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You know you're thinking about it already. Which no-good bum who struggled to produce anything tangible in a 7 game sample do we need to dump?

If you're thinking about Seth Jones, do yourself a favour and just replace those two words with Miro Heiskanen so people don't laugh at you up front.

I'll start!

To LAK: Mitch Marner (signing bonus paid, 4x 10.903M), Morgan Rielly (1x 5M)
To TOR: 2022 1st, Quinton Byfield, Akil Thomas, Olli Maataa, Matt Roy, whatever buriable spare parts they want to dump

Why would LA do this?
Huge jumpstart for their impressive prospect pool on the cusp of entering the league. Immediately adds the speed they seek, especially on the backend and extending the viability of their two big tickets (Doughty, Kopitar). It's a lopsided trade on the cap side, but there isn't much real cash left on Marner's deal and it's a surefire top-end player to bridge the gap between the old Cup winners and the upcoming kids.

Why would Toronto do this?
Byfield is a high pick, but a project (they loooove projects) and is some higher-end centre depth. Thomas has existing chemistry with two Leaf prospects (SDA, Nicky Bobby) and he sort of buried pretty deep behind Turcotte, Vilardi, and the aforementioned Kopitar. Matt Roy is a good middle D get to replace Holl, Maataa is a dump.

The bare mimumum/did nothing to change the team roster:

FORWARDS (12)
Right wing: Mitchell Marner ($10,903,000) - William Nylander ($6,962,366) - Jason Spezza ($750,000) - Nicholas Robertson ($821,667)
Centre: Auston Matthews ($11,640,250) - John Tavares ($11,000,000) - Adam Brooks ($725,000) - Joey Anderson ($750,000)
Left wing: Ilya Mikheyev ($1,645,000) - Pierre Engvall ($1,250,000) - Zach Hyman ($4,500,000) - Alex Galchenyuk ($1,500,000)

DEFENSE (7)
Right: TJ Brodie ($5,000,000) - Justin Holl ($2,000,000) - Zach Bogosian ($1,500,000)
Left: Jake Muzzin ($5,625,000) - Morgan Rielly ($5,000,000) - Rasmus Sandin ($894,167) - Travis Dermott ($1,250,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
Jack Campbell ($1,650,000) - Jonathan Bernier ($2,750,000)

RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)
Phil Kessel ($1,200,000)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 21
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $79,316,450
Cap Space: $2,183,550

4.5 for Hyman? That's a huge overpay for what he brings. Listen I love his work ethic but the way he's over valued is beyond nuts. He's not a 1st line player and he's not worth what some are mentioning. He has 5 pts in his last 3 playoffs playing with M&M. He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall. 1 more then Spezza and he played most of his time with M&M. They deserve  a better winger.
I'm also not giving Galchenyuk or Bogo a 500K raise. Time for Liljegren and I think Robertson could fill in for Galy.
Dubas will have to hold firm with guys this year again with the cap not moving up..every dollar counts.
Also of note...Robertson's contract slid this year so his hit is now 793 333.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 09:57:17 AM
4.5 for Hyman? That's a huge overpay for what he brings. Listen I love his work ethic but the way he's over valued is beyond nuts. He's not a 1st line player and he's not worth what some are mentioning. He has 5 pts in his last 3 playoffs playing with M&M. He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall. 1 more then Spezza and he played most of his time with M&M. They deserve  a better winger.
I'm also not giving Galchenyuk or Bogo a 500K raise. Time for Liljegren and I think Robertson could fill in for Galy.
Dubas will have to hold firm with guys this year again with the cap not moving up..every dollar counts.
Also of note...Robertson's contract slid this year so his hit is now 793 333.

I think we have chatted a few times that I'm in agreement with you.  I'm just erring on the side of I have a feeling he's going to get more.  I hope that isn't the case.

I think if you can get Freddie for 3 mill or less, you do it. I think they would make a good tandem. Not sure we can rely on Jack for a full season. I also think you try to get Rielly signed for a small raise now if you can. If not, trade him this off season and let Sandin, Dermott take over. I would bring Simmonds back at league minimum.

"He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall" is such a weird argument. Nylander and Tavares each only had 4 more 5v5 goals then those two as well, it doesn't really say anything about them as players.

Quote from: L K on June 02, 2021, 10:37:19 AM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 09:57:17 AM
4.5 for Hyman? That's a huge overpay for what he brings. Listen I love his work ethic but the way he's over valued is beyond nuts. He's not a 1st line player and he's not worth what some are mentioning. He has 5 pts in his last 3 playoffs playing with M&M. He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall. 1 more then Spezza and he played most of his time with M&M. They deserve  a better winger.
I'm also not giving Galchenyuk or Bogo a 500K raise. Time for Liljegren and I think Robertson could fill in for Galy.
Dubas will have to hold firm with guys this year again with the cap not moving up..every dollar counts.
Also of note...Robertson's contract slid this year so his hit is now 793 333.

I think we have chatted a few times that I'm in agreement with you.  I'm just erring on the side of I have a feeling he's going to get more.  I hope that isn't the case.

Yes we have and I know where you're coming from. I would give him 3 max and that's really pushing it. He belongs on the 3rd line, not on the #1.
And Spezza just said he wants to come back next year so that's a given. You can't turn that down.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2021, 10:41:56 AM
"He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall" is such a weird argument. Nylander and Tavares each only had 4 more 5v5 goals then those two as well, it doesn't really say anything about them as players.

Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 10:45:52 AM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2021, 10:41:56 AM
"He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall" is such a weird argument. Nylander and Tavares each only had 4 more 5v5 goals then those two as well, it doesn't really say anything about them as players.

Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

Why? Matthews is the finished on that line and Marner is a reasonable goalscorer, as well. Hyman's not on that line to put puck in the net. He's there to get the puck to the other guys, so they can work their magic. I wouldn't give him that much money, either, but using 5v5 goals is a very very very limited metric of what Hyman provides.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 02, 2021, 10:49:48 AM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 10:45:52 AM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2021, 10:41:56 AM
"He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall" is such a weird argument. Nylander and Tavares each only had 4 more 5v5 goals then those two as well, it doesn't really say anything about them as players.

Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

Why? Matthews is the finished on that line and Marner is a reasonable goalscorer, as well. Hyman's not on that line to put puck in the net. He's there to get the puck to the other guys, so they can work their magic. I wouldn't give him that much money, either, but using 5v5 goals is a very very very limited metric of what Hyman provides.

So he's not on the line expected to finish? Why is he on the PP? That's pretty sad don't you think? He was a huge problem for M&M this series. He had 1 takeaway these playoffs so he wasn't really effective was he?
The problem with having a guy who can't finish on your top line is that it makes it easier to check them in the playoffs. The habs just focused on Matthews, who I thought actually played well despite not scoring.

Hyman seemed to forget his role a bit and looked like he tried to do too much himself. I honestly don't know how much he's worth at this point. I don't think he's going to age well because of his style and injury history. Maybe that combined with his desire to stay in Toronto would lead to a more reasonable deal than many think. Assuming he really wants to stay, that is.

Bogo I thought was really good this season and I'd be in favor of a small raise to keep him, especially if we're going to lose Dermott or Holl. Galchenyuk, I don't think he deserves a raise. I like him and would be interested in keeping him for depth but he wasn't all that effective scoring-wise for the most part despite playing hard and at least appearing to give a f...unless maybe they think the Leafs skills coaches can work some magic on him.

We really need someone like Robertson to come in and get comfortable and provide some more of a secondary scoring threat. Hopefully he's healthy and stronger by the start of the season so he can get in a full year.

The Hyman-Matthews-Marner played 289 5-on-5 minutes together and in that time the Leafs GF/60 was 4.36 and they had a 72% GF%.

In the 453 minutes M&M played without Hyman on their wing the team scored at a rate of 3.7 GF/60 and they had a 65% GF%.

I'm all for finding an upgrade for that top line if one exists. Good luck doing it for less than $4.5mil.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 11:01:10 AM
So he's not on the line expected to finish? Why is he on the PP? That's pretty sad don't you think? He was a huge problem for M&M this series. He had 1 takeaway these playoffs so he wasn't really effective was he?
The problem with having a guy who can't finish on your top line is that it makes it easier to check them in the playoffs. The habs just focused on Matthews, who I thought actually played well despite not scoring.

The plant himself in front of the goalie and take away their line of site, and maybe bat in some rebounds - kind of like what Tomas Holmstrom did for Detroit. Also, he averaged 1:30/game on the PP, good for 7th among forwards, so it's not like he was seen as a key cog there, either. Wayne Simmonds averaged more than that, and he was awful.

Also, who else would go there? It's not like the Leafs had a ton of guys lower in the depth charts that would have been a meaningful upgrade.

I'd like to move away from planting a stationary player in front of the goalie on the PP. Sort of neutralizes the 5-on-4 advantage (and even strength OZ cycles) if one guy is just standing there waiting for pucks to whizz by.

Quote from: herman on June 02, 2021, 11:21:00 AM
I'd like to move away from planting a stationary player in front of the goalie on the PP. Sort of neutralizes the 5-on-4 advantage (and even strength OZ cycles) if one guy is just standing there waiting for pucks to whizz by.

Agreed.

Quote from: herman on June 02, 2021, 11:21:00 AM
I'd like to move away from planting a stationary player in front of the goalie on the PP. Sort of neutralizes the 5-on-4 advantage (and even strength OZ cycles) if one guy is just standing there waiting for pucks to whizz by.

Sure, but you gotta work with the talent you've got. If that's the best setup for one of your PP groups, you gotta make the best of it.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 02, 2021, 11:18:14 AM
The plant himself in front of the goalie and take away their line of site, and maybe bat in some rebounds - kind of like what Tomas Holmstrom did for Detroit.

Then why did people witch that Thornton was on PP1 doing that? Last I checked he scored a PP goal and was in front of the net when Sandin scored his.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 02, 2021, 11:27:05 AM

Quote from: herman on June 02, 2021, 11:21:00 AM
I'd like to move away from planting a stationary player in front of the goalie on the PP. Sort of neutralizes the 5-on-4 advantage (and even strength OZ cycles) if one guy is just standing there waiting for pucks to whizz by.

Sure, but you gotta work with the talent you've got. If that's the best setup for one of your PP groups, you gotta make the best of it.

I think that's fine if you have Tavares sitting there who can finish in front of the net and make good deflections.  I would agree though that I would like to see more movement on the powerplay.  Not just puck movement but player movement as well.  Don't have everyone fixed the to the same 3 foot radius...especially if you aren't going to have shooting threats on the blueline.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 02, 2021, 11:27:05 AM

Quote from: herman on June 02, 2021, 11:21:00 AM
I'd like to move away from planting a stationary player in front of the goalie on the PP. Sort of neutralizes the 5-on-4 advantage (and even strength OZ cycles) if one guy is just standing there waiting for pucks to whizz by.

Sure, but you gotta work with the talent you've got. If that's the best setup for one of your PP groups, you gotta make the best of it.

They have the talent to have a lower guy moving around. Willy would work there and so would Marner.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 10:45:52 AM
Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

He had 18 points in 18 games with them.

Quote from: herman on June 02, 2021, 08:43:47 AM
...
To LAK: Mitch Marner (signing bonus paid, 4x 10.903M), Morgan Rielly (1x 5M)
To TOR: 2022 1st, Quinton Byfield, Akil Thomas, Olli Maataa, Matt Roy, whatever buriable spare parts they want to dump
...

Well, that would certainly help with the prospect pool, though I don't think it's nearly enough value for Marner.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2021, 01:11:19 PM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 10:45:52 AM
Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

He had 18 points in 18 games with them.

How many in the playoffs, you know, when it matters? 5 points the last 3 years for Hyman. And let's be honest, that goal he got this year was going in without the aid of him barely touching it.
He has the same amount of points as Spezza who's played here only the last 2 years(7 games less).
1 more point then Galchenyuk had this playoffs, so 12 less games, 11mins less per game and no PP time.
1 more point then Dermott in 4 less games with no PP time..
1 more then Johnsson in 11 less games and we shipped him out.
He was 17th in P/60 yet 4th in ice time, 3rd in PP time, in these playoffs. That's not good enough to warrant being on the top line and certainly not good enough to get a big raise either.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 02:05:56 PM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2021, 01:11:19 PM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 10:45:52 AM
Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

He had 18 points in 18 games with them.

How many in the playoffs, you know, when it matters? 5 points the last 3 years for Hyman. And let's be honest, that goal he got this year was going in without the aid of him barely touching it.
He has the same amount of points as Spezza who's played here only the last 2 years(7 games less).
1 more point then Galchenyuk had this playoffs, so 12 less games, 11mins less per game and no PP time.
1 more point then Dermott in 4 less games with no PP time..
1 more then Johnsson in 11 less games and we shipped him out.
He was 17th in P/60 yet 4th in ice time, 3rd in PP time, in these playoffs. That's not good enough to warrant being on the top line and certainly not good enough to get a big raise either.

So to be clear we've gone from:

"Hyman doesn't produce enough" -> Actually scored at a 60 point pace for the last 2 seasons which is pretty good

"Ok but he should produce more with M&M" -> Actually scored at a 31 goal, 82 point pace when on their line this season (probably not sustainable but impressive nonetheless)

"Ok ok FINE but he didn't produce enough in the playoffs" -> Well if we're gonna start making decisions on that I can think of a hell of a lot better ways to spend $10,903,000.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2021, 02:15:38 PM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 02:05:56 PM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2021, 01:11:19 PM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2021, 10:45:52 AM
Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

He had 18 points in 18 games with them.

How many in the playoffs, you know, when it matters? 5 points the last 3 years for Hyman. And let's be honest, that goal he got this year was going in without the aid of him barely touching it.
He has the same amount of points as Spezza who's played here only the last 2 years(7 games less).
1 more point then Galchenyuk had this playoffs, so 12 less games, 11mins less per game and no PP time.
1 more point then Dermott in 4 less games with no PP time..
1 more then Johnsson in 11 less games and we shipped him out.
He was 17th in P/60 yet 4th in ice time, 3rd in PP time, in these playoffs. That's not good enough to warrant being on the top line and certainly not good enough to get a big raise either.

So to be clear we've gone from:

"Hyman doesn't produce enough" -> Actually scored at a 60 point pace for the last 2 seasons which is pretty good

"Ok but he should produce more with M&M" -> Actually scored at a 31 goal, 82 point pace when on their line this season (probably not sustainable but impressive nonetheless)

"Ok ok FINE but he didn't produce enough in the playoffs" -> Well if we're gonna start making decisions on that I can think of a hell of a lot better ways to spend $10,903,000.

It actually started from this....
~4.5 for Hyman? That's a huge overpay for what he brings. Listen I love his work ethic but the way he's over valued is beyond nuts. He's not a 1st line player and he's not worth what some are mentioning. He has 5 pts in his last 3 playoffs playing with M&M. He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall.~
Notice how the playoffs are mentioned? Let's make it crystal clear for everybody then. HE DOESN'T PRODUCE ENOUGH IN THE PLAYOFFS TO WARRANT BEING ON THE TOP LINE....?

As for his regular season points..Would Marner still put up the points he did without Matthews, Hyman? Why yes he probably would. Would Matthews still score lots of goals without Marner, Hyman? Ah, yup he has in the past. Would Hyman put up those numbers without M&M? Not a chance. He's totally benefited from paying with those elite guys...we need better on that line especially in the playoffs.

How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

Quote from: Chris on June 02, 2021, 03:02:06 PM
How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

Marner was putting up points when Babs used to put him on the 4th line with Matt Martin, remember? He's a type of player that can drive a line.

Quote from: Chris on June 02, 2021, 03:02:06 PM
How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

The answer is yes.

Quote from: Chris on June 02, 2021, 03:02:06 PM
How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

Yes he would.  He's a legit star player.  He just needed to adjust his game for playoff hockey.   He couldn't dangle his way through defenders, he and Matthews need to adapt

Hyman-Matthews-Marner - 291.6 minutes - 21 goals for (4.32/60) - 8 goals against (1.65/60)

Matthews-Marner - 393.5 minutes - 24 goals for (3.67/60) - 12 goals against (1.83/60)

Matthews - 19.9 minutes - 1 goal for (3.01/60), 0 against

Hyman-Marner - 25.2 minutes - 0 goals for and 1 goal against (2.38/60)

Hyman - 227 minutes - 10 goals for (2.64/60) , 4 against (1.06/60)

Marner - 42.6 minutes - 2 goal for (2.82/60), 4 against (5.63/60)

Their numbers together are clearly better than separated although some of the separations are definitely too small to really make judgements on them.  Also something doesn't seem perfectly right with the numbers from Moneypuck as the toi seems low.

Quote from: wnc096 on June 02, 2021, 03:39:29 PM
He just needed to adjust his game for playoff hockey.   

Like, I'm the first guy to admit Marner wasn't great in the playoffs but I think it's also important to point out that he has been good in the past. Prior to this year he had 21 points in 25 career playoff games. Again, not outstanding, but I think it's a far cry from what some people are saying where he's incapable of the mental toughness required for playing good hockey in the playoffs. I remember a lot of people here saying he was the team's best player in the loss against the Bruins in 2018.

Quote from: Nik on June 02, 2021, 04:27:38 PM

Quote from: wnc096 on June 02, 2021, 03:39:29 PM
He just needed to adjust his game for playoff hockey.   

Like, I'm the first guy to admit Marner wasn't great in the playoffs but I think it's also important to point out that he has been good in the past. Prior to this year he had 21 points in 25 career playoff games. Again, not outstanding, but I think it's a far cry from what some people are saying where he's incapable of the mental toughness required for playing good hockey in the playoffs. I remember a lot of people here saying he was the team's best player in the loss against the Bruins in 2018.

That's very true. I think he was playing with Bozak and JVR in that series. I think he just needs to get out of his own head. Let's hope so.

That was true in 2018.  He then proceeded to regress, moving resolutely and with head held high down into the freaking tarpit that is the only truly accurate description of this year's playoffs.

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So the expansion draft:

7 forwards/3 defensemen + goalie  OR 8 skaters + goalie

First and second year players are exempted and unsigned players are exempt.
At least one defenseman who played 40 games last year or 70 over the last two: Dermott
At least two forwards who played 40 games/70 over the last two: Kerfoot, Engvall
At least one goalie under contract: Hutchinson

Tavares - NMC
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

Rielly
Brodie
Muzzin
Holl

Campbell

That exposes: Dermott, Engvall, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Brooks

Maybe it isn't doable but should the Leafs try and trade Rielly/Kerfoot before the expansion draft if there is a team that is interested?

Small note: Mikheyev's exempt.

Quote from: L K on June 03, 2021, 08:22:07 AM
So the expansion draft:

7 forwards/3 defensemen + goalie  OR 8 skaters + goalie

First and second year players are exempted and unsigned players are exempt.
At least one defenseman who played 40 games last year or 70 over the last two: Dermott
At least two forwards who played 40 games/70 over the last two: Kerfoot, Engvall
At least one goalie under contract: Hutchinson

Tavares - NMC
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

Rielly
Brodie
Muzzin
Holl

Campbell

That exposes: Dermott, Engvall, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Brooks

Maybe it isn't doable but should the Leafs try and trade Rielly/Kerfoot before the expansion draft if there is a team that is interested?

