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Messages - bustaheims

#1
Quote from: Joe on July 16, 2024, 08:57:40 AMSo more than what Bertuzzi got?

If Knies can produce similar to Bertuzzi, I'd argue the rest of his game would bump him ahead of Bert, yeah.

A contract like this is a bit of a gamble on the player's future - paying him less than what you think he will be worth but more than what he's currently worth. LA did well on that here, as Byfield is probably a ~$5.5M guy right now, but if last season was the beginning of his breakout rather than him approaching his ceiling, he could easily become a $8M+ guy. I don't know if that's necessarily true of Knies, but I think the team needs to make a similar bet (lower AAV, but same theory behind it). Risk a slight overpay for a potentially significant underpay.
#2
Quote from: herman on July 15, 2024, 09:37:14 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 15, 2024, 09:09:58 AMThat is ultimately Marner's playoff issue - as things tighten up after the first few games of the first round, instead of simplifying his game and moving the puck more quickly, he overthinks and overcomplicates. If a coaching staff can break him of that mindset, I think we'll see his game translate really well to the tighter checking that comes as the playoffs progress. He's a great precision passer, even when he doesn't have a ton of time, and he'd be able to create holes instead of trying to find them.

Precision passing is great and all; for the playoffs (and regular season), the Leafs need to lean on attacking with area passes so linemates can skate into the puck with speed to create those rush chances. Especially with SBA ice being routinely sludge, where 50% of our games are played, relying so heavily on precision and finesse is just a recipe for disappointment.

An effective area pass still requires precision. You have to be able to put the puck into the part of the area you're aiming for where it's most likely to be received by your teammate and not just result in a turnover.
#3
Quote from: herman on July 15, 2024, 08:13:57 AMNot a weird thought, but Marner is not only younger, but better than Huberdeau (when they were the same age). Caveat being that when Huberdeau was younger, Florida was shite. Performance numbers tend to follow the tide. Huberdeau has a technically stronger shot, but Marner has a higher goal rate (Matthews and Tavares and Nylander tend to draw open looks for their linemates).

They have similar playoff outputs save for one outlier year for each.

The fun thing, is Huberdeau's career year appears to have been sparked by the change in coaching that favoured counter-attack rush chances (Huberdeau's individual rush attempts at 5v5 went from 4 to 10 between 2020-21 and 2021-22 when he had his 115 pt season; similarly big upticks for other Panthers), which is essentially the direction I've been wanting the Leafs to lean into (see fasstholes). I think Marner would absolutely cook in such an environment if he isn't given so much time to overthink and just weave magic out of chaos.

Guess who leads the Leafs in rush chances (and in not overthinking; or thinking at all)?

That is ultimately Marner's playoff issue - as things tighten up after the first few games of the first round, instead of simplifying his game and moving the puck more quickly, he overthinks and overcomplicates. If a coaching staff can break him of that mindset, I think we'll see his game translate really well to the tighter checking that comes as the playoffs progress. He's a great precision passer, even when he doesn't have a ton of time, and he'd be able to create holes instead of trying to find them.
#4
Toronto Blue Jays / Re: 2024 Blue Jays
July 12, 2024, 08:49:16 AM
Quote from: L K on July 12, 2024, 07:36:40 AMKiermaier is still being credited with a +0.5 WAR on the season entirely due to defense.  He's not a 10 million dollar player.  The smartest thing for teams would be to not claim him.  Make the Jays buy him out and then sign him for league minimum to be your 4th outfielder.

Though, really, unless the Jays have someone they need to get back on the roster (they don't, as far as I can tell) or a prospect who's ready to take over on a full-time basis (also, not seeing anyone fitting that description), there's no reason for the Jays to release him until after the trade deadline (if they even bother, at that point). The season is lost and they have to pay him any way. They're just continuing a trend we've seen since MLB eliminated their two deadline system - teams place guys on the fringe of their rosters on waivers to see if anyone will take them on at full freight. If not, then they'll try to trade them while including cash to cover significant portions of their salary. It's an attempt to get under the luxury tax threshold.

Quote from: L K on July 12, 2024, 07:36:40 AMAlso, once again, the NHL is stupid when the David Kampf of the Leafs is making 10.5M and we are bitching about Marner making 11M.  Screw the salary cap.

I get your point, and while MLB doesn't have a true cap, the luxury tax - and the associated penalties with exceeding it - has acted as a soft cap. The salary discrepancies are much more reflective of revenue differences than systemic differences. If the NHL had revenue numbers like MLB, we'd be bitching about Marner earning $30M+, how that's limiting the team's ability to fully flex their financial strengths in free agency and potentially having a negative impact on their draft position.
#5
Quote from: Frank E on July 10, 2024, 05:24:33 PMSure, but they need centremen.

