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Messages - Bender

#31
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 28, 2024, 10:39:34 AMI'm a little numb to whatever happens with Marner at this point tbh. The options are basically:

1) Trade him now for a somewhat similarly high-end player in the league
2) Trade him now in more of a 4 quarters for a dollar type trade to boost the teams depth, futures, and cap space
3) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and re-sign him to as fair a contract as possible depending on how well he performs
4) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and let him walk either due to his performance (or lack of) or simply because the two sides can't come to reasonable terms

I don't think any of them would be catastrophically bad for the Leafs. They all have their pro's and con's, some surely a little more or less than others, but a good team/organization/GM should still be able to make the most out of any of them.

I don't see how letting him walk for nothing wouldn't be somewhat catastrophic from an asset management standpoint.
#32
Quote from: cw on May 28, 2024, 08:13:04 AM
Quote from: Bender on May 27, 2024, 07:59:19 PMWe all know you can't build a contender through free agency. This is why people are talking about trades.

I'm also pessimistic more or less running it back will lead to anything either.

The thing about "running it back" is they really never ran it.
Which one of the rosters they put together looked like a Cup winner?
2022-23 was probably the closest.

Massive media and fans claim Marner isn't any good in the playoffs (I don't agree with them). If there is a Marner trade going down, Leafs must concur that to some significant extent because they're dumping Marner. I think it is more than wishful thinking to expect to get very much for him under those circumstances given his $10.9M cap hit. Who wants a very pricey player who can't play or produce in the playoffs (even though he leads his team in playoff scoring over 8 years ...)? The fact that they're dumping him via trade devalues him.


1. Generally teams don't trade players who are at the peak of their perceived value, especially if the players wants to be there and the team is contending otherwise why trade them? The alternative is a team thinks a player needs a change of scenery in which case the argument is it devalues him. I get the rationale but it's circular logic. I get it in the abstract, and we'll never know what we get back in potential Marner deals or if one goes down, but I don't think just because a team thinks a player can have success elsewhere or needs to address their needs down the lineup automatically makes a potential trade a bad one and an automatic loss, nor do I think discussing it devalues the  player. I think teams would line up for a shot at Marner knowing he may just need out of Toronto, plain and simple. I don't think the team will make a deal that can't be popularly viewed as relatively fair value.

2. I don't understand your "did they run it back?" comment. They signed/extended the core 4 and there's too much cap space tied up at forward for the team to be a true contender, but they've ran the same basic core lineup year in year out with basically the same result for over half a decade. So yes, they ran a flawed team back many times, and quite frankly I don't understand why we're so worried about considering what we've seen since 2016, which is basically routine failure.

To be honest, barring a major shakeup, I think the die has already been cast on Matthews' (and this group's) time here. And call me crazy but I'd rather the Leafs have a bottom 5 season and get a top 5 draft choice than lose in the first round again.
#33
Quote from: cw on May 27, 2024, 03:16:43 PMIf Colorado offered MacKinnon, Makar & Georgiev for Matthews straight up (& they were all willing to go along with it with their NTC/NMC clauses), who in Leafs Nation (aside from crazy Matthews fans) wouldn't do that deal? It obviously would never happen but it is another way of saying everybody is tradeable. Gretzky was traded.

It is the duty of a GM to look at all the credible options and do whatever he can to put the best teams together he can. In that way, no one is untouchable but their NMCs may be an insurmountable obstacle/complication that limits their options severely. NTC/NMC clauses were formalized in the 2005 CBA but have been around for decades before that. We didn't have sites like CapFriendly to keep track of them. It seemed more confidential back then. I do not recall hearing nearly as much about them. A number of deals probably never got done because of them but we never heard about it. Today, it seems about 20% of the league has a NTC or NMC clause which has to be substantially more than decades ago. Add in the cap/CBA and it is more difficult to haggle a trade.

Although I liked Samsonov, I never thought Samsonov was a likely Cup winner. With him & the Leafs 2023-4 dmen, they weren't likely to win much of anything. They had $18.8 mil to spend on UFAs last summer and were a worse roster of talent than the spring of last year. So it wasn't a shock as they played like it down the stretch with special teams problems that carried on into the playoffs.