As it stands right now, Leafs can't protect 2F, 1D, 1G from the following...
Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kerfoot, Engvall, Tavares(NMC so will be protected).
Muzz, Brodie, Rielly, Holl.
Campbell, Hutch.
If they traded Rielly/Kerfoot, they wouldn't be allowed to protect one of the big 3 because they have to protect JT. Of course it depends on what comes back player wise but if no players came back and they don't sign anyone from now until the draft, one of Matthews, Willy, Marner would be left unprotected. Dermott can be protected but can't count towards the 1D, he doesn't meet the criteria because he isn't signed.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 03, 2021, 08:58:48 AM
Dermott can be protected but can't count towards the 1D, he doesn't meet the criteria because he isn't signed.

If the Leafs plan on exposing him, that's a pretty easy fix.

That being said, it wouldn't shock me if the Leafs exposed Holl and made some kind of side deal with Seattle - especially if they're exploring moving Rielly.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 03, 2021, 09:43:24 AM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 03, 2021, 08:58:48 AM
Dermott can be protected but can't count towards the 1D, he doesn't meet the criteria because he isn't signed.

If the Leafs plan on exposing him, that's a pretty easy fix.

That being said, it wouldn't shock me if the Leafs exposed Holl and made some kind of side deal with Seattle - especially if they're exploring moving Rielly.

If the plan is to shed Kerfoot's salary they won't leave Holl unprotected. He'll be gone barring a side deal. Holl at 2mill is an incredible deal.
Dermott would have to sign in order to go in the group of 4. He may choose not to and take his chances.
It's going to be an interesting off season to see what direction the Leafs go...I think we've seen the last of the old guys though other then Spezza.
I think a Rielly move will totally depend on the ask. I think if Dubas can sign him for a reasonable raise he will.

I have to say, it would be something if the Leafs' reaction to all this is to trade the one guy on the team who almost unquestionably is playing over and above his cap hit.

Do the Leafs have to protect a goalie?

Quote from: Nik on June 03, 2021, 11:18:24 AM

I have to say, it would be something if the Leafs' reaction to all this is to trade the one guy on the team who almost unquestionably is playing over and above his cap hit.

If they don't want to take the chance of losing him they will. Pretty sure bet that Jack will be gone if they don't.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 03, 2021, 11:31:36 AM

Quote from: Nik on June 03, 2021, 11:18:24 AM

I have to say, it would be something if the Leafs' reaction to all this is to trade the one guy on the team who almost unquestionably is playing over and above his cap hit.

If they don't want to take the chance of losing him they will. Pretty sure bet that Jack will be gone if they don't.

Losing Campbell doesn't really terrify me.

Quote from: Nik on June 03, 2021, 11:33:52 AM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 03, 2021, 11:31:36 AM

Quote from: Nik on June 03, 2021, 11:18:24 AM

I have to say, it would be something if the Leafs' reaction to all this is to trade the one guy on the team who almost unquestionably is playing over and above his cap hit.

If they don't want to take the chance of losing him they will. Pretty sure bet that Jack will be gone if they don't.

Losing Campbell doesn't really terrify me.

Maybe not but they're going to protect him. They will need to get at least 1 goalie in the off season and at 1.6, Jack is a good option to have.

I forgot the Leafs don't have a 1st round pick this year.

According to my quick research on capfriendly, they've only got a 2nd, a 5th, and a 6th.

Quote from: Frank E on June 03, 2021, 11:49:19 AM
I forgot the Leafs don't have a 1st round pick this year.

According to my quick research on capfriendly, they've only got a 2nd, a 5th, and a 6th.

A Rielly trade could net us potentially a 1st, 2nd and decent prospect.

I'm just so frustrated with how this group fast tracked the rebuild in every way they possibly could rather than making prudent long term moves. They kept talking about wanting to compete year in year out. Is that really sustainable with the Big 4 + whatever scrubs? Where's our Cale Makar? Where's our Sam Girard? Where's our Bowen Byram? I'm so tired of assets going out and not recouping anything back.

JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Komarov, Andersen, Barrie, Kadri (in a weird way because Barrie is gone and Kerfoot may also be gone) bad use of picks in Rittich, Foligno, Boyle, Plekanec, bad signing in Marleau that cost us picks to get out of... like what is going on here? We can't remain competitive if the only time we're making trades for assets coming in is when our cap hand is forced and we trade Kapanen or Johnsson or Brown. I really think this is starting to look like mismanagement. We have no draft picks and nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record for the most part. We could see the best years of this core wasted and they could leave in free agency in a couple of years. Then what? This is just so baffling.

Quote from: Bender on June 03, 2021, 12:34:01 PM
I'm just so frustrated with how this group fast tracked the rebuild in every way they possibly could rather than making prudent long term moves. They kept talking about wanting to compete year in year out. Is that really sustainable with the Big 4 + whatever scrubs? Where's our Cale Makar? Where's our Sam Girard? Where's our Bowen Byram? I'm so tired of assets going out and not recouping anything back.

JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Komarov, Andersen, Barrie, Kadri (in a weird way because Barrie is gone and Kerfoot may also be gone) bad use of picks in Rittich, Foligno, Boyle, Plekanec, bad signing in Marleau that cost us picks to get out of... like what is going on here? We can't remain competitive if the only time we're making trades for assets coming in is when our cap hand is forced and we trade Kapanen or Johnsson or Brown. I really think this is starting to look like mismanagement. We have no draft picks and nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record for the most part. We could see the best years of this core wasted and they could leave in free agency in a couple of years. Then what? This is just so baffling.

I still cant believe they didn't trade Barrie at last years deadline, when I heard he was in the rumourmill at the time I was hoping they would get literally anything for him.  That was an idiotic move on Dubas' part

Quote from: Bender on June 03, 2021, 12:34:01 PM
I'm just so frustrated with how this group fast tracked the rebuild in every way they possibly could rather than making prudent long term moves. They kept talking about wanting to compete year in year out. Is that really sustainable with the Big 4 + whatever scrubs? Where's our Cale Makar? Where's our Sam Girard? Where's our Bowen Byram? I'm so tired of assets going out and not recouping anything back.

JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Komarov, Andersen, Barrie, Kadri (in a weird way because Barrie is gone and Kerfoot may also be gone) bad use of picks in Rittich, Foligno, Boyle, Plekanec, bad signing in Marleau that cost us picks to get out of... like what is going on here? We can't remain competitive if the only time we're making trades for assets coming in is when our cap hand is forced and we trade Kapanen or Johnsson or Brown. I really think this is starting to look like mismanagement. We have no draft picks and nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record for the most part. We could see the best years of this core wasted and they could leave in free agency in a couple of years. Then what? This is just so baffling.

I don't know about this part. A lot of experts think the Leafs have actually drafted quite well since Dubas took full control and the pipeline is generally well regarded. His picks might not be hammering down the door to get to the NHL, but to say the team has nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record doesn't land in the same way it did a few years ago. And, while it certainly appears as though there's not much on the cusp of cracking the roster, with prospects, you never really know. There are guys who could show up to camp in the fall and force their way on to the roster. There might not be any elite, 1st line types - though, the team doesn't really need that right now - but there could certainly be some solid middle six forwards, 2nd pairing dmen, etc. that breakthrough in the next couple years.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 03, 2021, 01:14:31 PM

Quote from: Bender on June 03, 2021, 12:34:01 PM
I'm just so frustrated with how this group fast tracked the rebuild in every way they possibly could rather than making prudent long term moves. They kept talking about wanting to compete year in year out. Is that really sustainable with the Big 4 + whatever scrubs? Where's our Cale Makar? Where's our Sam Girard? Where's our Bowen Byram? I'm so tired of assets going out and not recouping anything back.

JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Komarov, Andersen, Barrie, Kadri (in a weird way because Barrie is gone and Kerfoot may also be gone) bad use of picks in Rittich, Foligno, Boyle, Plekanec, bad signing in Marleau that cost us picks to get out of... like what is going on here? We can't remain competitive if the only time we're making trades for assets coming in is when our cap hand is forced and we trade Kapanen or Johnsson or Brown. I really think this is starting to look like mismanagement. We have no draft picks and nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record for the most part. We could see the best years of this core wasted and they could leave in free agency in a couple of years. Then what? This is just so baffling.

I don't know about this part. A lot of experts think the Leafs have actually drafted quite well since Dubas took full control and the pipeline is generally well regarded. His picks might not be hammering down the door to get to the NHL, but to say the team has nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record doesn't land in the same way it did a few years ago. And, while it certainly appears as though there's not much on the cusp of cracking the roster, with prospects, you never really know. There are guys who could show up to camp in the fall and force their way on to the roster. There might not be any elite, 1st line types - though, the team doesn't really need that right now - but there could certainly be some solid middle six forwards, 2nd pairing dmen, etc. that breakthrough in the next couple years.

Need to give them roles and let them grow into them, whether it's 3rd line or 4th line or maybe (Robertson e.g.) something higher up. If Dubas keeps providing Keefe with "safe" option vets like Thornton, Simmonds, Vesey etc then you know what happens...those young players get into a game once in a while on the 4th line for 5 minutes. Then come playoff time the player isn't ready and/or you don't know what you might have. Brooks is a good example, if he was playing most of the season he might be able to make a bigger impact in the playoffs.

Quote from: Chris on June 03, 2021, 01:35:46 PMThen come playoff time the player isn't ready and/or you don't know what you might have. Brooks is a good example, if he was playing most of the season he might be able to make a bigger impact in the playoffs.

I don't think genuinely talented young players need line-up spots gift-wrapped for them. If Brooks legitimately earned being in the line-up every night, they would have found a spot for him.

Quote from: Chris on June 03, 2021, 01:35:46 PM
Need to give them roles and let them grow into them, whether it's 3rd line or 4th line or maybe (Robertson e.g.) something higher up. If Dubas keeps providing Keefe with "safe" option vets like Thornton, Simmonds, Vesey etc then you know what happens...those young players get into a game once in a while on the 4th line for 5 minutes. Then come playoff time the player isn't ready and/or you don't know what you might have. Brooks is a good example, if he was playing most of the season he might be able to make a bigger impact in the playoffs.

When they're ready, absolutely. I'm not sure any of them were necessarily ready for full-time duty when this season started. Even still, it's not exactly difficult to move the types of players and contracts the Leafs signed these guys to. We saw that when Boyd and Vesey both got plucked off waivers. Teams will happily give up conditional 6th and 7th round picks if they think a player can provide them with value. And, if no team does, it's easy enough to park these guys in the AHL if there clearly superior options present themselves. As easily as it was for Dubas gives Keefe the "safe" vets, it's even easier for him to take them away if the circumstances warrant.

If these guys do enough to earn a full-time spot, one will be created for them - but, they have to earn it. The Leafs aren't in a position to just hand young players a spot in the lineup. They're not a rebuilding team anymore.

Quote from: wnc096 on June 03, 2021, 12:38:37 PM

Quote from: Bender on June 03, 2021, 12:34:01 PM
I'm just so frustrated with how this group fast tracked the rebuild in every way they possibly could rather than making prudent long term moves. They kept talking about wanting to compete year in year out. Is that really sustainable with the Big 4 + whatever scrubs? Where's our Cale Makar? Where's our Sam Girard? Where's our Bowen Byram? I'm so tired of assets going out and not recouping anything back.

JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Komarov, Andersen, Barrie, Kadri (in a weird way because Barrie is gone and Kerfoot may also be gone) bad use of picks in Rittich, Foligno, Boyle, Plekanec, bad signing in Marleau that cost us picks to get out of... like what is going on here? We can't remain competitive if the only time we're making trades for assets coming in is when our cap hand is forced and we trade Kapanen or Johnsson or Brown. I really think this is starting to look like mismanagement. We have no draft picks and nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record for the most part. We could see the best years of this core wasted and they could leave in free agency in a couple of years. Then what? This is just so baffling.

I still cant believe they didn't trade Barrie at last years deadline, when I heard he was in the rumourmill at the time I was hoping they would get literally anything for him.  That was an idiotic move on Dubas' part

How idiotic was it really.   He was an offense only defenseman who was misused by Babcock and then was producing better under Keefe but the stink was on him at that point.  Getting a 3rd round pick for Barrie doesn't stock the cupboards and it would have taken an asset out of the Leafs hands come the playoffs.  They weren't getting a 1st round pick for him.

There was no way to fit him under the cap so it's a bit of a moot point but this team really missed post-Nov. 20, 2019 Tyson Barrie this season. It's kinda unfortunate pre-Nov. 20, 2019 Tyson Barrie will make people think otherwise.

Quote from: L K on June 03, 2021, 02:21:21 PM
How idiotic was it really.   He was an offense only defenseman who was misused by Babcock and then was producing better under Keefe but the stink was on him at that point.  Getting a 3rd round pick for Barrie doesn't stock the cupboards and it would have taken an asset out of the Leafs hands come the playoffs.  They weren't getting a 1st round pick for him.

Exactly. IIRC, the reports post-deadline were that the offers for Barrie were disappointing. As much as I'm typically all for shipping out expiring contracts for picks and prospects, the return has to be commensurate with the value of the player to the team. Getting a mid-round pick for a defenceman logging the kind of minutes Barrie was would not have been a reasonable move to make.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 03, 2021, 01:14:31 PM

Quote from: Bender on June 03, 2021, 12:34:01 PM
I'm just so frustrated with how this group fast tracked the rebuild in every way they possibly could rather than making prudent long term moves. They kept talking about wanting to compete year in year out. Is that really sustainable with the Big 4 + whatever scrubs? Where's our Cale Makar? Where's our Sam Girard? Where's our Bowen Byram? I'm so tired of assets going out and not recouping anything back.

JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Komarov, Andersen, Barrie, Kadri (in a weird way because Barrie is gone and Kerfoot may also be gone) bad use of picks in Rittich, Foligno, Boyle, Plekanec, bad signing in Marleau that cost us picks to get out of... like what is going on here? We can't remain competitive if the only time we're making trades for assets coming in is when our cap hand is forced and we trade Kapanen or Johnsson or Brown. I really think this is starting to look like mismanagement. We have no draft picks and nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record for the most part. We could see the best years of this core wasted and they could leave in free agency in a couple of years. Then what? This is just so baffling.

I don't know about this part. A lot of experts think the Leafs have actually drafted quite well since Dubas took full control and the pipeline is generally well regarded. His picks might not be hammering down the door to get to the NHL, but to say the team has nothing internally because of a terrible drafting record doesn't land in the same way it did a few years ago. And, while it certainly appears as though there's not much on the cusp of cracking the roster, with prospects, you never really know. There are guys who could show up to camp in the fall and force their way on to the roster. There might not be any elite, 1st line types - though, the team doesn't really need that right now - but there could certainly be some solid middle six forwards, 2nd pairing dmen, etc. that breakthrough in the next couple years.

Even if we grant that and we give them the benefit of the doubt regarding their draft record, and maybe I'm being too hard on them in the sense that we generally didn't have high picks and Sandin looks like he will be serviceable but how many prospects will be ready before the 34/88/16 contracts are up? How productive will they be and will they be good enough to be secondary players by then? We've got Robertson beyond Sandin and some intriguing guys but beyond Sandin/Robertson there are none that I would be willing to say they could be difference makers by the time the team needs them to be.

And, I mean, my other points still stand. What happens if they let Rielly walk? You can't walk everyone to free agency, that's just foolish. We haven't come out of the first round in 5 years. At what point do you go, ok we need to retool here, recoup some assets for guys who WILL walk, who we can't replace at similar cap space, grab some useful pieces and take a run a year later? They are proving they have not set this team up to be competitive year after year like they said they wanted. I mean, the first round isn't even the yardstick we should be measuring them against. As Nick said previously, maybe if all we want is a first round win in a soft division so we can avoid Boston/Tampa, which we still likely can't beat at this point, maybe we need to re-evaluate how good this team is and take a good, hard look at how they're structured.

I know I've been mulling it myself but if we trade Rielly who are we replacing him with (outside of 1 for 1 Rielly for Jones type scenarios)?

The free agent market for defensemen is pure garbage this year.  It's basically Dougie Hamilton, Tyson Barrie and a bunch of guys who don't produce anything offensively.  I really like Sandin.  I think he will do a good job but we aren't getting 45-50 point production out of him.  Brodie, Holl, Dermott, Bogosian, Liljegren are all guys I don't trust to put up points in the NHL next year.  You do need offense from your blueline and while I like the potential of Sandin I don't trust him to explode like that...if he does we are looking a heck of a lot better.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 03, 2021, 02:29:44 PM

Quote from: L K on June 03, 2021, 02:21:21 PM
How idiotic was it really.   He was an offense only defenseman who was misused by Babcock and then was producing better under Keefe but the stink was on him at that point.  Getting a 3rd round pick for Barrie doesn't stock the cupboards and it would have taken an asset out of the Leafs hands come the playoffs.  They weren't getting a 1st round pick for him.

Exactly. IIRC, the reports post-deadline were that the offers for Barrie were disappointing. As much as I'm typically all for shipping out expiring contracts for picks and prospects, the return has to be commensurate with the value of the player to the team. Getting a mid-round pick for a defenceman logging the kind of minutes Barrie was would not have been a reasonable move to make.

Barrie ended up playing behind Holl and Cody Ceci, with the 4th most average ice time on D in the Columbus series (would have 5th if Muzzin wasn't hurt) and was pretty useless as I recall.    Maybe its hindsight, but would have taken a 3rd over that

Quote from: L K on June 03, 2021, 04:07:03 PM
I know I've been mulling it myself but if we trade Rielly who are we replacing him with (outside of 1 for 1 Rielly for Jones type scenarios)?

The free agent market for defensemen is pure garbage this year.  It's basically Dougie Hamilton, Tyson Barrie and a bunch of guys who don't produce anything offensively.  I really like Sandin.  I think he will do a good job but we aren't getting 45-50 point production out of him.  Brodie, Holl, Dermott, Bogosian, Liljegren are all guys I don't trust to put up points in the NHL next year.  You do need offense from your blueline and while I like the potential of Sandin I don't trust him to explode like that...if he does we are looking a heck of a lot better.

We def need something back if Rielly is moved. I don't think he is. For all his deficiencies on D he does carry the play a lot. Playoff Rielly was very good IMO, just keep him to PP2.

Quote from: L K on June 03, 2021, 04:07:03 PM
I know I've been mulling it myself but if we trade Rielly who are we replacing him with (outside of 1 for 1 Rielly for Jones type scenarios)?

The free agent market for defensemen is pure garbage this year.  It's basically Dougie Hamilton, Tyson Barrie and a bunch of guys who don't produce anything offensively.  I really like Sandin.  I think he will do a good job but we aren't getting 45-50 point production out of him.  Brodie, Holl, Dermott, Bogosian, Liljegren are all guys I don't trust to put up points in the NHL next year.  You do need offense from your blueline and while I like the potential of Sandin I don't trust him to explode like that...if he does we are looking a heck of a lot better.