Well, then it's a good thing Jarnkrok started in the league as a center!

Seriously, though, I don't get the push by some to move him. You're not getting a better player for that money and there's better options to move if you're just looking to clear space. His role on the team needs to be adjusted - and, hopefully, the new coaching staff will recognize that - but he provides good value, is a solid defensive presence, and can chip in offensively. He's not a cap dump guy.
#6
Quote from: cw on July 09, 2024, 04:48:43 PMSigned more than 8 days ago.
Still not on the roster.
I don't recall anything quite like it in the NHL ...

The longer this goes on, the more it feels like the information Simmons relayed is close to the truth. While it could just be a matter of difficulties with Hakanpaa being overseas or otherwise unable to get seen by the Leafs' medical team, you'd have to think that would have been resolved by now. The fact we haven't heard a peep about it - no leaks, nothing official, not even a whisper or suggestion he's even been in town - concerns me. Could easily be nothing, but could also easily be that things with his knees are potentially career threatening.
#7
Regardless of what play-style is en vogue, one thing has always been true - the deeper you get into the playoffs, the harder it gets to find time and space. Some playmakers adapt well to that and make quicker, often simpler decisions with the puck. Others try to lean into what worked for them in the regular season, and those are the types that struggle as things tighten up defensively.

It's not about whether you're a perimeter player or a playmaker or any of that. It's how you adapt your game to the tighter defence and the different tempo of the playoffs. That's really what separates playoff performers from playoff "no-shows."
#8
Dubas is just dead set on building a weird Penguins-Leafs hybrid, huh? Feels like a not great idea, but, cool.
#9
Quote from: Joe on July 08, 2024, 08:10:00 PMOther than his name I don't understand at all what the appeal would be.

What's his ceiling? Kapanen? Honestly what use would be have. He's not a centre, he's not a defensive specialist, he's not a penalty killer, he's not tough. He doesn't address any of the needs the leafs have.

Like others have said, he's a potential cheap depth scoring option and possibly a diamond in the rough, with the right coaching and other resources could blossom into a quality player. He's not an exciting add, nor does he fill a pressing need - which is why no one is suggesting adding him as more than someone who could potentially bounce between the Leafs and Marlies - but he probably comes cheap with no commitment, so what's the harm, especially considering the UFA market has basically been picked bare.
#10
Quote from: Frank E on July 08, 2024, 01:35:40 PMI'd say the risk is if big brother doesn't like how little brother is being treated RE ice time, linemates, getting sent down, etc... or if it looks like Alex is getting preferential treatment...those things could create some issues/dissention.

That doesn't seem like it would an issue with Willy. He doesn't let much bother him and he seems to understand the business and winning aspects of the league. Unless Alex is actually performing well and getting the shaft, he'd be in board with whatever needs to happen.

That being said, the younger Nylander seems like a prime candidate for a PTO if he doesn't sign somewhere. I'd also have no problem signing him to whatever current buriable max cap hit is ($1.15m, I think) - though that does create potential cap complications, it also makes a waivers claim a little less likely.
#11
The biggest question re: Stolarz is how he'll hold up to what will almost certainly be a career high in starts by a fairly wide margin (at least, at the NHL level). His current high is 24 - this past season - and it's a pretty significant jump from that total to the 35-40 he'll be expected to handle this year.
#12
Quote from: cw on July 02, 2024, 05:57:53 PMhttps://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/roster
Tanev, OEL, Stolarz & even Mermis added today are on the roster.
Hakanpää isn't.

Pending a medical?

Seems likely, considering everything we've heard.
#13
https://twitter.com/sunhornby/status/1808263546956046418

More Marlies. Myers has a decent amount of NHL experience, so he's probably near the top of the call up list.
#14
Quote from: Rob on July 02, 2024, 05:03:26 PM
Quote from: Highlander on July 02, 2024, 04:53:08 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 02, 2024, 04:49:56 PMIf you got Prime for the streaming service, you got it for the wrong reason.
elaborate?  THanks

Most people sign up for Amazon Prime for the free delivery of items ordered off Amazon.  It happens to include access to Amazon Prime Video. 

Yup. All the other stuff are really just perks of the membership - music, streaming, photo storage, games, etc. They're all useful, but not as good as the dedicated alternatives. The free one or two day delivery with no purchase minimum, on the other hand, is really the main selling feature.
#15
If you got Prime for the streaming service, you got it for the wrong reason.