Leafs @ Canadiens - Apr. 28th, 8:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[CarltonTheBear]

@
30-13-5, 65 points | 21-27-9, 51 points
Projected Lines

Foligno-Matthews-Marner Galchenyuk-Tavares-Nylander Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Simmonds Thornton-Brooks-Spezza Rielly-Brodie Muzzin-Holl Sandin-Dermott Campbell

Tatar-Danault-Caufield Toffoli-Suzuki-Armia Anderson-Kotkaniemi-Perry Lehkonen-Staal-Evans Chiarot-Weber Edmundson-Petry Gustafsson-Merrill Allen

Scratches

Pierre Engvall   Nicholas Robertson Ben Hutton

Jonathan Drouin Paul Byron Alexander Romanov Brett Kulak

Taxi Squad

Stefan Noesen Martin Marincin Timothy Liljegren Joseph Duszak Michael Hutchinson

Michael Frolik Xavier Ouellet Charlie Lindgren

Game Notes

TOR
•Campbell (13-2-1, 2.21 GAA, .922 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
•Toronto has 8 games left in the season and 4 of them come against Montreal, their most likely 1st round opponent at this point

MTL
•Allen (9-9-4, 2.49 GAA, .913 Sv%) will likely start for the Canadiens
•Montreal still controls their fate as far as the 4th playoff spot in the North goes. They have a 6 point lead over Calgary with a game in hand and a 10 point lead over Vancouver although the Canucks have played 5 less games. But a 4-8 run in their last 12 games has made everyone in Montreal tense up a little bit
Injuries

•Zach Bogosian - Upper Body - Injured Reserve •Zach Hyman - Knee - Injured Reserve     •Frederik Andersen - Lower Body - Injured Reserve •Riley Nash - Knee - Injured Reserve •Scott Sabourin - Hand - Injured Reserve

•Jonathan Drouin - Illness - Questionable Wednesday •Paul Byron - Lower Body - Questionable Wednesday •Carey Price - Concussion - Injured Reserve •Brendan Gallagher - Thumb - Injured Reserve

Stream Options

BilaSport.net
Sportsurge.net

[CarltonTheBear]

If Toronto and Ottawa both win in regulation, the Maple Leafs will qualify for the playoffs.

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 28, 2021

[LittleHockeyFan]

oh, good. Gallagher is out. I can't stand that twerp.

[LittleHockeyFan]

wwwwwwwwwwwwhyyyyyyyyyyy is this an 8 pm start?   

[L K]

If Toronto and Ottawa both win in regulation, the Maple Leafs will qualify for the playoffs.

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 28, 2021

I don't think that's right?

Toronto - 48GP - 65P - 24RW - 29ROW - 30W   (H2H 3-3-1 7P)
Vancouver - 42GP - 41P - 13RW - 16 ROW - 19W (H2H 4-3-0 8P)

So if Toronto wins/Vancouver loses today even in regulation for both:

49GP - 67P - 25RW - 30ROW - 31W
43GP - 41P - 13RW - 16ROW - 19W

So if the Leafs go 0-7-0 to finish the year and the Canucks go 13-0-0 it would be
56GP - 67P - 25RW - 30ROW - 31W
56GP - 67P - 26RW - 29ROW - 32W

So Vancouver would still have the tiebreaker win because they would have one more regulation win.

I think the magic number is still 5.

Same thing with Montreal.
47GP - 51P - 19RW - 20ROW -21W
the lose and go to 48GP - 51P - 19RW - 20ROW -21W

They have 8 games left so if they went 8-0-0

56GP - 67P - 27RW - 27ROW - 28W

They would have the Leafs by the RW tie-breaker still.

[CarltonTheBear]

He goes through more of the math/possibilities in the thread, it might be worth checking it. Since teams are only playing other teams in the division this season it gets a bit more complicated, because for teams like Vancouver or Montreal to completely win out the rest of the year it means a certain amount of guaranteed losses for Edmonton. So even in those scenarios where they win out the Leafs would still be in over Edmonton (assuming regulation wins for the Leafs/sens tonight).

[L K]

He goes through more of the math/possibilities in the thread, it might be worth checking it. Since teams are only playing other teams in the division this season it gets a bit more complicated, because for teams like Vancouver or Montreal to completely win out the rest of the year it means a certain amount of guaranteed losses for Edmonton. So even in those scenarios where they win out the Leafs would still be in over Edmonton (assuming regulation wins for the Leafs/sens tonight).

Ahhh yep.  Makes sense now.  Edmonton has 7 games against Vancouver/Montreal

[Nik]

Forward Jonathan Drouin will take an indefinite leave of absence from the team for personal reasons.

He was placed on long-term injured reserve by the club. We ask everyone to respect his privacy. pic.twitter.com/bfy5F7afY6

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) April 28, 2021

Hope Drouin sorts stuff out.

[CarltonTheBear]

He missed their last 3 games with what was described as a non-COVID illness. Hope he's ok.

[herman]

Man, that sucks.

Will Keefe entertain the Cole Caufield vs Nick Robertson matchup then?

[Guilt Trip]

Man, that sucks.

Will Keefe entertain the Cole Caufield vs Nick Robertson matchup then?

Doubt it. I don't see Robertson getting into any of the remaining games so they don't burn a year off his ELC.

[bustaheims]

Doubt it. I don't see Robertson getting into any of the remaining games so they don't burn a year off his ELC.

That's definitely a factor that will keep him out of the lineup unless the team is in a position where they're in a must win game and don't have other options to fill in for injuries, etc. They're not going to waste that last game without a really good team-success based reason.

[hap_leaf]

wwwwwwwwwwwwhyyyyyyyyyyy is this an 8 pm start?   

When I was a kid, Wed night games at 8 was the normal routine. Its nostalgic!

[herman]

Doubt it. I don't see Robertson getting into any of the remaining games so they don't burn a year off his ELC.

That's definitely a factor that will keep him out of the lineup unless the team is in a position where they're in a must win game and don't have other options to fill in for injuries, etc. They're not going to waste that last game without a really good team-success based reason.

why do you guys hate fun

[Significantly Insignificant]

Doubt it. I don't see Robertson getting into any of the remaining games so they don't burn a year off his ELC.

That's definitely a factor that will keep him out of the lineup unless the team is in a position where they're in a must win game and don't have other options to fill in for injuries, etc. They're not going to waste that last game without a really good team-success based reason.

why do you guys hate fun

Cuz Captain John Tavares told us to.