https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2022/07/12/first-reactions-kyle-dubas-takes-a-potentially-make-or-break-risk-in-betting-on-matt-murray/
2. Either Kyle Dubas has total, unbreakable faith in Matt Murray, or he does not feel his job is on the line. What I think is most interesting about this deal is how it looks from Dubas’ vantage point. Leafs fans on social media who are okay with the deal generally went with the line, “Well, I’d rather give Murray 2 x $4.688M than Campbell 5 x $5M.” The implication here is that the latter is a long-term deal that may age very poorly for a goalie in his 30s like Campbell.
That would be one of the only rationales for this move. What is unique is that the rationale, “Don’t give out a long-term deal that may age poorly,” is not typically a consideration for most NHL GMs, who operate in short-term windows in which their main concern is saving their own jobs. Typically, a GM in Kyle Dubas’ position, with a win-now team and an ostensibly warm seat beneath him, would throw five or six years at Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper and say, “It’ll probably be terrible in 2027, but we need to win in 2023 or else my job is gone, so it makes sense now. When it’s bad, it’ll probably be someone else’s problem.”
He goes on to make note that Matthews and Nylander contracts are up for renewed numbers in 2 seasons as well, so locking into an older, also creaky goalie at 5+ is no bueno.
I’m largely where HS and busta is on this. Murray is their best option today given that all non-Kuemper options are term-heavy, or significantly less proven. Generally why I would’ve been okay keeping Mrazek is he is the cheapest bad option (who might have bounced back — couldn’t have been worse), but if the coaching staff had no confidence in him and he subsequently had no confidence either, everybody is hooped.
Murray comes with a similar narrative to when Campbell first arrived (except without the shelter of an incumbent), but higher pedigree of achievement, and we already have his goalie whisperer on staff who isn’t extremely problematic. Dubas is banking on familiarity and trust, and maybe the refreshing change of scenery from the moribund sens will inspire a return to form.
Not strictly related to the goalie issue, but Matthews and Nylander are not simply up in two years. I think it is more complicated by the fact that both Matthews and Marner have full NMC's that kick in next July 1st. The team loses all control over those two in just one year. The Leafs need to be sure of where they stand and what comes next by next year's draft. After that, they lose any control that they may have had.
The reason we are where we are is not just on Dubas — it's a management-wide failure to identify, draft, and develop goalies internally.
That said, I don't get the take from MLHS quoted above, that Dubas must think his job isn't on the line. If Murray is a dud, the only thing that will save Dubas is if whoever is the backup takes the team beyond the first round. It's inconceivable that Dubas could survive another 1 and out.