I don't know but the reality is you lose him for nothing a year later. What's the difference? I'm not saying bite on whatever trade is out there but generally I would rather get something than nothing, especially with a flat cap for a few years.

Was scanning through the list of pending UFAs to see if there were any interesting middle-6 forwards who could potentially replace Hyman and/or Kerfoot if we lose them to FA/expansion. A couple of names immediately jumped out at me in Mikael Granlund and Blake Coleman, both of whom have been linked to the Leafs in the past. Jaden Schwartz was another tempting name if he's looking for a show-me type deal after a down-ish season.

Then the name of 25-year old, Group 6 UFA Michael Bunting caught my eye. I recalled an Arizona Coyotes reporter/observer speak pretty highly of him earlier this year. Some quick background info: he's 5'11" and 197lbs, turns 26 years old this September, was a former 4th round pick of the Coyotes way back in 2014, didn't played AAA hockey until he was 16 years old, and has just 26 NHL games under his belt. After his OHL career finished he spent 5 years in the AHL and slowly but steadily improved each year. This season he popped off with 19 points in 16 AHL games and that earned him a call-up to the NHL where he scored 10 goals and had 13 points in 21 games. He's unlikely to keep up a 26.3% shooting percentage but he also had some very good underlying numbers as well. He's generally described as a hard-working, pest type player.

Did I mention that he played his OHL hockey with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds where he was selected in the ninth round of the OHL draft by Kyle Dubas and coached by Sheldon Keefe? Certainly sounds like a very intriguing late-bloomer type player that the Leafs might be interested in this offseason.

I'm definitely rather roll the dice with younger guys hoping they develop a bit than more old guys looking for another kick at the can.

Here's someone by the name of Steve Dangle interviewing him way back in 2014:

Quote from: https://theleafsnation.com/2014/06/27/what-are-the-odds-draft-prospect-michael-bunting/Q: You didn't play Triple-AAA until last year because it's too expensive. If you don't mind me asking, what's the price difference between Double-AA and Triple-AAA these days.

A: It's definitely a couple thousand, for sure. Triple-AAA was at least $5,000 and I think Double-AA was $2,500 or $3,000 so there was a huge difference in what I was paying.

Q: When you were playing Double-AA was there ever a point where you thought 'I should be in Triple-AAA. I smoke these guys!' or 'I know I can earn it."?

A: Well in my Minor Midget year and Midget year I definitely had the thought that I should hop up and play Triple-AAA because I had a few Triple-AAA teams wanting me to play. The thing was I had a really close core of friends who were on my Double-AA team and I really enjoyed the coaches I was with. I knew 'If I stay here I don't have to pay as much money, I'll have good coaches, I'll have good friends, and I'll still have fun playing hockey.

Q: Fun is kind of important I guess.

A: Yeah. That's what helped me out, for sure. I played hockey for fun. I did it as an extra activity and I enjoyed doing it. I think that if I was playing maybe a higher level that whole time and, you know, trying to make it a business I'd definitely have a different mindset going into every single game that I have now. Like I now think of hockey as – yes it can be my lifestyle but I also love playing the game. I just really love playing the game.

Q: In other words, while you have a passion for the sport, you do have a life outside of it, and you understand that.

A: I think that definitely helped me because a lot of kids growing up, all they had, I guess their parents put it into their head 'You need to do this for hockey, you need to do that, that, that.' Then a lot of kids, when they get older, get sick of the game, right? Because it's all they've been doing is hockey, hockey, hockey. So I feel that with the path that I had – I played hockey, I loved it, and I also had a life out of it when I was younger. It kept my priorities straight and I still love the game, and maybe some other kids that were just focused on hockey kind of fell off of it.

Q: You've been through a huge jump in the past year. What was your first OHL season like this year?

A: It was unbelievable. This was the year of my life, really. I enjoyed it so much. With the whole Soo Greyhounds staff and organization – they helped me out. They knew definitely where I came from my development might be a little bit different from others. Sheldon Keefe, the head coach, definitely took his time to make sure that everything was right on track. Director of Player Development Wes Clark always made sure that I was on track and I knew what was going on. They just really helped my game improve substantially, for sure. They brought me to a new level so this year was definitely, definitely the greatest hockey year I've ever had.

I have officially set myself up to be crushingly disappointed if we don't sign him.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2021, 10:48:22 AM
Was scanning through the list of pending UFAs to see if there were any interesting middle-6 forwards who could potentially replace Hyman and/or Kerfoot if we lose them to FA/expansion. A couple of names immediately jumped out at me in Mikael Granlund and Blake Coleman, both of whom have been linked to the Leafs in the past. Jaden Schwartz was another tempting name if he's looking for a show-me type deal after a down-ish season.

Then the name of 25-year old, Group 6 UFA Michael Bunting caught my eye. I recalled an Arizona Coyotes reporter/observer speak pretty highly of him earlier this year. Some quick background info: he's 5'11" and 197lbs, turns 26 years old this September, was a former 4th round pick of the Coyotes way back in 2014, didn't played AAA hockey until he was 16 years old, and has just 26 NHL games under his belt. After his OHL career finished he spent 5 years in the AHL and slowly but steadily improved each year. This season he popped off with 19 points in 16 AHL games and that earned him a call-up to the NHL where he scored 10 goals and had 13 points in 21 games. He's unlikely to keep up a 26.3% shooting percentage but he also had some very good underlying numbers as well. He's generally described as a hard-working, pest type player.

Did I mention that he played his OHL hockey with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds where he was selected in the ninth round of the OHL draft by Kyle Dubas and coached by Sheldon Keefe? Certainly sounds like a very intriguing late-bloomer type player that the Leafs might be interested in this offseason.

Sounds like an interesting player and definitely a Dubas type of player.

Oh yeah meant to add he's from Scarborough and the Leafs were his favourite team growing up.

In regards to Rielly, I think you move him, if you have a plan in place of using that money somewhere else that may be more useful.

I'm a goalie fanboy and generally don't blame the goalie very often, but let's be honest, Jack Campbell was simply not good enough in the Playoffs. He is a highly competent back up and for that, I'd keep him around, but if the opportunity came along to add a better goalie, I think you have to seriously consider moving pieces to make room for that goalie. Whether that's Mrazek, Grubauer or someone else, you need to improve that position. Mrazek may be a possible target as the other Carolina goalie seems to have moved past him on the depth chart

To me, Andersen is looking for a new home this summer. Jack's a nice guy and all, and seems like a genuinely good teammate but this team is not getting past the 1st or 2nd round with him as the starter. He gives no confidence of making the save when you need it.

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 04, 2021, 11:53:21 AM
In regards to Rielly, I think you move him, if you have a plan in place of using that money somewhere else that may be more useful.

I'm a goalie fanboy and generally don't blame the goalie very often, but let's be honest, Jack Campbell was simply not good enough in the Playoffs. He is a highly competent back up and for that, I'd keep him around, but if the opportunity came along to add a better goalie, I think you have to seriously consider moving pieces to make room for that goalie. Whether that's Mrazek, Grubauer or someone else, you need to improve that position. Mrazek may be a possible target as the other Carolina goalie seems to have moved past him on the depth chart

To me, Andersen is looking for a new home this summer. Jack's a nice guy and all, and seems like a genuinely good teammate but this team is not getting past the 1st or 2nd round with him as the starter. He gives no confidence of making the save when you need it.

I agree with that. Campbell was very good, except for the stoppable goals and there were too many of them.

There's some (not super reliable) rumblings out there that Hyman is looking for $5M+ per.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 04, 2021, 01:45:12 PM
There's some (not super reliable) rumblings out there that Hyman is looking for $5M+ per.

Bye Hyman.

Quote from: Frank E on June 04, 2021, 02:15:20 PM

Quote from: bustaheims on June 04, 2021, 01:45:12 PM
There's some (not super reliable) rumblings out there that Hyman is looking for $5M+ per.

Bye Hyman.

Yup.

For context
https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1400842852951904261
https://twitter.com/koshtorontosun/status/1400841384391757831

Quote from: Frank E on June 04, 2021, 02:15:20 PM

Quote from: bustaheims on June 04, 2021, 01:45:12 PM
There's some (not super reliable) rumblings out there that Hyman is looking for $5M+ per.

Bye Hyman.

The specific rumour (from an unreliable Edmonton-based reporter) was that he turned down a $5mil offer from the Leafs. That seems to have been debunked about as much as a rumour could be but Chris Johnston followed that up by saying he wouldn't be surprised to see some teams offer him something in the 5's and even high 5's. That I can see, gotta imagine Ken Holland would be the first GM to call him when/if he becomes available. Only way he stays is if he goes the old hometown discount route

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2021, 02:41:00 PM

Quote from: Frank E on June 04, 2021, 02:15:20 PM

Quote from: bustaheims on June 04, 2021, 01:45:12 PM
There's some (not super reliable) rumblings out there that Hyman is looking for $5M+ per.

Bye Hyman.

The specific rumour (from an unreliable Edmonton-based reporter) was that he turned down a $5mil offer from the Leafs. That seems to have been debunked about as much as a rumour could be but Chris Johnston followed that up by saying he wouldn't be surprised to see some teams offer him something in the 5's and even high 5's. That I can see, gotta imagine Ken Holland would be the first GM to call him when/if he becomes available. Only way he stays is if he goes the old hometown discount route

I hate the salary cap.

Quote from: Frank E on June 04, 2021, 02:49:24 PM
I hate the salary cap.

I wish it at least allowed MLSE to buy a million copies of his book or something.

Being a Leaf fan is like being a Crack addict, you keep coming back and its never good for you.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2021, 02:41:00 PM

Quote from: Frank E on June 04, 2021, 02:15:20 PM

Quote from: bustaheims on June 04, 2021, 01:45:12 PM
There's some (not super reliable) rumblings out there that Hyman is looking for $5M+ per.

Bye Hyman.

The specific rumour (from an unreliable Edmonton-based reporter) was that he turned down a $5mil offer from the Leafs. That seems to have been debunked about as much as a rumour could be but Chris Johnston followed that up by saying he wouldn't be surprised to see some teams offer him something in the 5's and even high 5's. That I can see, gotta imagine Ken Holland would be the first GM to call him when/if he becomes available. Only way he stays is if he goes the old hometown discount route

Hyman should get Connor Brown money who put up 37 goals, including 5 shorties, the last 2 years not playing with M&M.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2021, 06:08:36 PMHyman should get Connor Brown money who put up 37 goals, including 5 shorties, the last 2 years not playing with M&M.

Except that, when Brown signed that contract, he had only scored 24 in the previous two seasons. That's roughly Hyman's single season pace over the last three seasons.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 04, 2021, 07:43:10 PM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2021, 06:08:36 PMHyman should get Connor Brown money who put up 37 goals, including 5 shorties, the last 2 years not playing with M&M.

Except that, when Brown signed that contract, he had only scored 24 in the previous two seasons. That's roughly Hyman's single season pace over the last three seasons.

Brown didn't play with Matthews and Marner when he scored 16 his first year in Ottawa before he signed his contract and Brown didn't play with M&M his last year here...he was 3rd, 4th line.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2021, 07:49:48 PM

Quote from: bustaheims on June 04, 2021, 07:43:10 PM

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2021, 06:08:36 PMHyman should get Connor Brown money who put up 37 goals, including 5 shorties, the last 2 years not playing with M&M.

Except that, when Brown signed that contract, he had only scored 24 in the previous two seasons. That's roughly Hyman's single season pace over the last three seasons.

Brown didn't play with Matthews and Marner when he scored 16 his first year in Ottawa before he signed his contract and Brown didn't play with M&M his last year here...he was 3rd, 4th line.

But that's because the Leafs decided that Brown was a 3rd, 4th line player and have decided that Hyman is a 1st line player, albeit a third wheel on their first line.

https://twitter.com/noah_banx/status/1401035440929574912

Quote from: herman on June 05, 2021, 11:14:30 PM
https://twitter.com/noah_banx/status/1401035440929574912

There are few players that fit all this criteria. Evander Kane maybe? The toughest piece to match is the get excited part.

Quote from: herman on June 05, 2021, 11:14:30 PM
https://twitter.com/noah_banx/status/1401035440929574912

Eichel

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 06, 2021, 08:47:02 AM

Eichel
[/quote]

That's the one everyone's going to talk about. Not sure how they'd ever make that happen.

Can you imagine the look on Mitch's face when he answers his cell and Kyle thanks him for his service and says "I hope you enjoy Buffalo, by the way the Anchor Bar has the best wings".

Clearly, they're talking about JvR or Andreas Johnsson.

Rackell has only one year left on his deal and I think would make for a nice Hyman replacement.

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 06, 2021, 10:46:12 AM

That's the one everyone's going to talk about. Not sure how they'd ever make that happen.

Eichel is the only one that would get me excited that I can think of but it's going to cost you Marner. Not sure how Id feel about trading him..

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 06, 2021, 12:28:45 PM
That's the only one that would get me excited but it's going to cost you Marner. Not sure how Id feel about trading him..

As much as I like Marner, I don't understand for the life of me why Buffalo would do that deal. If I'm Buffalo, I'd rather trade Eichel for the proverbial two quarters a dime and a nickel because at least then you can sell the fans that you're tearing down the team and trying to build back up. If you trade Eichel for Marner you're basically saying you're going to try to do the same thing you've been doing, only built around someone who isn't as good as Eichel and is more expensive.

Quote from: Nik on June 06, 2021, 12:31:29 PM
As much as I like Marner, I don't understand for the life of me why Buffalo would do that deal. If I'm Buffalo, I'd rather trade Eichel for the proverbial two quarters a dime and a nickel because at least then you can sell the fans that you're tearing down the team and trying to build back up. If you trade Eichel for Marner you're basically saying you're going to try to do the same thing you've been doing, only built around someone who isn't as good as Eichel and is more expensive.

I agree with you that would probably be the smarter thing for Buffalo to do, but it's not like the Sabres have a long history of making the right decisions. Selling fans on another rebuild after 10 straight years of missing the playoffs would be pretty tough, and I can see ownership being tempted to solve this Eichel problem by replacing him with another young, legit top tier talent in the league. And if they go that route then I don't think they're going to find anyone available even nearly as good as Marner (if Mitch was available, which he probably isn't). They also might not mind the slightly higher AAV since it also comes at a drastically reduced salary (Eichel gets paid $10mil in each of his next 5 years, while Marner gets paid just $24.8mil total in the next 4 years if the Leafs take his next signing bonus).

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2021, 01:18:15 PM
I agree with you that would probably be the smarter thing for Buffalo to do, but it's not like the Sabres have a long history of making the right decisions. Selling fans on another rebuild after 10 straight years of missing the playoffs would be pretty tough, and I can see ownership being tempted to solve this Eichel problem by replacing him with another young, legit top tier talent in the league. And if they go that route then I don't think they're going to find anyone available even nearly as good as Marner (if Mitch was available, which he probably isn't). They also might not mind the slightly higher AAV since it also comes at a drastically reduced salary (Eichel gets paid $10mil in each of his next 5 years, while Marner gets paid just $24.8mil total in the next 4 years if the Leafs take his next signing bonus).

Your point about the real dollars owed is well taken but I think you always have to be careful about "Well, this team is stupid so they may do dumb things". I get it, and I rule it out, but I think the bad decisions most teams make are defensible decisions that just don't work out.

And with regards to "selling fans" on a move...I mean, I don't think there are a lot of Sabres fans out there labouring under the perception that whatever happens with them isn't effectively already a rebuild. Inserting Marner in Eichel's place doesn't make that any less true.

Quote from: Nik on June 06, 2021, 01:26:37 PM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2021, 01:18:15 PM
I agree with you that would probably be the smarter thing for Buffalo to do, but it's not like the Sabres have a long history of making the right decisions. Selling fans on another rebuild after 10 straight years of missing the playoffs would be pretty tough, and I can see ownership being tempted to solve this Eichel problem by replacing him with another young, legit top tier talent in the league. And if they go that route then I don't think they're going to find anyone available even nearly as good as Marner (if Mitch was available, which he probably isn't). They also might not mind the slightly higher AAV since it also comes at a drastically reduced salary (Eichel gets paid $10mil in each of his next 5 years, while Marner gets paid just $24.8mil total in the next 4 years if the Leafs take his next signing bonus).

Your point about the real dollars owed is well taken but I think you always have to be careful about "Well, this team is stupid so they may do dumb things". I get it, and I rule it out, but I think the bad decisions most teams make are defensible decisions that just don't work out.

And with regards to "selling fans" on a move...I mean, I don't think there are a lot of Sabres fans out there labouring under the perception that whatever happens with them isn't effectively already a rebuild. Inserting Marner in Eichel's place doesn't make that any less true.

Nik you make a good point but I offer a friendly edit: delete the the final part of your last sentence beginning with the word "labouring."

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

I've got time for Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome, Dylan Larkin (quite unlikely), maybe Christian Dvorak*, Oliver Bjorkstrand ($$), Travis Konecny, Alex Nylander (RFA), Jakub Vrana (RFA)

* Another personal support acquisition for Marner, eh?

Quote from: herman on June 06, 2021, 05:27:07 PM
I've got time for Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome, Dylan Larkin (quite unlikely), maybe Christian Dvorak*, Oliver Bjorkstrand ($$), Travis Konecny, Alex Nylander (RFA), Jakub Vrana (RFA)

* Another personal support acquisition for Marner, eh?

Chychrun could be an interesting add, though his defence took a step back as his offence grew.
Strome is a bit of a buy-low candidate, but don't love the $3M cap hit if he doesn't regain some production.
Larkin is also a buy-low candidate with a big cap hit.
Dvorak hasn't shown himself to be worth his cap hit yet. Would need to include salary retention for me to have interest.
Bjorkstrand feels like a lesser Hyman who gets paid similar to what Zach will get as a UFA.
A. Nylander doesn't interest me at all. Missed the entire 20/21 season, and didn't show much before that. For super cheap, maybe.

Konecny is interesting. Vrana could also be, depending on his next contract.

Basically, you have too much time for too many players.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 07, 2021, 10:56:49 AM

Quote from: herman on June 06, 2021, 05:27:07 PM
I've got time for Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome, Dylan Larkin (quite unlikely), maybe Christian Dvorak*, Oliver Bjorkstrand ($$), Travis Konecny, Alex Nylander (RFA), Jakub Vrana (RFA)

* Another personal support acquisition for Marner, eh?

Chychrun could be an interesting add, though his defence took a step back as his offence grew.
Strome is a bit of a buy-low candidate, but don't love the $3M cap hit if he doesn't regain some production.
Larkin is also a buy-low candidate with a big cap hit.
Dvorak hasn't shown himself to be worth his cap hit yet. Would need to include salary retention for me to have interest.
Bjorkstrand feels like a lesser Hyman who gets paid similar to what Zach will get as a UFA.
A. Nylander doesn't interest me at all. Missed the entire 20/21 season, and didn't show much before that. For super cheap, maybe.

Konecny is interesting. Vrana could also be, depending on his next contract.

Basically, you have too much time for too many players.

