Ranking Prospects 2022-2023

[Bender]

Unfortunate, but unsurprising.

Definitely sad, being still so young. At the same time better to make the move now than struggle longer and not really get any further along. I do feel for him.

[herman]

There's a stream for today's scrimmage but I'm region locked for some reason, so just going by the clips on Twitter, it looks like the Leaf prospects have been working on developing rush plays. Lots of nice between-checks area passes for linemates to take advantage of. Soccer/football plays

https://twitter.com/tictactomar/status/1550519445860360192
https://twitter.com/tictactomar/status/1550500981800112131
https://twitter.com/tictactomar/status/1550516933791186950
https://twitter.com/tictactomar/status/1550507483604701185
Tverberg with the slip pass here
https://twitter.com/tictactomar/status/1550500663548846082

[herman]

https://twitter.com/tictactomar/status/1550522646114480129
This was the invitee that caught my eye on paper

[herman]

TLN has kicked off their summer material in earnest with their Top 20 prospects of Calder eligible baby buds.

20. Max Ellis
Undrafted quick winger with good hands, but smol. He is a long shot to make the big club, but there are clearly some tools there to refine. Despite the speed and size comparisons, this is not a Trevor Moore-level prospect yet; Moore was thicc and sturdy and has a faster top gear, while Ellis has better hands. Both have limited offensive creativity so success in the NHL will come down to providing reliable bottom-6 energy and chipping in the odd opportunistic goal off a messy cycle.

[herman]

TLN:
19. William Villeneuve

Apparently his defense stood out among the dev camp players, which pushes him into the potential vaunted status of two-way defenseman with size (drafted in the 2020 4th). Sounds like they're going to put him through the same path Liljegren (and Holl) went through with the Marlies: a steady, increasing diet of defensive deployment*.

"I think the next transition for him, when he comes up with the Marlies next season will be defending and really being able to solidify that part of his game." Wickenheiser said during the final day of Maple Leafs development camp. "We know that he's got offensive upside, he can move the puck. Sometimes the simple play is the best play and I think when you're at the pro level, you have to understand those moments — when to complicate it, when to keep it simple."

He's still a long shot, but you can see the outline sketch of a top-4 RD; it will take time to fill out and refine.


* and maybe some Panic Hockey, as the Marlies are still a Greg Moore team at this time

---

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1551341469042184192

what stood out about Villeneuve was how far his game had come in the last year. In both scrimmages, Toronto's fourth-round pick (122nd overall) in the 2020 NHL Draft showed patience in his breakout ability. He was composed with the puck and clean on his zone exits.

When mistakes happened, Villeneuve appeared undeterred and recovered quickly.

"We worked a lot with him on his posture and really his mental side of the game, in terms of not getting down on himself and staying consistent," Maple Leafs assistant GM Hayley Wickenheiser said of the 20-year-old.

[herman]

https://twitter.com/_NickRichard/status/1551738218504126466
This was pretty fun to watch

[herman]

TLN:
18. Veeti Miettinen

Similar template of player to Dmitry Ovchinnikov, Roni Hirvonen, and to basically the archetype in the Leafs system, Nick Robertson: small, got some puck skills, and scoring pop from the danger zone. Veeti is dangerous with the puck; he'll need to work on becoming more of a factor without the puck and not relying solely on teammates to feed him the puck.

[Heroic Shrimp]

Article on Hildeby by David Alter:

https://www.si.com/nhl/maple-leafs/prospects/dennis-hildeby-among-goalie-prospects-the-maple-leafs-hope-will-blossom

[Nik]

So I guess their top prospect would be Knies or one of the Finns? Woof.

[herman]

So I guess their top prospect would be Knies or one of the Finns? Woof.

If we're counting only the non NHL youngsters, it'll be a smear of:
Robertson, Knies, Amirov*, Niemela, Minten (higher floor) or Voit/Hirvonen (higher offensive ceiling) in whatever order.

[Nik]

So I guess their top prospect would be Knies or one of the Finns? Woof.

If we're counting only the non NHL youngsters, it'll be a smear of:
Robertson, Knies, Amirov*, Niemela, Minten (higher floor) or Voit/Hirvonen (higher offensive ceiling) in whatever order.

Woof again. That is not a great list.

[L K]

So I guess their top prospect would be Knies or one of the Finns? Woof.

If we're counting only the non NHL youngsters, it'll be a smear of:
Robertson, Knies, Amirov*, Niemela, Minten (higher floor) or Voit/Hirvonen (higher offensive ceiling) in whatever order.

Woof again. That is not a great list.

It's going to be the downfall of this iteration of the franchise. 

2015 - Hunter/Dubas draft - get Marner and Dermott. 
2016-2017 - Lou - get Matthews, Grundstrom, Liljegren, Brooks
2018 - End of Lou/Dubas - Sandin/Durzi
2019-now - Dubas - Robertson/Abruzzese 2G1A in 25 GP

I like some of our European prospects.  I really like Niemela.  I really like Knies but I really don't think our prospect depth is all that great. The 2019 draft might change that once some of these guys come to North America/turn pro but so many of our prospects are multiple steps away from being NHL contributors and its why our roster is a cluster of stop gaps.

We don't have a prospect ready to replace Bunting next year when we can't afford him.  We don't have a prospect to replace Kerfoot who we need to trade to make room for Sandin.  Far too many holes continue to have to be filled by trading/not-resigning players and not getting returns back for guys we lose.

