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I'm leaning a little more in the "got worse". A couple of our good PKers are gone, the goaltending is still a question mark, and we still don't know what they're going to have to pay for Engvall, right?
There's a couple other guys on the roster who should be able to make up most of the PK issues and, overall, I can't see the team's goaltending performing worse than they did last season (they might not be much better, but, last season, the Leafs had a putrid .899 Sv%). Engvall's contract doesn't really impact the current talent level on the roster, either.
On the flipside, the 4th line should be a little less ineffective, they get a full season of Giordano, and hopefully, some progression from the younger guys on the roster. All of it together, to me, feels like it balances everything out.
I think this is where we hope that a couple of our Marlies can fill out the roster. Really hoping this is Robertson's year and maybe Steeves or Anderson.
The primary reason to be critical of Dubas is also the most obvious one: his teams haven't delivered anything when it counts the most.
I would hope that everyone here agrees that if it happens again this year he's turfed.
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Firing Dubas for the team not winning playoff rounds would be the kind of reactionary mistake the Leafs used to make in the 80s. The GM's contribution is to put the best roster together he can. Unless the new guy can guarantee playoff success, which nobody can, that's a bad metric to replace your GM on.
Guys like Tyler Motte or Zach Aston-Reese would probably be the ideal fit for the 4LW spot, although they both might come at a higher cap hit than the Leafs could afford. Internally that could be a spot for Pontus Holmberg, who might be able to skip the AHL, or someone like Steeves. Joey Anderson could be a candidate too but with him and NAK both being righties one of them would need to switch sides and it's tough to say if that's something that would be best for either of them.
The opening higher in the line-up is a little trickier. Danton Heinen and Sonny Milano probably top my list now of guys to try and get on show-me deals but they're both lefties. Evan Rodrigues could be another option if they can't find a way to make those two work, or even a candidate to take the 3C spot if that opens up.
Ryan Strome #NHLducks 5 years x $5 million.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) July 14, 2022
Jeeze, that scared me for a second.
Is Dylan’ really an upgrade on Kerfoot?
Samsonov did put up a respectable .912 SV% in the playoff this year. I think Samsonov hung out with Kuznetsov a lot. Maybe he can better focus away from the coke heads? Not sure what the reputation is within our roster for drug use.
I like it. Murray/Samsonov isn't a world beater or anything but as it goes there are reasons to be optimistic about both of them.
Hearing rumblings of a stomach to toilet evacuation. Both sides are very close.
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2022/07/12/first-reactions-kyle-dubas-takes-a-potentially-make-or-break-risk-in-betting-on-matt-murray/Quote2. Either Kyle Dubas has total, unbreakable faith in Matt Murray, or he does not feel his job is on the line. What I think is most interesting about this deal is how it looks from Dubas’ vantage point. Leafs fans on social media who are okay with the deal generally went with the line, “Well, I’d rather give Murray 2 x $4.688M than Campbell 5 x $5M.” The implication here is that the latter is a long-term deal that may age very poorly for a goalie in his 30s like Campbell.
That would be one of the only rationales for this move. What is unique is that the rationale, “Don’t give out a long-term deal that may age poorly,” is not typically a consideration for most NHL GMs, who operate in short-term windows in which their main concern is saving their own jobs. Typically, a GM in Kyle Dubas’ position, with a win-now team and an ostensibly warm seat beneath him, would throw five or six years at Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper and say, “It’ll probably be terrible in 2027, but we need to win in 2023 or else my job is gone, so it makes sense now. When it’s bad, it’ll probably be someone else’s problem.”
He goes on to make note that Matthews and Nylander contracts are up for renewed numbers in 2 seasons as well, so locking into an older, also creaky goalie at 5+ is no bueno.
I’m largely where HS and busta is on this. Murray is their best option today given that all non-Kuemper options are term-heavy, or significantly less proven. Generally why I would’ve been okay keeping Mrazek is he is the cheapest bad option (who might have bounced back — couldn’t have been worse), but if the coaching staff had no confidence in him and he subsequently had no confidence either, everybody is hooped.
Murray comes with a similar narrative to when Campbell first arrived (except without the shelter of an incumbent), but higher pedigree of achievement, and we already have his goalie whisperer on staff who isn’t extremely problematic. Dubas is banking on familiarity and trust, and maybe the refreshing change of scenery from the moribund sens will inspire a return to form.
Not strictly related to the goalie issue, but Matthews and Nylander are not simply up in two years. I think it is more complicated by the fact that both Matthews and Marner have full NMC's that kick in next July 1st. The team loses all control over those two in just one year. The Leafs need to be sure of where they stand and what comes next by next year's draft. After that, they lose any control that they may have had.