Author Topic: Federal Election 2019  (Read 5772 times)

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Offline Nik

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #75 on: July 24, 2020, 09:15:03 PM »

I'm not sure how big a deal a plurality of the popular vote is when it barely shifted from the previous election and is still one of the worst Conservative showings in modern electoral history(only 2015 and 2004 were worse). Even the 1993 wipeout of the Conservatives saw the PC's + Reform get a higher % of the vote than Scheer won.
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Offline Bates

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #76 on: July 24, 2020, 09:29:46 PM »

I'm not sure how big a deal a plurality of the popular vote is when it barely shifted from the previous election and is still one of the worst Conservative showings in modern electoral history(only 2015 and 2004 were worse). Even the 1993 wipeout of the Conservatives saw the PC's + Reform get a higher % of the vote than Scheer won.

Its not that big of a deal but it just kinda shows that outside of Toronto and Que not a lot of hatred for Scheer or the Conservatives.  Just as much disgust for Trudeau in the rest of the Country. FTR I am not a Scheer fan and had much more hope for Trudeau.

Offline Nik

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #77 on: July 24, 2020, 09:50:21 PM »
Its not that big of a deal but it just kinda shows that outside of Toronto and Que not a lot of hatred for Scheer or the Conservatives. 

Well, outside of Quebec the places where the Conservatives did the worst is actually Atlantic Canada and the Territories so they're not super popular in other areas of the Country.

Regardless I wouldn't necessarily use vote share to determine a level of "hatred" for a party or politician even if LHF isn't a big Scheer fan. As Busta notes, this was an election where a lot of people felt that neither party gave them a good option and I think a lot of Conservative/Liberal votes came in spite of the leaders rather than because of them. Whatever's going on in the prairie provinces, which is really the only cause for Scheer's slim plurarity, probably can't be attributed to people not liking Trudeau personally.

Unlike 2015 this wasn't a case of an unpopular Prime Minister losing to a new and exciting young upstart. This was a flagging PM with a bunch of baggage and the Conservatives still had one of their worst showings in history. If you want to say that's not a Scheer problem I'm not sure what you're left with outside of just most of Canada not being receptive to right wing politics in general.
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Offline Nik

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #78 on: July 24, 2020, 10:11:26 PM »

Also, I'm not sure why Toronto gets singled out. The Conservatives didn't win anything in Vancouver either. Likewise, they didn't win in Winnipeg or Halifax. In fact, outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, winning a seat in Thornhill and Markham is probably the closest thing the Conservatives had to doing well in a major city.

Whatever the problem is electorally for the Conservatives, it starts in cities.
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Offline Bates

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #79 on: July 24, 2020, 10:20:06 PM »

Also, I'm not sure why Toronto gets singled out. The Conservatives didn't win anything in Vancouver either. Likewise, they didn't win in Winnipeg or Halifax. In fact, outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, winning a seat in Thornhill and Markham is probably the closest thing the Conservatives had to doing well in a major city.

Whatever the problem is electorally for the Conservatives, it starts in cities.

Using what most people consider Vancouver, GVR, the Conservatives have 10 seats. The Liberals 11.

Offline Nik

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #80 on: July 24, 2020, 10:36:36 PM »
Using what most people consider Vancouver, GVR, the Conservatives have 10 seats. The Liberals 11.

With all of those seats outside of the Metro area, unless I'm mistaken.
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Offline Bates

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #81 on: July 24, 2020, 10:47:28 PM »
Using what most people consider Vancouver, GVR, the Conservatives have 10 seats. The Liberals 11.

With all of those seats outside of the Metro area, unless I'm mistaken.

There are only 6 actual Vancouver ridings. But in reality everyone counts Vancouver as The Lower Mainland.

Offline Nik

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #82 on: July 24, 2020, 10:55:59 PM »
There are only 6 actual Vancouver ridings. But in reality everyone counts Vancouver as The Lower Mainland.

Sure, and the Conservatives won some seats in what some people consider the GTA or what have you. Still, in actual cities they can't seem to win seats. Considering real estate prices in those places, it can't be attributed to typical economic patterns of voters either.
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Offline Hobbes

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #83 on: July 26, 2020, 12:51:28 PM »
There are only 6 actual Vancouver ridings. But in reality everyone counts Vancouver as The Lower Mainland.

Sure, and the Conservatives won some seats in what some people consider the GTA or what have you. Still, in actual cities they can't seem to win seats. Considering real estate prices in those places, it can't be attributed to typical economic patterns of voters either.

I tend to think it's because fiscal conservatism and social conservatism have tended to go hand in hand and over the years the electorate has shifted from being 80% WASP looking back fondly on the "good ol' days" of white privilege while at the same time the NDP rose on the fiscal liberalism side of things allowing the Liberal party to morph into a middle-of-the-road fiscal platform while retaining a leftist social position.

The C/PC side has lagged terribly on women's rights, racial issues, LGBTQ issues, etc and that doesn't play well to our increasingly diverse and accepting National culture.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline Frank E

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #84 on: July 30, 2020, 09:52:31 AM »

Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #85 on: July 30, 2020, 01:05:09 PM »
The Conservatives dropping the ball on the last election or the Conservatives continuing to drop the ball has little to do with the investigation into Morneau, the Liberals and WE.

I generally lean Conservative but  I have not been impressed by the Conservatives decisions to have their leaders be Scheer or for that matter, Doug Ford. The Conservative shortcomings doesn't mean we should be okay with the Liberal's back door dealings. Just because all the parties do it, doesn't mean it should be ok

Offline Nik

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #86 on: July 30, 2020, 02:15:39 PM »
The Conservatives dropping the ball on the last election or the Conservatives continuing to drop the ball has little to do with the investigation into Morneau, the Liberals and WE.

I generally lean Conservative but  I have not been impressed by the Conservatives decisions to have their leaders be Scheer or for that matter, Doug Ford. The Conservative shortcomings doesn't mean we should be okay with the Liberal's back door dealings. Just because all the parties do it, doesn't mean it should be ok

But I think that's why if the messaging coming out of this was "This is why we need stricter ethical controls in Parliament" or "This is why we need to eliminate even the appearance of conflict in the relationships between money and power" there would be more of an impact then just "This is why the Liberals are bad and Trudeau/Morneau should resign". Especially right now when most people are generally positive on the job those two are doing during a very difficult time.

It's not so much about being ok with it, I'd burn the entire system down if it were up to me, but if it's not a point of demarcation between the parties it's not going to have much punch politically.
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Offline Nik

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #87 on: August 23, 2020, 09:06:29 PM »
Yeah, I really want to put this country's economic recovery in the hands of a party who can't figure out how to have a leadership vote.
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Offline .

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #88 on: August 23, 2020, 10:25:30 PM »
Hmm, a party and leader that preaches against privilege while seemingly immune from the same ethical standards, vs a party that's internally unaligned and incompetent.

Kang or Kodos indeed.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Federal Election 2019
« Reply #89 on: August 24, 2020, 09:11:47 AM »
Thoughts on O'Toole? He seems popular in the West but those aren't exactly the votes the CPC needs to get right now are they? MacKay seemed like a guy who could get more Ontarians to vote that way. I'm not super psyched that he seems aligned with the whole Post Millennial/True North/Rebel crowed.