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Messages - CarltonTheBear

#1
Quote from: cw on Yesterday at 01:11:32 PMI'm not sure he's ideal but I don't mind Holmberg either. I thought he took a step in the right direction last season. Flashed some versatility.

Holmberg to me is like the world's greatest 13th forward. I'm still not a big believer in him as a regular roster player though.
#2
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on Yesterday at 01:01:36 PMMarkstrom is a wildly inconsistent goaltender. His 21/22 season was very good but he has been looking shaky since then. He shows flashes of brilliance followed by just awful play. Getting him for 4 million a year makes him a little more attractive but I'm not sure he's taking this team from a below 500 team to a contender. I think a healthy roster will be the biggest reason for their improvement next season.

I mean, they went 52-22 in 22/23 with Vanecek in net

They also lost Dougie Hamilton 2 months into the season. Jack Hughes, who was at one point looking like a MVP candidate, got hurt and wasn't quite the same when he returned as he was still playing through a shoulder injury. With those two healthy, plus Markstrom in net (who despite a rather average looking 0.905 Sv% was ranked as one of the top goalies this season per some models) they're poised for a massive turnaround.

Keefe picked a good spot for his 2nd coaching gig. Heck if they compete for the Metro title like they were supposed to this season he'll probably get Jack Adams consideration.
#3
Quote from: cw on Yesterday at 12:21:02 PMI'd likely be very happy with that. I think that money could be better spent.
But they'd better have someone lined up to fill that role.
I'm not sure about Dewar for that.

I like Dewar in that spot. I always thought it was a little odd of the Leafs to give up a 4th rounder for him if they weren't going to play him in his natural position at 4C. Not that a 4th rounder is a high price to pay but it means a little more to the Leafs when we're already so devoid of draft picks. They also have Holmberg as a back-up. Ultimately if they did acquire someone else to push Dewar to the wing I wouldn't really bat an eye but I'd have him penciled in there to start, and reassess that later on.
#4
https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1803465764378235063

Man, Craig Conroy is really not good at this trade stuff.
#5
Quote from: cabber24 on Yesterday at 09:37:51 AMWhat a play by Tkachuk and what a terrible play OEL. OEL gave up on the play.

It looks like he may have thought the puck went in. Ultimately I don't think it would have changed anything even if he was engaged.
#6
Quote from: L K on June 18, 2024, 09:58:38 PMNone of our stars have done anything like what McDavid is doing.  8 points in his last 2 games in a Cup Finals. 

While I share all the same frustrations about our guys, I'm not sure anyone in any sport could do what McDavid is doing right now.
#7
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 03:49:18 PMThe part I'm not clear on is how?

Well simply put I don't think either would be that difficult to move. Both are legitimate full time NHLers any coach in hockey would trust putting on the ice and neither contracts both in terms of AAV or term are necessarily anchors. Their contracts would really only be seen as problematic on teams who have 4 forwards already taking up 53% of the salary cap next season.

Of the two Kampf is certainly a little more overpaid, I never liked his contract to begin with, but he's also a legitimately higher end 4C in the league. With the right bottom-6 configuration he'd do fine, that just isn't happening here with Reaves stapled onto his wing which basically negates all his 5-on-5 defensive value. I've already said this but I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Jersey came calling if he was made available due to the Keefe connection.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with Jarnkrok's contract really. Even just using his most recent point pace, which was a little lower than typical, a 3rd liner who can get 15 goals and 35 points while also providing above average defensive and penalty killing ability would almost certainly get more than $2.1mil this offseason. For example per the Daily Faceoff Jordan Martinook is currently projected to get a 2-year, $2.8mil AAV contract and they're pretty similar players I'd say. If for whatever reason the Leafs were forced to move him for cap relief you're more likely to get something in return than need to give up a sweetener.
#8
Quote from: herman on June 18, 2024, 08:51:44 AMMy shopping options for each
  • Matt Roy, Chris Tanev, Dylan DeMelo, Alex Carrier
  • I don't know, trade for Filip Gustavsson?
  • Elias Lindholm (probably overpay a bit) or trade nearly nothing for a William Karlsson cap dump
  • Michael Amadio, Sam Lafferty (lol), Kasperi Kapanen (lmao)

I actually think Gustavsson will be a sneaky good add for a team somewhere this season but I'm not sure it'll be the Leafs. Gus has openly said it himself that a big thing he needs to work on is his "mental mindset" to be a more consistent goalie. He seems to have a hard time digging himself out of the lows of a season. For obvious reasons don't know if Toronto is the best place to work on that sort of stuff.

One "cheap fast forward" I've had on my list is Brandon Duhaime. Former long-time linemate of Dewar with Minnesota (they were often referred to as Dewy 1 and Dewy 2 there), and the duo actually formed a line with Reaves for most of 22/23 after Reaves was traded there. He's basically a bigger/more physical version of Dewar while trading away a little offensive talent. But still very fast and has PK experience. I think he probably comes in a little more than I'd like to spend on a 4th liner especially with Reaves' contract on the books but still someone I could see Treliving going after, especially if Kampf is moved.
#9
We are so not ready for the 2.0 version of all this.
#10
How much money did Gustav Forsling cost himself by signing his extension with Florida in March as opposed to now? $5.75mil x 8 years was generally seen as a steal even then but he'd certainly get at least $10mil total more even with the Panthers-discount if he had waited.
#11
Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMI like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay).

