Hey.  Something newsworthy is finally happening again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/16gdber/translated_narrative_from_rodion_amirovs_father/

Thanks for sharing that, herman.  Dubas picked a remarkable young man, not just a remarkable hockey player.

I have a feeling deep in my gut that Leafs are winning the Cup this season.  You heard it here first.  56 year drought, done.

I kiss your gut!

I don't know why people have such a hard time with the term.  It's not just on this site, even the media narrative is around how this is so abnormal and only a Leaf thing.  If Matthews had signed a three year deal, I would have been okay. The team is getting flexibility here, and in a cap system that is a great thing to have.  Just because no other superstar has done it doesn't mean that somehow the Leafs are in a bad spot by doing it.  I  think this works well for both the team and the player. 

If the Leafs could extend Nylander for a year or two and then come back to the table, that would be great.  Nylander would have to be comfortable with betting on himself, and that he won't have some sort of catastrophic injury, but as the Leafs would be coming out of the Tavares contract, and they would have an idea of what they would be paying Marner, then you would have more options with Nylander. 

I agree with all this on the way the deal itself balances Matthews' and the team's need for flexibility.

The part that I'm stuck on is the AAV -- well, less that than the share of the cap Matthews will consume. If the cap's $90m when the deal kicks in, it'll be 14.7% share of the team's cap. Looking at CapFriendly's historical archive (back to 15-16 season), the highest share of the cap any one player consumed was 13.3% (Malkin in 15-16).

I'm excited to see Matthews shred the Leafs' regular season record book, but I don't see how the team assembles the depth to seriously contend until the cap's at $100m.

They need to quit dealing firsts at the deadline so that they get some cost-effective young talent in the lineup.  And I'm a guy who was all-in on ROR (the others, not so much).

Nik, you are sitting at 29,999 posts.  Make sure the next one is worthy of being set in stone.

Ok.

Stonecarvers charge by the letter.  We all admire your frugality.  That said, if you had signed an 8-year deal here, like we all told you to, you could have splurged on your 30k milestone.  (Or is it "millstone"?)

Hey, remember when people said he'd leave as a free agent for Arizona?

Now that that's officially behind us we can all admit...that was the dumbest thing anyone could have thought, right? Like, no sought after UFA in hockey right now is signing in Arizona unless there's a gun to their head.

If Matthews hangs around after this four years, he'll have a bundle of franchise records.

However, in four years time, depending on their building & ownership, Az might be an attractive destination as an up and coming team. They've stock piled some youth on their roster and a lot of youngsters in their system (RESERVE LIST: 79/90). They have 13 extra picks over the next 3 years.

Also, I hear Houston has a great food scene.

Nik, you are sitting at 29,999 posts.  Make sure the next one is worthy of being set in stone.

We'll have had 34 from 18 through 29.  I am perfectly content to cross whatever bridge comes after that.  Put me down as a very happy camper on this one.

It's a minor point but it's actually 18-30. And, in Matthews' particular case, it's really more like 19-31. The years the Leafs won't have Matthews under contract vs. an 8 year deal are solidly in his 30's.

Unless they sign him to a long deal next time to make him truly a Leaf for life. That will be a much more interesting negotiation (assuming he wants to stay).

I also think though that in 5 years time the Leafs will be in one of two places. Either they'll be disappointed with the Matthews tenure and signing him again will be kind of moot as some sort of tear-down/rebuild will be necessary or they'll be thrilled with his time here in which case overpaying him for his 30's would be something we could probably live with just on sentiment.

Having him for the next 5 years isn't just getting him for his peak, it's also the make or break time for the Matthews era. The sort of downside some people see five years out, where the Leafs are really eager to sign him through his 30's but he has them over a barrel and demands another huge payday...the only way that comes to fruition is with a lot of success over the next five years. And at that point, worrying about his cap hit five years out is like worrying about the property taxes on the mansion you buy after you win the lottery.

