TMLfans.ca

Maple Leafs News and Views => Leafs Rumours & Speculation => Topic started by: CarltonTheBear on April 07, 2020, 11:25:26 AM

Title: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 07, 2020, 11:25:26 AM
We've gone from a potential $88mil salary cap ceiling just a month ago to a (likely) best case scenario of the salary cap remaining flat at $81.5mil because of everything going on. Not exactly great news. Let's see how that would effect the Leafs next season. This is our line-up of currently signed players for next season:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Johnsson-Tavares-Marner
Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen
______-Spezza*-Barabanov

Rielly-Holl
Muzzin-Liljegren
Sandin-______
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

That line-up, plus of course of retained salary on Phil, gives us a total cap hit of $78.6mil. That leaves us with about $2.8mil in salary cap space.

There's still also a number of restricted free agents to sign, the key ones being: Dermott, Mikheyev, Gauthier, and Malgin.

Our UFAs include Barrie, Ceci, Clifford, Spezza, and the ghosts of Clarkson and Horton. Safe to say Barrie and Ceci are gone. While the Leafs may have had the intention of re-signing Clifford I think a flat cap will pretty much wipe that possibility out. I went ahead and plugged Spezza into the line-up at $700k again. If it's not him filling that spot it'll likely be another league minimum guy like Gauthier so for projecting purposes it doesn't really matter.

There's also still a number of cheap depth options signed including Petan, Agostino, Korshkov, Robertson at forward and Rosen on defence. I largely included Marincin over Rosen because he's $50,000 cheaper and it'll annoy Frank.

So based off that line-up we have two roster spots open to fit Dermott and Mikheyev in and only $2.8mil in cap space to make it happen.

The two most obvious options are as follows. 1) Trade one of the middle 6 forwards (Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kapanen, or Hyman) to create some additional cap space or 2) try and convince those RFAs to split that $2.8mil between them on 1-year deals. I don't think option 2 is really that far-fetched, especially considering all teams will be faced with similar challenges. I imagine basically every free agent is going to end up getting less money this summer than they would have expected to a month ago.

The 3rd option of course is to think a little bigger with trades, potentially packaging Dermott with a Johnsson or Kapanen in hopes of acquiring a top-4 RHD. But even in that case we'll be limited to a defender making less than $4mil so that option would seem really difficult to pull off. Quality defenders making less than that amount don't become available very often.

Obviously though a flat cap isn't 100% confirmed yet, but if it's what ends up happening I think any hope of improving our defence next season goes down the drain.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on April 07, 2020, 11:40:28 AM
For the record, I am.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 07, 2020, 11:46:04 AM
For the record, I am.

 ;D
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Andy on April 07, 2020, 11:49:20 AM
Ok so we flip Marner to Nashville for Ellis and Arvidsson; you get the top RHD spot filled and a top 6 winger for essentially the same cap hit as Marner alone.

Next we send Kapanen to Columbus for Anderson(+?) and sign Anderson for slightly under Kapanen's cap hit x 4 years (ideally; will settle for 3).

That leaves us with a spot for Mikheyev with nearly 3 million cap space available and Dermott, with the backend all filled out, can be shopped for picks/prospects.

Crazy? Unrealistic? Stupid? All three?

Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Andy on April 07, 2020, 11:53:22 AM
Hyman- Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev- Tavares- Arvidsson
Johnsson- Kerfoot- Anderson
Engvall- Spezza- Barbanov

Agostino
Brooks

Rielly- Ellis
Muzzin- Liljegren
Sandin- Holl

Marincin

I.....kinda like it...
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 07, 2020, 11:53:42 AM
I think our defense improves structurally, regardless of personnel changes (or lack thereof).

Our top forwards are expanding their games into better defensive responsibility under Keefe, and the team is going to get an actual training camp to develop and ingrain the system patterns.

Muzzin - Holl
Rielly - Marincin
Sandin - Dermott
Rosen - Liljegren

If we trade out both Johnsson and Kapanen (unlikely, but hey) that's 7ish M that could be a big swing. Another option is Colin Miller who has fallen out of favour in Buffalo (for some reason) and is affordable and Dubas/Keefe are familiar with him. Can he handle second-pairing alongside Rielly or Muzzin?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 07, 2020, 11:54:08 AM
Hyman- Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev- Tavares- Arvidsson
Johnsson- Kerfoot- Anderson
Engvall- Spezza- Barbanov

Agostino
Brooks

Rielly- Ellis
Muzzin- Liljegren
Sandin- Holl

Marincin

I.....kinda like it...

Marincin would be a decent goalie.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Andy on April 07, 2020, 11:56:43 AM
Hyman- Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev- Tavares- Arvidsson
Johnsson- Kerfoot- Anderson
Engvall- Spezza- Barbanov

Agostino
Brooks

Rielly- Ellis
Muzzin- Liljegren
Sandin- Holl

Marincin

I.....kinda like it...

Marincin would be a decent goalie.

If that were true, Edmonton would never have let him go  ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on April 07, 2020, 12:46:34 PM
Ok so we flip Marner to Nashville for Ellis and Arvidsson; you get the top RHD spot filled and a top 6 winger for essentially the same cap hit as Marner alone.

Next we send Kapanen to Columbus for Anderson(+?) and sign Anderson for slightly under Kapanen's cap hit x 4 years (ideally; will settle for 3).

That leaves us with a spot for Mikheyev with nearly 3 million cap space available and Dermott, with the backend all filled out, can be shopped for picks/prospects.

Crazy? Unrealistic? Stupid? All three?
Yes :o
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 08, 2020, 09:27:33 AM
Marincin would be a decent goalie.

If that were true, Edmonton would never have let him go  ;)

Hey, they let Dubnyk go thinking he was nothing!
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 08, 2020, 10:43:01 AM
League-min jumps to 750k for 2021-22 so look for Dubas to sign two year deals for some fringe folk (Malgin, Brooks) @ 725k AAV
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 09, 2020, 11:43:56 AM
https://theleafsnation.com/2020/04/09/optimizing-the-leafs-roster-for-the-seattle-expansion-draft

The Leafs remain well set up to not lose much, barring shakeups to the roster this off-season:
7F: Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kapanen
3D: Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott
1G: Andersen/Campbell

We are losing someone on the level of Engvall/Dermott/Holl (until he was traded I was pretty sure it'd be Trevor Moore).

'Lucky': Sandin, Liljegren, Mikheyev, and Robertson (and Der-Arguchintsev) are exempt

Tricky decisions:
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: L K on April 09, 2020, 12:00:25 PM
I mean I would be open to freeing up the cap hit from Kerfoot depending on how he gets used.  If he's going to be that winger on the 2nd line I don't think his salary is worth his production.  If he's playing up the middle on the 3rd line though with spot duty in the top 6 I think that is a different matter.

