .305 gpg and 25 per 82. So being the main scoring threat has decreased Ryan's goal scoring output by about a third.

Kessel, on the Leafs, has scored 178 goals in 422 NHL games, or .42 a game or 35 per 82 games. If the effect of going to a team where he could play with a legit #1 center is the same as the opposite of what happened Ryan(and there's a case to be made that it could be greater as Kessel has been a better goal scorer surrounded by nobody than Ryan was with Selanne, Getzlaf and Perry) then that would work out to 45+ goals a year.

Now, clearly, that's far from scientific but I think it highlights a key point about comparing Ryan and Kessel.To justify Ryan's contract to themselves, Ottawa would have had to take Ryan's numbers in Anaheim to heart, sure, but it's a little misleading to compare that on a one to one basis with what Kessel's done here. With Kessel, the Leafs are going to pitch what else he might be able to do if he's no longer the focal point of another team's defense. With Ryan the difference was enough to mask what appears to be a fairly ordinary goal scorer as a really good one. Kessel's already a really good one. One of the best, as people keep saying.

So I think that's what HS meant. If we're trying to really get a handle on how much Kessel is better than Ryan then using Ryan's Anaheim numbers kind of distorts the picture.

Yes, that's generally what I was pointing to.  Kessel is routinely the Leafs' top scorer by a significant margin.  This is Ryan's first season in which he is on pace to be anything better than his team's 3rd top scorer.  By all measures, if one of them is overpaid, it sure isn't Kessel.

Obviously, the only reason Ryan is in this discussion is because of Ottawa/Madferret and because of his massive and comparable contract, not comparable talent.  I think if there's a fairer talent comparable to Kessel, it's Kane.  If somebody feels like doing the homework, compare Kane's numbers to Kessel's and then look at their contracts.  By that measure as well, Kessel's paycheque isn't even remotely out of line.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Joe S. on February 18, 2015, 09:10:47 AM
Ok so to summarize

Leafs suck, want to trade kessel = horrible contract
Sens not suck, do not want to trade Ryan = good contract
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 18, 2015, 09:15:09 AM
Ok so to summarize

Leafs suck, want to trade kessel = horrible contract
Sens not suck, do not want to trade Ryan = good contract

When Ryan was signed it was, and I quote, a "great day for Sens fans."
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 18, 2015, 09:22:25 AM
Ok so to summarize

Leafs suck, want to trade kessel = horrible contract
Sens not suck, do not want to trade Ryan = good contract

When Ryan was signed it was, and I quote, a "great day for Sens fans."

In fairness, I imagine every day a decent player chooses not to leave is a great day.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 18, 2015, 09:26:23 AM
Ok so to summarize

Leafs suck, want to trade kessel = horrible contract
Sens not suck, do not want to trade Ryan = good contract

When Ryan was signed it was, and I quote, a "great day for Sens fans."

In fairness, I imagine every day a decent player chooses not to leave is a great day.

This is true.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Deebo on February 18, 2015, 01:27:27 PM
I hate to point out the obvious but the Sens aren't thinking about trading Ryan. There's talk of the Hawks trading Patrick Sharp - why don't you guys compare Kessel & Sharp.

But the Sens did trade for Ryan, giving up a premium package and with the knowledge that a long term deal at 7M+ is what it was going to take to keep him. Exactly what you said teams wouldn't be willing to do for a non-franchise player. So I think Ryan is relevant to this discussion.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: hockeyfan1 on February 18, 2015, 01:34:42 PM
It's a bit preposterous to think that Florida would trade their young core -- a Bjugstad, Huberdeau, or even Gudbranson for that matter.
Why would they want to do that in the first place?

The only team I can see Kessel go to, are the New York Rangers, for the reason that they can afford him (both contract-wise and also player-wise by not losing too much in return), and also because he would an excellent addition to their already productive offence.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 18, 2015, 01:54:38 PM
I hate to point out the obvious but the Sens aren't thinking about trading Ryan. There's talk of the Hawks trading Patrick Sharp - why don't you guys compare Kessel & Sharp.

But the Sens did trade for Ryan, giving up a premium package and with the knowledge that a long term deal at 7M+ is what it was going to take to keep him. Exactly what you said teams wouldn't be willing to do for a non-franchise player. So I think Ryan is relevant to this discussion.

Not to mention - look what Evander Kane just got in the wake of him being supposedly terrible in the room and having exactly one 20+ goal season and significant injury concerns.  As well as a $5.25 M cap hit which will be up when he's turning 27.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Joe S. on February 18, 2015, 01:59:27 PM
You guys keep forgetting what Lord Kypreos said. Kessel has no value.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 18, 2015, 02:43:58 PM
I hate to point out the obvious but the Sens aren't thinking about trading Ryan. There's talk of the Hawks trading Patrick Sharp - why don't you guys compare Kessel & Sharp.

It has nothing to do with who is willing to trade who.  It has more to do with your statement that Kessel's contract is unmoveable, yet a team in the same province elected to sign a very similar player to a very similar contract.  Also happens to be the team that you follow.  At the very least, it proves that more than one GM thinks that players like Ryan and Kessel are worth that amount of money.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 18, 2015, 04:33:40 PM
You guys keep forgetting what Lord Kypreos said. Kessel has no value.

How I wish we lived in a world in which Kypreos wasn't always right.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Potvin29 on February 18, 2015, 08:43:54 PM
You guys keep forgetting what Lord Kypreos said. Kessel has no value.

