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Messages - Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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I like watching them come together (or not) during the season. 

Then they re-set the rules and skillz get dunked and then Love Lies Bleeding On the Floor.

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Auston Matthews
« on: June 10, 2021, 02:06:15 PM »
Just a bonkers season for him. Such a shame the wrist injury prevented him from chasing the 50 goal mark. I really think he gets there if he was healthy.

Without the wrist injury, I think he gets there pretty easily. There's a good chance he ends up at or better than a goal/game - he was there pre-injury (18 in 18) and in the stretch post injury before the final few games of the season (19 in 19). Outside of the stretch of injured games, he only went consecutive games without scoring twice and never went consecutive games without a point. That's insane consistency.

Too, consider that the coaches decided to make sure he never scored on the PP, just to make sure that McDavid's confidence wasn't entirely crushed.

Much-maligned Martin Marincin makes masterful move.

He was better than he got credit for.

General NHL News & Views / Re: NHL Awards Discussion
« on: June 09, 2021, 10:42:41 PM »
You know ... The force that takes our playoff expectations for Marner and drives them six feet underground.

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After the Leafs got bounced by Washington I posted a thread about how the Andersen trade was a bad one and they probably should have stuck with Bernier.

Nice of you all to catch up.
I mean, certainly, I could see bringing him back just to give him a second crack at identifying Nelson Mandela.

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We really want Jonathan Bernier back?  Really?

If you can get Andersen back at a lower cost (probably unlikely) wouldn't he be rather easily the best option available to run i this split system?

So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

Goal 1 G7 may have been just an unfortunate goal to many teams in many circumstances, but to a team that was teetering on the edge of blowing a series lead again?  It may not be provable, but it is plausible that that particular goal had an outsized impact on a mentally fragile group.

It was well into the second period of the third straight game where the team had come out flat. If that's what shook up a "mentally fragile" group then, again, there are much much bigger problems than a goalie who occasionally let in a theoretically stoppable goal.

It was more like the coup de grace ... and you got that right, he wasn't their main problem.

Unrelated question for you analytics guys: do any of the advanced predictive stats adjust for the differences in reffing in the playoffs?

It's still mostly the shooting just like it was last year, it just is. I get the need for a timely save but this is a 5 or 7 game series and if you're forced to make every timely save and your team gives you no run support and therefore no margin of error (and you ignore goals that should've gone in but were saved) then I'm not really sure what more there is to do. Put the puck in the net just one more time than they did in Game 5 & 6 and this conversation doesn't even happen.

Yeah, also it defines "can't make the big save" as "can't make every single big save". I'm pretty sure Campbell did, in fact, make some big saves. The standard here isn't a particularly fair one and doesn't legitimately contrast Campbell to lots and lots of goalies who have won playoff series being less good than he was. The difference between goalies who win series and goalies who don't is not whether or not they ever let in goalies that theoretically could have been stopped.

Sure, it's not "the" difference but it is "a" difference.  And I don't think we can just dismiss the idea that a bad goal at a particular time in a game/series doesn't have a magnified impact on a particular team under a given circumstance.  Goal 1 G7 may have been just an unfortunate goal to many teams in many circumstances, but to a team that was teetering on the edge of blowing a series lead again?  It may not be provable, but it is plausible that that particular goal had an outsized impact on a mentally fragile group.

Campbell is the only reason games 5/6 got to OT when the skaters didn't show up, when the series should've been properly finished in Game 5 period 1+2. A 0.932 sv pct is plenty sufficient. 1 goal from your 25min first line is the difference maker in the wrong direction.

On the face of it, sure.  Against a popgun offense?  I think it doesn't tell the whole story.

We can disagree about where to dump the biggest pile of blame but my basic point was that Campbell was no better than Andersen in the end, the Andersen who is so much maligned by a few posters here, and failed in just the same way that Andersen did.

IMO the Leafs need an upgrade in goal.  Andersen hasn't gotten it done, and I don't have faith that Campbell is the answer either.  I fully realize how problematic that wish is.  Seems like a certain Vezina-winning goalie is about to lose 4 in a row after winning 4 in a row ... so yeah it's a bit of a roulette wheel.

herman, good analysis.  I don't agree with your assessment of Campbell, however.  Aside from a couple of periods where the Leafs just let MTL play shooting gallery and he was terrific, he failed in exactly the same way Andersen did: bad goals at critical times.  Campbell has seemed to somehow escape blame for the horrible GWG in G1, and the first goal in G7 was just as bad as any Andersen G7 flop.

The Leafs blew the series for many reasons, one of which was that our goalie gave up bad goals when games were on the line and theirs didn't.

General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2021-2022: Catharsis
« on: June 06, 2021, 03:22:31 PM »

I agree with you that would probably be the smarter thing for Buffalo to do, but it's not like the Sabres have a long history of making the right decisions. Selling fans on another rebuild after 10 straight years of missing the playoffs would be pretty tough, and I can see ownership being tempted to solve this Eichel problem by replacing him with another young, legit top tier talent in the league. And if they go that route then I don't think they're going to find anyone available even nearly as good as Marner (if Mitch was available, which he probably isn't). They also might not mind the slightly higher AAV since it also comes at a drastically reduced salary (Eichel gets paid $10mil in each of his next 5 years, while Marner gets paid just $24.8mil total in the next 4 years if the Leafs take his next signing bonus).

Your point about the real dollars owed is well taken but I think you always have to be careful about "Well, this team is stupid so they may do dumb things". I get it, and I rule it out, but I think the bad decisions most teams make are defensible decisions that just don't work out.

And with regards to "selling fans" on a move...I mean, I don't think there are a lot of Sabres fans out there labouring under the perception that whatever happens with them isn't effectively already a rebuild. Inserting Marner in Eichel's place doesn't make that any less true.

Nik you make a good point but I offer a friendly edit: delete the the final part of your last sentence beginning with the word "labouring."

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Resigning Zach Hyman?
« on: June 05, 2021, 12:09:00 PM »

Honestly, anything over 3.5 or thereabouts and I think you're better served going onto the free agent market and seeing if you can find someone who can do roughly the same job or at least be a different kind of valuable third wheel.

I agree with this. I like Hyman a lot but not at 5 million.

I'd do 3.5 for 4 years.
Agree x2. Love Hyman but not that much. If it was even possible to resign Foligno, I'd take him at 3 before Hyman at 5.

I also Agree. Hyman has probably peaked.  Wayne Simmonds is a perfect example,  when he was Hymans age he was coming off a 31 goal season.  He had one more good season then the bottom fell out
Yup injuries caught up with him. Hyman said in his presser that he was totally healthy for the playoffs so I'm taking him at face value. He looked very slow to me, by his standards, out there against Montreal.

Yeah, he was slow in the playoffs.  I agree too, like him a lot but they can assign Galchenyuk to that role is need be.

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