Capfriendly has McDavid at 15% this year.  I think it was Busta who said that when McDavid signed his contract, he was at 16% of the cap.  It's a high percentage for sure, but an argument can be made that Matthews might be the second best player in the league behind McDavid, or at the very least a part of that tier of players that could occupy the second spot behind McDavid.

My argument is that teams with the best, and fairly compensated, players in the league don't make the Finals.

Ah, that wasn't how it was framed in the initial.  You were missing the part about it being on a team going to the finals.  If you want to frame it as a team that has made it to the finals, then yes, that changes the lens that you are looking at the numbers through. 

I don't know why people have such a hard time with the term.  It's not just on this site, even the media narrative is around how this is so abnormal and only a Leaf thing.  If Matthews had signed a three year deal, I would have been okay. The team is getting flexibility here, and in a cap system that is a great thing to have.  Just because no other superstar has done it doesn't mean that somehow the Leafs are in a bad spot by doing it.  I  think this works well for both the team and the player. 

If the Leafs could extend Nylander for a year or two and then come back to the table, that would be great.  Nylander would have to be comfortable with betting on himself, and that he won't have some sort of catastrophic injury, but as the Leafs would be coming out of the Tavares contract, and they would have an idea of what they would be paying Marner, then you would have more options with Nylander. 

I agree with all this on the way the deal itself balances Matthews' and the team's need for flexibility.

The part that I'm stuck on is the AAV -- well, less that than the share of the cap Matthews will consume. If the cap's $90m when the deal kicks in, it'll be 14.7% share of the team's cap. Looking at CapFriendly's historical archive (back to 15-16 season), the highest share of the cap any one player consumed was 13.3% (Malkin in 15-16).

I'm excited to see Matthews shred the Leafs' regular season record book, but I don't see how the team assembles the depth to seriously contend until the cap's at $100m.

Capfriendly has McDavid at 15% this year.  I think it was Busta who said that when McDavid signed his contract, he was at 16% of the cap.  It's a high percentage for sure, but an argument can be made that Matthews might be the second best player in the league behind McDavid, or at the very least a part of that tier of players that could occupy the second spot behind McDavid.

https://twitter.com/cbcnews/status/1694367249375609126
I hate giving this douche-nozzle airtime, but I don't mind the public recognition that he absolutely is one.

I genuinely have no idea why people keep enabling these narcissistic Farquaads.

Because the light needs the dark.  I would have used yin and yang, but I think that saying is now problematic. 

I don't know why people have such a hard time with the term.  It's not just on this site, even the media narrative is around how this is so abnormal and only a Leaf thing.  If Matthews had signed a three year deal, I would have been okay. The team is getting flexibility here, and in a cap system that is a great thing to have.  Just because no other superstar has done it doesn't mean that somehow the Leafs are in a bad spot by doing it.  I  think this works well for both the team and the player. 

If the Leafs could extend Nylander for a year or two and then come back to the table, that would be great.  Nylander would have to be comfortable with betting on himself, and that he won't have some sort of catastrophic injury, but as the Leafs would be coming out of the Tavares contract, and they would have an idea of what they would be paying Marner, then you would have more options with Nylander. 

I have a hard time seeing Nylander being ok with betting on himself.  Not that 6.9M was him getting taken to the cleaners but he's the guy who is probably most deserving of a pay bump and its hard to see him not wanting term.  He'll also be 28 when he starts his new contract so signing an extension at 30 seems riskier for him to get a 7 or 8 year deal at bigger money.

True, and that would be harder to swallow from Nylander's point of view.  If the team is saying "Hey sign this two year deal 9.5 million and then we'll re-up with you when the cap is higher, and we aren't as strapped" he might have a hard time trusting them.

Nylander at 8 years at 10 million might be okay.  He'll be mid 30's when the deal runs out.  I don't think physically Nylander will degrade all that much.  My concern would more be around his interest to play hockey in those last couple of years. 

