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Messages - CarltonTheBear

How much money did Gustav Forsling cost himself by signing his extension with Florida in March as opposed to now? $5.75mil x 8 years was generally seen as a steal even then but he'd certainly get at least $10mil total more even with the Panthers-discount if he had waited.
Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMI like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay).

The Daily Faceoff posted his projection at $5.5mil x 4 years, while the Athletic/Evolving Hockey put him at $6.1mil x 5 years. So I think $6mil x 6 years would certainly be on the high end of his offers considering he does have pretty limited offensive abilities. Especially as far as offers from serious/contending teams go (i.e. teams that aren't like San Jose or Chicago or Utah who are just looking to burn money).

Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMAnother option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

Yeah I've mentioned Arvidsson before as well. He could certainly fit that role too and honestly I'd probably prefer him over Perron since he's younger and faster. But Perron just makes a lot more sense due to the Berube connection. I think for either of them if you're going with a base salary of $1mil to make things work cap wise you need at least another $1-1.5mil in very easy to achieve bonuses (like 10GP) since other teams would likely offer that as guaranteed money. After that another $1mil or so in higher offensive targets like 15 goals or 40 points is what I'd be thinking.

Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMI wonder if Vegas would Nate-Schmidt us Karlsson...

Yeah I really don't know what I would expect from a Karlsson trade. Guys like Schmidt and Fleury were of course basically given away for free in order to clear salary for Vegas. I don't expect that to happen with Karlsson though but hey who knows.
Enjoying Capfriendly's Armchair GM feature while I still can. This one was all about "can we afford to acquire William Karlsson from Vegas AND still address the D+G?". Honestly I thought the answer to this would be no and was pleasantly surprised:

Starting out by having to clear salary. That's Kampf and Jarnkrok. Kampf to me is generally a goner in any offseason projection. Jarnkrok is less of a necessity to move and this would all technically still be possible with him but it would make the max roster size 21 instead of 22 so I'll take the extra flexibility largely because his roster spot is also going to be replaced by a cheaper veteran who might fit the vibes of the 24/25 team better. These are cap dumps. Kampf I could see going to NJ to be reunited with Keefe as they look to be in need of a 4C. Jarnkrok could fit on a lot of teams. If we get some sort of pick or young minor leaguer back for them great, if not I'll accept just the cap space.

Next up of course is acquiring William Karlsson. He's 31-years old, has a $5.9mil cap hit for the next 3 seasons. Ticks a lot of boxes as something we need (two-way centre, can win face-offs, kill penalties, fast, Swedish). Vegas has Eichel and Hertl occupying their top-2 centre spots though and with other needs Karlsson at $5.9mil is just a luxury they can't afford right now. This is a stereotypical fan trade offer but I would assume Liljegren and possibly Robertson as well would be parts of this trade. Lily in particular I could see fitting well with Vegas as they actually have a bit of a need at RHD at the moment. Other pieces would be required as well for sure but I doubt anything major (by that I mean Cowan, Minten, or maybe even another 1st as that's basically what Lily represents but if push came to shove and a 1st was needed I'd probably still pull the trigger) since we are talking about a non-elite forward on the wrong side of 30 who Vegas is looking to move for cap space. So that's that.

Next up some signings. I think Karlsson would keep us out of the hunt for Montour or Skjei, which is actually fine because I think I've actually landed on Roy and one of Tanev or Zadorov being my preferred D targets on July 1st. I give Roy $6mil for 6 years, and Tanev $4.5mil for 3 years. Maybe even add a 4th year to Tanev if that's necessary, somewhat decent chance he'd be a LTIR candidate at that point anyway. Stolarz is my go to goalie option now and he's at $3.25mil here. Dewar is the lone RFA re-signed at $950k.

Things are tight for cap space right now but we still need an additional forward. I think getting creative with David Perron on a 35+ performance bonus deal is the best way to squeeze a quality middle-6 winger onto the team, even if it comes at a price in 25/26 with the carryover bonus. I have Perron signing for just $1mil, with two sets of bonuses (one easy to achieve and another that's a little more challenging) that would bring his total hit to about $3-3.5mil if hit.

