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Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

Started by CarltonTheBear, May 16, 2022, 11:37:25 AM

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CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Frank E on June 13, 2022, 05:28:19 PM
I don't know guys...is there a GM that's looking to give the Leafs a break and help them out of a cap crunch without getting something pretty sweet to mitigate the risk of having to buy the guy out and look like a patsy?

The guy was a mess this year when he wasn't merciful-timingly injured.

Remember too, I'm rarely wrong. 

Nick Ritchie.

Joe

Can someone properly explain the LTIR cap space move? Because if I think I understand it the way I think I do why wouldn't the leafs not want to pick up someone like Weber to get the net cap benefit of the LTIR reserve money for a few years?

bustaheims

Quote from: Iafrate on June 13, 2022, 06:20:37 PM
Can someone properly explain the LTIR cap space move? Because if I think I understand it the way I think I do why wouldn't the leafs not want to pick up someone like Weber to get the net cap benefit of the LTIR reserve money for a few years?

There's no real benefit to the Leafs to do that unless they get an asset in return for covering the actual salary. There is no net cap benefit. It's a zero sum move. It's only helpful in very specific circumstances that the team isn't likely to find themselves in, and it's potentially a hindrance at the trade deadline and if the Leafs have contracts with performance bonuses.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

herman

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 13, 2022, 05:38:43 PM
Quote from: Frank E on June 13, 2022, 05:28:19 PM
I don't know guys...is there a GM that's looking to give the Leafs a break and help them out of a cap crunch without getting something pretty sweet to mitigate the risk of having to buy the guy out and look like a patsy?

The guy was a mess this year when he wasn't merciful-timingly injured.

Remember too, I'm rarely wrong. 

Nick Ritchie.

Vancouver bailed out Vegas for like nothing because they actually wanted the player (Schmidt). There is a market for Mrazek.
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed

OldTimeHockey

Quote from: bustaheims on June 13, 2022, 03:59:01 PM
22/23: $1,033,333
23/24: $833,333
24/25: $1,433,333
25/26: $1,433,333

With that low of a buyout rate, and if no one is biting, why not just buy him out? I get that it costs 1 to 1.5 million a year, but that extra 2.5 - 3 million a year would certainly help in securing a goalie that could help the team.

Guilt Trip

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 14, 2022, 06:47:08 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 13, 2022, 03:59:01 PM
22/23: $1,033,333
23/24: $833,333
24/25: $1,433,333
25/26: $1,433,333

With that low of a buyout rate, and if no one is biting, why not just buy him out? I get that it costs 1 to 1.5 million a year, but that extra 2.5 - 3 million a year would certainly help in securing a goalie that could help the team.
In 24/25 both Matthews and Willy will need new contracts. I don't think having 1.4M in dead space would be desirable.

bustaheims

#111
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 14, 2022, 06:47:08 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 13, 2022, 03:59:01 PM
22/23: $1,033,333
23/24: $833,333
24/25: $1,433,333
25/26: $1,433,333

With that low of a buyout rate, and if no one is biting, why not just buy him out? I get that it costs 1 to 1.5 million a year, but that extra 2.5 - 3 million a year would certainly help in securing a goalie that could help the team.

That's my thinking - and, I imagine, is part of the thought process for the front office, as well. The years 3 and 4 hits are potentially an issue, depending on what happens with the cap and all (which, hopefully, will start to see real increases again in the next couple years).
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

lamajama

Quote from: bustaheims on June 14, 2022, 10:35:15 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 14, 2022, 06:47:08 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 13, 2022, 03:59:01 PM
22/23: $1,033,333
23/24: $833,333
24/25: $1,433,333
25/26: $1,433,333

With that low of a buyout rate, and if no one is biting, why not just buy him out? I get that it costs 1 to 1.5 million a year, but that extra 2.5 - 3 million a year would certainly help in securing a goalie that could help the team.

That's my thinking - and, I imagine, is part of the thought process for the front office, as well. The years 3 and 4 hits are potentially an issue, depending on what happens with the cap and all (which, hopefully, will start to see real increases again in the next couple years).

I think that's what we have to pray for as 34's next deal is going to be monstrous. Mitch as well.
I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.

Joe

Quote from: bustaheims on June 13, 2022, 06:28:50 PM
Quote from: Iafrate on June 13, 2022, 06:20:37 PM
Can someone properly explain the LTIR cap space move? Because if I think I understand it the way I think I do why wouldn't the leafs not want to pick up someone like Weber to get the net cap benefit of the LTIR reserve money for a few years?

There's no real benefit to the Leafs to do that unless they get an asset in return for covering the actual salary. There is no net cap benefit. It's a zero sum move. It's only helpful in very specific circumstances that the team isn't likely to find themselves in, and it's potentially a hindrance at the trade deadline and if the Leafs have contracts with performance bonuses.

Maybe I don't get how it works. But I thought if you have a player on LTIR allows you to exceed the cap by the difference of the salary and the cap space available.

So if the player has a 5mil cap hit and you have 1 mil of cap space you can exceed the cap by 4 mil.

So why wouldn't this be beneficial? Or am I completely wrong in how this works?

Bill_Berg_is_sad

Quote from: Iafrate on June 14, 2022, 11:48:11 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 13, 2022, 06:28:50 PM
Quote from: Iafrate on June 13, 2022, 06:20:37 PM
Can someone properly explain the LTIR cap space move? Because if I think I understand it the way I think I do why wouldn't the leafs not want to pick up someone like Weber to get the net cap benefit of the LTIR reserve money for a few years?

There's no real benefit to the Leafs to do that unless they get an asset in return for covering the actual salary. There is no net cap benefit. It's a zero sum move. It's only helpful in very specific circumstances that the team isn't likely to find themselves in, and it's potentially a hindrance at the trade deadline and if the Leafs have contracts with performance bonuses.

