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Messages - Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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1
CHL & NCAA Hockey / Re: 2018 World Junior Allegations
« on: July 20, 2022, 09:45:17 AM »
I say this with respect and as a Yank living in a very shaky glass house but perhaps Canada should de-emphasize hockey as a pillar of its culture.

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2
I'm leaning a little more in the "got worse".  A couple of our good PKers are gone, the goaltending is still a question mark, and we still don't know what they're going to have to pay for Engvall, right?

There's a couple other guys on the roster who should be able to make up most of the PK issues and, overall, I can't see the team's goaltending performing worse than they did last season (they might not be much better, but, last season, the Leafs had a putrid .899 Sv%). Engvall's contract doesn't really impact the current talent level on the roster, either.

On the flipside, the 4th line should be a little less ineffective, they get a full season of Giordano, and hopefully, some progression from the younger guys on the roster. All of it together, to me, feels like it balances everything out.

I think this is where we hope that a couple of our Marlies can fill out the roster. Really hoping this is Robertson's year and maybe Steeves or Anderson.

I'm with you but I have never been excited by Robertson.  I hope I'm wrong.  Seems to me the door's wide open for him.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2022 NHL Draft Discussion
« on: July 15, 2022, 01:39:09 PM »
The primary reason to be critical of Dubas is also the most obvious one: his teams haven't delivered anything when it counts the most.

I would hope that everyone here agrees that if it happens again this year he's turfed.

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Firing Dubas for the team not winning playoff rounds would be the kind of reactionary mistake the Leafs used to make in the 80s. The GM's contribution is to put the best roster together he can. Unless the new guy can guarantee playoff success, which nobody can, that's a bad metric to replace your GM on.

Uhhh, OK got it.

By your standard GMs would have jobs for life ... certainly every last one would say "I am putting together the best roster I can."  And I for one wouldn't doubt them.  Never heard of a GM sabotaging his own team.

4
Guys like Tyler Motte or Zach Aston-Reese would probably be the ideal fit for the 4LW spot, although they both might come at a higher cap hit than the Leafs could afford. Internally that could be a spot for Pontus Holmberg, who might be able to skip the AHL, or someone like Steeves. Joey Anderson could be a candidate too but with him and NAK both being righties one of them would need to switch sides and it's tough to say if that's something that would be best for either of them.

The opening higher in the line-up is a little trickier. Danton Heinen and Sonny Milano probably top my list now of guys to try and get on show-me deals but they're both lefties. Evan Rodrigues could be another option if they can't find a way to make those two work, or even a candidate to take the 3C spot if that opens up.

To me, the biggest thing that needs to happen with the top 2 lines is get Tavares to the wing.  Some kind of trade involving Kerfoot + assets to get a reasonable 2C?  Ooof, this is where our lack of center depth is a killer.

5
NHL Transactions / Re: 2022-2023 NHL trades and signings
« on: July 13, 2022, 11:26:35 PM »
Good Lord — Vegas signed Hutchinson?  Why wasn't I informed of this?

6
NHL Transactions / Re: 2022-2023 NHL trades and signings
« on: July 13, 2022, 11:24:51 PM »

Jeeze, that scared me for a second.

Is Dylan’ really an upgrade on Kerfoot?

Of course he is.  The guy won the Freaking Nobel Prize of Freaking Literature.

Although he shouldn't have.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Leafs bring back Malgin
« on: July 13, 2022, 04:53:38 PM »
Pens snag Malkin, we snag Malgin.

8
Samsonov did put up a respectable .912 SV% in the playoff this year.  I think Samsonov hung out with Kuznetsov a lot.  Maybe he can better focus away from the coke heads?  Not sure what the reputation is within our roster for drug use.

The question is, has he served in Putin's Army of Liberation yet and can we confirm that he is (or is not) physically in North America?  :P

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]
« on: July 13, 2022, 02:31:36 PM »
Yeah, past performance is not a guarantee of future results (so says my mutual fund, and boy were they ever right). 

