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Messages - princedpw

#1
I think Stamkos will cost Toronto 20% more to sign here than Tampa ... so if Tampa doesn't want him for a particular price, I'm not sure it will be a good deal for us.

Also, we just don't need him as much as we need a goaltender, defense, and a 2/3 center.
#2
If you got to choose, which free agent would you go after first?  And what is the max contract (cap hit/year) you would give him (one dollar more and you decline the deal)?
#3
Quote from: herman on Yesterday at 11:43:25 AMhttps://twitter.com/tlndc/status/1795803429128008027
Jiri Tlusty energy in this headline

I feel Knies underperformed quite a bit relative to expectations and to his position in the lineup along the side our top offensive players for most of the year.  Compare Knies 15 goals in 80 games to 15/14 goals for McMann/Robertson in just 56 games each, many of which were with lesser linemates.  Knies defense was also not one of his strengths.

I am unsure what the expected improvement curve for a guy his age with his experience is, but lets hope it is steep.
#4
Quote from: Bender on May 26, 2024, 11:48:09 AM
Quote from: herman on May 26, 2024, 09:40:04 AMhttps://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1794401122054017253
See this? Marner is great at passing into the slot! Too bad it's to Joel Edmundson all the time

https://twitter.com/jhanhky/status/1794735118919303300
Oh wait, that's why it's always to Joel Edmundson.

J "but the chart says" Fresh needs to sit down.

Not all passes to the slot may be equal in value, but the fact that he's #2 on the list still probably tells us something.

Humans look for simple single explanations to complex phenomena and sometimes there just aren't single simple explanations.  The media and the fans are being far too hard on a single guy.
#5
Another thing to remember on Marner is that fans have very short memories.  If he leads the leafs in scoring next year (entirely possible or even likely if he's healthy), fans will appreciate his contributions...

The worst time to make a trade is when you feel you have to.  Hard to imagine a scenario in which trading Marner makes the team better.

One thing I would be excited about for next year is a full season of Marner/Matthews/Nylander split across 3 lines to see how that works.
#6
Jacob Chychrun seems like an interesting trade target who would fit into the leafs cap space.  I wonder what it would take to pry him loose.  Robertson, Liljegren, + ?
#7
Suppose the leafs don't trade anyone. Here is a rough estimate of how much we can afford to pay free agents ... please do check my work!

10 forwards (currently under contract): 55.5M
2 RFA forwards (Robertson, Dewar): 2.2M?
4 defensemen (I'm not counting Cade Webber): 12M
1 RFA defenseman (Liljegren): 2M?
1 goalie: .8M

Total: 72.5
Cap: 87.7
Free space: 15.2
Am I getting that right?

It seems like we need at least:
A) 1 top 6 forward + 1 other forward (could be Cowan at .9M)
B) 1 top 4 defenseman + 1 other defenseman (could be a cheapo)
C) 1 starting goalie

Looks like we could splurge in one of the categories and get a 7M player and then skimp in the others.  I have no idea if there are any goalies available or what they would be going for.

Eg:
Domi (4M), Cowan (.8)
Tanev (5M), Edmunson/whoever (1.5M)
Goalie (4.2M)

That probably leaves us with a pretty terrible goalie (though we might hope for injury luck with Woll), zero offense from the defense outside of Reilly (and a risky injury record), and a slightly worse set of forwards than last year. (I think Bertuzzi was better than his numbers ... in the 2nd half of the year, every line he played on played well even if his numbers were fairly middling. Knies, McMann and maybe Robertson might be slightly more impactful next year than last)

Edit: My source for numbers: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs
#9
Quote from: L K on May 17, 2024, 08:42:35 PM
Quote from: princedpw on May 17, 2024, 07:15:32 PM
Quote from: Highlander on May 17, 2024, 04:11:56 PMthe more I read about him, the more I like the pick. Holds players accountable and that is exaclty what a few of these guys need. I wonder how much player input he will have on acquisitions etc with Treviling?

Ok. I need to know what "holding players accountable" means and how that helps the leafs win a game 7.  Like specifically, what does a coach holding players accountable do and why does it make Samsonov save 1 extra goal or Marner score an extra goal?

 

To me, it looks like the Leafs want to win. And they have played well in many high pressure situations. They haven't won a game 7. But is the pressure really noticeably higher in that game 7 than game 5 or 6 that have to win?

I think a fairer argument for the team is that they struggle to close games out rather than play in high pressure situations.

2018 - win Game 6 to tie it 3-3 lose 7-4 in Game 7
2019 - win Game 5 to go up 3-2 and lose Game 6 4-2 and Game 7 5-1
2020 - win Game 4 to tie it 2-2 then lose Game 5 3-0
2021 - win game 4 to go up 3-1 and lose Game 5, Game 6, Game 7
2022 - win Game 5 to go up 3-2 then lose Game 6 and Game 7
2023 - win Game 4 to go up 3-1 then lose Game 5 and win Game 6; Win Game 4 to go 3-1 then lose Game 5
2024 - win Games 5/6 to tie it up 3-3 then lose Game 7

When the Leafs are facing potential elimination they are 4-9 since 2018
When the Leafs opponents are facing elimination they are 1-11

The Leafs can't put teams away when their opponent is up against the wall. 


Good point!
#10
Quote from: Highlander on May 17, 2024, 04:11:56 PMthe more I read about him, the more I like the pick. Holds players accountable and that is exaclty what a few of these guys need. I wonder how much player input he will have on acquisitions etc with Treviling?

Ok. I need to know what "holding players accountable" means and how that helps the leafs win a game 7.  Like specifically, what does a coach holding players accountable do and why does it make Samsonov save 1 extra goal or Marner score an extra goal?

 

To me, it looks like the Leafs want to win. And they have played well in many high pressure situations. They haven't won a game 7. But is the pressure really noticeably higher in that game 7 than game 5 or 6 that have to win?

#11
A Nylander explosion would be helpful tonight.
#12
Quote from: Zee on May 02, 2024, 02:17:48 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on May 02, 2024, 11:43:31 AM
Quote from: Zee on May 02, 2024, 11:35:42 AMConcussions can be weird though and sometimes they go undiagnosed which might have cleared him to play. We'll find out when the Leafs are out (whenever that may be)

He still wouldn't be out on the ice at all in the last couple days if it was a concussion. He'd be shut down completely until the symptoms were gone.

Good point.

Concussion seems like the most plausible thing I have heard -- he might not cleared for contact but could be cleared for skating during recovery from concussion-like symptoms (couldn't he?).

There is a video of him skating.  If he was sick with something like the flu, the problem would be stamina.  If that were the case, why not have him at least as the 12th forward, deployed on the power play?
#13
It is weird to me that they don't put Robertson in Matthews slot on PP1.  The guy's shot is a weapon.  It's not like the power play is humming and shouldn't be changed.
#15
Quote from: herman on April 24, 2024, 03:59:28 PM
Quote from: princedpw on April 24, 2024, 03:49:28 PMI'm in Europe (Netherlands) and my normal streams were blocked. Any suggested sites?

This is my usual and worked the last time I was overseas
https://nhlwebcast.com/on-air/

Thank you!