Maybe I don't get how it works. But I thought if you have a player on LTIR allows you to exceed the cap by the difference of the salary and the cap space available.

So if the player has a 5mil cap hit and you have 1 mil of cap space you can exceed the cap by 4 mil.

So why wouldn't this be beneficial? Or am I completely wrong in how this works?

So cap used is 9 mill, cap is 10 mill, I add 5 mill of LITR, I now have used 14 and have a cap of 15. Both scenarios give me 1 mill cap space. But once LITR is invoked, I can't use that 1 mill of cap space for performance bonuses, they instead carry over to get used in next year's cap space.

CarltonTheBear

#115
Quote from: Iafrate on June 14, 2022, 11:48:11 AM
Maybe I don't get how it works. But I thought if you have a player on LTIR allows you to exceed the cap by the difference of the salary and the cap space available.

So if the player has a 5mil cap hit and you have 1 mil of cap space you can exceed the cap by 4 mil.

So why wouldn't this be beneficial? Or am I completely wrong in how this works?

In this scenario the team would have $4mil in cap space. But not acquiring the player/contract at all would mean they have $6mil in cap space.

The player/contract you're acquiring still counts against the cap. So we have a cap ceiling of $82.5mil next season. If we acquired a $5mil LTIR contract and we were right up against the cap before getting him then it'd mean our cap ceiling could be exceed to as much as $87.5mil... but that $5mil contract still counts against that so really we'd have $82.5mil in "useable" cap space.

It is a very common misconception (even among apparently smart media folk) that you can just add as many LTIR contracts as you want and that just keeps increasing your cap. But those guys don't just disappear off your books. The Leafs could acquire $50mil worth of LTIR contracts and their cap ceiling could be $132.5mil... but $50mil of that is still sitting on the injured/pseudo retired list.

Bill_Berg_is_sad

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 14, 2022, 11:57:56 AM
Quote from: Iafrate on June 14, 2022, 11:48:11 AM
Maybe I don't get how it works. But I thought if you have a player on LTIR allows you to exceed the cap by the difference of the salary and the cap space available.

So if the player has a 5mil cap hit and you have 1 mil of cap space you can exceed the cap by 4 mil.

So why wouldn't this be beneficial? Or am I completely wrong in how this works?

In this scenario the team would have $4mil in cap space. But not acquiring the player/contract at all would mean they have $6mil in cap space.

If the 1 mil in cap space is calculated after you've acquired the 5 mil LITR. Just commenting as my scenario was based on the 1 mil cap space being calculated before acquiring the 5 mil LITR.

bustaheims

Quote from: Iafrate on June 14, 2022, 11:48:11 AM
Maybe I don't get how it works. But I thought if you have a player on LTIR allows you to exceed the cap by the difference of the salary and the cap space available.

So if the player has a 5mil cap hit and you have 1 mil of cap space you can exceed the cap by 4 mil.

So why wouldn't this be beneficial? Or am I completely wrong in how this works?

As others have pointed out, it's not how it works - and, if it were, why would teams trade away that advantage? Why would they have to include assets to shed those contracts? It really boggles my mind how many media types, bloggers, etc., still get this wrong.

There are also some other wrinkles to LTIR that make it a disadvantage. For instance, LTIR space can't be used to absorb a pro-rated amount of a player's cap hit - you have to be able to fit the full season AAV regardless of what point in the season you acquire them. It also can't be used to account for performance bonuses, as it disappears when the season ends while performance bonuses aren't charged against the cap until after the season.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

herman

Quote from: lamajama on June 14, 2022, 10:58:36 AM
I think that's what we have to pray for as 34's next deal is going to be monstrous. Mitch as well.

There is only the one year of overlap with new-Matthews/Nylander deals ($$$$/$$) and the final year of Tavares/Marner (22M) in 2024/25. I imagine Tavares will finish off that contract and transition to Spezza-ish deals.

Matthews should get paid whatever he wants, but if he wants the Cup he has to know he's gotta leave something on the table so he has more than just Mitch Marner to play with.

Nylander is probably going to cause yet another media firestorm through no direct action of his; we could point to the Chris Kreider contract (6.5M x 7 as a 28 year old) as an anchoring point (did you hit 50G yet?). I think he's an easy 8M x 8 to close out his prime earning window as he is a very durable and consistent pseudo-primary scoring threat.

I think it'll look a bit like
Matthews 14.34
Marner 12.16
Nylander 8
Rielly 7.5

42M and these guys are buying dinner every night.
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed

L K

Others have already said so I just want to be a parrot.

You don't gain cap space when a player goes on LTIR, you just increase the total cap dollar.

So if the Leafs were 100% to the cap (82.5M) and John Tavares when on LTIR (11M) the Leafs would have 11M in salary cap space to replace him.  They get that 11M because Tavares 11M cap hit can be filled in while he remains on LTIR.  If the Leafs added 8M in players through callup/trades they would then have 90.5M in cap utilization against a total cap potential of 92.5M  But that cap space is only as valid as the player remains on LTIR.  Because the Leafs cap number is still over 82.5M any bonus overage immediately rolls over into next year so over 35 players and rookie contracts could hurt your cap next year.

If Tavares comes back off LTIR before the end of the season the Leafs potential cap maximum goes to 82.5M and they would have to unload the 8M in cap overage.

Where the LTIR really helps you is in the Kucherov scenario where the player doesn't come off LTIR until after the end of the season when the cap no longer matters.  You have to be cap compliant before the start of the year so you can't take advantage of LTIR in the offseason unless you have handshake agreements to sign contracts the day after the calendar season goes into effect.