Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]

[herman]

Wonder why Dom's model doesn't look at him very favourably. He looks fine but basically nothing more than a reliable 4 guy. Wonder if he just had a bit of a down year last year.

Isn't that basically what he is though? Play driver through facilitation, not his own individual offensive contribution. Game Score is also a very offense-oriented model.
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1314702769929027585

Jake Muzzin for comparison
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1314613640725704705

[herman]

https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1314700456548016128

Explainer for the JFresh player card: it's just Evolving-Hockey's model in percentile form, weighted average of the past three seasons (heavier by recency).
https://jfresh.substack.com/p/player-card-explainer

The player we did not bother to court, because Brodie was interested in the Leafs for cheaper and less term.
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1315790400985104386

Brodie was the target for his defensive contributions: he helps trap pucks in the OZ and stifles attacks in the NZ. He also isn't going to steal chances away from his forwards, who will primarily be Matthews and Tavares' lines. Those lines get like 20-28 shifts per game and shot attempts occur ~70-80% of the time; if a defenseman is taking those shots, less than half make it on net, and like 1% of them go in. We want our forwards, who have a much higher scoring chance and finishing rate to have the majority of the chances we generate.

[Guilt Trip]

If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.

[.]

Wonder why Dom's model doesn't look at him very favourably. He looks fine but basically nothing more than a reliable 4 guy. Wonder if he just had a bit of a down year last year.

Or, it's not a representative model.

[Highlander]

If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.

He definitely had some health issues to start the season, when he came back to the Bubble, he looked way better than before the enforced layoff.  Hope he stays healthy and benefits from a skilled defensive partner.

[Guilt Trip]

If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.

He definitely had some health issues to start the season, when he came back to the Bubble, he looked way better than before the enforced layoff.  Hope he stays healthy and benefits from a skilled defensive partner.

True but he needs to elevate his game regardless of partner. Let's hope he does.

[Nik]

I don't think expecting Rielly to be a 65-70 point a year defenseman tracks. Last year he was at a 47p/82g pace roughly what he was in 17-18.

I think it's fair to expect him to be in the 50's, maybe even upper 50's. But he really wasn't far off from that last year so I'm not sure he needs any excuses.

[Guilt Trip]

I don't think expecting Rielly to be a 65-70 point a year defenseman tracks. Last year he was at a 47p/82g pace roughly what he was in 17-18.

I think it's fair to expect him to be in the 50's, maybe even upper 50's. But he really wasn't far off from that last year so I'm not sure he needs any excuses.

I'm not just talking points. His overall play was bad last year for his standards.

[Nik]

Even if that's true, and I don't know how much I agree with that, I'm not sure having a single injury disrupted off year is where I'd lose patience with a solid contributor on a great contract.

[L K]

I don't think expecting Rielly to be a 65-70 point a year defenseman tracks. Last year he was at a 47p/82g pace roughly what he was in 17-18.

I think it's fair to expect him to be in the 50's, maybe even upper 50's. But he really wasn't far off from that last year so I'm not sure he needs any excuses.

Yeah I mean I don't think we can expect him to score 17 even strength goals again or have a 9% shooting percentage...especially with so many shoot first forwards.  I think 60 points is reasonable to want for him though as you said, high 50s is probably a more likely number. 

[Highlander]

If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.

He definitely had some health issues to start the season, when he came back to the Bubble, he looked way better than before the enforced layoff.  Hope he stays healthy and benefits from a skilled defensive partner.

True but he needs to elevate his game regardless of partner. Let's hope he does.

Do you mean you expect him to play Defense as well?  Gosh, let me scratch my brow on this one! ;)

[OldTimeHockey]

If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.

Who's making excuses for him?

[herman]

https://twitter.com/dylanfremlin/status/1334495228942663682
Lots of Brodie clips and charts

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/2260574/2020/12/26/t-j-brodie-maple-leafs-defence/

Brodie also became known for, of all things, doing freestyle raps from time to time, and later, for a fascination with odd conspiracy theories. ?If there?s one thing we disagree on a lot, it?s his conspiracy theories,? Giordano said, chuckling.

They go a lot into how good Brodie is, but this is where I got some whiplash.