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#1
NHL Transactions / Re: 2024-25 General Trades and...
Last post by Frank E - Yesterday at 08:19:35 PM
Quote from: herman on Yesterday at 07:55:20 PM
Quote from: herman on Yesterday at 01:55:47 PMhttps://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1803488356615008744
An expected move / cap dump for free

https://twitter.com/puckreportnhl/status/1803589550725325040
No soap operas

It's almost like it's a multi-billion dollar business, and decisions get made with under-performers.  Crazy. 
#2
NHL Transactions / Re: 2024-25 General Trades and...
Last post by bustaheims - Yesterday at 08:08:20 PM
Quote from: L K on Yesterday at 06:21:59 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on Yesterday at 06:08:41 PM
Quote from: Zee on Yesterday at 04:16:46 PMIt's almost like GMs think the final ended last night and started making trades

It's almost like the draft is next weekend...

Having 5 weeks between each Game to drag the Finals through the end of June was certainly a bizarre choice

They definitely made some . . . uh . . . choices with this schedule.
#4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2024 Offseason Thread: Cha...
Last post by cw - Yesterday at 07:51:57 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on Yesterday at 03:22:03 PM
Quote from: Bender on Yesterday at 11:30:25 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on Yesterday at 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

I would worry that Marner walking for nothing could significantly compromise their Cup chances with Matthews. Leafs management probably worries about that too.

UFA market for 2025-26 already looks slim - I doubt a bunch of them will be UFAs by the time Jul 2025 rolls around. If Marner is a UFA, he'll cash in big time.

Trading involves giving up assets to get back assets. It is not typically the asset boost adding a UFA can provide. Cap space for trading isn't as much of a direct boost.

That's why I think it is so unlikely Marner walks unless they piss him off. Leafs management will probably not let Marner significantly compromise their playoff contention (which his departure for nothing will probably do) because their jobs are on the line if they don't make headway there.

One thing the Leafs have going for them is Marner wanted to re-sign.
So they better cool it and not continue to make them "mad" (according to Friedman)

Agent Ferris knows all this and will play it like a concert violinist.
He's got them over a barrel.
#5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2024 Offseason Thread: Cha...
Last post by cw - Yesterday at 07:38:32 PM
Quote from: mr grieves on Yesterday at 05:30:15 PM
Quote from: cw on Yesterday at 11:50:43 AMThat depends on what the UFA market looks like for July 2025 in the spring of 2025.

I regard their 'window' with Matthews as the next four seasons. After that, if he still hasn't won here, why should he hang around?

If Marner looks to be headed out the door with no return and the Leafs feel the UFA market can't replace him (which I think is likely), then I would re-sign him because they've only got 3 more shots and no time to replace him.
$13 Mil seems steep. He'll be north of Nylander. I think he's a better player because he plays a 200-foot game. But I'm not sure it will be that high/as close to Matthews.
If the Leafs don't ante up, he'll get it or something very close on the open market and be gone quickly in early July 2025.

If the Leafs stop the stupid media chatter that they'd fed and play nice, they could get a home town discount. I believe him when he says that he wants to play in Toronto.

We have 4 years to win it with Matthews. That should guide a lot of their thinking on roster and contract decisions.

Is that $13M with the Leafs, over 8 years? Because to get that $104M on the open market would require someone go north of $14.5M. Where would he go to find a contract like that? What TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.

I doubt it would hit $13M with the Leafs. He has to be below Matthews. He should be more than Nylander because Nylander is not into a number things to be a complete player and Marner outscores him and plays 200 ft, etc. So in the Leafs salary structure, Marner is arguably between Nylander's $11.5 and Matthews $13.5.

Right now, there are only 7 UFA forwards for 2025-26 (not Marner or Tavares) under the age of 34 with .80 ppg or better last season. Like Marner, they cannot sign a new contract until July 1. A bunch of them will re-sign. If Marner gets added to that small crop of whatever UFAs are left, 31 teams potentially bidding to get a blue chip asset for free (aside from $) could drive his contract north of Matthews. Maybe he does what Matthews did - a 3-4 year deal so he can take another run at a hefty contract to finish his career.

There's bound to be a GM or two get silly. At that point, I think destination will become more important him and the dollars will get a little more sensible.

At the end of his current contract, Marner will have made $68M. Adding $100M +/- to that - how much does that matter at that point if he's going to a team that he thinks is best for him and his family. Florida or some low tax US state offering $100M closer to tax free vs what Tavares might be facing - that could tip the scales.
#6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2024 Offseason Thread: Cha...
Last post by Dappleganger - Yesterday at 07:37:46 PM
Quote from: Joe on Yesterday at 06:00:51 PM
Quote from: mr grieves on Yesterday at 05:30:15 PMWhat TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.


So find a way to have no state income tax in a Canadian province?

It's funny, taxing the "signing bonus" at 15% like the current John Tavares CRA situation gets you very close to the same tax level as a Florida 'no tax' state.
#7
NHL Transactions / Re: 2024-25 General Trades and...
Last post by Dappleganger - Yesterday at 07:31:34 PM
Quote from: L K on Yesterday at 06:21:59 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on Yesterday at 06:08:41 PM
Quote from: Zee on Yesterday at 04:16:46 PMIt's almost like GMs think the final ended last night and started making trades

It's almost like the draft is next weekend...

Having 5 weeks between each Game to drag the Finals through the end of June was certainly a bizarre choice

They also waited a week between the end of the 3rd round and the start of the finals.
#8
NHL Transactions / Re: 2024-25 General Trades and...
Last post by Guilt Trip - Yesterday at 07:28:46 PM
Quote from: L K on Yesterday at 06:21:59 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on Yesterday at 06:08:41 PM
Quote from: Zee on Yesterday at 04:16:46 PMIt's almost like GMs think the final ended last night and started making trades

It's almost like the draft is next weekend...

Having 5 weeks between each Game to drag the Finals through the end of June was certainly a bizarre choice
Dont even care who wins, not that I did after the Leafs went out, just end it. Way too long.
#9
NHL Transactions / Re: 2024-25 General Trades and...
Last post by L K - Yesterday at 06:21:59 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on Yesterday at 06:08:41 PM
Quote from: Zee on Yesterday at 04:16:46 PMIt's almost like GMs think the final ended last night and started making trades

It's almost like the draft is next weekend...

Having 5 weeks between each Game to drag the Finals through the end of June was certainly a bizarre choice
#10
NHL Transactions / Re: 2024-25 General Trades and...
Last post by bustaheims - Yesterday at 06:08:41 PM
Quote from: Zee on Yesterday at 04:16:46 PMIt's almost like GMs think the final ended last night and started making trades

It's almost like the draft is next weekend...