The Daily Faceoff posted his projection at $5.5mil x 4 years, while the Athletic/Evolving Hockey put him at $6.1mil x 5 years. So I think $6mil x 6 years would certainly be on the high end of his offers considering he does have pretty limited offensive abilities. Especially as far as offers from serious/contending teams go (i.e. teams that aren't like San Jose or Chicago or Utah who are just looking to burn money).

Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMAnother option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

Yeah I've mentioned Arvidsson before as well. He could certainly fit that role too and honestly I'd probably prefer him over Perron since he's younger and faster. But Perron just makes a lot more sense due to the Berube connection. I think for either of them if you're going with a base salary of $1mil to make things work cap wise you need at least another $1-1.5mil in very easy to achieve bonuses (like 10GP) since other teams would likely offer that as guaranteed money. After that another $1mil or so in higher offensive targets like 15 goals or 40 points is what I'd be thinking.

Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMI wonder if Vegas would Nate-Schmidt us Karlsson...

Yeah I really don't know what I would expect from a Karlsson trade. Guys like Schmidt and Fleury were of course basically given away for free in order to clear salary for Vegas. I don't expect that to happen with Karlsson though but hey who knows.
#12
Enjoying Capfriendly's Armchair GM feature while I still can. This one was all about "can we afford to acquire William Karlsson from Vegas AND still address the D+G?". Honestly I thought the answer to this would be no and was pleasantly surprised:

Starting out by having to clear salary. That's Kampf and Jarnkrok. Kampf to me is generally a goner in any offseason projection. Jarnkrok is less of a necessity to move and this would all technically still be possible with him but it would make the max roster size 21 instead of 22 so I'll take the extra flexibility largely because his roster spot is also going to be replaced by a cheaper veteran who might fit the vibes of the 24/25 team better. These are cap dumps. Kampf I could see going to NJ to be reunited with Keefe as they look to be in need of a 4C. Jarnkrok could fit on a lot of teams. If we get some sort of pick or young minor leaguer back for them great, if not I'll accept just the cap space.

Next up of course is acquiring William Karlsson. He's 31-years old, has a $5.9mil cap hit for the next 3 seasons. Ticks a lot of boxes as something we need (two-way centre, can win face-offs, kill penalties, fast, Swedish). Vegas has Eichel and Hertl occupying their top-2 centre spots though and with other needs Karlsson at $5.9mil is just a luxury they can't afford right now. This is a stereotypical fan trade offer but I would assume Liljegren and possibly Robertson as well would be parts of this trade. Lily in particular I could see fitting well with Vegas as they actually have a bit of a need at RHD at the moment. Other pieces would be required as well for sure but I doubt anything major (by that I mean Cowan, Minten, or maybe even another 1st as that's basically what Lily represents but if push came to shove and a 1st was needed I'd probably still pull the trigger) since we are talking about a non-elite forward on the wrong side of 30 who Vegas is looking to move for cap space. So that's that.

Next up some signings. I think Karlsson would keep us out of the hunt for Montour or Skjei, which is actually fine because I think I've actually landed on Roy and one of Tanev or Zadorov being my preferred D targets on July 1st. I give Roy $6mil for 6 years, and Tanev $4.5mil for 3 years. Maybe even add a 4th year to Tanev if that's necessary, somewhat decent chance he'd be a LTIR candidate at that point anyway. Stolarz is my go to goalie option now and he's at $3.25mil here. Dewar is the lone RFA re-signed at $950k.

Things are tight for cap space right now but we still need an additional forward. I think getting creative with David Perron on a 35+ performance bonus deal is the best way to squeeze a quality middle-6 winger onto the team, even if it comes at a price in 25/26 with the carryover bonus. I have Perron signing for just $1mil, with two sets of bonuses (one easy to achieve and another that's a little more challenging) that would bring his total hit to about $3-3.5mil if hit.

That leaves us with a roster that looks like this:

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Karlsson-Marner
Cowan-Tavares-Perron
Holmberg-Dewar-Reaves

Rielly-Roy
McCabe-Tanev
Benoit-Timmins

Woll
Stolarz

With that there would still be $1.7mil left over, enough for 2 additional roster players who would hopefully both be eligible to go up and down with the Marlies in order to bank cap space throughout the season for a possible deadline add somewhere. I would be perfectly fine with bringing Klingberg back either on a bury-able contract or possibly even PTO in order to compete with Timmins for the final D spot at training camp.
#13
Playing 3rd pairing sheltered minutes on the Carolina Hurricanes alongside a top pairing caliber defenceman seems like a pretty plum gig. I think Chatfield's been getting a tad overhyped in some places.
#14
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 12:45:45 PMhttps://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1801304022059544833

Crazy to think he was hired by the team way back in 2018. Smart guy, but even before Treliving was hired it felt like his role in hockey ops was starting to get reduced so this isn't all that surprising or noteworthy even.
#15
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 10:49:32 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 13, 2024, 09:49:27 AMJumping on the Pageau train with me?

Is there a younger version? I was really hoping Jarnkrok had some actual chops there, but sadly no.

No, although I will say I expected Pageau to be a little older than he actually is (turns 32 this November). That's up there, but not exactly ancient. edit: to hammer this point in he's actually younger than Jarnkrok.

If you want an even crazier idea, Montreal might be looking to unload Mitch's old centre from his London Knights days...