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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Marlies & Prospect Talk => Topic started by: CarltonTheBear on August 27, 2011, 01:41:06 PM

Title: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 27, 2011, 01:41:06 PM
A couple of sites have recently ranked our top prospects in the last week or so.

First, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus ranked our top-10 prospects (http://puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1052):

1. Joe Colborne, Center
2. Jake Gardiner, Defense
3. Jesse Blacker, Defense
4. Greg McKegg, Center
5. Stuart Percy, Defense*
6. Marcel Mueller, Left Wing
7. Jerry D'Amigo, Left Wing
8. Matt Frattin, Right Wing
9. Brad Ross, Left Wing
10. Sondre Olden, Left Wing

And today HockeysFuture ranked our top-20 prospects (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/13222/nazem_kadri_continues_reign_as_toronto_maple_leafs_top_prospect/):

1)    Nazem Kadri, C
2)    James Reimer, G
3)    Joe Colborne, C
4)    Jake Gardiner, D
5)    Keith Aulie, D
6)   Jesse Blacker, D
7)    Matt Frattin, RW
8)    Greg McKegg, LW
9)    Tyler Biggs, RW
10)    Stuart Percy, D
11)    Ben Scrivens, G
12)    Brad Ross, LW
13)    Jussi Rynnas, G
14)    Korbinian Holzer, D
15)    Jerry D'Amigo, LW
16)    Luca Caputi, LW
17)    Juraj Mikus, D
18)    Simon Gysbers, D
19)    Josh Nicholls, RW
20)    Josh Leivo, LW

It's interesting where the rankings differ. Obviously, Kadri, Aulie, and Reimer aren't considered prospects anymore at HP which explains their absence. Both Mueller and Olden cracked Corey's top-10 but didn't make it into HF's top-20. Tyler Biggs is notably absent in Corey's top-10, and explains why he isn't crazy about him as a prospect in his top-100 prospects rankings (http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=954).
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Fletch on August 27, 2011, 02:13:21 PM
The top two prospects in either list (excluding Kadri and Reimer), Colborne and Gardiner, were both acquired by Burke in trades.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on August 27, 2011, 06:16:59 PM
Glad to see Kadri is still our number 1 prospect. I really hope he shows that in the preseason.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Fletch on August 27, 2011, 07:55:21 PM
Glad to see Kadri is still our number 1 prospect. I really hope he shows that in the preseason.

I hope he shows it in the regular season.  It seems to me Caputi showed he was a topprospect in the preseason last year, and Stalberg/Hanson before that.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Jacques Strap on August 27, 2011, 08:19:32 PM
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on August 27, 2011, 09:30:36 PM
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.


So I guess this means their opinion is pointless.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: donkeyy0 on August 27, 2011, 09:34:07 PM
I don't get some of these ratings...Colborne's rating has changed 3 times since the trade (so in about ~6 months)...

Aulie is ranked behind Gardiner and Colborne (7.5C) but above Blacker (7.5C)

Also...Blacker is rated the same as Gardiner...I dunno, that just doesn't seem correct...

Also, I have my own issues with Gardiner's rating dropping. As when I saw him the couple times I did at Ricoh...the guy was by far the best athlete on the ice. Don't see why he'd have his potential drop. But whatever, that's just my own personal views. The other stuff just seems wrong/confusing.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 27, 2011, 11:24:42 PM

Interesting, in the mildest and least committed sense of the word, that neither guy is especially high on Biggs given the price paid.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 28, 2011, 12:53:23 AM
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.


So I guess this means their opinion is pointless.

Furthermore, couldn't you essentially say the same thing about a guy like Darren Dreger or Bob McKenzie? If they are such great hockey analysts why aren't they working for a NHL team? Or for a comparison closer to the one you made, why isn't Kyle Woodlief of the Red Line Report a NHL scout?
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 28, 2011, 01:06:37 PM

Clearly none of these guys have done the hard legwork and years of study that would enable them to be hired by a NHL team solely on the basis of their talent evaluation the way John Ferguson Jr. and Patrick Burke did.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: bustaheims on August 28, 2011, 01:46:33 PM
It's not necessarily an unfair question. I mean, most of the guys that write for hockeysfuture are fans that volunteer their time, have obvious biases and so on - they don't necessarily have a background in hockey or scouting - even enough knowledge of the intricacies of scouting to really give weight to their opinions.

