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Messages - Nik

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Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: Yesterday at 06:48:01 PM »
If you lump Conservatives and PPC together, you get about 39% of the vote. The liberal-leaning group more-or-less gets the rest. Still a fairly even split, surprisingly to me.

That's what it looks like now. The VBM should bring that number down slightly, closer to the 36% or so that's been the average for the right-leaning vote in the 7 elections since 2000. I guess that's fairly even but that's almost a 30 percent difference between your "left" and "right" in the country.

Obviously it's a little soon to get too into the weeds on the numbers but it looks like a fair number of voters stayed away in the election and what voter enthusiasm there was was stronger on the right than the left. Everyone's % was fairly consistent except the Greens and the PPC sort of swapped places from 2019. That maybe raises the question of to what extent the Green vote is "left" as opposed to just fringe but I think you'd need to see it happen at least twice to say it's a real trend.

General NHL News & Views / Re: 2021-2022 NHL Thread
« on: Yesterday at 02:38:42 PM »

I think it's really terrific how for years a player would get labelled selfish and not a team guy if he asked for too much money or celebrated a goal too much or read books or slept in or had a weird hair cut or wanted to wear an unconventional jersey number or had a beard or objected to being hazed but the second it's a good ol' boy making a decision that could quite literally harm his teammates the league is like "Well, what are you going to do? Personal choice is sacrosanct".

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: Yesterday at 02:23:51 PM »
I think its a bit of an embarrassment that the PPC got 800K votes but I really don't think they stole enough votes from the PCs to make a big difference in an election.

I've seen some people say how troubling it is that they got 5% of the vote or whatever but did anyone really doubt during the Harper years that at least around that percentage of the CPC base was effectively that extreme but just voting Conservative anyway?

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: Yesterday at 12:07:02 PM »
So we heard coming in that the PPC was going to split the conservative vote. Now that it's all said in done, do we think it really effected the outcome?

In a significant way, probably not. Maybe it winds up costing them a few seats but that's always impossible to tell.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: Yesterday at 12:05:30 PM »
There's at least one, maybe two generations of people for whom online voting would instantly mean elections could be "hacked" regardless of what safeguards are in place or verification systems are used. Just look at what we saw in the States with just some of the voting machines being computerized and what the nutjobs think that means.

Considering that those older voters tend to turnout in stronger numbers and would be least open to the idea...well, that's why we don't have it.

My understanding is that it is actually extremely difficult, maybe impossible, to implement online voting securely enough.  (I'm a prof in computer science -- I don't follow this topic at all, but some of my colleagues do.). There are a couple ways that it is different than something like online banking, which we all use regularly:

* voting should be anonymous -- no one should know how you vote.  but you aren't anonymous to your bank.  This makes it easiest to detect when things go wrong, prove that things have gone wrong, and fix them when they do.

* timing is crucial -- votes need to be counted by a certain day.  if there is some kind of attack that can only be resolved later, there is going to be a massive threat to democracy.  "getting your money back later" just might not be good enough

* getting the US election right, for example, is more important that just about anything to the right people.  The incentives for putting the right person in place are worth billions and billions of dollars. eg: a corporate or personal tax cut is easily worth 10s of billions to the right people.  This is worth much more than an electronic transfer gone wrong here or there. 

This article explains:

I will take your word on the technical aspects. My only experience with it is in Australia where voting is, or at least was, mandatory.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: Yesterday at 10:57:56 AM »
Annamie Paul got smoked in her own riding.

Yeah I'm just not sure who the Green's constituency is supposed to be in downtown Toronto. We don't have a lot of the "I'm for fiscally sound policy but I want my boat in a clean marina" sorts they do in Vancouver Island.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: Yesterday at 10:55:04 AM »
I don't think there's ever a perfect system, but I think a ranked ballot seems to make the most sense from what I've read. I was an advocate of PR, but busta's done a good job of explaining why I've gotten off that train.

It's definitely got some upsides but it would be hard to get away from the optics problem of the Liberals pushing for an electoral system that would probably help them the most.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Official Music Thread
« on: Yesterday at 10:53:51 AM »

Yeah, Snarks are good. You could also consider an Apple or Android gift certificate if he's got a phone/tablet to use on of the better tuning apps.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: Yesterday at 07:55:22 AM »
I think the only way we see change is when we get rid of first past the post and move to a form of Proportional Representation.  The NDP got more than twice the popular vote of the BQ and yet ended up with 5 less seats and the disparity is even more pronounced between the Libs and the PC

I suppose but when the issue of electoral reform was brought up in Trudeau's first term you had the Liberals advocating ranked choice, the NDP advocating PR and the Conservatives not interested in any change(and, indeed, they have never advocated for PR in the past). Not suprisingly, each party favours the system that benefits them the most.

So, sure, you'd have a Parliament that more accurately reflected the popular vote but considering that you've already pointed out that the BQ also would suffer under such a system you're essentially saying that your idea to solving Democracy in this country is implementing a system that the parties who won around 75% of the vote in the last few elections would almost certainly vote against.

That's before you even get into the plusses and minuses of some sort of PR system itself.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: September 20, 2021, 11:21:07 PM »

CBC calling a Liberal Minority. Looks like the CPC may eke out another plurality in the popular vote although after the mail-in votes are counted that may disappear.

I said it after last election, I'll say it now. I don't see a substantial change coming in Canadian politics until there's actual shifts in the parties and what they're selling and not just cosmetic changes in who's trying to sell it.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: September 20, 2021, 10:57:49 PM »

Seems like a legit possibility that we could end up with the exact same number of LPC and CPC members of Parliament. Which, you know, would be a pretty good sign of a cosmic sense of humour.

Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: 2021 Blue Jays General Discussion Thread
« on: September 20, 2021, 10:34:33 PM »

Ah shoot.

Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Federal Election 2019
« on: September 20, 2021, 10:27:48 PM »

CBC and CTV calling the election for the Liberals. Majority or minority still to be decided.

So, after all, I guess it made sense to use the 2019 thread.

General NHL News & Views / Re: 2021-2022 NHL Thread
« on: September 20, 2021, 01:54:52 PM »
That logo always reminded me of the coyote that spoke to homer when he was having his hot pepper vision.

Well, that's why I think it was always a legitimately cool logo. It was very authentic to that particular southwestern art style that the Simpsons probably took their inspiration from too.  It was weird and location-specific. It would be cool if more logos were like it.

General NHL News & Views / Re: 2021-2022 NHL Thread
« on: September 20, 2021, 12:20:34 PM »

I approve of this. If you're going to be goofy team in the middle of the desert, embrace it.

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