I'm honestly having a hard time finding how we keep Hyman on this team if next year he keeps up his scoring pace from this season.  His point production has gone up for three straight years as well as his goal scoring.   He only put up 1G against Boston last year but did it on fragments of a knee.  He isn't going to be a cheap contract if he can get a full season in the 50-60 point range that he was on pace for this year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 09, 2020, 12:37:05 PM
Kerfoot is 3C. He was only 2W because both Johnsson and Mikheyev got hurt and Kapanen and Engvall literally could not to satisfactory levels. Kapanen has the tools to keep up, but not the brain.

I'm honestly having a hard time finding how we keep Hyman on this team if next year he keeps up his scoring pace from this season.  His point production has gone up for three straight years as well as his goal scoring.

As predicted by just about nobody, except 2018 me ;D His shooting percentage was about twice the level of his proper norm (19% vs ~10%) this season, so I don't think this is getting repeated. I'd re-up for 3 years in the 3 to 3.75M range, which is about what Johnsson and Kapanen are getting for being younger 20 goal scorers. Even if he walks to UFA, I wouldn't mind Spezza-ing him on an annual basis after that final payday if he's up for it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 09, 2020, 01:27:02 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 09, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.

That's a yup.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 09, 2020, 04:05:11 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.

That's a yup.
I don't expect him to. Hard to tell what he's really worth stats wise, when you consider who he's played with. I also don't think we'll hear anything about it until he signs, like Matthews did. It'll be very quiet until it's done unlike the Marner fiasco.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on April 09, 2020, 04:26:26 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.

(https://i.imgflip.com/3w1nr8.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 09, 2020, 04:44:23 PM
Considering how overdue I am for a haircut the resemblance there is actually pretty striking.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: princedpw on April 09, 2020, 04:50:36 PM
Obviously, the world has vastly more important things to worry about, but it is too bad the Matthews/Marner contract came up immediately before the pandemic instead of after it ...
 
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on April 09, 2020, 09:06:03 PM
  • Andersen and Hyman hit UFA 2021: of the 2, you can easily convince me to re-sign and protect Hyman, especially if a Kapanen/Johnsson get moved out
  • Andersen probably doesn't get re-upped here; overpaying 30+ goaltenders is a death sentence in the Cap era (MTL, FLA) even if they're All-Star caliber.

Good post...The only thing I question is the above. I understand your desire not to Montreal this and sign an overhyped, injury prone goalie to a 70 year 700 million dollar contract, but I'm not sure I want to see a poor defensive team with a Jack Campbell/Insert Mediocre starter here tandem and expect to compete.

I'm not even a big Andersen fan but he's going to produce more wins than Campbell and any partner you find for him. Unless there's a guy waiting in the wings relatively soon, or a potential UFA to pick up, i don't see how you go with two borderline starters.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 10, 2020, 04:03:22 PM

Pulling this in from the main thread because CJ talk about the pandemic ramifications on the salary cap beyond it staying flat: there’s a possibility for a new CBA or salary roll back (a la post-04/05).

Dubas has insinuated this possibility as well (obliquely), that some UFAs then might make different decisions coming out of this situation than they normally would have looking at a long term pay day: i.e. short term to ride out the changed salary measures and jump to a new contract sooner. I don’t think a top flight player will take a Spezza year, but they might accommodate their team of choice’s cap situation more readily for just a spell.

Too early to say anything definitive but it will have some bearing on how the Leafs proceed with Andersen. Heck maybe even Tyson Barrie.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: . on April 10, 2020, 07:05:15 PM
I'm not even a big Andersen fan but he's going to produce more wins than Campbell and any partner you find for him. Unless there's a guy waiting in the wings relatively soon, or a potential UFA to pick up, i don't see how you go with two borderline starters.

I'd love to see Andersen extended for at least enough time to get some goaltending depth in the system, but another team(s) surely can and will be able to offer more than the leafs can match.

Personally, I find goaltending a difficult position to judge. I don't think that GAA and SV% are particularly good metrics in isolation, and the optics of giving up goals or big saves in tight games tends to cloud judgement. I tend to think Andersen is an elite goalie, playing in front of a very poor defensive team for the majority of his tenure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 11, 2020, 07:34:00 AM

Potential KHL ELC goalie off the board.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-interested-record-breaking-khl-goalie-timur-bilyalov/
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on April 11, 2020, 10:22:51 AM
As Dorothy said "Theres no place like home"............especially in these days.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 15, 2020, 12:42:55 PM
Let's say it's July 13, the Leafs have no cap space to land any big RD fish, even after trading out a 3ishM winger for picks and parts.

Is Cody Ceci a no-brainer to bring back on a 1-yr 700k to 1M deal for a third pair-PK role?

I'd be a yes. Is this situation likely to play out... maybe!
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on April 15, 2020, 12:47:47 PM

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 15, 2020, 12:48:49 PM

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: princedpw on April 15, 2020, 01:56:48 PM

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).

A luxury tax would be awesome, but the owners will never allow it.

I think the fairest thing to do is to set the cap at roughly what it would have been had there been no pandemic.  If you do that then all of the players will take a salary hit in proportion to their current salary and/or salary that they would have received had there been no pandemic (via the escrow mechanism).

If you set the cap (substantially) lower than that (and there is no buyout mechanism), what will wind up happening is that all of the players who already have contracts will not take (much of) a hit and there will be no money left to pay the free agents.  It doesn't seem reasonable that there be massive discrepancies in pay based solely on whether or not a player has a contract through the next year or is a free agent.

----

More generally, a better way to do player contracts is not to assign players set dollar amounts but rather to assign them cap percentages each year.  Then the money they receive automatically goes up and down with league revenue.  Players (and GMs) wouldn't have to guess at what future caps will be.  Right now, we'll have a huge decrease, but in some future year, when we recover, we'll likely have some massive increase.  It makes more sense to me to avoid the guess work involved in economic forecasting, and simply assign players value relative to the cap (and eachother).
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Dappleganger on April 15, 2020, 02:32:44 PM
Can we find out if owners have insurance policies that cover losses due to a pandemic? Also, if the players have this type of coverage as well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on April 15, 2020, 03:37:18 PM
Can we find out if owners have insurance policies that cover losses due to a pandemic? Also, if the players have this type of coverage as well.

That information will only become publicly available if the teams or players want it to. I doubt we'll ever know for sure whether or not their insurance policies cover pandemics (there are definitely policies out there that do, but there are also lots that don't - I imagine some teams and players have the right policies, but I doubt there's blanket coverage across the league).
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: L K on April 15, 2020, 03:42:36 PM
I'm sure a team like the Leafs pays for a disaster insurance.  Teams like Florida and some of the other teams who historically haven't paid for insurance on riskier contracts I would imagine haven't.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 16, 2020, 12:59:36 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.