The other guy and his site, I've never heard of, but, if looks like it could be a similar situation. It's pretty much just a blog - whether or not it's run by people who actually know how to scout or have scouting experience and other such stuff that will lend credence to their opinions, I don't know, though, their affiliation with Baseball Prospectus at least makes it appear as though they're a little more connected than the average set of fan bloggers.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 28, 2011, 02:48:44 PM
It's not necessarily an unfair question. I mean, most of the guys that write for hockeysfuture are fans that volunteer their time, have obvious biases and so on - they don't necessarily have a background in hockey or scouting - even enough knowledge of the intricacies of scouting to really give weight to their opinions.

The other guy and his site, I've never heard of, but, if looks like it could be a similar situation. It's pretty much just a blog - whether or not it's run by people who actually know how to scout or have scouting experience and other such stuff that will lend credence to their opinions, I don't know, though, their affiliation with Baseball Prospectus at least makes it appear as though they're a little more connected than the average set of fan bloggers.

If you don't want to take these rankings as the Bible, or you want to disagree with how the prospects were ranked, that's fine by me. But to completely disregard them just because the person who did them doesn't work for a CHL/AHL/NHL team seems silly.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Newbury on August 28, 2011, 03:29:51 PM
It's not necessarily an unfair question. I mean, most of the guys that write for hockeysfuture are fans that volunteer their time, have obvious biases and so on - they don't necessarily have a background in hockey or scouting - even enough knowledge of the intricacies of scouting to really give weight to their opinions.

I write for HF, and while none of the writers are "professional" many of them are actually quite connected and do more than just sit at their computer and write what they see/hear about prospects. I'm not sure about the Leafs writer, but from everything I've seen him post on the Staff board he seems to be pretty knowledgeable. It's also somewhat of a collaborative process. While he is the Leafs writer, there's also NCAA, QMJHL, OHL, etc. specific writers who are often given passes to attend games, conduct interviews and what not. Those people will often chime in on prospect rankings and what not. Sure, nobody there is a professional scout, but there's enough collaboration and time put into these rankings to assure that it's about as accurate as they can get it.

There's also no real biases or anything - you likely won't get selected to write for your favourite team, and any prospect ranking has to be approved by the rest of the staff.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Jacques Strap on August 28, 2011, 08:00:42 PM
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.


So I guess this means their opinion is pointless.

Furthermore, couldn't you essentially say the same thing about a guy like Darren Dreger or Bob McKenzie? If they are such great hockey analysts why aren't they working for a NHL team? Or for a comparison closer to the one you made, why isn't Kyle Woodlief of the Red Line Report a NHL scout?

I could, and would. Dreger and McKenzie are not paid to be player evaluators, they are paid to report sports news. If one of them says a trade is about to be made, I can take that to the bank, because being on the inside of front office stuff is what they do best. As far as evaluation.... well, they make pre-season picks every year, how often are they right, or even close?

These types of amateur player and team rankings are merely conversation starters for the dog days of summer. To be honest, I'd be far more interested in hearing what you had to say about specific players you've gone and seen play, than hearing debates about what one random amateur "ranked" them at vs. another.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: cw on August 28, 2011, 09:36:58 PM
If one person could really do it "all", NHL teams would only need one scout. Like everyone else, all one can do is collect a bunch of info/opinions & insert what they've seen of the various prospects into factoring their rankings.

I give McKenzie's opinion some weight because he does watch junior hockey, the WJCs and helps to prepare TSN's draft projections so he follows prospects year round and talks with a bunch of folks in-the-know.

Biggs not doing well with either ranking isn't the end of his NHL aspirations and doesn't guarantee the Leafs were wrong to draft him. But it's something that's notable in the back of my mind on how I might project his NHL future as he develops. Not having seen him play much, what else do we have except things like this, his scouting report, etc. Regardless, for me, the jury is out as I haven't seen him play enough to conclude one way or the other.

Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: moon111 on August 28, 2011, 10:14:26 PM
Attributes about Tyler Biggs are hard to find.  For one, he's a power-forward and those stats don't always show a positive attribute on a spreadsheet.  Another positive attribute with Tyler Biggs is his dad, Don Biggs, who was a career minor leaguer.  The guy is a very active hockey person and has been mentoring his son from squirt level.  I would suspect he's helped not only in his son's skill level, but character as well. 
TYLER BIGGS: "Right now my favorite Leaf is Dion Phaneuf. I love the way he plays."
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Jalili on August 29, 2011, 12:06:48 AM
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.


So I guess this means their opinion is pointless.

Furthermore, couldn't you essentially say the same thing about a guy like Darren Dreger or Bob McKenzie? If they are such great hockey analysts why aren't they working for a NHL team? Or for a comparison closer to the one you made, why isn't Kyle Woodlief of the Red Line Report a NHL scout?

I could, and would. Dreger and McKenzie are not paid to be player evaluators, they are paid to report sports news. If one of them says a trade is about to be made, I can take that to the bank, because being on the inside of front office stuff is what they do best. As far as evaluation.... well, they make pre-season picks every year, how often are they right, or even close?

These types of amateur player and team rankings are merely conversation starters for the dog days of summer. To be honest, I'd be far more interested in hearing what you had to say about specific players you've gone and seen play, than hearing debates about what one random amateur "ranked" them at vs. another.

With Dreger and McKenzie, it's not their player evaluations and opinions that are valued, it's the fact that they are probably well connected to scouts and CHL coaches and are privy to inside info.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: slapshot on September 14, 2011, 07:02:09 AM
My very unofficial rankings based on how I see their chances of securing a full-time job with the big club in the shortest period, along with draft position and future chance of securing a full-time position. Level of impact they will make is virtually impossible to know or rank at this point. I have left of anyone expected to have starting job pretty much guaranteed, like Reimer and Aulie.

1. Kadri
2. Frattin
3. Colbourne
4. Gardiner
5. Blacker
6. Scrivens
7. McKegg
8. Biggs
9. D'Amigo
10. Percy

Honorable mention, Rynnas, Mueller, Olden, Holzer, Ross
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Moot Point on September 14, 2011, 07:51:43 PM
With all the hype lately and from the rookie tournament, it seems as Frattin and Kadri could be ranked 1a and 1b.  Training camp should be fun this season.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on September 14, 2011, 08:15:02 PM
I might have thrown Devane and Heard in the HM category as well.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Dappleganger on September 14, 2011, 09:10:02 PM
I think I'd have Gardiner over Colbourne.

Frattin is looking juicy to me. I still think Kadri has what it takes.

We have a couple guys in the system that look like they can pan out, haven't been able to say that in awhile.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: caveman on September 14, 2011, 09:34:55 PM
Jussi is looking juicy. If Rynnas has the same hot start at camp that he did last year he could make them look at him for the big team.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Frank E on September 14, 2011, 09:41:07 PM
Frattin looks fantastic.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Bender on September 15, 2011, 11:56:46 AM
McKegg looking great too.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Sarge on September 15, 2011, 12:29:25 PM
I think I'd have Gardiner over Colbourne.


Clearly, my crusade of last year failed.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 15, 2011, 12:32:54 PM
I think I'd have Gardiner over Colbourne.


Clearly, my crusade of last year failed.

Seriously people. It's Koalburn.
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: Dappleganger on September 15, 2011, 12:44:48 PM
I think I'd have Gardiner over Colbourne.


Clearly, my crusade of last year failed.

Seriously people. It's Koalburn.

My bad.  :-[
Title: Re: A couple of prospects rankings
Post by: nutman on September 15, 2011, 01:11:27 PM
with all that talent almost ready, the guys on the big club will need to step it up to keep there jobs, you have to love it when your system starts to get very competitive all the way through it.