Playoffs arrive. Matthews & Nylander are injured for a number of playoff games. The coach puts Tavares & Marner on a checking line against Pastrnak with a lot of d-zone starts. The PP & PK problems down the stretch are not corrected and brutal in the playoffs. Up against Boston, one of the better defensive teams in the NHL, with the above circumstances, is it any wonder why they had trouble scoring? Seemed kind of obvious.

To me, maybe the most surprising thing was they made it a 7 game series. They were never a true contender. They needed a bunch of luck.

Marner becomes the media piƱata in part because as the team's leading playoff scorer and top playoff powerplay scorer over the past 8 seasons, he apparently hasn't done enough in the playoffs. And the apparent hope is, they'll take his cap money if they can get him to leave and spend it more wisely than they did last summer. Few seem to remember that management never successfully addressed the shortfalls of last summer. It wasn't all their fault - it was a pretty barren UFA, market for their dman needs.

This is a dangerous game to play because a hometown player who is a top 10 scorer in the league since he arrived may leave for nothing. If he does, they'll have all kinds of cap space next year to spend in a UFA market which is arguably the worst place to shop for price performance needed to build a Cup contender. They're already going to get a bunch of cap space from Tavares deal ending in summer 2025 too. Yet in 2023 summer, they couldn't find $18 mil cap in decent players they needed on the UFA market. So how much will $51.8 mil to spend in 2025 help them? They do not have a lot of prospect/picks to throw at trades either as those are needed to help keep them under the cap in subsequent seasons.

The one view that did it for me was working out how things will look in 2025-26 when Tavares comes off the books. Give Marner Nylander money. Add Cowan & Minten at entry level salaries. They have oodles of cap space to re-sign Knies, Woll & Holdberg, re-sign McCabe and add 2 other top 4 dmen, etc.

Matthews is around for 4 more seasons. Not one. The roster decisions should look at taking multiple kicks to win a Cup during those 4 years- not get some cap space in year one that could hurt the following three years.

It is not as simple a decision as the media seems to be making it out to be.

The one person would might benefit nuking Marner would be Shanahan as it might help them do more next season than they otherwise would as his contract expires. But if Treliving waits until after July 1 for a sign and trade, a bunch of the UFA market for next season will have signed.

Anything is possible but I'm pessimistic dumping Marner is good for the next four Cup runs with Matthews. We'll see soon enough what Treliving comes up with.

We all know you can't build a contender through free agency. This is why people are talking about trades.

I'm also pessimistic more or less running it back will lead to anything either.
#34
Quote from: bustaheims on May 27, 2024, 09:03:09 AMI don't think the Leafs should be looking to offload Marner, regardless of the return or other factors. That's just silly talk. He's too good a player for that, and some posters are being too glib about that.

That being said, with basically everyone who saw significant time with the Leafs this past season other than Matthews, Nylander, and Knies, the Leafs need to be willing to move on if doing so improves the team as a whole. While you're never going to get a Marner-level talent in return, it's quite possible that the sum of the parts returning could be more helpful in the team reaching their ultimate goal than Marner alone. The team as it is right now is flawed. There's only so much tinkering that can be done around the margins before you have to start looking at swapping out core pieces, and, I think that's where the Leafs are right now. Just about every option needs to be on the table.

They definitely should not be offloading him, but I think it's obvious the reason he gets brought up though is because of his current and future cap hits, the potential for bad blood negotiations over the summer and beyond, the possibility of him walking for nothing like Gaudreau, his issues of wilting in the playoffs and the need to better balance the roster. I'm not against a punt year to get JT off the books though, but the problem is we aren't going to win going the FA route and we don't have any draftees we can bank on to outperform their rookie contracts. 

