I think the most likely scenario is that Bozak and maybe Phaneuf are gone by the deadline, and Kessel stays around...
I'd be satisfied if moved Winnick (gone anyway) AND Phaneuf at the deadline. Have the Leafs really missed Phaneuf on their backend since he's been hurt? I don't think so. Both he and Franson aren't very mobile. Obviously, Rielly has played a lot better with increased ice-time, but I think both Gardiner and Holtzer are playing better as well. I don't think Granberg is ready, so I'd like to see MacWilliam replace him tonight. Percy is finally back from injury. Once he gets his game back up to snuff, I think he's the one that takes the next step to stick with the Leafs. That would set the left side with three young mobile defencemen. Now if that has some tough mobile guys on the right side to go with them. I don't mind Polak, but better in a lower pairing.
The Leafs actually have something like 10-11 less goals against them in the 12 games since Phaneuf's been out than in previous 12 with him. That might be partly schedule, partly Horachek factor, but I don't think it has made any significant difference.