Dude noped (https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/06/19/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-greg-mckegg-to-the-florida-panthers-for-rights-to-zach-hyman/) out of Florida trying to sign him out of University and for all intents and purposes ask them to trade him to Toronto.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 16, 2020, 01:18:24 PM
Corye Pronman's (someone who I generally like, but obviously no one is perfect) short scouting report about Hyman from 2015 that was referenced in that article is pretty funny in hindsight:

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 16, 2020, 01:32:39 PM
Corye Pronman's (someone who I generally like, but obviously no one is perfect) short scouting report about Hyman from 2015 that was referenced in that article is pretty funny in hindsight:

Invalid Tweet ID

I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

The linked Star article (http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2011/05/06/feschuk_promising_prospect_has_options_inside_and_outside_hockey.html) about Hyman (prior to his being drafted) speaks to Hyman's work ethic and the chip on his shoulder from his father's antics. Everyone looked down on him because it seemed like his dad bought Zach's way onto the team, or into the draft.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 16, 2020, 01:35:52 PM
I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

I don't know what you're talking about I've never spoken ill of Mr. Hyman.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 16, 2020, 01:44:03 PM
I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

I don't know what you're talking about I've never spoken ill of Mr. Hyman.

A likely story from someone who has to Porky Pig it because his pants burned away.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Chris on April 16, 2020, 02:22:19 PM
I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

I don't know what you're talking about I've never spoken ill of Mr. Hyman.

I remember referring to him as a "black hole on offense" a few years ago. Not because of his corner work/puck retrieval skills (which were and remain top notch), but because whenever someone passed him the puck and he had time/space, he always seemed to make a bad play - either holding the puck too long and eventually losing it, or making a bad pass or shot. To his credit, he's really improved in that area the last couple of years.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on April 16, 2020, 04:10:57 PM

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).

I don't think you need anything as drastic as a luxury tax. You could just make it so that if a player signs a deal his % of the cap could decrease as the cap went up but it couldn't increase if the cap dropped.

Yes, it would fundamentally have the effect of making it a soft cap but it would be a minor change to address a possibility that hasn't happened in 15 years of a cap.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 17, 2020, 01:44:03 PM
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bates on April 17, 2020, 02:30:13 PM
?s=19
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 21, 2020, 11:20:05 AM
Let's say it's July 13, the Leafs have no cap space to land any big RD fish, even after trading out a 3ishM winger for picks and parts.

Is Cody Ceci a no-brainer to bring back on a 1-yr 700k to 1M deal for a third pair-PK role?

I'd be a yes. Is this situation likely to play out... maybe!


I would.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on April 21, 2020, 11:27:30 AM
Let's say it's July 13, the Leafs have no cap space to land any big RD fish, even after trading out a 3ishM winger for picks and parts.

Is Cody Ceci a no-brainer to bring back on a 1-yr 700k to 1M deal for a third pair-PK role?

I'd be a yes. Is this situation likely to play out... maybe!

<snip>

I would.

The PK side of things isn't great, and he's a black hole on offence. I think there will be better options (or, at least, ones with less baggage) available.

Side note: Man, Zaitsev is terrible.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 21, 2020, 11:39:31 AM
Do I think Ceci at $700k to play 3rd pair + PK minutes is a bad deal? Not necessarily. But it would almost certainly come at the expense of playing Liljegren and I'd rather give him a fair shot at that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on April 21, 2020, 12:13:18 PM

 I can't think of a scenario that would make bringing Ceci back a good idea.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 21, 2020, 12:54:36 PM
Do I think Ceci at $700k to play 3rd pair + PK minutes is a bad deal? Not necessarily. But it would almost certainly come at the expense of playing Liljegren and I'd rather give him a fair shot at that.

I agree, but I also don't mind sheltering Liljegren for longer. He made huge strides in the AHL but was still a bit of a liability in NHL minutes. Sandin is already earmarked for that role, so how many can our cap-strapped roster support at once? If Ceci wants to Ennis himself in Toronto one more time, I'm here for it; maybe spin him off at the deadline for real (barring injury) if Liljegren overtakes Ceci by then.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on April 21, 2020, 12:59:25 PM
Do I think Ceci at $700k to play 3rd pair + PK minutes is a bad deal? Not necessarily. But it would almost certainly come at the expense of playing Liljegren and I'd rather give him a fair shot at that.

I agree, but I also don't mind sheltering Liljegren for longer. He made huge strides in the AHL but was still a bit of a liability in NHL minutes. Sandin is already earmarked for that role, so how many can our cap-strapped roster support at once? If Ceci wants to Ennis himself in Toronto one more time, I'm here for it; maybe spin him off at the deadline for real (barring injury) if Liljegren overtakes Ceci by then.

Ceci > Marincin
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: L K on April 21, 2020, 01:23:01 PM
Do I think Ceci at $700k to play 3rd pair + PK minutes is a bad deal? Not necessarily. But it would almost certainly come at the expense of playing Liljegren and I'd rather give him a fair shot at that.

I agree, but I also don't mind sheltering Liljegren for longer. He made huge strides in the AHL but was still a bit of a liability in NHL minutes. Sandin is already earmarked for that role, so how many can our cap-strapped roster support at once? If Ceci wants to Ennis himself in Toronto one more time, I'm here for it; maybe spin him off at the deadline for real (barring injury) if Liljegren overtakes Ceci by then.

If you got a guy like Ceci at 700K to play on the 3rd pair, that's still a pretty solid deal.  The best part about it would be that if Liljegren took his NHL experience and developed the next step in his game, you can also have him as the 7th defenseman or bury him in another organization/the AHL if Timothy was NHL ready.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 21, 2020, 01:25:19 PM
I think Ceci gets 3M easily on the open market, probably even 6M from... Winnipeg, let’s say.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on April 21, 2020, 01:27:24 PM
I think Ceci gets 3M easily on the open market, probably even 6M from... Winnipeg, let’s say.

I will laugh mightily if any team signs him for significantly more than $2M per.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 21, 2020, 01:39:13 PM
I think Ceci gets 3M easily on the open market, probably even 6M from... Winnipeg, let’s say.

I will laugh mightily if any team signs him for significantly more than $2M per.

Remember that time Ottawa missed out on Taylor Hall (https://oilersnation.com/2018/01/04/taylor-hall-for-cody-ceci-was-almost-a-thing/) because they weren't sure they wanted to let go of Cody Ceci and New Jersey pulled the trigger on Larsson? NHL GMs are fun
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on April 21, 2020, 01:56:23 PM
I think Dubas is going to have to try another bold move on defense this summer.  It didn't work out well last go-round, but I think he has to try again.

I don't think they can piece together anything interesting with the current bunch, and I don't think Barrie is in the plans...nor should he be.  They've only got another 2 seasons of Rielly on the affordable deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: . on April 21, 2020, 05:15:06 PM
I can already feel the hate, but Chara, 2yrs, 2.5M. Even with raise and mulityear, doubt he'd leave boston tho.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 21, 2020, 05:17:23 PM
I can already feel the hate, but Chara, 2yrs, 2.5M. Even with raise and mulityear, doubt he'd leave boston tho.