Unless we can pull off some kind of drastic move(s), I think this is the unfortunate reality of letting too many free agents walk for nothing coupled with throwing picks away for win now way too early and piss poor drafting and developing. The whole thing was mismanaged as soon as they made the playoffs in Year 1.
#35
Quote from: Bullfrog on May 26, 2024, 09:50:00 PM
Quote from: Bender on May 26, 2024, 05:23:37 PMLetting him walk for nothing should not be considered an option.

Well, it IS an option. One that's out of their control.

It is an option, but one that should be avoided at all costs obviously. Even taking on Mitch at Auston's salary is better than losing him for nothing.
#36
Quote from: RedLeaf on May 26, 2024, 02:53:15 PMI wish some members of the media would stop harping on about Marner being the problem for the Leafs not having more playoff success.

Marner is not the problem.

In fact, I would wager he will move onto another team find amazing playoff success and prove this BS theory completely false.

The problem with Maple Leafs is structure, too top heavy and not enough players that can or are willing to play good defensive hockey (Marner is not poor defensively, as proven with his utility on the penalty kill).

It will be regrettable if Marner is the player that is forced out the door in order to fix this teams flaws, but the most regrettable issue is how some of the media are berating him and placing the blame squarely on him .

The guy is one of the very best offensive players in the league and one of the best Leafs of all time. I just hope trading him or letting him walk doesn't come back and bite this team in the ass like it has with a few other ex-Leafs in recent years.

Letting him walk for nothing should not be considered an option.
#37
Quote from: herman on May 26, 2024, 09:40:04 AMhttps://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1794401122054017253
See this? Marner is great at passing into the slot! Too bad it's to Joel Edmundson all the time

https://twitter.com/jhanhky/status/1794735118919303300
Oh wait, that's why it's always to Joel Edmundson.

J "but the chart says" Fresh needs to sit down.
#38
Quote from: cw on May 24, 2024, 10:08:18 AM
Quote from: Bender on May 24, 2024, 08:31:15 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on May 24, 2024, 07:47:33 AMAgreed, cw. I think trading Marner for the hopes that the cap space will allow other acquisitions is just not a smart risk. This is only advisable when you have a deal in place for another player that is contingent on that cap space being available.

I only advocate for Marner's trade if the Leafs get equal value in return. This is unlikely, so I think a trade is unlikely.

Trading Marner makes a ton of sense if he doesn't want to be here anymore anyway, and I think there is a way where you get the truth out of him and a way to position it in a way that is mutually beneficial.

Do you honestly see him signing an extension? I don't think he wants to be one of the most hated (or at least massively polarizing) figures in Toronto sports for another however many years.

I think it is a very delicate situation. LeBrun reported no list of teams coming from his agent.
A few in the media have reported that the Leafs have not made any inquiries about trading him.

Marner is a newly wed. Both his and her families are from the Toronto area. With his contract, he's not moving twice. Maybe starting a family is underway. I think he's pretty tight with his teammates - some of them won't want him gone.

If Marner gets wind that the Leafs are floating him in a potential trade, what are their chances of changing their minds next summer when/if he's a UFA and they're looking at the 3rd most free cap space among contending teams?

I think this is a very delicate situation and the Leafs better be careful or they'll lose their top playoff scorer for nothing.

The team and the players can control a lot of the PR on this. If they don't want to lose him for nothing, they better reel in the media narrative, protect their asset and do it soon. At the very least, hopefully, they've communicated to calm his camp down. The longer it goes on, the more likely that it does not end well for the team. Worst case for Marner is he fulfils his contract and goes to another team who really wants him that he likes the most next summer and probably for a BIG bundle of dough. Some folks were mad at Sundin for declining to be traded but a lot of that passed. What is his crime? Having the team honour the deal they signed. If the team didn't want that, they should have done the deal differently.

Tavares has also indicated again that he's sticking with his NMC: a contractual right he also negotiated in good faith.

I guess my point is he could walk at any point for any reason and the idea we should just sign because he can walk doesn't hold much water because he still can just walk. He obviously holds all the cards but the team has to explore what its options are, and if Marner takes that personally to a point where he doesn't sign (unless it's for more than Willy) and refuses to be traded then he will opt to be one of the most hated sports figures in Toronto's recent memory. Good luck living in SW Ontario again.

