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Messages - princedpw

#1
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 11, 2024, 09:37:57 AM
Quote from: herman on July 11, 2024, 09:33:18 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 11, 2024, 09:31:00 AMI think I would almost rather see anybody at 3C alongside Nylander than Kampf (ok also Reaves) at this point.

Knies-Holmberg-Nylander could cook. Nylander can help on the right side draws. It just makes the 4th line very overpaid.

In terms of likelihood I would rank the possible 3C's to start the season as: 1) Holmberg (ugh), 2) Domi (ok), 3) Minten (meh), 4) Tavares (w/ Nylander at 2C the unquestionably best option), and of course 5) Kampf (ugh).

edit: I'd probably rather even see Dewar given a shot at 3C over Kampf right now.

What about Jarnkrok?  Something like

Knies - Matthews - Domi
McMann - Tavares - Marner
Robertson/Holmberg - Jarnkrok - Nylander
Dewar - Kampf - Holmberg/Reaves

Basically Holmberg/Jarnkrok can rotate at center in the D zone.  Nylander could also take some faceoffs.
#2
Quote from: Highlander on July 10, 2024, 02:59:35 PM
Quote from: herman on July 10, 2024, 01:17:49 PMhttps://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5626787/2024/07/10/nhl-teams-offseason-2024/
QuoteWhich NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams

8. Toronto Maple Leafs
Net Rating added: +14
Salary added: -$4 million

Key Additions: Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz

Key Departures: Tyler Bertuzzi, Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, Ilya Samsonov

It's looking more and more likely that the Leafs are running it back. Will this time be different? Maybe!

What helps make that decision feel like the best path forward is seeing where all of the league's top contenders lie — at the bottom of this list. Almost every contender from last season looks demonstrably worse going into 2024-25. The Leafs? They look better, and that closes the gap between them and the league's best considerably. The Leafs' 2024 offseason has put the team back on track after last season's questionable summer.

That stems entirely from the Leafs turning Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin into Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Those are comparatively strong upgrades that give Toronto one of its best blue lines during this era. Adding Anthony Stolarz, who was stellar last season, to replace Ilya Samsonov looks like a great move too.

The Leafs could still use a top-six winger to replace Tyler Bertuzzi, but were right to prioritize the back end. It could be what finally pushes the team toward a deep playoff run. This is a much stronger defensive group.
Its a nice positive assessment, that I concur with. I hope both Cowan and Minten can join the team. We need to get rid of Janrock or bury Reeves in the minors.  I don't think Treliving will do this.

Every time I watch Jarnkrok play, I think he provides great versatility and value per dollar given his low salary.
#3
I know next to nothing but a good 3rd liner needs to supply some offense and it doesn't look like Minten has shown enough in junior.  I'm thinking he tops out as a good 4th line center.
#4
Quote from: herman on July 01, 2024, 02:57:07 PMRobertson and Liljegren package

This harkens back to the good old days of Antropov, X, and 1st
#5
Quote from: cw on July 01, 2024, 12:56:55 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 01, 2024, 12:43:14 PMOk. Edmundson getting $3.8mil x 4 from LA and Lyubushkin getting $3.33mil x 3 from Dallas makes me feel fine about this one value wise at least. I still just had high hopes we'd be able to use this free agency period to really establish our entire top-4 D for a few years to come with 2 signings and this doesn't really do that. Hopefully Liljegren is able to take another step this season.

edit: Throw in Dumba at 2 years, $3.75mil AAV with those two.

Agreed.

I would never have signed Edmundson for that. Why wouldn't LA just re-sign Roy for what Washington gave him: $5.75?
Leafs talked with Edmundson.

I thought Lyubushkin did decently this time around but not that good.

Between the cap rise and GM desperation, dman salaries have risen.

I'll try to take a look at what AFP Analytics projected vs actual contracts for the dmen we were looking at when the dust settles. They were way off with Edmundson (2 x 1.7) & Lyubushkin (2 x 1.5) and low on Dumba (3 x 3.0)

It seems they rose for the low-end guys and not the high-end guys (Roy, Skejei, for example)
#6
Quote from: Bender on July 01, 2024, 09:00:40 AM
Quote from: herman on July 01, 2024, 08:38:11 AM
Quote from: L K on July 01, 2024, 07:41:01 AMLast 3 years:
Reinhart - 242GP 121G 122A 243P (28P in 43 playoff games) 41G 41A 82P/82GP 
Marner - 221GP 91G 190A 281P  (17P in 18 playoff games) 34G 70A 104P/82GP

I don't think it's entirely a fair comparison to look at their numbers BUT it continues the trend of Leafs players getting what they are worth while other teams are seeing some discounts on their players.

https://twitter.com/mrgrozz/status/1807758357492576546
T__T

It's a problem but it hasn't stopped players from playing in other expensive markets.
Quote from: herman on July 01, 2024, 08:43:14 AM
Quote from: Joe on July 01, 2024, 08:39:53 AMYeah but then you're living in Texas.