Yeah, I doubt he moves. Also two years is a bit of a non-starter for me (and he's left side).
But how wild would it be to have Spezza and Chara on the Leafs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: . on April 21, 2020, 05:25:13 PM
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2021/caphit/all/defense

Happy shopping
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on April 22, 2020, 02:47:00 PM
Pietrangelo's 16g and 36a = 52 pts in 70 games.

That's going to be expensive.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: princedpw on April 22, 2020, 07:31:47 PM
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2021/caphit/all/defense

Happy shopping

Ryan Pulock
Brandon Montour
Radko Gudas
Kevin Shattenkirk

?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on April 22, 2020, 08:11:19 PM
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2021/caphit/all/defense

Happy shopping

Ryan Pulock
Brandon Montour
Radko Gudas
Kevin Shattenkirk

?

Pulock and Montour are both not great defensively, and are going to be too expensive because of their offensive abilities. Shattenkirk will be coming off a great year on a cheap deal - he’ll be looking to get paid. Gudas has been trending downwards for a couple seasons now - a cheap, one year deal might work, but nothing significant.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on April 22, 2020, 08:20:17 PM
I’d be looking at guys like Justin Braun, Trevor van Riemsdyk, or Mackenzie Weegar. Not the sexiest of names, but guys who might come cheap and provide some defensive stability
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on April 23, 2020, 10:55:52 AM
I’d be looking at guys like Justin Braun, Trevor van Riemsdyk, or Mackenzie Weegar. Not the sexiest of names, but guys who might come cheap and provide some defensive stability

I don't know busta...there's a big hole on the right side in the top 4.

I think they need something sexy up in there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on April 23, 2020, 11:16:54 AM
I’d be looking at guys like Justin Braun, Trevor van Riemsdyk, or Mackenzie Weegar. Not the sexiest of names, but guys who might come cheap and provide some defensive stability

I don't know busta...there's a big hole on the right side in the top 4.

I think they need something sexy up in there.

Maybe, but that guy is not coming as a UFA signing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 23, 2020, 11:22:19 AM
Just for a reference, let's say hypothetically speaking we traded Johnsson, Dermott, and Mikheyev all for an upgrade on defence. That defenceman could only have about a $4.5-4.75mil cap hit if the cap stays flat (which pretty much seems like a certainty now).

edit: you could push that into the low 5s if the team runs just a 20 man roster.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 23, 2020, 11:24:08 AM
JOSH MANSON
(or even Adam Larsson)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 23, 2020, 11:41:09 AM
JOSH MANSON
(or even Adam Larsson)

I think Larsson is a guy who is likely on the move and could be a good fit here, but I'm pretty wary of dealing another forward with a few years of control like Johnsson for a defenceman with just 1 year left before UFA.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on April 23, 2020, 12:21:20 PM
I think Larsson is a guy who is likely on the move and could be a good fit here, but I'm pretty wary of dealing another forward with a few years of control like Johnsson for a defenceman with just 1 year left before UFA.

It just can't be one-for-one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on April 23, 2020, 12:45:07 PM
With all this going on, and the cap implications, I would think that those mid-tier $4-$5m guys that can play top pairing minutes are going to be at a premium.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: . on April 23, 2020, 01:15:41 PM
Just for a reference, let's say hypothetically speaking we traded Johnsson, Dermott, and Mikheyev all for an upgrade on defence. That defenceman could only have about a $4.5-4.75mil cap hit if the cap stays flat (which pretty much seems like a certainty now).

edit: you could push that into the low 5s if the team runs just a 20 man roster.

Holy crap. So basically, even with these three players and Ceci's salary gone, with everyone that we have currently under contract, the leafs only have 5ish to spend with all the gaps that exist also still open?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2020, 02:29:55 PM
JOSH MANSON
(or even Adam Larsson)

I think Larsson is a guy who is likely on the move and could be a good fit here, but I'm pretty wary of dealing another forward with a few years of control like Johnsson for a defenceman with just 1 year left before UFA.

Yeah, but is really going to see a raise on the $4m he's making?  I'd have to think he wouldn't be too hard to retain at a reasonable figure...hell, maybe it's a good thing his deal is only for 1 year given nobody knows what the cap is going to look like moving forward.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on July 13, 2020, 10:29:46 AM
Swiss left-shooting 24 year old centre Pius Suter (https://thehockeywriters.com/pius-suter-the-next-ones-nhl-2016-draft-prospect-profile/) of the Zurich Lions (https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0011792016.html) is exercising his NHL out-clause and is expected to sign with a team for the upcoming season. He most recently posed 30 goals and 23 assists in 50 games.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 13, 2020, 10:34:02 AM
Swiss left-shooting 24 year old centre Pius Suter of the Zurich Lions (https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0011792016.html) is exercising his NHL out-clause and is expected to sign with a team for the upcoming season.

Admittedly I don't know what the state of Swiss hockey is right now, but I find it interesting that any European (other than the ones who made commitments pre-covid) would choose to come over here for next season considering how hectic it's going to be.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on July 13, 2020, 10:36:23 AM
Swiss left-shooting 24 year old centre Pius Suter of the Zurich Lions (https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0011792016.html) is exercising his NHL out-clause and is expected to sign with a team for the upcoming season.

Admittedly I don't know what the state of Swiss hockey is right now, but I find it interesting that any European (other than the ones who made commitments pre-covid) would choose to come over here for next season considering how hectic it's going to be.

Perhaps the lure of a chance to reunite with two Swiss league championship teammates is a call that just needed to be answered.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on July 14, 2020, 12:22:59 PM
1 year @ 725k with a guarantee to be stapled to Matthews' left wing, let's go.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on July 14, 2020, 02:08:00 PM
Imagine having a Hall, a Holl and a Woll on one team.  :D
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on July 16, 2020, 11:51:10 AM
Swiss left-shooting 24 year old centre Pius Suter of the Zurich Lions (https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0011792016.html) is exercising his NHL out-clause and is expected to sign with a team for the upcoming season.

Admittedly I don't know what the state of Swiss hockey is right now, but I find it interesting that any European (other than the ones who made commitments pre-covid) would choose to come over here for next season considering how hectic it's going to be.

Perhaps the lure of a chance to reunite with two Swiss league championship teammates is a call that just needed to be answered.

He has gone to the Blackhawks (will soon be traded to Arizona)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 10:08:22 AM
Let's do a quick update on the team from the first post, which essentially represents the boring version of what next years team probably looks like:

Johnsson-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev*-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Robertson-Engvall-Barabanov

Rielly-Dermott*
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

Everyone in this line-up has a contract except for Mikheyev and Dermott. There's $2.7mil in cap space to split between the two. Let's say they both get pushed into short-term $1.25mil because of the flat cap.

That gives us $200k in cap space with a 21 man roster. No Spezza, and our defence looks kinda not great.

There's of course ways to create cap space here. With Robertson's emergence and the depth that provides on the left wing, a Johnsson trade feels pretty inevitable. So let's pop him out and replace him with Spezza (or someone else, but let's say Spezza) at $700k.