I don't know why people have such a hard time with the term.  It's not just on this site, even the media narrative is around how this is so abnormal and only a Leaf thing.  If Matthews had signed a three year deal, I would have been okay. The team is getting flexibility here, and in a cap system that is a great thing to have.  Just because no other superstar has done it doesn't mean that somehow the Leafs are in a bad spot by doing it.  I  think this works well for both the team and the player. 

If the Leafs could extend Nylander for a year or two and then come back to the table, that would be great.  Nylander would have to be comfortable with betting on himself, and that he won't have some sort of catastrophic injury, but as the Leafs would be coming out of the Tavares contract, and they would have an idea of what they would be paying Marner, then you would have more options with Nylander. 

I'm happy this is done.  Seems like a good deal for the Leafs.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/lightning-sign-brandon-hagel-to-eight-year-52m-contract-extension/

is he any good???

He's 24, had 30 goals and 64 points last year in 81 games.  He also had 5 point in 6 playoff games.  I would say the contract is a little high, but that they hope he grows some more.

Hmmm.  This does open up cap space for San Jose to take a run at some free agents next summer.

https://twitter.com/brandon_n_wile/status/1688259973678088192
Development!

I feel there is a caveat here.  Small sample size?  Hmm no that is not it....

I feel that Dubas did a good job here

Nepo-selfie

Fair enough.  For me, as a fan, I would not be happy with Matthews signed at 16 million for 8 years at age 30.  I would be okay with the Leafs walking away at that point and going in a different direction.

I'm fine with giving Matthews whatever he wants. Best player in team history (Sorry, Babe Dye). Let him retire a Leaf. Hopefully a cup is part of this.
 
 

The last three years of that sort of a deal have the potential to be rough.  I do like the comparison of one of the most feared scorers of the 1920's to one of the most feared scorers of the 2020's though. 

In order for that to happen, the cap has to rise to 100 million in 3 years time, which is like 8 million a year.  I think that's a gamble on Matthews part and not the teams.  Yes the pay day is immense if it shakes out that way, because the contract structure you are putting out is about 168 million.  Whereas an 8 year deal at 13.5 followed by 3 years at say 6 million is 134 million.

Sorry, not 8 million a year. 5.33.   

*4 years time* as a Matthews extension won't kick in until after the upcoming season. This upcoming season at his current rate, then 3 more.

 

See my addendum.  I give up. Whatever happens happens.  I wish nothing but the best for Matthews in his contract negotiations.

That might be what Matthews is expecting, but this speaks to Nik's point.  Matthews is absorbing the risk that someone is going to give him that deal and that money.  So he may get a massive pay at age 30, or many teams may decide to back away due to his age, injury history, lack of winning, what have you.  In that respect, shorter term deals to work in the favor of the team. 

If there's one thing to take away from my position on Nylander or the Leafs free agents in general it would be that if your premise starts with "Well, no team in Free Agency will do something that stupid..." then you may want to re-evaluate.

Fair enough.  For me, as a fan, I would not be happy with Matthews signed at 16 million for 8 years at age 30.  I would be okay with the Leafs walking away at that point and going in a different direction.

Which makes the Matthews situation interesting.  You have to think that he has some sort of plan in his head.

3 years x $13.5m followed by 8 years x $16m.

See at 30 I think that is a tough sell, but maybe I am wrong.  Cap is supposed to go up so maybe it isn't all that outrageous.  Still I think most GMs are going to look at that and say that it's a bad deal all around.

I think the $16m a season in a few years time will come in at a similar percent of the cap as $13.5m will be now.

In order for that to happen, the cap has to rise to 100 million in 3 years time, which is like 8 million a year.  I think that's a gamble on Matthews part and not the teams.  Yes the pay day is immense if it shakes out that way, because the contract structure you are putting out is about 168 million.  Whereas an 8 year deal at 13.5 followed by 3 years at say 6 million is 134 million.

Sorry, not 8 million a year. 5.5.   

Ah never mind.  I give up. I forgot the extra year.  Contracts are hard.  No wonder there are so many bad ones.