This offseason, there is more time (than expected  :'() to cast a wide net for potential buy-low reclamation projects. The nature of reclamation projects sort of requires having as many options as cap-feasible to see what shakes out. I've got time, but pretty differing amounts.

Chychrun strikes me as a Rielly replacement if it ever comes to that.
Larkin is unlikely to come into play, but if Detroit doesn't think he's peaking in their contention window several years from now, he's a Hyman/Kerfoot hybrid, Tavares-insurance sort of fish. Salary only works if Andersen/Hyman/Kerfoot are all out and replaced with cheapos.

Strome, Dvorak, Bjorkstrand, Nylander are tire kicks to see if they come in low low low.

Slightly outside the scope CJ outlined for his player in mind, but if Winnipeg fully implodes, I want to see what it'd take to get Ehlers.

I can hear the backlash on this already but ....Nylander for Eichel straight up.

Quote from: RedLeaf on June 07, 2021, 11:39:01 AM
I can hear the backlash on this already but ....Nylander for Eichel straight up.

I'm not sure there's a ton of backlash coming your way outside of Buffalo not being willing to do that.

Quote from: Nik on June 07, 2021, 11:41:47 AM

Quote from: RedLeaf on June 07, 2021, 11:39:01 AM
I can hear the backlash on this already but ....Nylander for Eichel straight up.

I'm not sure there's a ton of backlash coming your way outside of Buffalo not being willing to do that.

Yeah. You're probably right. At least not without another piece or two.

Quote from: Nik on June 07, 2021, 11:41:47 AM

Quote from: RedLeaf on June 07, 2021, 11:39:01 AM
I can hear the backlash on this already but ....Nylander for Eichel straight up.

I'm not sure there's a ton of backlash coming your way outside of Buffalo not being willing to do that.

That's a no brainer for T.O minus the money. Leafs need to add like Nik says. I would trade Marner for him and Buff may not go for it.

https://twitter.com/globekpd/status/1401903134822354946

Boston writer has opinions on how to fix the Leafs.

Yes, if there's one thing you need, it's the guy with a career .908 playoff SV% who has made it out of the first round once.

Quote from: Nik on June 07, 2021, 01:05:48 PM
Yes, if there's one thing you need, it's the guy with a career .908 playoff SV% who has made it out of the first round once.

Never mind his "stellar" .907 Sv% over the last 3 regular seasons. Yes, he's a two-time Vezina winner and he could turn it around, but his play does not inspire confidence.

Also, sure, let's move the guy who, over the last 3 seasons, is 11th in the league in goals and 21st in points while retaining half his salary without taking back an NHL player who is under contract. And move Nylander for the same. Just free up cap space. Who needs to get value in return?

Quote from: Heroic Shrimp on June 07, 2021, 12:56:25 PM
https://twitter.com/globekpd/status/1401903134822354946

Boston writer has opinions on how to fix the Leafs.

Johnny T can't be traded and Nylander is a keeper.

Quote from: Highlander on June 07, 2021, 02:58:30 PM

Quote from: Heroic Shrimp on June 07, 2021, 12:56:25 PM
https://twitter.com/globekpd/status/1401903134822354946

Boston writer has opinions on how to fix the Leafs.

Johnny T can't be traded and Nylander is a keeper.

Anybody can be convinced to be traded. NMCs only mean that a player needs to agree to it. If the right deal comes along, I would trade anyone.

Is Chychrun actually available?

Quote from: Jolly good show chaps on June 07, 2021, 03:27:00 PM
Is Chychrun actually available?

I don't think so because he's 1 of 3 D men signed for next year, but you never know.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 07, 2021, 02:53:26 PM
Also, sure, let's move the guy who, over the last 3 seasons, is 11th in the league in goals and 21st in points while retaining half his salary without taking back an NHL player who is under contract. And move Nylander for the same. Just free up cap space. Who needs to get value in return?

But it would be nice to get out of that mistake and have the cap space to make even more biggerer and stupiderer mistakes. 

Quote from: Rob on June 07, 2021, 04:26:21 PM

But it would be nice to get out of that mistake and have the cap space to make even more biggerer and stupiderer mistakes.

Ah, yes. The compound mistake, where you get less production for the same cap impact.

Quote from: bustaheims on June 07, 2021, 04:29:59 PM

Quote from: Rob on June 07, 2021, 04:26:21 PM

But it would be nice to get out of that mistake and have the cap space to make even more biggerer and stupiderer mistakes.

Ah, yes. The compound mistake, where you get less production for the same cap impact.

.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210608/9ad9bfc2b8d27ae62efc18a514826fe3.gif)

This is my somewhat-boring armchair GM attempt:

Kerfoot-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Tavares-Marner
Robertson-Granlund-Bunting
Galchenyuk-Engvall-Spezza
Anderson

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Hutton

Campbell
Ullmark

-Dermott gets taken in the expansion draft
-Granlund is signed for $3.75mil, Bunting/Galchenyuk/Hutton signed for $950k, Ullmark signed for $3.25mil
-Team has just under $200k in cap space. But that also comes with a 22-man roster. The Leafs could waive Anderson/not have a 13th forward and have a bit more room to play with.

Some general/scattered thoughts:

-The Leafs can't have a bottom-6 that produces almost zero offence again. This past season the 3rd line frequently contained guys like Mikheyev, Kerfoot, Hyman, Engvall, and Simmonds and almost every combination of them had difficulty producing goals. And the 4th line when it had 2 or 3 of Thornton/Spezza/Simmonds generally couldn't provide much either because of their lack of speed. I think this combination of bottom-6 players has a lot more speed/offence while also not being massive defensive liabilities.

-I especially very much resisted having a Mikheyev-Kerfoot combination on the 3rd line like we saw for much of last season. And the best way to do that was to just not have either of them on it. Now they can both provide speed/defensive acumen in the top-6.

-Matthews with Marner or Matthews with Nylander isn't something to get too worked up about, but I would like to see them go back to the OG pairings. I'd probably keep those wing pairs together though so if they wanted to change it just swap the centres.

-No Bogosian was tough. He really did exceed all expectations and was a solid bottom pairing guy. Not having him is a combination of two things: 1) him coming off 2 pretty good seasons might set him up for a $2-3mil type contract and that's not something the Leafs can afford and 2) the Leafs need to give Liljegren at least some sort of opportunity to crack the line-up. If Bogosian is here that doesn't exist, he's just not getting scratched. Bringing back Hutton gives Liljegren some legitimate competition for the 6th spot so he'll still need to earn his place on the team.

-Ullmark is mostly a fill-in, any of the UFA goalies could possibly fit in there for a similar price.

 I like your line up...Ullmark would be our #1...would love to get him at that price..line up looks good. Dubas will have to do some kind of deal with Seattle to keep the top 4 D men as 1 of them must be made available because as if now, we only have 4 that meet the requirements. Same with forwards. Kerfoot and Engvall with the big 4 are the only ones. I think Dubas leaves Holl unprotected and will go with Dermott if he gets taken.
Also agree that I think Hyman is gone. Leafs simply can't afford him.
Good job an great explanation.

I'll be honest, I have no idea who Bunting is.

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 08, 2021, 10:58:19 AM
I'll be honest, I have no idea who Bunting is.

Carlton posted this about him the other day:

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2021, 10:48:22 AM
Was scanning through the list of pending UFAs to see if there were any interesting middle-6 forwards who could potentially replace Hyman and/or Kerfoot if we lose them to FA/expansion. A couple of names immediately jumped out at me in Mikael Granlund and Blake Coleman, both of whom have been linked to the Leafs in the past. Jaden Schwartz was another tempting name if he's looking for a show-me type deal after a down-ish season.

Then the name of 25-year old, Group 6 UFA Michael Bunting caught my eye. I recalled an Arizona Coyotes reporter/observer speak pretty highly of him earlier this year. Some quick background info: he's 5'11" and 197lbs, turns 26 years old this September, was a former 4th round pick of the Coyotes way back in 2014, didn't played AAA hockey until he was 16 years old, and has just 26 NHL games under his belt. After his OHL career finished he spent 5 years in the AHL and slowly but steadily improved each year. This season he popped off with 19 points in 16 AHL games and that earned him a call-up to the NHL where he scored 10 goals and had 13 points in 21 games. He's unlikely to keep up a 26.3% shooting percentage but he also had some very good underlying numbers as well. He's generally described as a hard-working, pest type player.

Did I mention that he played his OHL hockey with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds where he was selected in the ninth round of the OHL draft by Kyle Dubas and coached by Sheldon Keefe? Certainly sounds like a very intriguing late-bloomer type player that the Leafs might be interested in this offseason.

He will be in every line-up I post for next season until I'm told otherwise.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 08, 2021, 11:03:58 AM
He will be in every line-up I post for next season until I'm told otherwise.

I don't see him getting a lot of money so if he got along with Keefe and Dubas in the Soo, there would be a fit.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 08, 2021, 11:03:58 AM
He will be in every line-up I post for next season until I'm told otherwise.

I'll use him in EA NHL 20 and let you know if he's any good.

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 08, 2021, 11:35:22 AM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 08, 2021, 11:03:58 AM
He will be in every line-up I post for next season until I'm told otherwise.

I'll use him in EA NHL 20 and let you know if he's any good.

Ah, the Buffalo Sabres scouting method. Pretty sure the whole department is sharing one account too.

Quote from: herman on June 02, 2021, 08:43:47 AM
To LAK: Mitch Marner (signing bonus paid, 4x 10.903M), Morgan Rielly (1x 5M)
To TOR: 2022 1st, Quinton Byfield, Akil Thomas, Olli Maataa, Matt Roy, whatever buriable spare parts they want to dump

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1402297242481008640
Let's goooooooooo

Yes I know my proposed return is low. Throw in Turcotte or Vilardi. Or the recently signed Iafallo.

Quote from: herman on June 08, 2021, 11:48:14 AM

Quote from: herman on June 02, 2021, 08:43:47 AM
To LAK: Mitch Marner (signing bonus paid, 4x 10.903M), Morgan Rielly (1x 5M)
To TOR: 2022 1st, Quinton Byfield, Akil Thomas, Olli Maataa, Matt Roy, whatever buriable spare parts they want to dump

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1402297242481008640
Let's goooooooooo

Yes I know my proposed return is low. Throw in Turcotte or Vilardi. Or the recently signed Iafallo.

Iafallo would be nice.

https://twitter.com/tlndc/status/1403699753112653829

When Bunting becomes world famous just remember where you heard of him first.

https://twitter.com/jhanhky/status/1403748367780483075

https://twitter.com/KwnStorm/status/1403424528848535553

Some pretty high praise for Bunting here but I dig it.

Blahda blahda blahda.

They don't need new personnel.  They need a new CULTURE OF WINNERDOM to replace the CULTURE OF LOSERDOM they got now.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

I think it's pretty simple for the Leafs. Replace the sucking with not sucking and I think they get this done.

Quote from: Dappleganger on June 12, 2021, 01:43:51 PM
I think it's pretty simple for the Leafs. Replace the sucking with not sucking and I think they get this done.

Blowing?

Quote from: herman on June 12, 2021, 03:11:00 PM

Quote from: Dappleganger on June 12, 2021, 01:43:51 PM
I think it's pretty simple for the Leafs. Replace the sucking with not sucking and I think they get this done.

Blowing?

No, they've done plenty of that as well.

Bring Naz home.

Quote from: BrownRolo on June 12, 2021, 09:02:46 PM
Bring Naz home.

Hard pass...we don't need another playoff suspension and the trust is long gone.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 12, 2021, 09:08:50 PM

Quote from: BrownRolo on June 12, 2021, 09:02:46 PM
Bring Naz home.

Hard pass...we don't need another playoff suspension and the trust is long gone.

He probably costs too much but if somehow you could get him at a deep discount I'd totally bring him back.

https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/1404422212631908355
Would you

Quote from: herman on June 14, 2021, 09:18:25 AM
https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/1404422212631908355
Would you

Depending on the ask. Definitely need to consider.

That's tough to say. It would have been great to get him when Boston traded him or when Calgary traded him but now as a 28-year old about to maybe get $8mil or more on his next deal? I'm a little more hesitant.

If there was a world where he REALLY wanted to live close to the ROM and would take $7mil and the Leafs had a trade lined up to move Rielly for a pretty big return I'd consider it though.

When thinking about blue liners I'd want the Leafs to get, Dougie isn't at the top of the list but he could be a nice fit on the problematic power play...

I would do it. I like Hamilton.

I think you'd need to know the other bits of the story. What could the team get for Rielly, what you'd have to give Carolina in the sign and trade, what sort of deal Hamilton would need...

If you could come out of it with, say, a couple of good prospects and a 1st or 2nd/3rd and Hamilton is a reasonable-ish deal, sure.

Quote from: Nik on June 14, 2021, 11:50:54 AM
I think you'd need to know the other bits of the story. What could the team get for Rielly, what you'd have to give Carolina in the sign and trade, what sort of deal Hamilton would need...

If you could come out of it with, say, a couple of good prospects and a 1st or 2nd/3rd and Hamilton is a reasonable-ish deal, sure.

Yeah. I think, at the very least, the Leafs need to have those conversations, and figure out what makes sense. Could this be one of the mythical 3-team deals? Would Carolina take a deal that has Rielly as the centerpiece instead of being focused around picks and prospects?

Adding Hamilton in the right deal would certainly improve the team in the short-term. The Leafs have 3 years with cost certainty among their current core pieces other than Rielly. It's probably the right time to make a big move, and adding Hamilton while subtracting Rielly seems like the most straightforward big move the team can make without further diluting the talent up front.

I'm sort of stuck between two extremes:
a) roll it back with the whole main crew, maybe some minor modifications with the cheapo brigade (younger, faster). It was honestly a very good roster (see regular season results, even against the North).

b) Marner out, Hamilton or Eichel in (and whatever crazypants maneuvers are required), fill in the bottom 6 with players very good at being extremely boring and fetching the puck and really learn to flip the switch as a team between high octane and ACC-ice sludge hockey.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2021, 10:48:22 AM
Was scanning through the list of pending UFAs to see if there were any interesting middle-6 forwards who could potentially replace Hyman and/or Kerfoot if we lose them to FA/expansion. A couple of names immediately jumped out at me in Mikael Granlund and Blake Coleman, both of whom have been linked to the Leafs in the past. Jaden Schwartz was another tempting name if he's looking for a show-me type deal after a down-ish season.

Then the name of 25-year old, Group 6 UFA Michael Bunting caught my eye. I recalled an Arizona Coyotes reporter/observer speak pretty highly of him earlier this year. Some quick background info: he's 5'11" and 197lbs, turns 26 years old this September, was a former 4th round pick of the Coyotes way back in 2014, didn't played AAA hockey until he was 16 years old, and has just 26 NHL games under his belt. After his OHL career finished he spent 5 years in the AHL and slowly but steadily improved each year. This season he popped off with 19 points in 16 AHL games and that earned him a call-up to the NHL where he scored 10 goals and had 13 points in 21 games. He's unlikely to keep up a 26.3% shooting percentage but he also had some very good underlying numbers as well. He's generally described as a hard-working, pest type player.

Did I mention that he played his OHL hockey with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds where he was selected in the ninth round of the OHL draft by Kyle Dubas and coached by Sheldon Keefe? Certainly sounds like a very intriguing late-bloomer type player that the Leafs might be interested in this offseason.

https://twitter.com/JMallory9/status/1405514252924882949
I read that initially as uninspiring... but then my brain corrected  :)

Quote from: https://jmalloryhockey.substack.com/p/examining-michael-buntings-goal-scoringSpecial Teams Usage: He thrived as a net-front player on the power play tipping pucks and cleaning up rebounds. It would be prudent of Bunting's potential suitors to have a plan in place to emulate his PP situation in ARI if they want a comparable PP impact next season.

Hmmmm

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 17, 2021, 08:51:10 AM

Quote from: https://jmalloryhockey.substack.com/p/examining-michael-buntings-goal-scoringSpecial Teams Usage: He thrived as a net-front player on the power play tipping pucks and cleaning up rebounds. It would be prudent of Bunting's potential suitors to have a plan in place to emulate his PP situation in ARI if they want a comparable PP impact next season.

Hmmmm

Quote from: https://jmalloryhockey.substack.com/p/examining-michael-buntings-goal-scoringDeployment: He was deployed perfectly as a garbage man (finisher), primarily off the rush, on a line with two impactful and shifty play-driving forwards.

This part didn't get you first?

Quote from: herman on June 17, 2021, 09:11:39 AM

Quote from: https://jmalloryhockey.substack.com/p/examining-michael-buntings-goal-scoringDeployment: He was deployed perfectly as a garbage man (finisher), primarily off the rush, on a line with two impactful and shifty play-driving forwards.

This part didn't get you first?

3rd line Michael Bunting, don't read this...

...

...

Top-6 Michael Bunting, hello.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 17, 2021, 08:51:10 AM

Quote from: https://jmalloryhockey.substack.com/p/examining-michael-buntings-goal-scoringSpecial Teams Usage: He thrived as a net-front player on the power play tipping pucks and cleaning up rebounds. It would be prudent of Bunting's potential suitors to have a plan in place to emulate his PP situation in ARI if they want a comparable PP impact next season.

Hmmmm

Hyman replacement....sign him!

I like the idea of signing Bunting but if the move of the offseason is let Hyman walk and replace him with Bunting we aren't going to be a great team next year.

Quote from: L K on June 17, 2021, 10:23:10 AM
I like the idea of signing Bunting but if the move of the offseason is let Hyman walk and replace him with Bunting we aren't going to be a great team next year.

Yeah I'm at least somewhat kidding around here. I mean I definitely want the Leafs to sign him but expectations wouldn't exactly be through the roof. The good news is he of course wouldn't exactly eat into the cap space the Leafs would have been likely earmarking Hyman for (I'd guess $4.5mil-ish). With him and Kerfoot both potentially gone the Leafs actually have a decent amount of cap space to play around with.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 17, 2021, 10:38:15 AM

Quote from: L K on June 17, 2021, 10:23:10 AM
I like the idea of signing Bunting but if the move of the offseason is let Hyman walk and replace him with Bunting we aren't going to be a great team next year.

Yeah I'm at least somewhat kidding around here. I mean I definitely want the Leafs to sign him but expectations wouldn't exactly be through the roof. The good news is he of course wouldn't exactly eat into the cap space the Leafs would have been likely earmarking Hyman for (I'd guess $4.5mil-ish). With him and Kerfoot both potentially gone the Leafs actually have a decent amount of cap space to play around with.

He's a star and we need to sign him. You can't build him up for a big letdown...that's not fair lol. From reading about him I think he's a late bloomer, much like Hyman. I'm sure Dubas and Keefe know him well. I guess we'll find out in a month or so.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 17, 2021, 10:38:15 AM

Quote from: L K on June 17, 2021, 10:23:10 AM
I like the idea of signing Bunting but if the move of the offseason is let Hyman walk and replace him with Bunting we aren't going to be a great team next year.