Perfect.  I couldn't agree more.

Drain's analysis on MLHS is pretty defensive in tone, aiming at people who think he should have done 7 or 8 because pretty much everyone else in his elite tier has so far.  The term doesn't matter much to me.  As Drain says, and several of you have, the key point is you are getting Matthews through the entirety of his prime.  Somewhere there's an analysis that shows forwards declining at about age 27 or something.  We'll have had 34 from 18 through 29.  I am perfectly content to cross whatever bridge comes after that.  Put me down as a very happy camper on this one.

Me too. I actually recall a graph of the peaks of the top 100 goal scorers in NHL history (this was before Matthews).  These goal scorers peaked astonishingly early. My recollection was the peak was 23-24 for goal scoring.  I think it is quite possible we have already seen Peak Matthews - at least in terms of goals/minute, though not overall effectiveness.  I hope not of course.

Depends on his wrist.

If he's not hampered by that (or something else) from now on, I think he ages pretty well as a scorer.  Maybe to rival Ovechkin.

We'll have had 34 from 18 through 29.  I am perfectly content to cross whatever bridge comes after that.  Put me down as a very happy camper on this one.

It's a minor point but it's actually 18-30. And, in Matthews' particular case, it's really more like 19-31. The years the Leafs won't have Matthews under contract vs. an 8 year deal are solidly in his 30's.

Unless they sign him to a long deal next time to make him truly a Leaf for life. That will be a much more interesting negotiation (assuming he wants to stay).

Drain's analysis on MLHS is pretty defensive in tone, aiming at people who think he should have done 7 or 8 because pretty much everyone else in his elite tier has so far.  The term doesn't matter much to me.  As Drain says, and several of you have, the key point is you are getting Matthews through the entirety of his prime.  Somewhere there's an analysis that shows forwards declining at about age 27 or something.  We'll have had 34 from 18 through 29.  I am perfectly content to cross whatever bridge comes after that.  Put me down as a very happy camper on this one.

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/15tvwsn/full_translated_interview_with_rodion_amirovs/

Dan Milstein gave an interview re: Amirov's battle. Commence full on crying.

Thanks for sharing that, herman.  Everyone stepped up for him.  But it sounds like he had no chance from the moment of diagnosis.  He handled it magnificently.  An impressive man.

And Dubas, again, shows he's got real empathy.  Another impressive man.

I don't know if Kyle writes his own stuff but that's as well done as it can be.

I don't give a shit if you liked him as a GM or not but there's no denying the quality of human he is. That guy cares about people.

He's the best off-ice GM I've ever seen.  It's the reason I was conflicted about him being let go.

I don't know if Kyle writes his own stuff but that's as well done as it can be.

I share some of your frustrations azzurri but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't deserve to be paid in the highest tier when he's won a Hart and a couple of Rockets.  That said, at some point players like him need to ask themselves how important winning a Cup is to them, and whether they can live with a total career earnings of $110 million instead of $120 if they calculate doing a team-friendly will help them get there.  The fact is that any NHL player who is in the league for 10+ years has likely earned enough money to be set for life if they manage it properly (not a given!).

He's the 4th highest paid player in the league. He's already there. Only making roughly 1 million less than Mackinnon. Can sit and debate stats etc but if both were the same age and you had to choose one it would be a no brainer for me. For me anyway.

Not for me.  Mackinnon is great and he's outplayed Matthews in the playoffs so far but Healthy Matthews has more to give.  I'd take him.

I share some of your frustrations azzurri but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't deserve to be paid in the highest tier when he's won a Hart and a couple of Rockets.  That said, at some point players like him need to ask themselves how important winning a Cup is to them, and whether they can live with a total career earnings of $110 million instead of $120 if they calculate doing a team-friendly will help them get there.  The fact is that any NHL player who is in the league for 10+ years has likely earned enough money to be set for life if they manage it properly (not a given!).