That gives us a 21 man roster with $2.9mil in cap space. We could do two things with that: sign Mikheyev and/or Dermott to longer and slightly more expensive deals. Or we could still strong-arm them into cheap deals and use the cap space to do something with our defence. One of Marincin or Liljegren would get bumped off the roster (other being the 7D) so that gives us about $3.5mil to spend on a (preferably) RHD.

There's still two more fairly simple ways to create some more space. First would be trading Dermott. The reasoning here would be any defenceman we sign would probably take that RHD spot alongside Rielly so Dermott would get bumped down to the 3rd pairing and ideally Liljegren is ready to take that role at a slightly reduced price. The second would be moving Kapanen and hoping that Barabanov is ready to take that role at a reduced price. Doing so would give us a line-up of something like this:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov

Rielly-______
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

That roster has $6.4mil in cap space available for that RHD who is either signed in free agency or acquired from the Johnsson/Kapanen/Dermott trades. The cap space could go up or down slightly depending on if Petan or Agostino or Brooks takes that last forward spot instead of Korshkov, or if Lehtonen takes the 7D spot instead of Marincin.

Ideally, that defenceman doesn't come in at more than $5.5mil because then we could also have enough cap space to carry a 13th forward through what will likely be a pretty compressed schedule.

So TLDR there is a route to acquire another $5-6mil type defenceman that doesn't require us to blow up the top-4.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 11, 2020, 10:16:16 AM
Let's do a quick update on the team from the first post, which essentially represents the boring version of what next years team probably looks like:

Johnsson-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev*-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Robertson-Engvall-Barabanov

Rielly-Dermott*
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

Everyone in this line-up has a contract except for Mikheyev and Dermott. There's $2.7mil in cap space to split between the two. Let's say they both get pushed into short-term $1.25mil because of the flat cap.

That gives us $200k in cap space with a 21 man roster. No Spezza, and our defence looks kinda not great.

There's of course ways to create cap space here. With Robertson's emergence and the depth that provides on the left wing, a Johnsson trade feels pretty inevitable. So let's pop him out and replace him with Spezza (or someone else, but let's say Spezza) at $700k.

That gives us a 21 man roster with $2.9mil in cap space. We could do two things with that: sign Mikheyev and/or Dermott to longer and slightly more expensive deals. Or we could still strong-arm them into cheap deals and use the cap space to do something with our defence. One of Marincin or Liljegren would get bumped off the roster (other being the 7D) so that gives us about $3.5mil to spend on a (preferably) RHD.

There's still two more fairly simple ways to create some more space. First would be trading Dermott. The reasoning here would be any defenceman we sign would probably take that RHD spot alongside Rielly so Dermott would get bumped down to the 3rd pairing and ideally Liljegren is ready to take that role at a slightly reduced price. The second would be moving Kapanen and hoping that Barabanov is ready to take that role at a reduced price. Doing so would give us a line-up of something like this:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov

Rielly-______
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

That roster has $6.4mil in cap space available for that RHD who is either signed in free agency or acquired from the Johnsson/Kapanen/Dermott trades. The cap space could go up or down slightly depending on if Petan or Agostino or Brooks takes that last forward spot instead of Korshkov, or if Lehtonen takes the 7D spot instead of Marincin.

Ideally, that defenceman doesn't come in at more than $5.5mil because then we could also have enough cap space to carry a 13th forward through what will likely be a pretty compressed schedule.

So TLDR there is a route to acquire another $5-6mil type defenceman that doesn't require us to blow up the top-4.
Don't forget about Mikko Lehtonen, who can play both right and left D, that the Leafs signed what seems like years ago. He may factor into the D. I do agree though that one or both of Johnnson/Kappy will probably be gone. I think if Dubas could trade Nylander for say a Dumba type, he will. Not sure Dumba is the answer but he'd help.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 10:18:51 AM
Don't forget about Mikko Lehtonen, who can play both right and left D, that the Leafs signed what seems like years ago. He may factor into the D. I do agree though that one or both of Johnnson/Kappy will probably be gone. I think if Dubas could trade Nylander for say a Dumba type, he will. Not sure Dumba is the answer but he'd help.

Yeah I made a quick mention of him at the end. If he makes the team I'd imagine it's more at the expense of Liljegren (or maybe they rotate) so I don't think it'll change the fact that the Leafs need someone to play the right side with Rielly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 10:20:04 AM
As for Dumba, he's just a different Barrie. Not the answer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on August 11, 2020, 10:26:14 AM
Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly (https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator)
Dermott, Travis   LD   $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, Frédérik   C   $700,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Malgin, Denis   RW, C   $750,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Mikheyev, Ilya   LW, RW   $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?

Narrator: he did not
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on August 11, 2020, 10:28:53 AM
I'm not sure how the KHL loans work (Lehtonen, Korshkov, presumably Barabanov and possibly even Mikheyev) in terms of timing. When the NHL training camps boot up again in December (if at all), do they just boogie back to Toronto or do they have to play out the seasons in the K?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 10:32:33 AM
I'm not sure how the KHL loans work (Lehtonen, Korshkov, presumably Barabanov and possibly even Mikheyev) in terms of timing. When the NHL training camps boot up again in December (if at all), do they just boogie back to Toronto or do they have to play out the seasons in the K?

There's no way the Leafs would have allowed those loans if they didn't come with clauses that trigger their return when camps start. In the case of Lehtonen it would literally mean they signed him for nothing since he's scheduled to be a UFA in 21/22.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 11, 2020, 10:36:27 AM
Don't forget about Mikko Lehtonen, who can play both right and left D, that the Leafs signed what seems like years ago. He may factor into the D. I do agree though that one or both of Johnnson/Kappy will probably be gone. I think if Dubas could trade Nylander for say a Dumba type, he will. Not sure Dumba is the answer but he'd help.

Yeah I made a quick mention of him at the end. If he makes the team I'd imagine it's more at the expense of Liljegren (or maybe they rotate) so I don't think it'll change the fact that the Leafs need someone to play the right side with Rielly.
Sorry I missed him at the end there. And I don't know enough about Dumba so thx for that. We don't need another Barrie. I think you've got it pretty much lined up except if the Leafs sign Spezza, it will cost them 725K because I think the minimum salary increases or was that also changed recently?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on August 11, 2020, 10:42:19 AM
I'm not sure how the KHL loans work (Lehtonen, Korshkov, presumably Barabanov and possibly even Mikheyev) in terms of timing. When the NHL training camps boot up again in December (if at all), do they just boogie back to Toronto or do they have to play out the seasons in the K?

There's no way the Leafs would have allowed those loans if they didn't come with clauses that trigger their return when camps start. In the case of Lehtonen it would literally mean they signed him for nothing since he's scheduled to be a UFA in 21/22.

That's what I assume, but also... KHL. I do think you're right.

I think you've got it pretty much lined up except if the Leafs sign Spezza, it will cost them 725K because I think the minimum salary increases or was that also changed recently?