Yeah I'm at least somewhat kidding around here. I mean I definitely want the Leafs to sign him but expectations wouldn't exactly be through the roof. The good news is he of course wouldn't exactly eat into the cap space the Leafs would have been likely earmarking Hyman for (I'd guess $4.5mil-ish). With him and Kerfoot both potentially gone the Leafs actually have a decent amount of cap space to play around with.

Me too.  I really do like the idea of guys like Bunting.  It seems like he would be a guy who at worst case can play in the bottom six and be a middling player but potentially has that complementary game to play PP or top 6 as long as he's the 3rd wheel to Matthews+winger or Tavares+winger.

With rumbling that Coleman might want to go play in Dallas to be around family next year (damn I wanted him as the "Hyman replacement") I think we need to get more guys who we don't feel as bad about moving up and down the lineup.  Mikheyev playing in the top 6 is bad because he isn't a guy who can pass and he can't shoot. 

If the Leafs wanted to go after one of the bigger names in free agency this summer, here's a way for them to make that possible:

1) One of Kerfoot/Dermott gets selected in the expansion draft, the other gets dealt for some kind of futures return to clear cap/roster space

2) Foligno comes back on a 1-year, $2.5mil contract. This might seem a bit low but we're also talking about a guy who's scored at a 37-point pace over his last 4 seasons and isn't getting any younger. I think he could get $3-3.5mil from someone else but he does us a solid for being a jerk and getting injured after we gave up a 1st for him.

3) Galchenyuk, Bunting, and Hutton all sign 1-year deals at $950k to fill out the roster.

At this point in time we have $8.2mil in cap space with 12 forwards signed, 7 defencemen, and 1 goalie.

So that would give the Leafs room to either a) sign Hall to a $6mil AAV deal + have $2mil to sign/acquire a goalie or b) trade Holl to clear out $2mil and go after Hamilton on a $8mil AAV + have $2mil to sign/acquire a goalie.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 17, 2021, 11:00:26 AM
If the Leafs wanted to go after one of the bigger names in free agency this summer, here's a way for them to make that possible:

1) One of Kerfoot/Dermott gets selected in the expansion draft, the other gets dealt for some kind of futures return to clear cap/roster space

2) Foligno comes back on a 1-year, $2.5mil contract. This might seem a bit low but we're also talking about a guy who's scored at a 37-point pace over his last 4 seasons and isn't getting any younger. I think he could get $3-3.5mil from someone else but he does us a solid for being a jerk and getting injured after we gave up a 1st for him.

3) Galchenyuk, Bunting, and Hutton all sign 1-year deals at $950k to fill out the roster.

At this point in time we have $8.2mil in cap space with 12 forwards signed, 7 defencemen, and 1 goalie.

So that would give the Leafs room to either a) sign Hall to a $6mil AAV deal + have $2mil to sign/acquire a goalie or b) trade Holl to clear out $2mil and go after Hamilton on a $8mil AAV + have $2mil to sign/acquire a goalie.

Well get on the phone to Dubas. I like the way you think and I'd be happy with these moves.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 17, 2021, 11:00:26 AM
If the Leafs wanted to go after one of the bigger names in free agency this summer, here's a way for them to make that possible:

1) One of Kerfoot/Dermott gets selected in the expansion draft, the other gets dealt for some kind of futures return to clear cap/roster space

2) Foligno comes back on a 1-year, $2.5mil contract. This might seem a bit low but we're also talking about a guy who's scored at a 37-point pace over his last 4 seasons and isn't getting any younger. I think he could get $3-3.5mil from someone else but he does us a solid for being a jerk and getting injured after we gave up a 1st for him.

3) Galchenyuk, Bunting, and Hutton all sign 1-year deals at $950k to fill out the roster.

At this point in time we have $8.2mil in cap space with 12 forwards signed, 7 defencemen, and 1 goalie.

So that would give the Leafs room to either a) sign Hall to a $6mil AAV deal + have $2mil to sign/acquire a goalie or b) trade Holl to clear out $2mil and go after Hamilton on a $8mil AAV + have $2mil to sign/acquire a goalie.

I like this line of thinking on Hamilton.  Can we also trade Rielly to recoup assets and then use Rielly's contract to sign Alec Martinez?

Quote from: L K on June 17, 2021, 11:41:45 AM
I like this line of thinking on Hamilton.  Can we also trade Rielly to recoup assets and then use Rielly's contract to sign Alec Martinez?

I like Martinez but with $10mil+ already dedicated to two other 30+ year old defensive defencemen I'm not sure that'd be the best use of cap space.

I think upgrading from Holl to Hamilton does put the team in a better position to bump Sandin (or even Dermott) to the 4D spot though so trading Rielly for futures and using his cap space to boost the forwards (3C is definitely a bit of a problem in my scenarios) could still be on the table.

I'm not convinced Foligno wants to sign here.

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 17, 2021, 12:21:02 PM
I'm not convinced Foligno wants to sign here.

Nobody but Foligno knows. I'm sure Dubas has talked with him. I'd take him back on a mid 2 hit.

I don't care how it gets done.
But go get Tkachuck from Calgary
This is the big trade we need.

Quote from: berserker on June 23, 2021, 09:47:33 AM
I don't care how it gets done.
But go get Tkachuck from Calgary
This is the big trade we need.

Let's ignore the fact that I don't think it's really likely that Tkachuk wants out and let's think about that one for a second:
Who would have to get moved for Calgary to consider the trade? (Marner? Matthews? Nylander?)

Ok great. Now should Toronto still make the trade? I mean, if it is true that he wants out....Why? Is it the team's struggles this past season? Is it a fall out in the dressingroom? Is it a fall out with Sutter? I mean, you'd figure him and Sutter would be perfect for eachother.

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 23, 2021, 11:24:35 AM
Let's ignore the fact that I don't think it's really likely that Tkachuk wants out and let's think about that one for a second:
Who would have to get moved for Calgary to consider the trade? (Marner? Matthews? Nylander?)

One thing we should also keep in mind is that he's 2 years away from unrestricted free agency where there's a lot of speculation swirling that he's St. Louis bound. His 22/23 AAV will also likely be $9mil via his qualifying offer.

With that in mind, all three of those suggestions are pretty hard no's I think. It would have to be something like Tkachuk for Rielly+. Think both players provide fairy similar value to their teams on the ice. Tkachuk's a UFA in 2 years, Rielly's a UFA in 1 year. Rielly would replace an aging Giordano and Calgary could even work on maybe getting him extended in the process.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 23, 2021, 11:37:31 AM

With that in mind, all three of those suggestions are pretty hard no's I think. It would have to be something like Tkachuk for Rielly+. Think both players provide fairy similar value to their teams on the ice. Tkachuk's a UFA in 2 years, Rielly's a UFA in 1 year. Rielly would replace an aging Giordano and Calgary could even work on maybe getting him extended in the process.

And Calgary would be a hard pass on that I'd think.

My thought is Calgary is heading directly towards a rebuild. I'd assume Tkachuk would be a big part of that.

https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1407737799412006914

Quote4. Conor Garland
Right Wing, Arizona Coyotes
Age: 25
Contract: RFA (Arbitration Eligible)

Scoop: The Coyotes have not treated Garland like the player who was the heartbeat of their team. Garland's camp, led by agent Peter Cooney, submitted two contract proposals (as requested by the club) on May 20 and there has been zero communication or dialogue since. "We're just looking for Conor to be paid respectfully like the core player he was for the Coyotes," Cooney told Daily Faceoff on Tuesday. It appears that will be elsewhere, which is no real shock given that Arizona nearly moved Garland in the days prior to April's trade deadline.

Conor Garland was future-Toronto Maple Leafs great Michael Bunting's most common linemate in Arizona last season, and Friedman reported that the Leafs checked in on his availability at the deadline before getting Foligno.

Do you think we have the cash to pull in:
Bunting - Reinhart - Garland
Ullmark

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 23, 2021, 11:58:56 AM
My thought is Calgary is heading directly towards a rebuild. I'd assume Tkachuk would be a big part of that.

I think Calgary should go for a full-blown rebuild too but that would involve trading both Tkachuk and Gaudreau for as many picks/future assets as possible. Neither of them will likely re-sign there long-term, and they aren't winning a Cup in the next 2 years. Not sure a team that just signed a 30-year old goalie to a 6-year, $36mil contract has their eyes on a rebuild though.

After watching Mathews smile as the Montreal
Defense manhandled him ,it seemed like
I was the only one pissed off. We need an injection of attitude but that attitude has to be able to play the game . Tkachuck is the player
needed . I would do Marner for Tkachuck

Isn't Tkachuk the guy that lost his marbles when Muzzin flipped the puck gently to him at the end of a game?

Quote from: herman on June 23, 2021, 12:28:38 PM
Do you think we have the cash to pull in:
Bunting - Reinhart - Garland
Ullmark

I mean anything's possible but... no. In the event we got him I'd also put him in the top-6 and move Nylander to the left wing (Keefe talked about Willy wanting to play there but not having anyone to play on the right).

Quote from: herman on June 23, 2021, 12:28:38 PM
Do you think we have the cash to pull in:
Bunting - Reinhart - Garland
Ullmark

Depends who's going out and the cost. I think Reinhart would cost too much. I would try to get Granlund and those 2 guys.

I'm okay replacing Zach Hyman with a move for Warren Foegele.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/31-thoughts-blackhawks-must-publicly-address-sexual-assault-allegations/

Quote6. Another name I've heard [in potential trade talks]: Nashville's Viktor Arvidsson. Tough, hard-working player. Three years left at $4.25 million.

10. I think New Jersey would consider moving the fourth-overall selection for a good, young defenceman.

I would also not be opposed to replacing Hyman with Arvidsson.

Quote from: herman on June 28, 2021, 02:23:12 PM
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/31-thoughts-blackhawks-must-publicly-address-sexual-assault-allegations/

Quote6. Another name I've heard [in potential trade talks]: Nashville's Viktor Arvidsson. Tough, hard-working player. Three years left at $4.25 million.

10. I think New Jersey would consider moving the fourth-overall selection for a good, young defenceman.

I would also not be opposed to replacing Hyman with Arvidsson.

I'd rather have Granlund for less money then both of them.

https://theathletic.com/2681765/2021/06/30/lebrun-cale-makar-an-offer-sheet-target-seth-jones-trade-interest-from-avs-flyers-blackhawks/

QuoteLeBrun: I will freely admit that when the Maple Leafs' season ended, I thought Frederik Andersen was most definitely headed to the free-agent market.

It just felt to me like his time in Toronto had come to an end. The emergence of Jack Campbell plus perhaps some hurt feelings from Andersen as far as the perception of his value in the Leafs' market gave me the distinct impression he was gone.

And he may still be come July 28, of course.

But Claude Lemieux, the agent for the pending UFA netminder, told me Tuesday that Leafs management has reached out recently to ask if Andersen had interest in returning.

And the answer from Lemieux to the Leafs was yes.

Now, having mutual interest is one thing; converting that into a contract that satisfies both sides within the Leafs' salary cap situation, well, that's another thing.

But it is nevertheless revealing that the conversation happened and that Lemieux told the Leafs that Andersen is absolutely comfortable coming back and sharing the net with Campbell.

"Mutual interest" between the Leafs and Andersen for a new deal for Freddie.

Quote from: Arn on June 30, 2021, 10:02:09 AM
"Mutual interest" between the Leafs and Andersen for a new deal for Freddie.

"Hey if you aren't married in 20 years, and I'm not married either... wanna?"

I don't have a problem bringing him back but it really needs to be in the 2-3 million territory if he wants to do it but it has to be in that range.  That's the kind of contract that gives the flexibility for the Leafs to make improvements to the rest of the roster.

Another note...do you try and come up with an extension for Jack Campbell in the offseason to try and negotiate his salary down in case he has another good year this coming season or do you wait and not trust a partial season with a guy who has had some injury issues?  To me he is the 1A guy going into next season and you do need a 1B there with him but it would be a shame to be stuck in a situation where we have to have tough lineup decisions just to keep our goalie past next year if he has another good year.

Quote from: L K on June 30, 2021, 10:09:33 AM
I don't have a problem bringing him back but it really needs to be in the 2-3 million territory if he wants to do it but it has to be in that range.  That's the kind of contract that gives the flexibility for the Leafs to make improvements to the rest of the roster.

Another note...do you try and come up with an extension for Jack Campbell in the offseason to try and negotiate his salary down in case he has another good year this coming season or do you wait and not trust a partial season with a guy who has had some injury issues?  To me he is the 1A guy going into next season and you do need a 1B there with him but it would be a shame to be stuck in a situation where we have to have tough lineup decisions just to keep our goalie past next year if he has another good year.

The Leafs priority this off season isn't Hyman, it's getting a 1A goalie. Jack's not a 1A but I would look to extend him this off season. He's a good back up plan and he should be good for 30-35 games.
As for Freddie. Can you get a better goalie for 3.5 mill if you can get him for that? Leafs do have room to sign a good goalie but other moves will have to happen. I'd like to see the Leafs grab Ullmark, Raanta of Driedger(big roll of the dice).

Here's a maybe crazy idea that I don't think I would have really considered a couple of years ago: should we bring Bozak back?

He's scored at a 40-point pace over his 3 seasons as a Blue and continued his face-off success at 55%. That's not that surprising but what is is that he's become a pretty consistent member of their PK as well. In his 1st season there he averaged 1:16 on the PK, 2nd season 1:24, and in his 3rd 1:57. Lord knows we could use another centre on the penalty kill. His 5-on-5 defensive numbers also look better than they did as a Leaf.

He's not coming off his best season and he missed some time with an injury though. He's also a mind-boggling 35 years old now. Partially because of those things Evolving Hockey is only projecting a $1.3mil contract for him this offseason. That feels a bit low but even if it's something in that 2's that seems like a pretty fair deal for a 3C who can PP and PK and who already has connections with the team. Would be at least something I'd strongly consider, especially since it'd mean we could invest more money at the wing position.

Wanna lure McDavid over by signing his favourite player growing up?

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2021, 11:30:12 AM
Here's a maybe crazy idea that I don't think I would have really considered a couple of years ago: should we bring Bozak back?

He's scored at a 40-point pace over his 3 seasons as a Blue and continued his face-off success at 55%. That's not that surprising but what is is that he's become a pretty consistent member of their PK as well. In his 1st season there he averaged 1:16 on the PK, 2nd season 1:24, and in his 3rd 1:57. Lord knows we could use another centre on the penalty kill. His 5-on-5 defensive numbers also look better than they did as a Leaf.

He's not coming off his best season and he missed some time with an injury though. He's also a mind-boggling 35 years old now. Partially because of those things Evolving Hockey is only projecting a $1.3mil contract for him this offseason. That feels a bit low but even if it's something in that 2's that seems like a pretty fair deal for a 3C who can PP and PK and who already has connections with the team. Would be at least something I'd strongly consider, especially since it'd mean we could invest more money at the wing position.

I would consider it at that money for sure. Don't forget he's good on shootouts too.

If he's still got wheels, sure. I think one way or another you need to be a bit faster in the bottom six.

I thought we were re-signing Foligno to a super cheap deal because he feels bad for getting hurt?

Quote from: Frank E on July 02, 2021, 12:41:40 PM
I thought we were re-signing Foligno to a super cheap deal because he feels bad for getting hurt?

Well if you can get him at 2 and Bozak at 1.xx low Foligno can stay on the wing. Then they can get Bunting and trade for Garland. That would make me happy lol.

Quote from: Frank E on July 02, 2021, 12:41:40 PM
I thought we were re-signing Foligno to a super cheap deal because he feels bad for getting hurt?

Nylander-Matthews-Garland
Foligno-Tavares-Marner
Mikheyev-Bozak-Bunting
Galchenyuk-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Hutton

Campbell
Andersen/other $3.5mil goalie

Foligno @ $2.5mil, Bozak $2mil, Garland @ $4.5mil, Galchenyuk/Bunting/Hutton $900k

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2021, 01:18:59 PM

Quote from: Frank E on July 02, 2021, 12:41:40 PM
I thought we were re-signing Foligno to a super cheap deal because he feels bad for getting hurt?

Nylander-Matthews-Garland
Foligno-Tavares-Marner
Mikheyev-Bozak-Bunting
Galchenyuk-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Hutton

Campbell
Andersen/other $3.5mil goalie

Foligno @ $2.5mil, Bozak $2mil, Garland @ $4.5mil, Galchenyuk/Bunting/Hutton $900k

That would be great IMO. I want the Leafs to get Garland and Bunting. The more I think about it, Bozak would be an ideal 3rd line centre.

Without anymore UFA re-signings & assuming easy RFA re-signing, and literally doing nothing else: ~6M to spend

Robertson - Matthews - Marner
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander
Mikheyev - Engvall - Anderson
Simmonds - Brooks - Spezza
Semyonov

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Dermott - Sandin
Liljegren

Campbell
Hutchinson

Seattle will be taking one of Kerfoot, Holl (who must be exposed at this point, for experience requirement), or Dermott, which brings the spending to 6.9 to 9.5ish M

Before proceeding, I think we can acknowledge that this team is a) worse than this past season's b) could still hold its own (with injury luck) and make maybe 4th in the Atlantic and have a poop-ton of cap space to work with at the deadline.

Barring really good opportunities coming to light in the offseason, maybe the best route is to run an okay team to start the season with lots of flexibility (+ Bunting), really try out the tweeners and see who can really make some hay, experiment with your backup options (Nylander @ Center), and then start pushing in chips when other teams falter and make your heavier trades ahead of the deadline.

Or really have fun, trade Marner and whatever parts necessary to get Sam Rienhart + Filip Forsberg + Marner's NHL level trade return.

Oh hey, Josh Ho-Sang is UFA now... I'd Vesey/Galchenyuk that.

Quote from: herman on July 02, 2021, 01:52:03 PM
Oh hey, Josh Ho-Sang is UFA now... I'd Vesey/Galchenyuk that.

I mean I wouldn't be opposed to signing him but he'd definitely be playing in the AHL.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2021, 02:42:42 PM

Quote from: herman on July 02, 2021, 01:52:03 PM
Oh hey, Josh Ho-Sang is UFA now... I'd Vesey/Galchenyuk that.

I mean I wouldn't be opposed to signing him but he'd definitely be playing in the AHL.

I really don't understand his appeal after showing very little.

Quote from: Bender on July 02, 2021, 02:54:47 PM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2021, 02:42:42 PM

Quote from: herman on July 02, 2021, 01:52:03 PM
Oh hey, Josh Ho-Sang is UFA now... I'd Vesey/Galchenyuk that.

I mean I wouldn't be opposed to signing him but he'd definitely be playing in the AHL.

I really don't understand his appeal after showing very little.

Puck possession style winger with transition skills and above average passing and strong defensive numbers when asked? After being underutilized and held hostage to an inconsistent tire-fire standard? Available for basically free?

I mean I think the odds of him being a contributing NHLer at this point are very, very, very slim (that's partially on him, and partially because the Islanders did no favours to him and his development). But the Marlies could use some offensive talent with a number of their better players leaving, and if he ends up exceeding expectations then the team can take things from there.

This thread has gotten a bit nutsy rococo.

