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Messages - princedpw

#1
Quote from: Dappleganger on June 13, 2024, 07:51:24 AM
Quote from: princedpw on June 12, 2024, 10:24:33 PM
Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 03:46:49 PM
  • UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
  • Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term
These sources are either bad at math or their "big fish" are not the same as my big fish.  We don't have enough cap space for Domi+Bertuzzi+2 good D+even a bad goalie who can play 50 games (assuming we keep Marner).

One of Järnkrok or Kämpf would have to go, and if, a big IF, Domi signs for $4m x 4 and Bert accepts $5m x 5 they theoretically could do it. It would mean not bringing back any of their RFAs, and going really thin at goalie and depth D.

Something like this:





That goalie situation just doesn't seem reasonable to me .... I like Martin Jones as a 3rd stringer a lot!  But not as a guy we need to play 50 games when Woll gets injured.  Some of Bertuzzi's 5 million needs to be allocated to a goaltender.
#2
Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 03:46:49 PM
  • UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
  • Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term
These sources are either bad at math or their "big fish" are not the same as my big fish.  We don't have enough cap space for Domi+Bertuzzi+2 good D+even a bad goalie who can play 50 games (assuming we keep Marner).
#3
Here are my random non-sequitor 2 cents:


- the leafs were unlucky their core players chose to maximize their mid-career paychecks - not all groups of young players either choose to do so or are in a position to do so

- the leafs were much more unlucky that there was a flat cap over the past 5 years - their core signed paychecks under the expectation that the cap would rise substantially over the arc of those contracts, allowing the team to fill out the players around them.  This really could have made all the difference in several playoffs that they lost by a goal.

- Marner's agent is smart, He is not going to negotiate a contract right now because Marner's stock is at an all-time low. He's going to wait at least until Marner cranks it up during the season and starts scoring at a 1.5ppg before he even considers negotiating.  Even if Marner wants to stay with the team, he has no incentive to negotiate right now. Let's drop this topic and talk about it after the playoffs next year.
#4
Bender and Herman make reasonable points.

But, the folks running the team have some power —- unfortunately, I don't see them using at the moment.  Like, how about them rally everybody in the organization to defend Marner?  Reilly, Matthews, Nylander (already did defend him!), Tavares, Domi, Sundin, Gilmour.   Have everybody say: "Marner is a part of a team.  The team wins and loses as a unit. It is not on one guy.  I, Auston Matthews, am going to stick with him to the end of the earth.  Everybody else get on board."  That should have been coming out of every guy's mouth the moment the series was over.  Make it seem like you have to keep him because he is too good.

Just like anybody including Gretzky, can be traded, I just don't believe anyone *has* to be traded.  Manipulate public opinion!  Do that instead of trading him at a disadvantage.  And then, sure, if you get a deal that improves the team, trade him and admit you lied later.
#5
Quote from: Bender on June 03, 2024, 11:58:07 AM
Quote from: princedpw on June 03, 2024, 11:34:02 AM
Quote from: herman on June 03, 2024, 10:10:51 AM32 Thoughts June 3, 2024
Transcription errors are my own. I tried to trim out the waffling and filler as best I could.

Timestamp: 1:06
QuoteEF: Everybody is trying to be really careful here, but one of the things people have told me is not to be surprised if this plays out over next season, Marner and Toronto. Now there's a lot of time between here and then, and things can always change, but this is such a delicate conversation between player and team because everyone is determined to look like a winner here.

The Leafs are determined to either make a good trade, or, with the cap room that's created by that trade, do something big that they know they can't afford to have a swing and miss with this one. And also, the player is determined -- and more importantly the people around the player -- are determined to do this that make themselves look good, and they're not going to agree to anything that they think puts them in a bad light. So this is a really complicated thing going in.

I want to throw a couple other points out there to you:
#1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner if he starts the year unsigned. And you can't avoid that. And I'm the kind of person who's like, if you want to bet on yourself, bet on yourself. I've bet on myself before, other people have bet on themselves before, if that's what Marner wants to do, I think he has all the right in the world to do it. But he has to understand that some of the fanbase is not going to react very well that, and you have to play through that. Are you comfortable with that? Can you play through that? I do believe that's one of the things that's been discussed.

I think with the Maple Leafs, the other issue that they are dealing with here, and I think there are people in the organization that feel very strongly about this, is that they traded Nazem Kadri a couple of years ago when they were mad at him. Kadri got suspended twice in a row, there are people who felt very strongly at the time that they had to make that trade, but Nazem Kadri went somewhere else, sorted himself out, was a critical member of a Stanley Cup champion, and is a player Toronto very much missed after he left.