One first round pick in the last 4 drafts for a team that hasn't won a playoff series is a horrible look.  Our big prospect addition to this years lineup will be Nick Robertson who has played 65 games in the last two years because he can't stay healthy.  When his size is his biggest detraction that is concerning.  I don't really have the faith that his game transitions well to the NHL.

[herman]

You could also count the cheapo UFAs that were pulled from outside the draft and signed to ELCs or whatever and contributed NHL minutes. The draft isn't the only source of prospects for a deadline buyer.

[Bender]

So I guess their top prospect would be Knies or one of the Finns? Woof.

If we're counting only the non NHL youngsters, it'll be a smear of:
Robertson, Knies, Amirov*, Niemela, Minten (higher floor) or Voit/Hirvonen (higher offensive ceiling) in whatever order.

Woof again. That is not a great list.

It's going to be the downfall of this iteration of the franchise. 

2015 - Hunter/Dubas draft - get Marner and Dermott. 
2016-2017 - Lou - get Matthews, Grundstrom, Liljegren, Brooks
2018 - End of Lou/Dubas - Sandin/Durzi
2019-now - Dubas - Robertson/Abruzzese 2G1A in 25 GP

I like some of our European prospects.  I really like Niemela.  I really like Knies but I really don't think our prospect depth is all that great. The 2019 draft might change that once some of these guys come to North America/turn pro but so many of our prospects are multiple steps away from being NHL contributors and its why our roster is a cluster of stop gaps.

We don't have a prospect ready to replace Bunting next year when we can't afford him.  We don't have a prospect to replace Kerfoot who we need to trade to make room for Sandin.  Far too many holes continue to have to be filled by trading/not-resigning players and not getting returns back for guys we lose.

One first round pick in the last 4 drafts for a team that hasn't won a playoff series is a horrible look.  Our big prospect addition to this years lineup will be Nick Robertson who has played 65 games in the last two years because he can't stay healthy.  When his size is his biggest detraction that is concerning.  I don't really have the faith that his game transitions well to the NHL.

I 100% agree with this. They let too many pending UFAs walk, and did a terrible job at restocking the cupboard with cheap, cost controlled talent to fill in and I understand they want to go all in every year, which makes this difficult, but they really telegraphed their punch by being way too optimistic about the team in 16-17 and have let a lot of their decisions be anchored from there. They've also not made a ballsy move a la Brendan Hagel besides the Naz deal which was a question mark at the time considering we gave up the best player in the deal.

[Nik]

It's going to be the downfall of this iteration of the franchise. 

2015 - Hunter/Dubas draft - get Marner and Dermott. 
2016-2017 - Lou - get Matthews, Grundstrom, Liljegren, Brooks
2018 - End of Lou/Dubas - Sandin/Durzi
2019-now - Dubas - Robertson/Abruzzese 2G1A in 25 GP

I like some of our European prospects.  I really like Niemela.  I really like Knies but I really don't think our prospect depth is all that great. The 2019 draft might change that once some of these guys come to North America/turn pro but so many of our prospects are multiple steps away from being NHL contributors and its why our roster is a cluster of stop gaps.

We don't have a prospect ready to replace Bunting next year when we can't afford him.  We don't have a prospect to replace Kerfoot who we need to trade to make room for Sandin.  Far too many holes continue to have to be filled by trading/not-resigning players and not getting returns back for guys we lose.

One first round pick in the last 4 drafts for a team that hasn't won a playoff series is a horrible look.  Our big prospect addition to this years lineup will be Nick Robertson who has played 65 games in the last two years because he can't stay healthy.  When his size is his biggest detraction that is concerning.  I don't really have the faith that his game transitions well to the NHL.

In large part, I think this is at least part of my semi-tongue in cheek "Just start drafting relatively decent sized CHL scorers" policy. Not because I necessarily think they're better prospects but I do generally think they have a shorter path to contributing at the NHL level and you get a quicker sense of what they are.

I mean, I do think it's at least semi-noteworthy that in the drafts you're talking about(and you include 2014) the Leafs used a grand total of 0 Non-Top 10 firsts, seconds or thirds on those kinds of players. And the last 5 times they did use a 2nd or 3rd on a 5'11 or greater CHL forward with decent scoring numbers the only guy that didn't manage to at least show up and contribute a bit in the NHL was Brad Ross(who, I think it's safe to say given who was in charge, was drafted at least in part for 'toughness').

In fact, since 2000 the Leafs, I'd say, have used a pick like that about 10 times. Excluding Minten, six of them have at least turned into NHL players(Verhaege, Gauthier, Leivo, McKegg, Stajan, Boyes) vs. three guys who never made it (Ross, Corbeil, Vernarsky). Considering just the overall odds of where they were picking guys...that's pretty good. It's certainly a lot better than their record when using those picks anywhere else.

I mean, obviously the lack of Amirov hurts here(and get well soon Rodion!) but even if he was just sidelined with a more conventional injury, would we have any real idea how he was progressing as a prospect getting 4th line minutes in the KHL? Or realistically know how close he was to contributing to the Leafs?

I'm not so much advocating for narrowing the field of prospects they look at but I do feel like the Leafs draft strategy, with the Lamoriello years and continued with Dubas, has been like a team that really wasn't acting like they knew the situation they were in. If you're going grocery shopping with a limited budget, sometimes you've got to go with the staples, not shop around hoping someone's put the Foie Gras and Caviar on clearance. To me, that's the "Let's take a Russian we won't really know about for 4 years" or "Maybe this 5'7 guy is the next Johnny Gaudreau" picks are.