Bring back Bo-Zak?  Get Ho-Sang?  For real?


Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 02, 2021, 10:30:08 PM
This thread has gotten a bit nutsy rococo.

Bring back Bo-Zak?  Get Ho-Sang?  For real?

Just wait until I start talking about bringing Daniel Winnik back.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 05, 2021, 12:55:29 PM

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 02, 2021, 10:30:08 PM
This thread has gotten a bit nutsy rococo.

Bring back Bo-Zak?  Get Ho-Sang?  For real?

Just wait until I start talking about bringing Daniel Winnik back.

So we can deadline deal him for another 2nd rd pick for the 3rd time

The more I think about it, the more I hope that the Leafs try and sign Doug Hamilton to a contract in the 8 - 8.5 range.  Get him signed and then move Kerfoot, or hope he gets picked in the expansion draft, and use that money to flush out the other areas of the lineup like the last couple of forwards and the backup goalie.  Signing him to that contract would give them about 2 to 3 million left, and then getting rid of Kerfoot would add another 3 million.

Then you have the big 4 up front and the defence looks like:

Muzzin - Hamilton
Rielly - Brodie
Sandin - Holl

And I say that if you start running in to depth problems on the forward lines, you start to move the big 4 on to their own lines and see if the other team can shut them down.  I think all four of them are good enough to drive a line on their own.   

Also, could the Leafs just offer Rielly a $1.2 million raise in an extension and call it a day, as that is the money that comes off the books from Kessel's contract?

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 05, 2021, 02:08:03 PM
The more I think about it, the more I hope that the Leafs try and sign Doug Hamilton to a contract in the 8 - 8.5 range.  Get him signed and then move Kerfoot, or hope he gets picked in the expansion draft, and use that money to flush out the other areas of the lineup like the last couple of forwards and the backup goalie.  Signing him to that contract would give them about 2 to 3 million left, and then getting rid of Kerfoot would add another 3 million.

With Kerfoot gone and Hamilton signed at $8mil you'd have $6.3mil left to sign 3 forwards, a back-up or 1B goalie, plus possibly a 7th defenceman and/or 13th forward. Let's sign my 3 default depth players to $900k contracts (Galchenyuk, Bunting, Hutton) and promote Robertson and you've got about $2.8mil left to sign a back-up goalie (or $3.7mil if you don't have a 7D and run a barebones 20 man roster). So doable for sure but with all the money invested in the big 4 forwards and the top-4 defence the rest of the forward group is pretty weak.

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 05, 2021, 02:08:03 PM
Also, could the Leafs just offer Rielly a $1.2 million raise in an extension and call it a day, as that is the money that comes off the books from Kessel's contract?

You'd be left with the question of how to re-sign Campbell after his $1.65mil deal comes up at the same time, or how to replace him for that same amount. You could move Holl but replacing him with Liljegren only saves you a little over $1mil.

So everything would be doable but very, very tricky to pull off. Flat cap really sucks. We'd likely be hitting $90mil or close to it in 21/22 if it wasn't for everything going on.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 06, 2021, 10:05:03 AM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 05, 2021, 02:08:03 PM
The more I think about it, the more I hope that the Leafs try and sign Doug Hamilton to a contract in the 8 - 8.5 range.  Get him signed and then move Kerfoot, or hope he gets picked in the expansion draft, and use that money to flush out the other areas of the lineup like the last couple of forwards and the backup goalie.  Signing him to that contract would give them about 2 to 3 million left, and then getting rid of Kerfoot would add another 3 million.

With Kerfoot gone and Hamilton signed at $8mil you'd have $6.3mil left to sign 3 forwards, a back-up or 1B goalie, plus possibly a 7th defenceman and/or 13th forward. Let's sign my 3 default depth players to $900k contracts (Galchenyuk, Bunting, Hutton) and promote Robertson and you've got about $2.8mil left to sign a back-up goalie (or $3.7mil if you don't have a 7D and run a barebones 20 man roster). So doable for sure but with all the money invested in the big 4 forwards and the top-4 defence the rest of the forward group is pretty weak.

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 05, 2021, 02:08:03 PM
Also, could the Leafs just offer Rielly a $1.2 million raise in an extension and call it a day, as that is the money that comes off the books from Kessel's contract?

You'd be left with the question of how to re-sign Campbell after his $1.65mil deal comes up at the same time, or how to replace him for that same amount. You could move Holl but replacing him with Liljegren only saves you a little over $1mil.

So everything would be doable but very, very tricky to pull off. Flat cap really sucks. We'd likely be hitting $90mil or close to it in 21/22 if it wasn't for everything going on.

I don't think we see a breakup of the Big 4 in the offseason but I keep having this nagging thought that we might see a midseason blockbuster move.

LA, chafing at having missed on Eichel (Minnesota, why?), makes a hail mary pitch for Marner and Rielly that Dubas cannot say no to.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 06, 2021, 10:05:03 AM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 05, 2021, 02:08:03 PM
The more I think about it, the more I hope that the Leafs try and sign Doug Hamilton to a contract in the 8 - 8.5 range.  Get him signed and then move Kerfoot, or hope he gets picked in the expansion draft, and use that money to flush out the other areas of the lineup like the last couple of forwards and the backup goalie.  Signing him to that contract would give them about 2 to 3 million left, and then getting rid of Kerfoot would add another 3 million.

With Kerfoot gone and Hamilton signed at $8mil you'd have $6.3mil left to sign 3 forwards, a back-up or 1B goalie, plus possibly a 7th defenceman and/or 13th forward. Let's sign my 3 default depth players to $900k contracts (Galchenyuk, Bunting, Hutton) and promote Robertson and you've got about $2.8mil left to sign a back-up goalie (or $3.7mil if you don't have a 7D and run a barebones 20 man roster). So doable for sure but with all the money invested in the big 4 forwards and the top-4 defence the rest of the forward group is pretty weak.

Which is why I think the Leafs need to do a better job of leveraging the big four up front.  They can all drive a line, and if you have some talent sprinkled throughout the lineup that can play with the big four, you could roll 4 lines and be successful.   Matthews doesn't need to be playing with Marner.  He just needs someone to get him the puck and then go to the net.  If you look at the approach that Pittsburgh took when they won their first cup, they moved Crosby, Malkin and Kessel all on to separate lines and forced the other team to pick their poison.  They took a different approach the next year with Kessel and Malkin playing together, but if the Leafs had a top 4 D like I listed, that would be better than what the Penguins rolled with in either of those two years.

Like if you had something like:

Galchenyuk - Tavares - Simmonds
Bunting - Matthews - Spezza
Robertson - Engvall - Marner
Mikheyev - Hallander/Brooks - Nylander

I think that while none of those lines may light the league on fire, overall if you are rolling four lines, that's tough to keep up with.

Then on defense you have your Norris trophy candidate d-man in Hamilton.

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 01:23:14 PM
They can all drive a line

Just leaving aside the proposition of smeared out minutes for the big 4*, is this above statement really true? Because I've only seen it from 3 of the 4.

* there's point of diminishing returns in either direction -- overload vs extremely balanced -- and not every passenger on the line is going to be able to handle an increased load or diminished opportunity.

Quote from: herman on July 06, 2021, 01:31:00 PM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 01:23:14 PM
They can all drive a line

Just leaving aside the proposition of smeared out minutes for the big 4*, is this above statement really true? Because I've only seen it from 3 of the 4.

* there's point of diminishing returns in either direction -- overload vs extremely balanced -- and not every passenger on the line is going to be able to handle an increased load or diminished opportunity.

Which three?  If you are leaving out Marner, I thought he was the straw that stirred the drink on that Bozak/JVR line back in the day.  And if that is the case then spread them out over three lines, and mix and match based on who is going and who isn't.  Are you feeling sorry for the Nylander because he is on the supposed 4th line? Don't be, there is no fourth line. (That won't make sense if you are not familiar with Ikea commercials) 

I guess my point is that the Leafs are a very stagnate team when it comes to formations and line combinations, which I believe reduces their ability to adapt.  If their philosophy is that they are going to just overpower the other team with whatever they decide is their formation and line combinations, well then you had better hope you don't have a lot of weaknesses to exploit, because that other NHL team that you are playing against will look for them. 

I grew up in an era where, when Scotty Bowmen first started, he would switch up his lines every shift in the first period, and then by the third he had locked in on who he was playing.  Then when he made his way to Detroit, he was all about having one 5 man rotation, and then the rest of the lineup was a blender.  He adapted to what he had and what he thought would get him the win.

I don't think Keefe is a dumb coach.  It just seems they are locked in to doing things a very specific way event though they are running in to issues with the way they are doing things and that adaptability just isn't there.  There were questions about the PP all year.  There were questions as to how this team was handled in the playoffs.  My big thing is why wasn't Marner switched off that first line?  It's clear he wasn't the same player to everyone watching.  What would it have hurt to put him on a third line once JT went down and maybe move Spezza up?       

At the end of the day, the Leafs have 4 forwards who are really good to elite.  If you have that, then you should be able to utilize that as a strength to overpower the other team by exploiting where they are weak.  It doesn't work though if you put them all on the same line and the other team just shuts them down because their strength is putting out a super strong defensive unit that can remove a line from a game.   

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 01:23:14 PM
Which is why I think the Leafs need to do a better job of leveraging the big four up front.  They can all drive a line, and if you have some talent sprinkled throughout the lineup that can play with the big four, you could roll 4 lines and be successful.   Matthews doesn't need to be playing with Marner.  He just needs someone to get him the puck and then go to the net.  If you look at the approach that Pittsburgh took when they won their first cup, they moved Crosby, Malkin and Kessel all on to separate lines and forced the other team to pick their poison.  They took a different approach the next year with Kessel and Malkin playing together, but if the Leafs had a top 4 D like I listed, that would be better than what the Penguins rolled with in either of those two years.

Like if you had something like:

Galchenyuk - Tavares - Simmonds
Bunting - Matthews - Spezza
Robertson - Engvall - Marner
Mikheyev - Hallander/Brooks - Nylander

I think that while none of those lines may light the league on fire, overall if you are rolling four lines, that's tough to keep up with.

Then on defense you have your Norris trophy candidate d-man in Hamilton.

All that really accomplishes is diluting the offence. When Pittsburgh split their big 3 forwards, they also had guys like Rust, Guentzel, and Hornqvist for them to play with. With those proposed lines, you're basically nerfing Nylander and hoping the Robertson breaks out big enough to capitalize on Marner's playmaking. Basically, you're reducing the effectiveness of the top 2 lines while hoping to create offence from the bottom 2, but without providing the support those lines need to actually produce enough to justify the move.

Quote from: bustaheims on July 06, 2021, 02:03:30 PM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 01:23:14 PM
Which is why I think the Leafs need to do a better job of leveraging the big four up front.  They can all drive a line, and if you have some talent sprinkled throughout the lineup that can play with the big four, you could roll 4 lines and be successful.   Matthews doesn't need to be playing with Marner.  He just needs someone to get him the puck and then go to the net.  If you look at the approach that Pittsburgh took when they won their first cup, they moved Crosby, Malkin and Kessel all on to separate lines and forced the other team to pick their poison.  They took a different approach the next year with Kessel and Malkin playing together, but if the Leafs had a top 4 D like I listed, that would be better than what the Penguins rolled with in either of those two years.

Like if you had something like:

Galchenyuk - Tavares - Simmonds
Bunting - Matthews - Spezza
Robertson - Engvall - Marner
Mikheyev - Hallander/Brooks - Nylander

I think that while none of those lines may light the league on fire, overall if you are rolling four lines, that's tough to keep up with.

Then on defense you have your Norris trophy candidate d-man in Hamilton.

All that really accomplishes is diluting the offence. When Pittsburgh split their big 3 forwards, they also had guys like Rust, Guentzel, and Hornqvist for them to play with. With those proposed lines, you're basically nerfing Nylander and hoping the Robertson breaks out big enough to capitalize on Marner's playmaking. Basically, you're reducing the effectiveness of the top 2 lines while hoping to create offence from the bottom 2, but without providing the support those lines need to actually produce enough to justify the move.

The first year that the Penguins won the cup Kessel was playing with Bonino and Haglin.  Kessel had 59 points, Bonino had 29 (in 61 games) and Haglin had 27 (in 37 games with the Pens).  Rust had 11 in 41 games and Guentzel was not on that team.

The next year Rust had 28 points, Nick Bonino had 37 and Carl Haglin had 22, points in the regular season.  Kessel managed to get 70 points but he spent more time with Malkin that year.

It's not like you do it all the time, or you mix and match here and there based on what the other team is giving you, but you have to experiment with it in the regular season, so that the players are ready for it when it does happen.  When things aren't going, you change something to get them going.  Plus you still put them together on the powerplay.  The idea is to score one more goal than the other team, not necessarily five.   

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 01:50:32 PM
Which three?  If you are leaving out Marner, I thought he was the straw that stirred the drink on that Bozak/JVR line back in the day.  And if that is the case then spread them out over three lines, and mix and match based on who is going and who isn't.  Are you feeling sorry for the Nylander because he is on the supposed 4th line? Don't be, there is no fourth line. (That won't make sense if you are not familiar with Ikea commercials) 

I guess my point is that the Leafs are a very stagnate team when it comes to formations and line combinations, which I believe reduces their ability to adapt.  If their philosophy is that they are going to just overpower the other team with whatever they decide is their formation and line combinations, well then you had better hope you don't have a lot of weaknesses to exploit, because that other NHL team that you are playing against will look for them. 

I grew up in an era where, when Scotty Bowmen first started, he would switch up his lines every shift in the first period, and then by the third he had locked in on who he was playing.  Then when he made his way to Detroit, he was all about having one 5 man rotation, and then the rest of the lineup was a blender.  He adapted to what he had and what he thought would get him the win.

I don't think Keefe is a dumb coach.  It just seems they are locked in to doing things a very specific way event though they are running in to issues with the way they are doing things and that adaptability just isn't there.  There were questions about the PP all year.  There were questions as to how this team was handled in the playoffs.  My big thing is why wasn't Marner switched off that first line?  It's clear he wasn't the same player to everyone watching.  What would it have hurt to put him on a third line once JT went down and maybe move Spezza up?       

At the end of the day, the Leafs have 4 forwards who are really good to elite.  If you have that, then you should be able to utilize that as a strength to overpower the other team by exploiting where they are weak.  It doesn't work though if you put them all on the same line and the other team just shuts them down because their strength is putting out a super strong defensive unit that can remove a line from a game.   

Yeah, I was referring to Marner, who has almost always had to be propped up by a Top 2 pick on his line. Everyone else has played with lesser talent and elevated those lines.

When JvR/Bozak played with Brown instead of Marner, there was no perceptible dropoff in play driving.

I understood the IKEA reference :)

I'm in favour of blending and mixing and matching in game to suit the situation, and there was definitely some roster lock-in last season that is reminiscent of Babcock in a different direction.

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 02:16:59 PM
The first year that the Penguins won the cup Kessel was playing with Bonino and Haglin.  Kessel had 59 points, Bonino had 29 (in 61 games) and Haglin had 27 (in 37 games with the Pens).  Rust had 11 in 41 games and Guentzel was not on that team.

The next year Rust had 28 points, Nick Bonino had 37 and Carl Haglin had 22, points in the regular season.  Kessel managed to get 70 points but he spent more time with Malkin that year.

It's not like you do it all the time, or you mix and match here and there based on what the other team is giving you, but you have to experiment with it in the regular season, so that the players are ready for it when it does happen.  When things aren't going, you change something to get them going.  Plus you still put them together on the powerplay.  The idea is to score one more goal than the other team, not necessarily five.   

The point is those Pittsburgh teams had depth. They had other players who could counted on enough to contribute 15+ goals a year. Outside of the big 4, the Leafs don't have that. Outside of the big 4, Galchenyuk and Simmonds are the only guys in your proposed lineup who have scored 15+ goals in the last 4 years - and neither them have approached that number in the last 2 seasons. You're asking a lot from guys who haven't had recent success putting the puck in the net at the NHL level. The Leafs don't play top heavy because of a lack of creativity. They do so because they're lacking in depth. The cap space they have needs to be spent addressing that.

Imagine trading Marner away to eventually add 2 Nylander-level players/contracts, say Ehlers and Forsberg.

Quote from: bustaheims on July 06, 2021, 02:33:36 PM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 02:16:59 PM
The first year that the Penguins won the cup Kessel was playing with Bonino and Haglin.  Kessel had 59 points, Bonino had 29 (in 61 games) and Haglin had 27 (in 37 games with the Pens).  Rust had 11 in 41 games and Guentzel was not on that team.

The next year Rust had 28 points, Nick Bonino had 37 and Carl Haglin had 22, points in the regular season.  Kessel managed to get 70 points but he spent more time with Malkin that year.

It's not like you do it all the time, or you mix and match here and there based on what the other team is giving you, but you have to experiment with it in the regular season, so that the players are ready for it when it does happen.  When things aren't going, you change something to get them going.  Plus you still put them together on the powerplay.  The idea is to score one more goal than the other team, not necessarily five.   

The point is those Pittsburgh teams had depth. They had other players who could counted on enough to contribute 15+ goals a year. Outside of the big 4, the Leafs don't have that. Outside of the big 4, Galchenyuk and Simmonds are the only guys in your proposed lineup who have scored 15+ goals in the last 4 years - and neither them have approached that number in the last 2 seasons. You're asking a lot from guys who haven't had recent success putting the puck in the net at the NHL level. The Leafs don't play top heavy because of a lack of creativity. They do so because they're lacking in depth. The cap space they have needs to be spent addressing that.

I don't think they had as much depth as you think.  Outside of their big three, they had 5 guys in double digits for goals for that first team that won the cup:

Hornqvist - 22
Kunitz - 17
Cullen - 16
Letang - 16
Hagelin - 10 (in 37 games with the Pens)

So lets say Hornqvist is like Marner, as Marner is the 4th guy on the list if we go by Herman's rules.  Marner will get you 20 to 30 goals, and I think he can do that without playing with an elite center like Matthews or Tavares, but he's still the 4th guy, so if you want to play him with Tavares, Matthews or Nylander, you can.

One of those double digit scorers is a d-man, and hopefully, if you are getting Hamilton, he's the guy getting you 15 to 20 goals from the backend.

That leaves three guys that have to hit double digits in goals, so any three of Galchenyuk, Spezza, Simmonds, Brooks, Mikheyev, Engvall, Bunting or Robertson have to get in to that 10 to 15 range.  I think that is doable. 

I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

When it comes to effectiveness, the other way to look at it is how many goals do you think Marner contributes to Matthews total?  Does he go from a 65 goal scorer to a 40 goal scorer by losing Marner on his wing?  Can Marner make that up on another line to give you more balance?  Say Nylander and Marner were on a line with Spezza at center, can that line score at a regular pace against weaker competition than what Tavares and Matthews are seeing?  Would it be better to have a 40 goal Matthews with a ring, or a 65 goal Matthews with no playoff success? 

