Quick links:  Login  |  Sign up  |  Site Rules  |  Support TMLfans

Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - CarltonTheBear

#1
Quote from: herman on Today at 02:08:42 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on Today at 01:18:12 PM
Quote from: herman on Today at 12:55:44 PMI think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season.

Ah yes I remember pointing out how crazy that was lol.

Now how can we trade Marner for Johnston+?

Probably something that involves a time machine.
#2
Was rooting for a Rangers-Stars final after round 2. So far so good.
#3
Quote from: herman on Today at 12:55:44 PMI think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season.

Ah yes I remember pointing out how crazy that was lol.
#4
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on Today at 12:34:31 PMTo me, it boils down to: it's hard as hell to get elite talent.  You do everything you can to keep it because you almost surely aren't going to instantly replace. If you accept that, #1 on the list of things you can do is change the coaching if things aren't working.  The Leafs pulled the trigger on that.  I think it's crazy not to give Berube a chance to see if he can get a Marner-inclusive team to perform better in the playoffs — everyone, not just Marner.

I think this is definitely true but it's a little more complicated when you already have 2 other elite talents, at least one of whom is definitely elite-ier. In a cap world surely there just has to be a point where too much (expensive) elite talent can actually be a hinderance. I'm all for letting Berube get a shot with this group to try and preserve Dubas' "we can and we will" mantra and even if next season doesn't result in a Cup I'm really hoping we see a legitimate breakthrough with him, but if it doesn't some very hard questions need to be asked.
#5
Quote from: Bender on Today at 11:35:55 AMI don't see how letting him walk for nothing wouldn't be somewhat catastrophic from an asset management standpoint.

Sometimes letting a star player walk for nothing (which is actually oodles and oodles of cap space) is just the right play. Treliving actually personally knows that all too well. You can bet the Flames are thankful every day that Johnny Gaudreau walked instead of taking their 8-year, $10.5mil AAV contract offer. And at the same time they probably wished they let Huberdeau walk instead of signing him to that same deal instead.

Letting Marner walk would be my least favourable option. But there are circumstances where the Leafs need to be ready to just let that happen. If they don't trade him now and he has a similar year with Berube with all the normal ups and downs and both him individually and the Leafs face playoff failures for all the same reasons they have in this era and Marner says he won't sign long-term for a penny less than $12.5mil AAV I'm not convinced you put ink to that deal just because you're afraid of letting him walk.

You don't get immediate assets from letting him walk but the cap space you get from him leaving, Tavares leaving or signing a drastically lower deal, and a likely large increase in the ceiling would give Treliving the opportunity to make the kinds of drastic changes to the roster a team potentially facing 9 straight playoff failures would need. A good GM, which we better hope Treliving is regardless, should be able to do insane things with this group even without Marner and likely over $25mil in cap space.
#6
Quote from: cw on Today at 11:06:24 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on Today at 10:39:34 AMI'm a little numb to whatever happens with Marner at this point tbh. The options are basically:

1) Trade him now for a somewhat similarly high-end player in the league

I suppose never say never but I'm pessimistic that is a likely option with his NMC limiting destinations, his cap hit and the team walking away from him in an ugly media storm.

He could help a financially struggling team to save money to get to the cap floor but why would he want to go there? Hard to win anything there.

It probably wouldn't be a one for one elite star yeah, but yeah something close-ish. If option 2 is 4 quarters for a dollar then option 1 would likely better be described as a 75 cent coin and quarter for a dollar.
#7
Quote from: cw on Today at 10:47:52 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on Today at 09:36:44 AMJay Woodcroft in particular is someone who really jumps out that I'm surprised didn't get hired anywhere this offseason.

.267 win% with Woodcroft
.717 win% without Woodcroft
The night and day difference in the Oilers after his departure probably had something to do with it.


w Woodcroft:
.864 overall team Sv%
McDavid 2 goals and 10 points in 11 games

w/o Woodcroft:
.904 overall team Sv%
McDavid 30 goals and 122 points in 65 games

That's why Edmonton's season turned around. I'm pretty skeptical any coach has the power to directly impact either of those things to such a massive degree. At the end of the day Woodcroft maybe had to fall on the sword but he deserves another chance somewhere.
#8
I'm a little numb to whatever happens with Marner at this point tbh. The options are basically:

1) Trade him now for a somewhat similarly high-end player in the league
2) Trade him now in more of a 4 quarters for a dollar type trade to boost the teams depth, futures, and cap space
3) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and re-sign him to as fair a contract as possible depending on how well he performs
4) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and let him walk either due to his performance (or lack of) or simply because the two sides can't come to reasonable terms

I don't think any of them would be catastrophically bad for the Leafs. They all have their pro's and con's, some surely a little more or less than others, but a good team/organization/GM should still be able to make the most out of any of them.
#9
Scott Arniel gets the Winnipeg HC job, while Dan Bylsma finally resurfaces in Seattle. There's only one head coach position left to be filled and that's the rather undesirable San Jose job and it's sounding like Marco Sturm or Ryan Warsofsky are getting that.