Minimum salary for this coming season is 700k. The season after is 750k.
The 725 coming to mind is how Dubas/Pridham re-sign depth at multiple years spanning these minimum salary bumps at league min each year. 700 + 750 = 725 AAV
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 10:45:02 AM
That's what I assume, but also... KHL. I do think you're right.

If the KHL decides to break the agreement that they honour each others contracts that's probably gonna hurt them a lot more than it hurts the NHL.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 11, 2020, 10:49:41 AM
Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly (https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator)
Dermott, Travis   LD   $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, Frédérik   C   $700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, Denis   RW, C   $750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, Ilya   LW, RW   $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?
Yup looks good to me. I think all but Dermott have Arb rights.


Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 11, 2020, 10:50:30 AM
I'm not sure how the KHL loans work (Lehtonen, Korshkov, presumably Barabanov and possibly even Mikheyev) in terms of timing. When the NHL training camps boot up again in December (if at all), do they just boogie back to Toronto or do they have to play out the seasons in the K?

There's no way the Leafs would have allowed those loans if they didn't come with clauses that trigger their return when camps start. In the case of Lehtonen it would literally mean they signed him for nothing since he's scheduled to be a UFA in 21/22.

That's what I assume, but also... KHL. I do think you're right.

I think you've got it pretty much lined up except if the Leafs sign Spezza, it will cost them 725K because I think the minimum salary increases or was that also changed recently?

Minimum salary for this coming season is 700k. The season after is 750k.
The 725 coming to mind is how Dubas/Pridham re-sign depth at multiple years spanning these minimum salary bumps at league min each year. 700 + 750 = 725 AAV
Thanks Herman. That 725 stuck in my head makes sense now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 11:07:43 AM
If the Leafs decide to go the UFA route to acquire a defenceman, the 4 options would probably be: Brodie, Tanev, DeMelo, and Hamonic. None of them are all-stars, but they all have reputations of being fairly reliable defencemen and would probably come in at a range of $5.5-4mil or so.

Brodie would be at the top of the list I imagine as the Leafs apparently had a deal in place to acquire him last year but Kadri nixed it with his NTC. He's actually a left-handed shot but has a long history of playing the right side, particularily alongside Mark Giordano so him playing on the right of Rielly would seem like a pretty easy transition for him. There seems to be a reasonable expectation that he'll test the market and I could see him getting a Muzzin-like contract.

Tanev would be next on the list and I could see him getting about $5mil as well but there's probably a higher likelihood he'll re-sign with Vancouver. He's a right-handed shot that I would have loved if the Leafs acquired a few years ago but despite being the same age as Brodie his injury history and style of play make me more weary about how he'll perform in the next few years.

DeMelo and Hamonic would both be a small level below the other two I think and would probably come in closer to $4mil. Again both are guys I've talked about acquiring in the past: DeMelo more recently and Hamonic more a few years ago. Hamonic's game seems to have dropped a little since leaving the Islanders so if he's the guy the Leafs get I think it'd have to be on a short-term contract to see if he can rebound.

There's one other pretty BIG wildcard option but we still don't really know if he's even interested in playing next season so I'll keep him off the list... for now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 11:14:33 AM
Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly (https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator)
Dermott, Travis   LD   $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, Frédérik   C   $700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, Denis   RW, C   $750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, Ilya   LW, RW   $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?

If Malgin and Gauthier are smart they don't take a penny over $700k since it will make them easier to fit under the cap, otherwise their chances of being on the Marlies go up.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 11:22:55 AM
So combining all my scattered thoughts from today, this is what a team next year could conceivably look like:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov
Malgin

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Lehtonen
Liljegren

Andersen
Campbell

With my numbers (Brodie @ 5.5, Mikheyev @ 1.25, Spezza/Malgin @ 0.7) this line-up has $3,134 in cap space.

We keep the big-4, our defence gets better, and we get a handful of draft picks/futures from Dermott/Kapanen/Johnsson to bolster our now entirely depleted prospect group.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: louisstamos on August 11, 2020, 11:23:05 AM
There's one other pretty BIG wildcard option but we still don't really know if he's even interested in playing next season so I'll keep him off the list... for now.

He's the one I'm most interested in, even though if he even wanted to play it would be a kind of high risk move after the injury he had.  That said - you don't make an omelette without cracking a few eggs...
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Groundskeeper Willie on August 11, 2020, 11:26:13 AM
Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly (https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator)
Dermott, TravisLD$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, FrédérikC$700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, DenisRW, C$750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, IlyaLW, RW$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?
How does Malgin's QA go down from his salary this year?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Groundskeeper Willie on August 11, 2020, 11:31:26 AM


So combining all my scattered thoughts from today, this is what a team next year could conceivably look like:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov
Malgin

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Lehtonen
Liljegren

Andersen
Campbell

With my numbers (Brodie @ 5.5, Mikheyev @ 1.25, Spezza/Malgin @ 0.7) this line-up has $3,134 in cap space.

We keep the big-4, our defence gets better, and we get a handful of draft picks/futures from Dermott/Kapanen/Johnsson to bolster our now entirely depleted prospect group.

Scoring depth would be a huge concern there, especially if Marner or Nylander get hurt. But options are limited.

I wonder if the bargain basement options this year are going to be more plentiful than usual with the flat cap. Might be a good idea to try and keep a spot open for somebody that didn't get a good deal and needs a cheap one year contract on a team where they might get a lot of points.

What about trading Kerfoot and signing Erik Huala? You might be able to get him for a million less, but I don't know enough about him as a player to say if he's good enough though
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on August 11, 2020, 11:34:42 AM
Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly (https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator)
Dermott, TravisLD$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, FrédérikC$700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, DenisRW, C$750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, IlyaLW, RW$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?
How does Malgin's QA go down from his salary this year?

I pasted Gauthier's into Malgin's and vice versa is how :)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 11:40:28 AM
Scoring depth would be a huge concern there, especially if Marner or Nylander get hurt. But options are limited.

I wonder if the bargain basement options this year are going to be more plentiful than usual with the flat cap. Might be a good idea to try and keep a spot open for somebody that didn't get a good deal and needs a cheap one year contract on a team where they might get a lot of points.

What about trading Kerfoot and signing Erik Huala? You might be able to get him for a million less, but I don't know enough about him as a player to say if he's good enough though

You're not wrong about the scoring depth, but it was an issue this season too so I mean even if it's on par with that at least we'll be paying less for it.

As for a bargain basement option, it's definitely something we should be keeping our eyes on and given Dubas' history there I could see it happening. In that case he would probably take Korshkov's ($925k) spot on the team/ledger.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on August 11, 2020, 11:43:47 AM
If the Leafs decide to go the UFA route to acquire a defenceman, the 4 options would probably be: Brodie, Tanev, DeMelo, and Hamonic. None of them are all-stars, but they all have reputations of being fairly reliable defencemen and would probably come in at a range of $5.5-4mil or so.