Kessel and a 1st for Mike Hoffman.  How do you say no to that if you're the Leafs?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Bullfrog on February 18, 2015, 09:52:40 PM
We're talking Nashville's 1st, right? 'Cause otherwise that's krazy.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: LuncheonMeat on February 24, 2015, 11:08:48 PM
Intersting link on spectorshockey.net this evening from Comcast Sportsnet.  I wouldn't mind having Tomas Hertl and some picks/prospects.  That would speed up the rebuild a little bit and free up some $$$

http://www.csnbayarea.com/sharks/sharks-mailbag-could-kessel-be-fit-san-jose

Kevin Kurz responded to a reader’s e-mail asking about the possibility of the San Jose Sharks acquiring winger Phil Kessel from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Kurz notes the Sharks are among the few teams who can absorb Kessel’s $8 million per season salary, plus he had good chemistry with Joe Pavelski on Team USA at the 2014 Sochi Olympics.
The return, however, could be expensive. ” The Sharks would likely have to surrender a player like Tomas Hertl, Matt Nieto, Mirco Mueller, and/or Nikolay Goldobin along with multiple draft picks if they were to make a run at Kessel,” writes Kurz, who nevertheless feels the Leafs winger might be worth it
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Joe S. on February 25, 2015, 12:24:36 AM
He's not worth it. He's an anchor I've been told.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: A Finnish leaf fan on February 25, 2015, 07:20:58 AM
He's not worth it. He's an anchor I've been told.

Agreed, Hertl became overhyped because of the highlight reel goal he scored last season as a rookie. He's rapidly following Jon Cheechoo, Devin Setoguchi and even Dany Heatley on the list of "look what playing alongside Joe Thornton did to my stats". Having said that, I wouldn't mind him as a part of a Kessel trade as he's still young and has upside but in no case should he be the centerpiece coming to TO. Same goes for all the other names mentioned - none of those really strike to me as top tier talent.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 25, 2015, 09:04:20 AM
Agreed, Hertl became overhyped because of the highlight reel goal he scored last season as a rookie. He's rapidly following Jon Cheechoo, Devin Setoguchi and even Dany Heatley on the list of "look what playing alongside Joe Thornton did to my stats". Having said that, I wouldn't mind him as a part of a Kessel trade as he's still young and has upside but in no case should he be the centerpiece coming to TO. Same goes for all the other names mentioned - none of those really strike to me as top tier talent.

Their draft pick could possible be the most tantalizing piece on a trade. Right now they're drafting 14th, and their season is not going well. I could see them dropping to 12th when all is said and done. In a draft like this that will get you a pretty good player.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Can8899 on February 25, 2015, 09:38:52 AM
Agreed, Hertl became overhyped because of the highlight reel goal he scored last season as a rookie. He's rapidly following Jon Cheechoo, Devin Setoguchi and even Dany Heatley on the list of "look what playing alongside Joe Thornton did to my stats". Having said that, I wouldn't mind him as a part of a Kessel trade as he's still young and has upside but in no case should he be the centerpiece coming to TO. Same goes for all the other names mentioned - none of those really strike to me as top tier talent.

Their draft pick could possible be the most tantalizing piece on a trade. Right now they're drafting 14th, and their season is not going well. I could see them dropping to 12th when all is said and done. In a draft like this that will get you a pretty good player.


I don't think there's any way the Leafs get that haul just for Kessel.  I would think if there is a deal to be done with San Jose it would be 2 of those guys and a draft pick. 

I would be happy with Mueller, Goldobin and a 1st for Kessel however that would be the equivalent of 3 1st round picks from SJ.  Would they be willing to do that?
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 25, 2015, 09:46:43 AM
I don't think there's any way the Leafs get that haul just for Kessel.  I would think if there is a deal to be done with San Jose it would be 2 of those guys and a draft pick. 

I would be happy with Mueller, Goldobin and a 1st for Kessel however that would be the equivalent of 3 1st round picks from SJ.  Would they be willing to do that?

I don't think that the writer was suggesting that all 4 of those guys would be in the deal, just that one or two would be, like you said. If San Jose wants to get a Stanley Cup before Thornton and Marleau kick the bucket, I could see them biting on a deal like you mentioned. But I'm not even sure the Sharks know what direction they want their franchise to go in right now.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: bustaheims on February 25, 2015, 09:46:59 AM
Their draft pick could possible be the most tantalizing piece on a trade. Right now they're drafting 14th, and their season is not going well. I could see them dropping to 12th when all is said and done. In a draft like this that will get you a pretty good player.

Yup. If they can try a couple of the Sharks' quality prospects and their 1st, that would be a pretty solid return. Not going to happen at the deadline, unless they're desperate (and they are close enough that they could feel adding Kessel could get them there), but, definitely a possibility at the draft.
Title: Re: Florida interested in Kessel
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 25, 2015, 10:13:34 AM
Their draft pick could possible be the most tantalizing piece on a trade. Right now they're drafting 14th, and their season is not going well. I could see them dropping to 12th when all is said and done. In a draft like this that will get you a pretty good player.

Yup. If they can try a couple of the Sharks' quality prospects and their 1st, that would be a pretty solid return. Not going to happen at the deadline, unless they're desperate (and they are close enough that they could feel adding Kessel could get them there), but, definitely a possibility at the draft.

I feel if it goes to the draft then it may not happen.  If the Sharks miss the playoffs, then they may not be all that interested in moving that pick.  Also if they miss and win the lottery then they are definitely not moving that pick.