And don't forget, you now have Hamilton on defence, and if you are lacking depth up front, you could move someone like Holl for a forward, or maybe Rielly isn't signed and you move him.  I think ultimately, the Leafs need that Norris caliber defenceman on the backend, and I don't think they have it currently on their roster.

Quote from: herman on July 06, 2021, 02:48:57 PM
Imagine trading Marner away to eventually add 2 Nylander-level players/contracts, say Ehlers and Forsberg.

I think that is tough to swing though.  I don't know if you get enough in a Marner trade to pick up one of the other players.  I get your point, that it might be better if the contracts on the Leafs were more diversified up front, but it's not like the guys they are paying are underperforming all that much.  Marner is still a top ten point producer in the League.  When you trade those guys however, you don't seem to get the same value back.   

Quote from: herman on July 06, 2021, 02:48:57 PM
Imagine trading Marner away to eventually add 2 Nylander-level players/contracts, say Ehlers and Forsberg.

I definitely think that's a better route, I just don't see how we get there.

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 05:01:57 PM
I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

It's less that the need each other to be effective, but more that, when together, they provide the maximum value. Mostly, my concern is putting Marner on a line without proven finishers really nerfs his value. He's an excellent playmaker and a great 200 foot player, but he doesn't raise the level of his linemates in the same way. He helps goal scorers become even more productive, but he hasn't really shown the ability to turn guys into goal scorers. He needs to stay with either Matthew or Tavares to maximize value. I'd put the lines more like this:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Robertson - Tavares - Spezza
Galchenyuk - Hallander/Engvall - Nylander
Mikheyev - Brooks - Simmonds

A little more balance. 3 lines that can score, but one clear top line that should be able to dominate. Wingers from lines 2 and 3 can rotate around the 2 Cs, depending on how they perform.

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 05:01:57 PM
I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

Where the rest of the extreme balance plan sort of feels off is opportunity cost. Points come from talent but it's also dependent on the TOI curve (unless you are Jason Spezza). I think Keefe leaned into it a bit too hard this past season for Matthews/Marner; career high numbers in the regular season: woohoo! Out of gas in the playoffs: boooooourns. It was literally his only solution to any game issues: play Matthews/Marner more. In the middle of a compressed season where there was a pretty easy path to playoffs and to the 3rd round.

I like the three-headed attack approach, but we're probably short 2-3 wingers for that if Kerfoot (SEA) and Hyman (UFA) are gone.

Quote from: bustaheims on July 07, 2021, 08:14:27 AM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 05:01:57 PM
I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

It's less that the need each other to be effective, but more that, when together, they provide the maximum value. Mostly, my concern is putting Marner on a line without proven finishers really nerfs his value. He's an excellent playmaker and a great 200 foot player, but he doesn't raise the level of his linemates in the same way. He helps goal scorers become even more productive, but he hasn't really shown the ability to turn guys into goal scorers. He needs to stay with either Matthew or Tavares to maximize value. I'd put the lines more like this:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Robertson - Tavares - Spezza
Galchenyuk - Hallander/Engvall - Nylander
Mikheyev - Brooks - Simmonds

A little more balance. 3 lines that can score, but one clear top line that should be able to dominate. Wingers from lines 2 and 3 can rotate around the 2 Cs, depending on how they perform.

Yeah I like that, and then if you need a goal, you can shorten the bench and move guys up in the lineup to throw a different look at a team late in a game.  If Brooks can hack it, I like that fourth line too.  Plus, you still have a better configuration on defence than you did a year ago.

I think this also highlights how big of a loss Tavares was in that first game.  If they had him, and Nylander was going on the third line, I think they get that extra goal they needed.  The problem I have is that if he doesn't get hurt, then he is probably playing with Tavares, and if the Habs figure out a way to shut down the second line then the same result happens.

As I type these message, it's becoming clear to me that I just don't really like that the coaching staff doesn't adapt as much as I think they should to what the game is giving you.

https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1412087185042546689
We didn't need Tavares to win; we needed the coaching staff to not be galaxy braining the PP and dodging the Danault matchup just a little if they were going to keep Matthews/Marner together.

The preparation for in-series adjustments needs to be handled in the off-season and regular season reps. I know Keefe appears to try a lot of stuff (Vesey in auto top-6 role?!), but he did not give Matthews/Marner any time apart other than due to injury. He did not give Nylander any centre reps even though it's been needed for 3 playoffs straight.

I too want to see more of a bench accordion. Guys like Kerfoot and Hyman are critical support layer pieces, but it doesn't have to specifically be those two. Find more players of that template on the front end of their development and earning curves.

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 08:46:45 AM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 05:01:57 PM
I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

True, I was simplifying it a bit. In my mind, there are players like Crosby, McDavid, Sundin (see Jonas Hoglund) who can make the players on their line a little better, and there are players like Ovechkin or Bure  who are great, but are largely a one man wrecking crew.  Maybe others feel different about particular players, but it comes down to skillset and the way that they play.    I think that Matthews and Tavares are in that first camp of having the ability to make a line mate better just by being on the line with them.   

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 09:09:17 AM
https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1412087185042546689
We didn't need Tavares to win; we needed the coaching staff to not be galaxy braining the PP and dodging the Danault matchup just a little if they were going to keep Matthews/Marner together.

The preparation for in-series adjustments needs to be handled in the off-season and regular season reps. I know Keefe appears to try a lot of stuff (Vesey in auto top-6 role?!), but he did not give Matthews/Marner any time apart other than due to injury. He did not give Nylander any centre reps even though it's been needed for 3 playoffs straight.

I too want to see more of a bench accordion. Guys like Kerfoot and Hyman are critical support layer pieces, but it doesn't have to specifically be those two. Find more players of that template on the front end of their development and earning curves.

I'm on the same page as you as to where I think they went down the wrong path this year.  I agree on Kerfoot and Hyman, and that's where the risk factor comes in.  You have to hope that there are some pieces in the organization that can give you some of that back over the next couple of years.  They may not be as effective as those two yet, but that they can come in and have a positive impact, so that the loss of those two isn't as great, and if the team has added in other places then the team actually comes out ahead.  If they give themselves a little bit of room, then maybe they can adjust mid season, but they can't give up anymore picks as the next two years are pretty slim on that front.   

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 07, 2021, 10:16:29 AM

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 08:46:45 AM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 05:01:57 PM
I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

True, I was simplifying it a bit. In my mind, there are players like Crosby, McDavid, Sundin (see Jonas Hoglund) who can make the players on their line a little better, and there are players like Ovechkin or Bure  who are great, but are largely a one man wrecking crew.  Maybe others feel different about particular players, but it comes down to skillset and the way that they play.    I think that Matthews and Tavares are in that first camp of having the ability to make a line mate better just by being on the line with them.

And I put Nylander in that list too, but obviously to a lesser degree. Anyone that can make Alex Wennberg and Jimmy Vesey look serviceable has that ability.

Marner hasn't really shown it yet, but I think he can get there. It doesn't have to be by creating an NHL-elite shot; simply diversifying his game (i.e. pass to people other than Matthews) and learning to hold the puck better will make him far more dangerous, and maybe he can carry and elevate a net crasher/chaos line. If he is stapled to Matthews, the defending team need only double-team Matthews all game, and that's 22M taken off the board.

Could Matthews drag two meh players to moderate success? Probably. Do I want to see him do that instead of scoring 50 goals/110 points with another 1st liner with him? No chance. I wouldn't mind doing something like:

x-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-x
Galchenyuk-x-Nylander

1st line keeps the two stars together, 2nd line can be more of a defensive unit, Nylander drives a sheltered scoring line and jumps into the top-6 whenever possible. I think I would still prefer to spend money on a winger as opposed to spending almost $24mil on 4 defencemen but if we did go that route that's the type of line set-up I'd go with.

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 10:35:34 AM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 07, 2021, 10:16:29 AM

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 08:46:45 AM

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2021, 05:01:57 PM
I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

True, I was simplifying it a bit. In my mind, there are players like Crosby, McDavid, Sundin (see Jonas Hoglund) who can make the players on their line a little better, and there are players like Ovechkin or Bure  who are great, but are largely a one man wrecking crew.  Maybe others feel different about particular players, but it comes down to skillset and the way that they play.    I think that Matthews and Tavares are in that first camp of having the ability to make a line mate better just by being on the line with them.

And I put Nylander in that list too, but obviously to a lesser degree. Anyone that can make Alex Wennberg and Jimmy Vesey look serviceable has that ability.

Marner hasn't really shown it yet, but I think he can get there. It doesn't have to be by creating an NHL-elite shot; simply diversifying his game (i.e. pass to people other than Matthews) and learning to hold the puck better will make him far more dangerous, and maybe he can carry and elevate a net crasher/chaos line. If he is stapled to Matthews, the defending team need only double-team Matthews all game, and that's 22M taken off the board.

I think Marner needs to develop a Gilmour like approach to the game.  He doesn't necessarily have to go to Gilmour's level, but he needs to get a bit of an edge to him if he wants to be effective in the playoffs.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 07, 2021, 10:48:11 AM
Could Matthews drag two meh players to moderate success? Probably. Do I want to see him do that instead of scoring 50 goals/110 points with another 1st liner with him? No chance. I wouldn't mind doing something like:

x-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-x
Galchenyuk-x-Nylander

1st line keeps the two stars together, 2nd line can be more of a defensive unit, Nylander drives a sheltered scoring line and jumps into the top-6 whenever possible. I think I would still prefer to spend money on a winger as opposed to spending almost $24mil on 4 defencemen but if we did go that route that's the type of line set-up I'd go with.

So the alternative is to swap Rielly for Hamilton, and I think that would be okay as well.  I think having that top end d-man on the backend is a missing element on this team.  If you do the comparison between the Leafs and Tampa, that's the one area where they are just flat out better than the Leafs.  They have Hedman.  Goaltending is a question mark for the Leafs as well, but Campbell has shown he can play really well, so maybe that isn't as big of a drop off there.  The Leafs just don't have a defenceman that is at the same level as Hedman.

I agree with the sentiment that you shouldn't build your team through free agency as a general rule.  However, I am not sure how else the Leafs are supposed to get a top end defenceman.  Also, with the flat cap, that may have the effect of lowering some of the free agent salaries, because the top teams won't have as much to spend, and I think the top free agents want to go to teams that are in a position to win.   

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2021/7/3/22562153/expansion-draft-musing-can-the-leafs-extract-useful-players-from

A good fanpost look at a projected expansion plan

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 09:09:17 AM
The preparation for in-series adjustments needs to be handled in the off-season and regular season reps. I know Keefe appears to try a lot of stuff (Vesey in auto top-6 role?!), but he did not give Matthews/Marner any time apart other than due to injury. He did not give Nylander any centre reps even though it's been needed for 3 playoffs straight.

Yup. It is high time that Nylander gets his own sheltered scoring line. Put Marner with Tavares, as Matthews will elevate whatever he's playing with (and Tavares... at this point, less so, probably), and see how it goes. They don't really have any other options in a flat-cap world. 

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 07, 2021, 11:19:20 AM
I agree with the sentiment that you shouldn't build your team through free agency as a general rule.  However, I am not sure how else the Leafs are supposed to get a top end defenceman.  Also, with the flat cap, that may have the effect of lowering some of the free agent salaries, because the top teams won't have as much to spend, and I think the top free agents want to go to teams that are in a position to win.   

Interesting is the fact that Hedman is the only D man currently playing on Tampa that was drafted by them. The rest were trades or signings.

https://twitter.com/mitchlbrown/status/1412892200380162050
Hmm... a 2015 Zach Hyman type but with playmaking abilities?!

LW, shoots right, not signing with FLA, getter of pucks... pls Eric Joyce, Wes Clarke, make the pitch before the Computer Boys do

https://twitter.com/thats_offside/status/1412909012253769729
https://twitter.com/thats_offside/status/1412912250344534018

https://twitter.com/moe_jaber/status/1412900665270042624
By all means, Mr. Holland, please send us a 4th for exclusive negotiation rights.

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 07:42:05 PM
https://twitter.com/moe_jaber/status/1412900665270042624
By all means, Mr. Holland, please send us a 4th for exclusive negotiation rights.

Yup we'll take it.

https://twitter.com/jprutherford/status/1412945304303845377
Well well well

Athletic is also reporting a rumor that the King's want Rielly and the return would be a package around Kempe.

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 07, 2021, 08:57:47 PM
Athletic is also reporting a rumor that the King's want Rielly and the return would be a package around Kempe.

Ah my OP is gradually coming to fruition.

It also reads more like speculation to workshop a trade fit rather than something a source intimated.

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2021, 08:41:51 PM
https://twitter.com/jprutherford/status/1412945304303845377
Well well well

Hard pass..

https://twitter.com/berezin_goal/status/1413472755891146752
https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1413570124540428292

Quote from: herman on July 09, 2021, 10:54:16 AM
https://twitter.com/berezin_goal/status/1413472755891146752

Essentially back to back 20G/50P seasons playing for a bad Detroit team.  I'm sure his production would go up playing with Matthews/Tavares and Nylander/Marner but the Leafs really don't have the assets to be trading for guys at this point.

Quote from: L K on July 09, 2021, 12:01:39 PM

Quote from: herman on July 09, 2021, 10:54:16 AM
https://twitter.com/berezin_goal/status/1413472755891146752

Essentially back to back 20G/50P seasons playing for a bad Detroit team.  I'm sure his production would go up playing with Matthews/Tavares and Nylander/Marner but the Leafs really don't have the assets to be trading for guys at this point.

Yeah they really don't have the pieces to make it happen, but he is the perfect fit. As another sudbury guy. But in all seriousness, i see him as a Hyman with more a 'F' you attitude

https://twitter.com/jmarshfof/status/1418317504192122882
Would you, for 1.2M

Quote from: herman on July 22, 2021, 06:23:41 PM
https://twitter.com/jmarshfof/status/1418317504192122882
Would you, for 1.2M

How dare you.

Quote from: herman on July 22, 2021, 06:23:41 PM
https://twitter.com/jmarshfof/status/1418317504192122882
Would you, for 1.2M

I mean as a sheltered 3rd pairing guy I think he's adequate but as much as we are bargain basement diving to finalize the roster I'd rather not revisit that

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-ice-breakers-rangers-the-team-to-watch-as-nhl-trade-freeze-lifts/

Lots of fun stuff in here.

QuoteThe Rangers have attempted to move arbitration-eligible RFA Pavel Buchnevich for weeks now.

Jack Han also pointed to Julien Gauthier as a potential Hyman replacement to look into

I was reading that there were rumblings of Stamkos being moved out of Tampa.

Not saying that it would ever happen, but how would people feel if he was move for Marner or Nylander?  Sideways move, or does it make the team better?  Does having three centers of that calibre lead to success for the Leafs, or do they still end up with depth problems?

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 26, 2021, 12:05:17 PM
I was reading that there were rumblings of Stamkos being moved out of Tampa.

Not saying that it would ever happen, but how would people feel if he was move for Marner or Nylander?  Sideways move, or does it make the team better?  Does having three centers of that calibre lead to success for the Leafs, or do they still end up with depth problems?

I think that closes the contention window to one year. Marner/Nylander still have growth paths in an upward trajectory. His injury history has rendered Stamkos no longer an option at centre (and really, Tavares might be on that same path in 2-3 years).

RYAN DONATO, MATTIAS JANMARK, MARK PYSYK, ERIK GUDBRANSON, ROBERT BORTUZZO, CÉDRIC PAQUETTE, RYAN MURRAY, BRENDAN SMITH, CODY CECI, DEREK STEPAN might be the type of players TO is really interested in. The press like to link TO to everyone that's sexy, personally I can hardly wait till TO signs Landeskog and Hamilton because it must be precap days like the press thinks it is.

None of the players I've mentioned are high profile and most are on the decline but I think they all would provide greater value than Ho-Sang and Galchenyk, Galy's ill advised pass that cost TO the game is the type of game/brain fart I'd expect from either of those 2.

Actually I don't expect TO to do anything tomorrow, mostly TO will probably look for value after the first day of FA.

Pysyk might be a decent depth signing that would come cheap.

This is an old-ish note about Rielly and the Leafs
https://theathletic.com/2669207/2021/06/23/lebrun-which-defencemen-could-change-addresses-or-stay-put-this-upcoming-offseason/

QuoteThe Leafs and Rielly's camp, led by Barry, had a nice season-exit chat, I hear, but the real conversation is going to wait. My sense is while the Leafs absolutely want to try and extend Rielly this offseason — he's got one year left on his deal — that negotiation is going to wait until August after the July fireworks are done. Which will give Leafs management a better idea after they've made other moves, and seen the NHL landscape, to know what they can do with Rielly.

But it's always going to come down to one thing: Yes, Rielly loves being a Maple Leaf and would take a bit less to remain one. But the dollar figures have to make sense. He's earning $5 million a year. He's worth at least the $6.5 million AAV Torey Krug got in St. Louis last fall, if not more, depending on term.

Kyle Dubas seemed much more at ease discussing Zach Hyman and Frederik Andersen play out their deals before free agency when I asked him about it on a season-ending media call. It was clear, however, Dubas wasn't that comfortable doing that this time with Rielly. Either he's signed this summer, or there's probably a trade. Personally, I think the Leafs find a way to extend Rielly.

Y'all saw the defense FA market last week. It just got extremely stupid.

The Krug comparison makes sense. Not sure where they'll find another $1.5M, unless they replace Kerfoot with Robertson or something like that.

Quote from: Bullfrog on August 03, 2021, 02:37:36 PM
The Krug comparison makes sense. Not sure where they'll find another $1.5M, unless they replace Kerfoot with Robertson or something like that.

Kerfoot's a goner next summer I think. That's partially why I'm really hoping he gets glued to one of the top lines. Try to pump up his value as much as possible and he could be an appealing asset with 1-year left on his contract and only a $750,000 salary (assuming he gets dealt after the Leafs pay his $1.95mil signing bonus).

Unless the cap keeps going up we are just going to keep shedding players.

Next season it's Rielly, Sandin and Campbell  (and Mikheyev/Spezza) who need new contracts.  As it stands right now that's a 9F, 4D, 1G roster with 13.7M in cap space left.

Campbell - 2.5M, Rielly 6.5, Sandin 2M = 11.0 - leaving 2.7 million for 3 forwards.   And that's a barebones roster.

Then the following year its Holl and Dermott.

The year after that is Nylander/Matthews.

I wonder how much Rielly's offence slightly drying up is going to affect his contract. Krug at $6.5mil seems like a reasonable comparison but he was coming off 3 straight seasons where he was pretty much consistently at the 65-point pace level. He was 6th among defencemen in points in that 3 season stretch and 5th in points per game. He was one of the top offensive defencemen in the game.

Rielly followed up his massive 18/19 season with a 47-point pace season and then a 52-point pace season. He's 9th in points and points per game over the last 3 years but that's largely based off that 18/19 season. Over the past 2 seasons he's tied for 27th in points and tied for 19th in points per game. And considering the team seem to be moving towards having Sandin run the top PP unit I wouldn't be that surprised if he fell below the 50-point mark again this upcoming season.