10
NHL Transactions / Re: 2022-2023 NHL trades and signings
« on: July 13, 2022, 01:27:01 PM »
Good for Soup.

11

I like it. Murray/Samsonov isn't a world beater or anything but as it goes there are reasons to be optimistic about both of them.

Yup.  This takes a bit of the edge off of the Murray signing.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: July 13, 2022, 09:13:39 AM »
Hearing rumblings of a stomach to toilet evacuation. Both sides are very close.


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13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]
« on: July 12, 2022, 04:52:22 PM »
L K's analysis is pretty sober, and pretty accurate.

This is going to be a watershed year for this team.  Either they break through and make a genuine run at a championship, or I can see the whole thing imploding, and not just in the front office.

Like Frank says, having your Cup hopes hang on a reclamation project in goal is not something they're going to teach in future Sports Management courses.  It can happen — Tim Thomas was a prior example IMO — but sheesh it's shaky.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]
« on: July 12, 2022, 12:04:40 PM »
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2022/07/12/first-reactions-kyle-dubas-takes-a-potentially-make-or-break-risk-in-betting-on-matt-murray/

Quote
2. Either Kyle Dubas has total, unbreakable faith in Matt Murray, or he does not feel his job is on the line. What I think is most interesting about this deal is how it looks from Dubas’ vantage point. Leafs fans on social media who are okay with the deal generally went with the line, “Well, I’d rather give Murray 2 x $4.688M than Campbell 5 x $5M.” The implication here is that the latter is a long-term deal that may age very poorly for a goalie in his 30s like Campbell.

That would be one of the only rationales for this move. What is unique is that the rationale, “Don’t give out a long-term deal that may age poorly,” is not typically a consideration for most NHL GMs, who operate in short-term windows in which their main concern is saving their own jobs. Typically, a GM in Kyle Dubas’ position, with a win-now team and an ostensibly warm seat beneath him, would throw five or six years at Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper and say, “It’ll probably be terrible in 2027, but we need to win in 2023 or else my job is gone, so it makes sense now. When it’s bad, it’ll probably be someone else’s problem.”

He goes on to make note that Matthews and Nylander contracts are up for renewed numbers in 2 seasons as well, so locking into an older, also creaky goalie at 5+ is no bueno.

I’m largely where HS and busta is on this. Murray is their best option today given that all non-Kuemper options are term-heavy, or significantly less proven. Generally why I would’ve been okay keeping Mrazek is he is the cheapest bad option (who might have bounced back — couldn’t have been worse), but if the coaching staff had no confidence in him and he subsequently had no confidence either, everybody is hooped.

Murray comes with a similar narrative to when Campbell first arrived (except without the shelter of an incumbent), but higher pedigree of achievement, and we already have his goalie whisperer on staff who isn’t extremely problematic. Dubas is banking on familiarity and trust, and maybe the refreshing change of scenery from the moribund sens will inspire a return to form.

Not strictly related to the goalie issue, but Matthews and Nylander are not simply up in two years. I think it is more complicated by the fact that both Matthews and Marner have full NMC's that kick in next July 1st. The team loses all control over those two in just one year. The Leafs need to be sure of where they stand and what comes next by next year's draft. After that, they lose any control that they may have had.

The reason we are where we are is not just on Dubas — it's a management-wide failure to identify, draft, and develop goalies internally.

That said, I don't get the take from MLHS quoted above, that Dubas must think his job isn't on the line.  If Murray is a dud, the only thing that will save Dubas is if whoever is the backup takes the team beyond the first round.  It's inconceivable that Dubas could survive another 1 and out.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs and sens talking about Murray
« on: July 11, 2022, 10:04:06 PM »


Game has sucked for the last 3 years


MLHS had a kind of "let me talk myself into thinking getting Murray sis a good thing" up earlier today.  It wasn't their best analysis but they did make the point that he's had stretches in the last couple of years that were very, very good.  So it hasn't been a freefall plunge, entirely.


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