Brodie would be at the top of the list I imagine as the Leafs apparently had a deal in place to acquire him last year but Kadri nixed it with his NTC. He's actually a left-handed shot but has a long history of playing the right side, particularily alongside Mark Giordano so him playing on the right of Rielly would seem like a pretty easy transition for him. There seems to be a reasonable expectation that he'll test the market and I could see him getting a Muzzin-like contract.

Tanev would be next on the list and I could see him getting about $5mil as well but there's probably a higher likelihood he'll re-sign with Vancouver. He's a right-handed shot that I would have loved if the Leafs acquired a few years ago but despite being the same age as Brodie his injury history and style of play make me more weary about how he'll perform in the next few years.

DeMelo and Hamonic would both be a small level below the other two I think and would probably come in closer to $4mil. Again both are guys I've talked about acquiring in the past: DeMelo more recently and Hamonic more a few years ago. Hamonic's game seems to have dropped a little since leaving the Islanders so if he's the guy the Leafs get I think it'd have to be on a short-term contract to see if he can rebound.

There's one other pretty BIG wildcard option but we still don't really know if he's even interested in playing next season so I'll keep him off the list... for now.

Buff.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 11:44:26 AM
Buff.

I was actually talking about Marincin.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 11:47:09 AM
So that was my somewhat subdued version of armchair-GM'ing. If I was to get a little bit crazier my offseason would include an Andersen trade to re-stock the cupboard even more than we already did with the Dermott/Johnsson/Kapanen trades and a 4-year, $5mil deal for Robin Lehner. Cap projections remain the same.

Nothing super against Freddy, this is just about asset management and having a guy like Lehner who I think is on par if not slightly better than him available for the same price. This would also signify a bigger shakeup move in the locker room than ditching that trio would be.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on August 11, 2020, 12:01:05 PM
Buff.

I was actually talking about Marincin.

Same caliber. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 11, 2020, 12:56:42 PM
So that was my somewhat subdued version of armchair-GM'ing. If I was to get a little bit crazier my offseason would include an Andersen trade to re-stock the cupboard even more than we already did with the Dermott/Johnsson/Kapanen trades and a 4-year, $5mil deal for Robin Lehner. Cap projections remain the same.

Nothing super against Freddy, this is just about asset management and having a guy like Lehner who I think is on par if not slightly better than him available for the same price. This would also signify a bigger shakeup move in the locker room than ditching that trio would be.
I would do the trade Freddy and sign Lehner deal. Maybe Dubas goes after Matt Murray, who I'm not sold on?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bullfrog on August 11, 2020, 01:05:26 PM
Adam Larsson?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 11, 2020, 01:12:02 PM
Hey Carlton — a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 11, 2020, 01:14:02 PM
Who you giving up for Larsson?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 01:15:25 PM
Hey Carlton — a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 11, 2020, 01:18:47 PM
Hey Carlton — a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.

Probably a lot of the boards could be consolidated, TBH.  Gone are the days when we would have 200-300 people tuned in to the GDT in the playoffs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 01:19:53 PM
Hey Carlton — a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.

Probably a lot of the boards could be consolidated, TBH.  Gone are the days when we would have 200-300 people tuned in to the GDT in the playoffs.

You don't think the Poll Booth sub board is gonna make a comeback?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 11, 2020, 01:29:17 PM
Hey Carlton — a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.

Probably a lot of the boards could be consolidated, TBH.  Gone are the days when we would have 200-300 people tuned in to the GDT in the playoffs.

You don't think the Poll Booth sub board is gonna make a comeback?

Heh.  I hate to say it, but you could probably condense down to a Leafs Board, an NHL Board, and Everything Else Board.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bullfrog on August 11, 2020, 01:41:31 PM
Who you giving up for Larsson?

Taylor Hall?  ;)

Honestly not sure. I'd obviously prefer Nurse, but can't imagine he's going anywhere. Rielly for Nurse might be interesting. Rielly's someone who would probably thrive with Edmonton. We'd need a good powerplay option though.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 11, 2020, 02:02:45 PM
Adam Larsson?

I'd prefer the UFAs that I mentioned because I think they're all better (maybe not Hamonic) and they won't mean we give up assets for someone with 1 year left on his deal. If we strike out on all those guys he'd be someone I check in on yeah but the price could be an issue. Kapanen for Larsson has been brought up a lot but at this point in their contracts Kappy has the clear edge in value I think.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Stebro on August 11, 2020, 02:23:52 PM
If the leafs want to get someone cheap they could go for a european player. One that comes to mind is Simon Bertilsson, he will hit people all the time and he can score, however he's been injured a lot due to his physical style of play, but it might be worth the risk.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bullfrog on August 11, 2020, 07:34:05 PM
Adam Larsson?

I'd prefer the UFAs that I mentioned because I think they're all better (maybe not Hamonic) and they won't mean we give up assets for someone with 1 year left on his deal. If we strike out on all those guys he'd be someone I check in on yeah but the price could be an issue. Kapanen for Larsson has been brought up a lot but at this point in their contracts Kappy has the clear edge in value I think.

UFA will probably be more expensive unless you're going for a less talented player.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: wnc096 on August 11, 2020, 07:36:38 PM
I would like them to trade for Bennett on Calgary.  Buying low on him after an 8 goal season.  His give a sh*t meter is something this team needs, and i think he has a more to give.  Id even trade kapanen for him straight up
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Goaliedave31 on August 12, 2020, 08:52:05 AM
Let's do a quick update on the team from the first post, which essentially represents the boring version of what next years team probably looks like:

Johnsson-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev*-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Robertson-Engvall-Barabanov

Rielly-Dermott*
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

Everyone in this line-up has a contract except for Mikheyev and Dermott. There's $2.7mil in cap space to split between the two. Let's say they both get pushed into short-term $1.25mil because of the flat cap.

That gives us $200k in cap space with a 21 man roster. No Spezza, and our defence looks kinda not great.

There's of course ways to create cap space here. With Robertson's emergence and the depth that provides on the left wing, a Johnsson trade feels pretty inevitable. So let's pop him out and replace him with Spezza (or someone else, but let's say Spezza) at $700k.

That gives us a 21 man roster with $2.9mil in cap space. We could do two things with that: sign Mikheyev and/or Dermott to longer and slightly more expensive deals. Or we could still strong-arm them into cheap deals and use the cap space to do something with our defence. One of Marincin or Liljegren would get bumped off the roster (other being the 7D) so that gives us about $3.5mil to spend on a (preferably) RHD.

There's still two more fairly simple ways to create some more space. First would be trading Dermott. The reasoning here would be any defenceman we sign would probably take that RHD spot alongside Rielly so Dermott would get bumped down to the 3rd pairing and ideally Liljegren is ready to take that role at a slightly reduced price. The second would be moving Kapanen and hoping that Barabanov is ready to take that role at a reduced price. Doing so would give us a line-up of something like this:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov

Rielly-______
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

That roster has $6.4mil in cap space available for that RHD who is either signed in free agency or acquired from the Johnsson/Kapanen/Dermott trades. The cap space could go up or down slightly depending on if Petan or Agostino or Brooks takes that last forward spot instead of Korshkov, or if Lehtonen takes the 7D spot instead of Marincin.

