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Messages - cabber24

#1
Filip Gustavsson would be awesome. I thought he was going to go off last year and ended up having a horrible start and splitting time with Fleury. He would be a cheaper trade target than Saros or Ullmark.
#2
Quote from: Frank E on June 21, 2024, 09:07:07 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 21, 2024, 08:46:32 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 21, 2024, 07:36:07 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 20, 2024, 06:16:03 PMI did think Columbus was plausible until I heard they wanted to cut payroll... Also I'd be reticent to take on Laine for our first even with retention. He's a reclamation project like PLD to some extent now.

Also, if Columbus were to acquire Marner, I have to imagine part of the reason would be to play him with Laine to try to improve his value. A divorce there feel inevitable, and I know they're exploring that possibility this off-season, but between his contract, the inconsistent performances, and his enrollment in the player assistance program, his value is at rock bottom.

I also very much doubt that they would move Werenski in a deal like this as it'd very much be a two steps forward one step back sorta thing for them. If a Marner to Columbus trade were to happen, and again I'm not holding my breathe or anything, it would be a more futures (and cap space) heavy return surrounding at least 1 (but ideally two) of Kent Johnson, David Jiricek, and their 4th overall pick.

How about Boone Jenner?
Someone has to play centre in CLB. Any team would be lucky to have him on his current contract.
#3
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 01:18:29 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 10:30:18 AMI'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.
What are you guys talking about? MM 10.9 + TB 5.5 = $16.4M.

Bertuzzi is not getting $8.2M.
#4
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 11:34:46 AM
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 09:36:12 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 09:03:09 AM
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 18, 2024, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 18, 2024, 03:20:29 PMOnly one more year of Tavares's $11M cap hit though. So that percentage will drop.

Keep Marner and figure out how/if to retain Tavares next year.
I put the math above it's still too much of a percentage of the cap with the core's raises and a Tavares drop.

When Tavares contract drops off, if they've re-signed Marner for Nylander-esque dollars, I don't think they're that much out of alignment with other contenders. Because all three deals are recent, there will be some sawtooth effect where they'll be higher in the near term and lower as the contracts age and other team have to sign their stars.

To state simply: I wonder about going from core 4 to core 2. If not Marner, where is his core 3 replacement coming from? It sure gives me some pause.

Well that's exactly it. Him walking for nothing is a disaster scenario and one that should obviously be avoided, but I also think a long protracted battle for $13M on term is going to alienate a lot of this fanbase and I think rightfully so after what we've witnessed since 2016 and may not move them any closer to a contender. Even once Tavares comes down/off the books we don't really have any other pieces to properly augment the roster, so while it's nice to have a 95pt regular season winger I think if none of the core 4 can be traded we will still be in groundhog day unless Woll turns into the second coming of Turk Broda.

None of the core 4 can be traded without their approval as they all have NMCs.
Both Marner & Tavares have responded directly or indirectly that a trade isn't happening.
Pretty safe bet Matthews isn't going anywhere.
Nylander just signed his 8 year deal to stay in Toronto ...
The chances of a trade happening with the core 4 are very, very slim

It won't be a long protracted battle.
"Show me the money" Simple.
If they don't ante up, he'll have 31 other teams to consider July 1, 2025.
It is not a difficult concept. Nor hard to figure out.
He'll probably come in south of Matthews and north of Nylander.
The Leafs don't have to do that deal. I'm sure some team that Marner likes will.
Marner's agent knows all that. This is not that hard.

"alienate a lot of this fanbase" that's too bad.
A bunch of them will 'come to their senses' when faced with losing him for nothing - just like Treliving will.
You can't operate a team motivated by merely appeasing the fanbase with contracts you sign. Collectively, in this situation, I'm not sure the fanbase has been very well informed or has a very good grasp of the situation. A lot of misinformation and misleading stuff.
Until this is resolved, for his safety, Marner's camp will limit or eliminate his direct exposure to alienated fans.

There were a lot of alienated fans when Sundin declined being traded.
When they retired his jersey or put him in the HHoF, I didn't notice them.

There's so much I disagree with in this post, but let me ask you a question.

$13M/8yrs Full NMC for Marner or he walks. Would you sign him?
If he was UFA July 1st, 2024 I would not sign him.
#5
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 10:58:46 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 19, 2024, 10:16:05 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

Over no one? Absolutely. Over the potential assets in return as part of a trade/players brought in using the free cap space? That's more complicated and less clear cut.

Marner has to approve that. Why should he?
He wants to stay in Toronto.
An 8 year contract means he'll probably be around longer than Treliving.