Wonder if part of the hold up on the assistants here is the Leafs are waiting to see if anyone who is left without a seat would be interested. Jay Woodcroft in particular is someone who really jumps out that I'm surprised didn't get hired anywhere this offseason. Or possibly the Leafs circle back on Todd McLellan. He ran Detroit's PP while he was an assistant there back in the day.
#10
Chicago must REALLY like the guy they think is going to be available at 18 but not at 20.
#11
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1793988552071745918

Some interesting contract projections here:

Brandon Montour: 6 x $7.7M -> could you get a southern Ontario boy to match Rielly's $7.5mi by adding an extra year? Ultimately I see a team or two offering above $8mil though which could be too rich.

Elias Lindholm: 5 x $6.75M -> Lindhom's cost himself a lot of money with a rough season, but he did rebound nicely in the playoffs. Again, I see him getting above this pretty easily but he'd be a great fit at 2C at the right price

Matt Roy: 5 x $5.8M
Brett Pesce: 5 x $6.25M
Dylan DeMelo: 4 x $5.3M -> Three top-4 RHD, all at reasonable-ish projections (DeMelo feels a tad high). None really provide the snot/size that Treliving and Berube might be interested in right now but all 3 could be very good partners for Rielly on the top pairing. It's actually a pretty good year for UFA defencemen

Nikita Zadorov: 5 x $5.3M
Chris Tanev: 3 x $4.7M - > Treliving's favourite sons may have both priced themselves out of the Leafs range with their playoff performances, especially Zadorov. I'd do Tanev at that price but think he gets pushed well over $5mil too

Viktor Arvidsson: 3 x $4.75M -> Arvidsson coming off an injury plagued season but I could really see the Leafs being interested in him. Especially if there happens to be an opening in the top-6 at RW one way or another. Undersized but a speedy goal scorer who plays that north-south game and is good on the forecheck. I could see him doing a Bertuzzi-like one year show me deal considering his injury has likely really hurt his value right now.

Chandler Stephenson: 5 x $5.6M
Sean Monahan: 4 x $5.3M
Alex Wennberg: 4 x $3.85M
Adam Henrique: 3 x $4.3M -> The other notable centres. Not the sexiest of names, but 4 reliable players. Personally I would love to finally get a C with some high end speed as I think that's something we've lacked down the middle. Stephenson appears to be the speediest of the bunch here so he becomes my default pick really.

Leafs UFAs:
Tyler Bertuzzi: 4 x $5.25M -> I liked Bertuzzi, but as I explained elsewhere LW just doesn't feel like where we need to spend money long-term right now
Max Domi: 2 x $3.5M -> At a contract like that it'd be a bit of a no-brainer to bring him back
Ilya Samsonov: 1 x $2.35M -> So long Sammy
T.J. Brodie: 2 x $3.65M -> So long Brodie
Joel Edmundson: 2 x $1.65M -> Edmundson seemed fine in the playoffs, and he has an obvious connection with Berube. That would be a fine enough contract as well. I just wonder about the fit. We've got Benoit already signed. They're both best suited for the 3LD spot so I just don't know if it makes sense to bring him back


#12
Quote from: cw on May 23, 2024, 11:41:17 AMDoesn't that smell of tampering?
Seems kind of odd to me.

Ultimately Savard was under contract with the Flames and if they really wanted to keep him there they could have. Their head coach was a rookie last year though and so I do wonder if maybe they regretted not having someone on his staff with a little more experience. Savard had only had 1 year as an assistant coach prior to this season. Their other assistants were relatively green as well. This could give them a chance to rectify that possible misstep, so a mutual parting of ways could genuinely be a good thing here for everyone.
#13
Quote from: bustaheims on May 23, 2024, 07:33:03 AM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 22, 2024, 10:38:46 PMCalgary's PP was ranked 25th this season and 18th overall in offence woth Savard

That's true, but I wonder how much of that is coaching and how much is personnel.

Their top-5 most used PP players were Kadri, Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Andersson, and Lindholm. Not exactly a murderer's row, especially from a shot-threat perspective.

To their credit once they got Kuzmenko, someone who CAN shoot, things took off. Their PP was 12th in the league, operating at 24% from the time they acquired him (February 2nd). The Leafs over that same period (around last 30-ish games) had a 23% success rate. And the PP kept getting better, while Toronto's got worse. From February 18th to the end of the season it was the 6th best PP in the league. From March 10th to the end of the season, 19 games played for Calgary, their PP was the best in the league operating at 29.6%. Toronto in that same period (18 GP for the Leafs) had just a 13.8% PP, 27th in the league.

Couple that with the success Savard had with St. Louis' PP and there are definitely positive signs.
#14
Keefe vs. Dubas in the Metro now, that'll be an interesting story line.
#15
https://twitter.com/KevinWeekes/status/1793279253804359709

Somewhat relevant to the Leafs as multiple reports suggested that D.J. Smith (who joined Hiller as an assistant coach midseason) could join Berube's staff if Hiller wasn't kept on as LA's head coach.