That leaves us with a roster that looks like this:




With that there would still be $1.7mil left over, enough for 2 additional roster players who would hopefully both be eligible to go up and down with the Marlies in order to bank cap space throughout the season for a possible deadline add somewhere. I would be perfectly fine with bringing Klingberg back either on a bury-able contract or possibly even PTO in order to compete with Timmins for the final D spot at training camp.
Playing 3rd pairing sheltered minutes on the Carolina Hurricanes alongside a top pairing caliber defenceman seems like a pretty plum gig. I think Chatfield's been getting a tad overhyped in some places.
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 12:45:45 PMhttps://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1801304022059544833

Crazy to think he was hired by the team way back in 2018. Smart guy, but even before Treliving was hired it felt like his role in hockey ops was starting to get reduced so this isn't all that surprising or noteworthy even.
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 10:49:32 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 13, 2024, 09:49:27 AMJumping on the Pageau train with me?

Is there a younger version? I was really hoping Jarnkrok had some actual chops there, but sadly no.

No, although I will say I expected Pageau to be a little older than he actually is (turns 32 this November). That's up there, but not exactly ancient. edit: to hammer this point in he's actually younger than Jarnkrok.

If you want an even crazier idea, Montreal might be looking to unload Mitch's old centre from his London Knights days...
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 08:56:18 AMIf we were to spend actual money on a forward, I'd like it to be a RH Centre with speed and PK experience.

Jumping on the Pageau train with me?
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 08:37:27 AMI honestly can't tell if he's doing a bit, or if it's actual reporting.

Oh, it's that guy.
Before he was hired by the sens I wondered about the Leafs bringing Staios back into the organization in some capacity. Uhhh, it's maybe a good thing that didn't happen.
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2024 Draft Discussion
June 12, 2024, 09:31:39 AM
I was somewhat-kinda-sorta joking about it at first but I think I've talked myself more and more into wanting London's Sam O'Reilly. Somewhat different styles of play between him and Cowan but a lot of similarities as far as their trajectories it seems.
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2024 Draft Discussion
June 12, 2024, 09:11:37 AM
Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 07:53:48 AMThis one is very intriguing to me, especially for the ranking disparity.

Might not be my top pick but does sound pretty promising.

I will say I'm not sure if this is just a particularly deep 1st round or writers are just getting better at highlighting the positives of prospects but there's been a very high number of prospects that should be available at 23 that sound very promising.
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Reilly To The Wing
June 12, 2024, 08:49:11 AM
Even leaving aside how the odds of this happening are zero percent, we need to be adding higher end defencemen to the team not taking them away.
Quote from: cw on June 11, 2024, 12:25:45 PMSo CapFriendly was getting their info from the NHLPA? Agents?

Looks like a business opportunity for someone ...

Honestly 90% of the data on CF's site just came from media members posting the contract details on twitter. CF just did a really good job putting it all in one central place.

They did certainly start to make their own connections to sources as time went on though.
Quote from: herman on June 11, 2024, 12:43:02 PMIf it turns out they accidentally slipped in an absolute value function and removed the directionality of their analyses...

They probably accidentally calculated it from NYI's side.
Quote from: Bill_Berg on June 10, 2024, 02:33:59 PM
Quote from: L K on June 10, 2024, 02:22:23 PM
Quote from: Bill_Berg on June 10, 2024, 01:53:23 PMMirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

I'm stealing content from looking at a Reddit feed but his twitter feed is ummm....a bit of a culture shift for the Leafs to go into that kind of belief system.  It's very Alex Jones/Andrew Tate forward.

I can't find what you may be referring to. His Twitter feed seems to be fine. Not many posts but still shows him as a Golden Knight. I don't see any conspiracy stuff at all.

Just checked, his list of followers is what LK would be referring to. I've learned to generally just accept that lots if not most hockey players will have opinions out there that I strongly disagree with. Like Bertuzzi's "life choice" over choosing not to get a certain something doesn't change how I felt about him as a hockey player ultimately, same goes for players following certain politicians or influencers really now. Openly being an infowars guy is probably where I'd draw the line though. Go Stolarz, I guess.