"Mitch, we want to dump you but we'd like to get a bunch back when we do. You could go there for nothing - no strings attached on July 1 and be a big lift to your future team. But we thought you wouldn't mind weakening your future team by leaving now. It would help us get some picks/prospects/players for you since we don't value you that much anymore and we don't want you to leave for nothing because it would look bad on Leafs management. So what do you think?"

That's kind of what they're trying to sell him, right?
Are his agent and Marner that stupid that they won't see that?

Part of the reason Sundin declined his trade is that it would hurt his current team's playoff prospects. Marner apparently is very popular among his teammates. It is tough enough to trade a $10.9 mil player during the season due to the cap. To be limited to whatever destinations Marner would come up with and the media circus also diminish the plausible return. How could the Leafs pull off such a deal and be a more competitive club immediately? Mike Milbury & Doug Risebrough retired years ago.
Everyone knows he has to waive his NTC to be moved. It comes down to, do you want to resign him at $12.5-13.5? I would not be willing to sign him this summer. I would let teams know to send through their offers and if I liked one I would approach Mitch. If I don't get a reasonable offer I would not discuss any contract extensions until post-playoffs. At which time, I probably won't sign him because the Leafs went out early and I want to spend his cap elsewhere.
#6
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 19, 2024, 09:41:34 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 19, 2024, 09:37:51 AMWhat a play by Tkachuk and what a terrible play OEL. OEL gave up on the play.

It looks like he may have thought the puck went in. Ultimately I don't think it would have changed anything even if he was engaged.
20 seconds left, Tkachuk sure as hell didn't give up on that play. I would be pissed watching that replay if I was him.
#7
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMHaving him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.
What success? Seriously? Allocating his dollars elsewhere can also increase the chance of making and having success in the playoffs. It is entirely possible that the team could get better without him whether he's traded or walks.
#8
Quote from: herman on June 18, 2024, 09:54:04 PMMcDavid is taking it back to Edmonton

https://twitter.com/sportsnet/status/1803260597204627901
What a play by Tkachuk and what a terrible play OEL. OEL gave up on the play.
#9
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 18, 2024, 03:20:29 PMOnly one more year of Tavares's $11M cap hit though. So that percentage will drop.

Keep Marner and figure out how/if to retain Tavares next year.
I put the math above it's still too much of a percentage of the cap with the core's raises and a Tavares drop.
#10
One thing the Leafs have established is that paying 4 forwards 48% of the cap does not work.

I cannot for the life of me comprehend how satisfied some of you are with Marner's playoff performances. The best of the worst is still not good and games 5-7 do matter. I cannot believe anyone who actually watched the games could make this argument. The rest of the core is locked so the reallocation available is Marner.

The Leafs very well could be worse off without him but they are not going to win with so much cap allocation upfront.

I posted this in January and it's still very relevant:

I wanted to analyze if we keep the core four would we have any additional cap available to allocate elsewhere?

Now Core 4 percentage of cap = (11.64+11+10.9+6.96)/83.5 = 48.51%

25/26 Projected
Salary Cap Guess= $91.5
Facts: AM = $13.25 WN = $11.5
Guesses: MM: $12.25, JT = $5.0

Projected Core 4 percentage of cap = (13.25+11.5+12.25+5)/91.5 = 45.90%

The difference in percentages equates to $2.4M more to spend.

If we had just $2.4M more to spend today we couldn't win. I don't think keeping the core 4 intact makes sense if they're serious about winning.

I think MM has to go.
#11
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 12:48:50 PMAgain, the content of what's being said through the media is all just posturing for bargaining position on both sides. However, how its being said points towards a divorce happening one way or another.
I think so as well...

I am willing to see what's on the other side good or bad.
#12
Quote from: Rob on June 12, 2024, 02:52:45 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 02:46:13 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 01:45:59 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he'd be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

 
Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.

Do you think some team would have given Matthews more than $13.25m?  I think some other team would have.
Honestly, I don't know why Matthews got the top cap hit on just a 4-year deal. If you're going to pay someone more than anyone else a reasonable term length would be assumed.

Agents to Leafs: "I want more than all my peers". Leafs GM's: "okay".
#13
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 01:45:59 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he'd be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

 
Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.
#14
Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 12:54:09 PMMarner would not take 12.5M x 8.

Marner will open his asking price at 15M and probably let it come down to ~14M+ x 8 years because Matthews got a bit over 15% of the 88M cap, and it's likely a 93M cap when Marner's next contract kicks in.

Is anyone here good with that?
Your post seems comical but probably not far off reality.

NO, I am not good with that.
#15
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.