And I think there are people in the organization who are looking at this and believe, could this be Kadri 2.0? where Marner goes somewhere else, the spotlight is less intense, he learns how to balance everything, he goes out and becomes a key player on a Stanley Cup champion in another city. Which I do believe could happen. To me that is a very legitimate thing, that Marner could go somewhere quieter and really thrive. I think he's a great player and can become an even better player without the spotlight. I do think there are people in the organization who are very scared of the possibility of that happening, and that's part of the background to all this.

If the contract demands on both sides are crazy, it's going to lead to an eventual divorce anyway. But I don't think there's a certain w- I know there's people who are 100% certain he's getting traded... On Sunday June 2nd, I don't know that I'm so certain of that. I think one of the biggest challenges here are going to be sort of like the feelings of everybody involved. I just think this is going to take a lot of diplomacy for a lot of people to do properly.

I hate almost everything in this comment.  The organization won't succeed if they're worried about what other people are thinking.  Fans are stupid and short-sighted.  Don't let them dictate your moves.

The only useful objective is to "make a good trade" and if you can't then continue to use your assets in such a way that maximizes team success.

Seems like all pretty reasonable comments to me. It doesn't say anywhere that the team will do anything dictated by what they think the fanbase thinks (as if we all think the same anyway).

I am referring to remarks like the #1 point: " #1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner . . ."

Building a winning team is tough enough - I'm hoping short term fan reactions aren't a major factor.
#6
Quote from: herman on June 03, 2024, 10:10:51 AM32 Thoughts June 3, 2024
Transcription errors are my own. I tried to trim out the waffling and filler as best I could.

Timestamp: 1:06
QuoteEF: Everybody is trying to be really careful here, but one of the things people have told me is not to be surprised if this plays out over next season, Marner and Toronto. Now there's a lot of time between here and then, and things can always change, but this is such a delicate conversation between player and team because everyone is determined to look like a winner here.

The Leafs are determined to either make a good trade, or, with the cap room that's created by that trade, do something big that they know they can't afford to have a swing and miss with this one. And also, the player is determined -- and more importantly the people around the player -- are determined to do this that make themselves look good, and they're not going to agree to anything that they think puts them in a bad light. So this is a really complicated thing going in.

I want to throw a couple other points out there to you:
#1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner if he starts the year unsigned. And you can't avoid that. And I'm the kind of person who's like, if you want to bet on yourself, bet on yourself. I've bet on myself before, other people have bet on themselves before, if that's what Marner wants to do, I think he has all the right in the world to do it. But he has to understand that some of the fanbase is not going to react very well that, and you have to play through that. Are you comfortable with that? Can you play through that? I do believe that's one of the things that's been discussed.

I think with the Maple Leafs, the other issue that they are dealing with here, and I think there are people in the organization that feel very strongly about this, is that they traded Nazem Kadri a couple of years ago when they were mad at him. Kadri got suspended twice in a row, there are people who felt very strongly at the time that they had to make that trade, but Nazem Kadri went somewhere else, sorted himself out, was a critical member of a Stanley Cup champion, and is a player Toronto very much missed after he left.

And I think there are people in the organization who are looking at this and believe, could this be Kadri 2.0? where Marner goes somewhere else, the spotlight is less intense, he learns how to balance everything, he goes out and becomes a key player on a Stanley Cup champion in another city. Which I do believe could happen. To me that is a very legitimate thing, that Marner could go somewhere quieter and really thrive. I think he's a great player and can become an even better player without the spotlight. I do think there are people in the organization who are very scared of the possibility of that happening, and that's part of the background to all this.

If the contract demands on both sides are crazy, it's going to lead to an eventual divorce anyway. But I don't think there's a certain w- I know there's people who are 100% certain he's getting traded... On Sunday June 2nd, I don't know that I'm so certain of that. I think one of the biggest challenges here are going to be sort of like the feelings of everybody involved. I just think this is going to take a lot of diplomacy for a lot of people to do properly.

I hate almost everything in this comment.  The organization won't succeed if they're worried about what other people are thinking.  Fans are stupid and short-sighted.  Don't let them dictate your moves.

The only useful objective is to "make a good trade" and if you can't then continue to use your assets in such a way that maximizes team success.
#7
I think Stamkos will cost Toronto 20% more to sign here than Tampa ... so if Tampa doesn't want him for a particular price, I'm not sure it will be a good deal for us.

Also, we just don't need him as much as we need a goaltender, defense, and a 2/3 center.
#8
If you got to choose, which free agent would you go after first?  And what is the max contract (cap hit/year) you would give him (one dollar more and you decline the deal)?
#9
Quote from: herman on May 29, 2024, 11:43:25 AMhttps://twitter.com/tlndc/status/1795803429128008027
Jiri Tlusty energy in this headline

I feel Knies underperformed quite a bit relative to expectations and to his position in the lineup along the side our top offensive players for most of the year.  Compare Knies 15 goals in 80 games to 15/14 goals for McMann/Robertson in just 56 games each, many of which were with lesser linemates.  Knies defense was also not one of his strengths.