So I don't doubt that Rielly will be looking for big bucks on his next contract but his offensive numbers are dropping to the point where he's not among the highest scoring defencemen anymore, he plays big 5-on-5 minutes but hasn't been handling the toughest defensive assignments for a little while now, he might dropped to the second powerplay unit, and he only PKs when another defenceman is in the penalty box. I love Rielly and all but looking at this logically unless he has an absolutely monster 21/22 season I'm not even really sure how you justify giving him more than what Muzzin got on his extension.

Quote from: L K on August 03, 2021, 03:10:21 PM
Unless the cap keeps going up we are just going to keep shedding players.

Next season it's Rielly, Sandin and Campbell  (and Mikheyev/Spezza) who need new contracts.  As it stands right now that's a 9F, 4D, 1G roster with 13.7M in cap space left.

Campbell - 2.5M, Rielly 6.5, Sandin 2M = 11.0 - leaving 2.7 million for 3 forwards.   And that's a barebones roster.

Then the following year its Holl and Dermott.

The year after that is Nylander/Matthews.

Imagine what the team could look like with the extra $10mil they'd probably have in cap space if it wasn't for the pandemic.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on August 03, 2021, 03:31:21 PM

Quote from: L K on August 03, 2021, 03:10:21 PM
Unless the cap keeps going up we are just going to keep shedding players.

Next season it's Rielly, Sandin and Campbell  (and Mikheyev/Spezza) who need new contracts.  As it stands right now that's a 9F, 4D, 1G roster with 13.7M in cap space left.

Campbell - 2.5M, Rielly 6.5, Sandin 2M = 11.0 - leaving 2.7 million for 3 forwards.   And that's a barebones roster.

Then the following year its Holl and Dermott.

The year after that is Nylander/Matthews.

Imagine what the team could look like with the extra $10mil they'd probably have in cap space if it wasn't for the pandemic.

Imagine what my bank account would look like with no pandemic and Hurricanes of 17.  I could retire. Now I will work until my shoe fall off.  Ok I am crying, but know many people far worse off.  Lost everything.

https://www.tsn.ca/buffalo-sabres-jack-eichel-trade-1.1702889

Can we trade Tavares for Eichel?  ;D

I think I prefer the guy without major neck issues.

Quote from: Bullfrog on October 06, 2021, 09:31:45 AM
I think I prefer the guy without major neck issues.

Right now, for sure. Eichel is going to miss a big chunk of the upcoming season. Trading our 2nd line C for an injured player who could very well miss the entire season (at the very least, he's not likely to suit up until some time in January) is not something a contending team can do. If the Leafs were to consider that kind of move, it would have had to have been made right at the beginning of the offseason.

Plus, Tavares is still putting up 0.9+ ppg and I don't see him dropping off a cliff over the next 3 years.

That said, Eichel is $1M cap savings and has put up elite numbers on a very crappy team.

Quote from: Bullfrog on October 06, 2021, 12:17:13 PM
Plus, Tavares is still putting up 0.9+ ppg and I don't see him dropping off a cliff over the next 3 years.

That said, Eichel is $1M cap savings and has put up elite numbers on a very crappy team.

I'd take a healthy Eichel over Tavares every day of the week. Unfortunately, a healthy Eichel isn't available, and, if he was, there's no way Buffalo trades him to Toronto without a huge overpayment.

Even if you could get around things like a NMC that would never be waived to join Buffalo's clown parade, the optics of dealing the Captain who took less to sign with his hometown team and the resulting effect on his teammates might be bad enough to offset the difference between them as players.

It ain't going to happen, Johnny T has a NMC and wants to retire in Toronto. 

Also they want/need Tavares' intangibles: the stoic professionalism, setting the tone on work rate/effort/development, the corporate-friendly hometown face of the brand. There is no other player out there with that whole package wrapped in elite talent. Sure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner, but his talent level also helps anchor the young superstars to a particular team culture the way those previous veteran presence dudes could not.

He's Crosby-lite: 4th line grinder style with elite skills that just stacks a lot of little non-flashy good plays that overflows into production on paper. Nylander does a lot of the work to insulate Tavares' shortcomings: speed, NZ transition, presenting a dual shooting/passing option to leverage his strengths, so I'm not super worried about Tavares' transition into older player. Speed was never his calling card and the legs go first with age. The mind, the hands, the butt will find a way.

Quote from: herman on October 06, 2021, 01:41:14 PMSure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner

I really don't think that was an issue. After McDavid's deal, Matthews was not going to end up getting that much less regardless of Tavares and I think Marner's deal was fairly unconnected too.

The issue is just that, as good as Tavares is, he's still an inefficient use of cap dollars the way most FA's are.

Quote from: Nik on October 06, 2021, 02:24:02 PM

Quote from: herman on October 06, 2021, 01:41:14 PMSure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner

I really don't think that was an issue. After McDavid's deal, Matthews was not going to end up getting that much less regardless of Tavares and I think Marner's deal was fairly unconnected too.

The issue is just that, as good as Tavares is, he's still an inefficient use of cap dollars the way most FA's are.

Oh yeah, McDavid (and to a lesser degree Draisaitl), that was still technically less than what he could have commanded.

I'm pretty okay with being a bit inefficient at the upper end of the performance ladder of the roster, especially with needle movers. Since the big 4 have been paid in full (2 Covid shortened seasons), they represent on average 49.69% of the cap hit, and 51.39% of the goals scored by the team.

Quote from: herman on October 06, 2021, 02:48:30 PM
Oh yeah, McDavid (and to a lesser degree Draisaitl), that was still technically less than what he could have commanded.

I'm pretty okay with being a bit inefficient at the upper end of the performance ladder of the roster, especially with needle movers. Since the big 4 have been paid in full (2 Covid shortened seasons), they represent on average 49.69% of the cap hit, and 51.39% of the goals scored by the team.

I think having some inefficient deals on the books is manageable so long as you've got the counterweight of guys on low end deals outperforming their contracts to a significant extent and/or a cap that rises to the point that you can work around it. Absent that, you're going to feel a pretty solid pinch as we can see the Leafs already are.

		2019-2020			2020-2021
	Cap%	deltaG%	deltaP%	Cap%	deltaG%	deltaP%
Tavares	13.50%	-2.53%	-4.00%	13.50%	-3.28%	-3.92%
Matthews	14.27%	5.56%	-1.62%	14.28%	7.76%	-1.64%
Marner	13.37%	-6.61%	-2.76%	13.38%	-2.63%	-0.54%
Nylander	8.54%	4.54%	0.79%	8.54%	0.60%	-0.50%

Here's the breakdown of production proportion to the team vs cap hit % by differential.

How to read this: in 2020-2021, Matthews scored 41 goals, which was 22.04% of the team's total regular season goals, giving him an excess of 7.76% in goals proportion differential (deltaG%) vs his cap hit proportion.

Net positives for Matthews and Nylander in goals proportion (Spezza would be hilarious by this measure). I've included points, but it's pretty nebulous with the secondary assist factor. Didn't factor in time on ice efficiency (Spezza would be extremely hilarious by this measure).

As a group, the average deltaG% over these two years was 51.39% (G%) - 49.69% (Cap%) = 1.7%; Matthews' goal scoring (hampered by the wrist injury) and to a lesser extent Nylander's, is carrying the value efficiency load by this measure.

Quote from: bustaheims on October 06, 2021, 12:33:20 PM

Quote from: Bullfrog on October 06, 2021, 12:17:13 PM
Plus, Tavares is still putting up 0.9+ ppg and I don't see him dropping off a cliff over the next 3 years.

That said, Eichel is $1M cap savings and has put up elite numbers on a very crappy team.

I'd take a healthy Eichel over Tavares every day of the week. Unfortunately, a healthy Eichel isn't available, and, if he was, there's no way Buffalo trades him to Toronto without a huge overpayment.

Oh, to be clear, so would I. But as you mention, that isn't available.

Gotta strike while Benning is still in office
To VAN: Kerfoot, Holl, 2nd
To TOR: Elias Pettersson (50% retained)

I'll throw in Ritchie too.

Quote from: herman on November 19, 2021, 07:07:18 PM
Gotta strike while Benning is still in office
To VAN: Kerfoot, Holl, 2nd
To TOR: Elias Pettersson (50% retained)

I'll throw in Ritchie too.

He may need a change. Ferraro says he's flat out not engaged at all.

Quote from: herman on November 19, 2021, 07:07:18 PM
Gotta strike while Benning is still in office
To VAN: Kerfoot, Holl, 2nd
To TOR: Elias Pettersson (50% retained)

I'll throw in Ritchie too.

Vancouver is getting 2 players but we are only getting one. I think *they* should be throwing in the pick.

You're absolutely right. When's their next 1st rounder, 2030?

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1466423376692625419

This tweet made me chuckle a little:

https://twitter.com/DailyFaceoff/status/1465702026130513920

Quote from: herman on December 02, 2021, 10:15:41 AM
https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1466423376692625419

"the Leafs have had interest in both Holl and Travis Dermott, but Holl is older and earns more – in a role that's not commensurate with his pay."

I feel like this is a weird way to frame the problem with Holl right now. It's definitely fair to say his performance hasn't quite met expectations so far this season but his "role" on the team still right now is that of a top-4, 20 minute defenceman who gets tough usage/deployment and plays on the top PK pairing.

If his "role" isn't commensurate with his pay then what does that mean for Dermott who makes $0.5mil less but plays sheltered bottom pairing minutes and isn't allowed on any specialty teams unless absolutely necessary?

Quote from: herman on December 02, 2021, 10:15:41 AM
https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1466423376692625419

I move Holl before Dermott as well.

Mirtle, in that same Twitter thread, indicated that Holl is the more attractive piece on the market.

So which useless 4th line player will the leafs be blowing a draft pick on this year?

Quote from: Joe S. on December 07, 2021, 10:24:23 AM
So which useless 4th line player will the leafs be blowing a draft pick on this year?

Don't see a forward coming.. D man, yup

Quote from: Joe S. on December 07, 2021, 10:24:23 AM
So which useless 4th line player will the leafs be blowing a draft pick on this year?

Unless they move a contract out, the team will likely only be able to fit guys on contracts at/near the league minimum or with serious (likely double) retention.

I suspect we won't see much more than some depth/injury insurance type additions. Can't see the team going in for any of the bigger names - especially with cap considerations brought into play - and there's not a ton of super interesting mid-tier guys out there. So, I guess, whichever Coyote forward seems to appeal to Dubas (as the majority of their roster are pending free agents).

So you're saying kessel is coming back?

I'm not entirely sure if the Leafs organization is itching to move on from Holl like the fan base might be but if they are Vancouver could be an interesting trade partner. 1) Rutherford loves to make trades, 2) Rutherford has a history of acquiring shutdown RHD who may or may not be great in that role, and 3) Luke Schenn is currently on their top pairing to the right of Quinn Hughes.

So you're saying Holl for Schenn straight up then.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

OEL has 5 points in 26 games, and another 5 years at $7.26m cap hit...and that's the discounted cap hit from the $8.25m AAV his contract pays.  There are no significant $ contracts expiring this season's end.

I don't know how they fix this quick...I have to think that Rutherford has a 5 year plan...and that's if they can draft high in the first round for a while.

They have kids huffing glue live on Twitter these days.

https://twitter.com/UpdateLeafs/status/1470163080059535363?t=_oAR_Ts90k8QGxV3yl8mzQ&s=19

I think we (and the other team) are at a good spot now to manifest this:
Toronto lands John Klingberg in blockbuster trade a month ahead of the deadline
Nick Robertson joins his brother as Dallas retools for their future

With his team within striking distance of the President's Trophy, Kyle Dubas doubled down on his belief in his core late last night with a blockbuster deal to acquire top defenseman and pending UFA John Klingberg from the Dallas Stars for up and coming sniper Nick Robertson, Justin Holl, Brennan Menell, and a 2023 top-10 protected 1st Rd pick. Toronto also acquires Dallas' 3rd rd pick in 2022, and Toronto-native Wyatt Johnson in the transaction. No salary is retained on this deal as Dubas had previously cleared the space, sending Nick Ritchie back to Anaheim for a 5th rd pick.

Quote from: herman on December 15, 2021, 10:30:15 AM
I think we (and the other team) are at a good spot now to manifest this:
Toronto lands John Klingberg in blockbuster trade a month ahead of the deadline
Nick Robertson joins his brother as Dallas retools for their future

With his team within striking distance of the President's Trophy, Kyle Dubas doubled down on his belief in his core late last night with a blockbuster deal to acquire top defenseman and pending UFA John Klingberg from the Dallas Stars for up and coming sniper Nick Robertson, Justin Holl, Brennan Menell, and a 2023 top-10 protected 1st Rd pick. Toronto also acquires Dallas' 3rd rd pick in 2022, and Toronto-native Wyatt Johnson in the transaction. No salary is retained on this deal as Dubas had previously cleared the space, sending Nick Ritchie back to Anaheim for a 5th rd pick.

Haha Wyatt Johnson is a guy that's 26 years old playing in University. Wyatt Johnston plays for Windsor.

If we're going to give up that kind of value, I'd rather target someone like Chychrun who will at least be here for a couple years.

Quote from: Guilt Trip on December 15, 2021, 10:50:51 AM

Quote from: herman on December 15, 2021, 10:30:15 AM
I think we (and the other team) are at a good spot now to manifest this:
Toronto lands John Klingberg in blockbuster trade a month ahead of the deadline
Nick Robertson joins his brother as Dallas retools for their future

With his team within striking distance of the President's Trophy, Kyle Dubas doubled down on his belief in his core late last night with a blockbuster deal to acquire top defenseman and pending UFA John Klingberg from the Dallas Stars for up and coming sniper Nick Robertson, Justin Holl, Brennan Menell, and a 2023 top-10 protected 1st Rd pick. Toronto also acquires Dallas' 3rd rd pick in 2022, and Toronto-native Wyatt Johnson in the transaction. No salary is retained on this deal as Dubas had previously cleared the space, sending Nick Ritchie back to Anaheim for a 5th rd pick.

Haha Wyatt Johnson is a guy that's 26 years old playing in University. Wyatt Johnston plays for Windsor.

Wanna be my editor? Bullfrog is slacking

Dallas including one of their top prospects in Wyatt Johnston kinda throws off the value here. I really don't see why they'd do that.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2021, 11:18:47 AM
Dallas including one of their top prospects in Wyatt Johnston kinda throws off the value here. I really don't see why they'd do that.

Honestly, I just wanted another Wyatt in the system and did not know he was a top prospect lol literally just looked at his lastest junior numbers and they seemed goodish

Quote from: bustaheims on December 15, 2021, 10:59:46 AM
If we're going to give up that kind of value, I'd rather target someone like Chychrun who will at least be here for a couple years.

I think the price will be a bit crazy, but I would like Chychrun to replace Muzzin at some point.

Quote from: herman on December 15, 2021, 11:20:15 AM

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2021, 11:18:47 AM
Dallas including one of their top prospects in Wyatt Johnston kinda throws off the value here. I really don't see why they'd do that.

Honestly, I just wanted another Wyatt in the system and did not know he was a top prospect lol literally just looked at his lastest junior numbers and they seemed goodish

Fair enough, he definitely sounded like more of a throw-in from your description hah. Won't pretend to know everything about him but quick glance shows he was a 1st rounder in last years draft who's currently 6th in OHL scoring so yeah probably not going anywhere right now.

Also just generally I don't see Dallas trading Klingberg (they have oodles of cap space so they'll re-sign him eventually) and I don't see Toronto being that interested in him. If closer to the deadline Holl is still playing like he is now then I could see them being in the market for a guy to play alongside Muzzin in tough minutes and on the PK and those aren't Klingberg's strengths.

The UFA market for defencemen like that isn't really great. Ben Chiarot is overrated and will cost an arm and a leg. Josh Manson would be interesting but Anaheim is comfortably in a playoff spot at this point (could always change though). Justin Braun would be kinda interesting. Cheap ($1.8mil AAV) veteran right-handed defenceman with seemingly good defensive metrics. Probably more ideally a high-end 3rd pairing guy but if Muzzin still has the ability to elevate those types of players (which remains to be seen right now) it could work.

The other option would be targeting guys with 1 year left on their deals still, in which case I'm right back on the "acquire Damon Severson" train (would be tricky with the cap though).

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2021, 11:18:47 AM
Dallas including one of their top prospects in Wyatt Johnston kinda throws off the value here. I really don't see why they'd do that.

True enough but I don't see the Leafs throwing in one of their top prospects, plus a 1st without getting something decent in return, especially for a rental. I also don't see Dallas letting Kilngberg go. They will have space to sign him because they can let some old guys walk like Radulov and Pavelski. That's save them 13.25 mill. If we're giving up a 1st again it has to be for some kind of term.

No high priced rentals, period. If they're a pending UFA, the Leafs shouldn't be giving up more than a 4th round pick. I'm happy for the team to only add depth pieces and injury insurance types at the deadline.

https://twitter.com/puckreportnhl/status/1479586879716696065
https://twitter.com/jeffmarek/status/1477631377189347334
https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/living-dangerously-with-john-klingberg

QuoteKlingberg, Future Cup Champ?

Despite Klingberg's two-year slump, I still think he has the game to be a difference-maker on a strong team. At a $4.25M cap hit on an expiring contract, Klingberg may well be the missing piece to put a contender over the top.

Is your team deep on talented Fs and left-handed Ds, but thin at RD?

Are you looking for a top-end PP1 point man?

Is your system predicated on stretching the ice east-west (on offense) and killing plays early in the NZ (on defense)?

Do you habitually swarm 2v1 to stop the cycle and recover the puck in DZ coverage?

If you've answered yes to all of these questions, then:

1. You have a pretty good team
2. Klingberg is the man for you

https://twitter.com/hayyyshayyy/status/1131626934247534592

So.... how can we squeeze him into the mix

I'm hoping he flies a bit under the radar, as a lot of the early focus seems to be on Manson, Subban, Ristolainen and Chiarot for some reason, but my guess is Klingberg would still go for a first round pick.

Still, I think he would be a very good addition, and his underlying numbers are very good.  Less of what the Leafs need, but still an interesting acquisition would be Colin Miller from Buffalo for some depth.

Quote from: louisstamos on January 07, 2022, 11:59:55 PM
I'm hoping he flies a bit under the radar, as a lot of the early focus seems to be on Manson, Subban, Ristolainen and Chiarot for some reason, but my guess is Klingberg would still go for a first round pick.

Still, I think he would be a very good addition, and his underlying numbers are very good.  Less of what the Leafs need, but still an interesting acquisition would be Colin Miller from Buffalo for some depth.

Colin Miller has been atrocious though...

https://twitter.com/mdefranks/status/1479938731683557380

With days left before the deadline, the Leafs could use the loophole on the CBA and go for it.

Get Jakob Chychrun, he is sideline for 2 to 4 weeks, make it 4 weeks and activate him at the playoffs.
Get a goalie (Fleury or Forsberg are my prefired choice) and end this Mrasek experience
Get Garland

Don't know how they would do that, but just do it Dubas, go All in, with the goalies slumps that we are in, Leafs are not even make it to game 7...