And the state recuperates the lack of income tax revenue in other ways (property taxes, esp)

Also the sunbelt is about to be consumed by floods, hurricanes, and deadly humidity

Also, where and what the hell is Sachse?

I think the solution proposed in the video shows how much of a tax advantage the Southern states have. The solution requires the player, put away their money before taxes and he can't use it. It's an enormous advantage to have the liquidity of being able to use your money whenever you want to. And then, of course, you can't continue to live in the same city where you've been playing all your career. You have to move back to the states or some other low tax environment, despite your family in some other city.
#8
How much space do they have left?  Realistic 3C, 2RHD, winger options?
#9
Quote from: Dappleganger on June 30, 2024, 01:41:40 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2024, 01:28:00 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on June 30, 2024, 01:22:09 PMRealistically, would need to shed both Kämpf and Järnkrok to be able to bring Bertuzzi back.

Lilly must be gone if another higher-priced D is coming in.

Also, I have Holmberg as 3C. 😬

Yeah was just looking. Even just replacing Kampf with Dewar and re-signing Bertuzzi to a similiar discounted rate ($4.25mil) would still leave about $3.75mil for a 3C and 6D. Probably not enough to get an ideal 3C but I don't really know what the options are there anyway.

I'll tell you what my 3C option is, trade deadline pickup.


Maybe try Willy at 3C?



It seems like 3C (or higher end D) is more important than Bertuzzi ... Henrique/Wennberg?
#10
Quote from: herman on June 30, 2024, 02:41:47 PM
Quote from: princedpw on June 30, 2024, 02:31:49 PM
Quote from: herman on June 30, 2024, 02:26:00 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2024, 02:25:11 PMRemember though, ufa's definitely can't talk to teams before noon tomorrow.

But their agents are not team affiliated ;)

I am curious how you think this really works and how Mirtle would know the leafs are out on all top UFA defenders (and how even the leafs would know they are out).  It must be illegal to have an intermediary (such as an agent) negotiate on behalf of a player and team, no?  If they do it anyway, why trade for a guy's negotiating rights ever?  I'm not sure I understand what could be happening.

GM: I've got 6M in cap room for a key top pairing D man on the right side. Anyone in your portfolio fit that bill?

Agent: yeah I got a guy out on the west coast, but he likely isn't looking to move east and into Canada unless he can get 7+.

GM: thanks, we'll keep looking.

Agent: good luck! Oh hey does your roster need a bottom-6 energy winger?

Right.  " I got a guy out on the west coast, but he likely isn't looking to move east and into Canada unless he can get 7+."  With so many possible players fitting that description, I can't imagine who is being referred to.

Still, that discussion seems like clear tampering.
#11
Quote from: herman on June 30, 2024, 02:26:00 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2024, 02:25:11 PMRemember though, ufa's definitely can't talk to teams before noon tomorrow.

But their agents are not team affiliated ;)

I am curious how you think this really works and how Mirtle would know the leafs are out on all top UFA defenders (and how even the leafs would know they are out).  It must be illegal to have an intermediary (such as an agent) negotiate on behalf of a player and team, no?  If they do it anyway, why trade for a guy's negotiating rights ever?  I'm not sure I understand what could be happening.
#12
Quote from: dekedastardly on June 30, 2024, 09:54:04 AMThis team needs Zadorov

My understanding was that Zadorov was a #6 defenseman for most of his career but had 4 months of great play last year. I think whoever gets him at his purportedly massive ask will regret it in a year.
#13
My guess is that we are going to see RHD sign for outrageous numbers in the next couple of days - much higher than is being projected.  Maybe take the high side of the projections and add 25%.  There are too many buyers with too much cap space for the first time in years and not enough D to go around.
#14
Quote from: Bender on June 26, 2024, 01:43:12 PMMercenaries are nice but we need guys who want to be here and can play under pressure.

It is common to see guys outperform in a contract year - a one-year mercenary has a lot of incentive to perform well.
#15
Interesting post on Montour ... it seems like he is quite unpredictable and likely to be overpaid.  Possible bust-in-waiting.  Article makes me hope the leafs steer clear.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/brandon-montour-closeup/