I am unsure what the expected improvement curve for a guy his age with his experience is, but lets hope it is steep.
#10
Quote from: Bender on May 26, 2024, 11:48:09 AM
Quote from: herman on May 26, 2024, 09:40:04 AMhttps://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1794401122054017253
See this? Marner is great at passing into the slot! Too bad it's to Joel Edmundson all the time

https://twitter.com/jhanhky/status/1794735118919303300
Oh wait, that's why it's always to Joel Edmundson.

J "but the chart says" Fresh needs to sit down.

Not all passes to the slot may be equal in value, but the fact that he's #2 on the list still probably tells us something.

Humans look for simple single explanations to complex phenomena and sometimes there just aren't single simple explanations.  The media and the fans are being far too hard on a single guy.
#11
Another thing to remember on Marner is that fans have very short memories.  If he leads the leafs in scoring next year (entirely possible or even likely if he's healthy), fans will appreciate his contributions...

The worst time to make a trade is when you feel you have to.  Hard to imagine a scenario in which trading Marner makes the team better.

One thing I would be excited about for next year is a full season of Marner/Matthews/Nylander split across 3 lines to see how that works.
#12
Jacob Chychrun seems like an interesting trade target who would fit into the leafs cap space.  I wonder what it would take to pry him loose.  Robertson, Liljegren, + ?
#13
Suppose the leafs don't trade anyone. Here is a rough estimate of how much we can afford to pay free agents ... please do check my work!

10 forwards (currently under contract): 55.5M
2 RFA forwards (Robertson, Dewar): 2.2M?
4 defensemen (I'm not counting Cade Webber): 12M
1 RFA defenseman (Liljegren): 2M?
1 goalie: .8M

Total: 72.5
Cap: 87.7
Free space: 15.2
Am I getting that right?

It seems like we need at least:
A) 1 top 6 forward + 1 other forward (could be Cowan at .9M)
B) 1 top 4 defenseman + 1 other defenseman (could be a cheapo)
C) 1 starting goalie

Looks like we could splurge in one of the categories and get a 7M player and then skimp in the others.  I have no idea if there are any goalies available or what they would be going for.

Eg:
Domi (4M), Cowan (.8)
Tanev (5M), Edmunson/whoever (1.5M)
Goalie (4.2M)

That probably leaves us with a pretty terrible goalie (though we might hope for injury luck with Woll), zero offense from the defense outside of Reilly (and a risky injury record), and a slightly worse set of forwards than last year. (I think Bertuzzi was better than his numbers ... in the 2nd half of the year, every line he played on played well even if his numbers were fairly middling. Knies, McMann and maybe Robertson might be slightly more impactful next year than last)

Edit: My source for numbers: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs
#15
Quote from: L K on May 17, 2024, 08:42:35 PM
Quote from: princedpw on May 17, 2024, 07:15:32 PM
Quote from: Highlander on May 17, 2024, 04:11:56 PMthe more I read about him, the more I like the pick. Holds players accountable and that is exaclty what a few of these guys need. I wonder how much player input he will have on acquisitions etc with Treviling?

Ok. I need to know what "holding players accountable" means and how that helps the leafs win a game 7.  Like specifically, what does a coach holding players accountable do and why does it make Samsonov save 1 extra goal or Marner score an extra goal?

 

To me, it looks like the Leafs want to win. And they have played well in many high pressure situations. They haven't won a game 7. But is the pressure really noticeably higher in that game 7 than game 5 or 6 that have to win?

I think a fairer argument for the team is that they struggle to close games out rather than play in high pressure situations.

2018 - win Game 6 to tie it 3-3 lose 7-4 in Game 7
2019 - win Game 5 to go up 3-2 and lose Game 6 4-2 and Game 7 5-1
2020 - win Game 4 to tie it 2-2 then lose Game 5 3-0
2021 - win game 4 to go up 3-1 and lose Game 5, Game 6, Game 7
2022 - win Game 5 to go up 3-2 then lose Game 6 and Game 7
2023 - win Game 4 to go up 3-1 then lose Game 5 and win Game 6; Win Game 4 to go 3-1 then lose Game 5
2024 - win Games 5/6 to tie it up 3-3 then lose Game 7

When the Leafs are facing potential elimination they are 4-9 since 2018
When the Leafs opponents are facing elimination they are 1-11

The Leafs can't put teams away when their opponent is up against the wall. 


Good point!