As for the NMC point, players do have a right to stick with the NMC, but it doesn't mean management can't also push the topic. Also, in the words of Brian Burke: I didn't sign it.
#39
Quote from: Bullfrog on May 24, 2024, 07:47:33 AMAgreed, cw. I think trading Marner for the hopes that the cap space will allow other acquisitions is just not a smart risk. This is only advisable when you have a deal in place for another player that is contingent on that cap space being available.

I only advocate for Marner's trade if the Leafs get equal value in return. This is unlikely, so I think a trade is unlikely.

Trading Marner makes a ton of sense if he doesn't want to be here anymore anyway, and I think there is a way where you get the truth out of him and a way to position it in a way that is mutually beneficial.

Do you honestly see him signing an extension? I don't think he wants to be one of the most hated (or at least massively polarizing) figures in Toronto sports for another however many years.
#40
Really didn't think they'd be able to get it done with Skinner, but they gutted it out. Had to shut it off after 1OT though.
#41
Quote from: herman on May 23, 2024, 08:58:40 AM
Quote from: Bender on May 22, 2024, 10:00:13 PMPretty thorough by the Panthers tonight.

Dubas had the right idea about offense being a good defense, but the methodology of creating good offensive puck time is done a bit differently by Maurice. Relentless forecheck pressure vs perimeter puck probes; the former is just a matter of consistent effort and hard on the defending team, while the latter is quite mentally taxing for the puck possession team and easy for the defending team to disrupt and counter.

It's the old Jake Gardiner kryptonite. Pressure the puck carriers to make quick decisions, get the other team off their game, grind them down. Make them second guess every play they make. It's about time we don't write off counter punching as a very viable strategy.

As well credit where it's due, Bob did make some great saves too.
#42
Quote from: Bullfrog on May 23, 2024, 07:55:03 AM
Quote from: Frank E on May 22, 2024, 06:45:03 PM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 22, 2024, 06:32:30 PM
Quote from: Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington on May 22, 2024, 05:43:44 PMI agree that I can only see Marner headed for free agency. About the only leverage the Leafs have is being able to give him an 8 year deal in either keeping him or sign and trade, but I reckon he will go the Matthews route of shorter term and sign for 3-4 years on the open market at a rate the Leafs won't match and then a big big contract aged 30-31. So that leverage won't apply.

Wonder if this could turn ugly at games this season if/when he refuses to waive. He's already a target on social media. That's bound to transfer into the arena too at some point.
Only way 16 doesn't get an 8 year deal is if he doesn't want to sign one or goes the UFA route. He has to be on the signing team's roster by the deadline to qualify for an 8 year deal.

If the Leafs ask him to waive he won't be coming back here if he goes to UFA.




I think you need to put yourself in Marner's camp for a second...this is a way to get him an 8 year deal and leave with dignity...he's from here.  He's not going to poison this well.  And the Leafs have leverage.

For Marner, perhaps. I'm not sure his team lists dignity at the top of their values.

If I were Marner, I think I'd lean towards not taking an extension this year. He'll get his $11M+ from somebody. Is an 8-year vs 7-year contract of that much concern to him?

If you can get a massive signing bonus, 8yrs, dictate where you want to go and get out of a bad situation then why wait? Why prolong the misery? If Marner plays hardball I can see the Leafs keeping him away from Matthews and making his remaining time here insufferable.
#43
Pretty thorough by the Panthers tonight.
#44
Toronto Blue Jays / Re: 2024 Blue Jays
May 22, 2024, 09:59:34 PM
Well that was a fun game to attend, save for that brain-dead moment by Vladdy.
#45
Quote from: Dappleganger on May 22, 2024, 10:00:56 AMBuffalo has three solid young defensemen in Dahlin, Power, and Byron.

They could use a top-six winger. Maybe there is a fit there for Marner. It'd keep Marner pretty close to home.


I'd not trade him in division if it could be helped.