Ideally, that defenceman doesn't come in at more than $5.5mil because then we could also have enough cap space to carry a 13th forward through what will likely be a pretty compressed schedule.

So TLDR there is a route to acquire another $5-6mil type defenceman that doesn't require us to blow up the top-4.
Don't forget Lehtonen. He will probably be in the top 4.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 12, 2020, 08:59:33 AM
UFA will probably be more expensive unless you're going for a less talented player.

Generally speaking that's of course true but like I said I think most of the guys I mentioned are better than Larsson anyway. Brodie and Tanev would likely get more than Larsson's $4.16mil but I think they're both better players (at least when healthy in Tanev's case) and I feel like the Muzzin extension set a comparable for both of them. And of course that was signed pre-flat cap news so who knows how that'll effect everything. A guy like DeMelo would probably sign for about what Larsson is at and I'd definitely prefer DeMelo without even taking into consideration that Larsson would also cost assets to acquire.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on August 12, 2020, 09:11:55 AM
I would like them to trade for Bennett on Calgary.  Buying low on him after an 8 goal season.  His give a sh*t meter is something this team needs, and i think he has a more to give.  Id even trade kapanen for him straight up

I'm not sure I see the reason why Toronto would do this:
Kapanen: is really dumb but can still pot 15-20 goals and PK; most valuable yet expendable trade chip towards defense
Bennett: tries really hard all the time but can only score 8 goals (10-15 really)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on August 12, 2020, 09:12:30 AM
UFA will probably be more expensive unless you're going for a less talented player.

Generally speaking that's of course true but like I said I think most of the guys I mentioned are better than Larsson anyway. Brodie and Tanev would likely get more than Larsson's $4.16mil but I think they're both better players (at least when healthy in Tanev's case) and I feel like the Muzzin extension set a comparable for both of them. And of course that was signed pre-flat cap news so who knows how that'll effect everything. A guy like DeMelo would probably sign for about what Larsson is at and I'd definitely prefer DeMelo without even taking into consideration that Larsson would also cost assets to acquire.

Where does Mackenzie Weegar sit on your list?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 12, 2020, 09:50:50 AM
Where does Mackenzie Weegar sit on your list?

He's probably roughly in the same boat as DeMelo. I don't think either would make as much of an impact as Brodie (who the more I think about the more I really hope the Leafs pull off my plan to get him. Also with the obvious benefit of hindsight it's really a shame Kadri nixed that deal to acquire him last year). Weegar would cost some sort of asset to acquire, but I'd imagine DeMelo's AAV will be higher (Weeger is currently a RFA). On an ideal defence DeMelo and Weegar would both probably be a teams 2RHD.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 12, 2020, 09:54:26 AM
Don't forget Lehtonen. He will probably be in the top 4.

Yeah the noise around him has quieted down since his signing because a lot has happened since then obviously but he did have quite a bit of fan fare back then. I still think the best case scenario, at least in his 1st season, is for him to really stabilize the 3rd pairing if Liljegren can't. Expecting him to play in the top 4 with Rielly seems like it's setting both him and the team up for failure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 12, 2020, 11:14:01 AM
Don't forget Lehtonen. He will probably be in the top 4.

Yeah the noise around him has quieted down since his signing because a lot has happened since then obviously but he did have quite a bit of fan fare back then. I still think the best case scenario, at least in his 1st season, is for him to really stabilize the 3rd pairing if Liljegren can't. Expecting him to play in the top 4 with Rielly seems like it's setting both him and the team up for failure.
I would agree. Temper expectations on him for now and lets see what he can do. Hopefully he can develop into a top 4 guy.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on August 12, 2020, 02:25:56 PM
I feel like it needs to be said that Carlton mentioned Lehtonen in his post.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 12, 2020, 03:22:14 PM
Friedman's 31 Thoughts reminded me that Joe Thornton is a UFA...
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Groundskeeper Willie on August 12, 2020, 04:42:45 PM
Friedman's 31 Thoughts reminded me that Joe Thornton is a UFA...
League minimum fourth line of Marleau-Thornton-Spezza next year?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: wnc096 on August 12, 2020, 05:30:27 PM
I would like them to trade for Bennett on Calgary.  Buying low on him after an 8 goal season.  His give a sh*t meter is something this team needs, and i think he has a more to give.  Id even trade kapanen for him straight up

I'm not sure I see the reason why Toronto would do this:
Kapanen: is really dumb but can still pot 15-20 goals and PK; most valuable yet expendable trade chip towards defense
Bennett: tries really hard all the time but can only score 8 goals (10-15 really)

bennett has 10 points in his last 14 playoff games

kapanen has 4 points in his last 19 playoff games.

Bennett actually elevates his game in the playoffs....he's the Anti-leaf
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on August 12, 2020, 06:10:10 PM
Friedman's 31 Thoughts reminded me that Joe Thornton is a UFA...
League minimum fourth line of Marleau-Thornton-Spezza next year?
The Walker Cane line.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Goaliedave31 on August 13, 2020, 08:00:03 AM
I feel like it needs to be said that Carlton mentioned Lehtonen in his post.
He did for sure and I missed that because he only mentioned him as an afterthought, a possible #7 D. I'm pretty sure he's going to be expected to be top 6 if not 4.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on August 13, 2020, 09:10:10 AM
I feel like it needs to be said that Carlton mentioned Lehtonen in his post.
He did for sure and I missed that because he only mentioned him as an afterthought, a possible #7 D. I'm pretty sure he's going to be expected to be top 6 if not 4.

I think putting those expectations on him would be a mistake.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: RedLeaf on August 14, 2020, 08:06:03 AM
Anyone do a Murray for Andersen one-for-one trade?

https://www.sportsfanpanel.net/post/report-giant-trade-coming-between-the-toronto-maple-leafs-and-pittsburgh-penguins
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Andy on August 14, 2020, 08:51:30 AM
So the "Report of a giant trade brewing" essentially is just Nick Kypreos spit-balling an idea... cool cool cool...

Anyway, the Seattle expansion draft in 2021 kind of complicates any deal like this. If we were to trade Andersen it should probably be for pick(s) and/or prospect(s) unless you keep him for one final run and let him leave as an FA. Acquiring Murray and signing him ensures that Campbell is gone and I'd rather just see what the latter can do as a starter, then.

Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on August 14, 2020, 09:00:38 AM
Hard no to Murray for Freddie.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 14, 2020, 09:18:26 AM
Not sure if Pittsburgh's cap could handle it, but if they say signed Murray to a 1-year, $4mil contract and retained like 50% of it then I might be interested. A platoon system of Murray and Campbell could be decent and we save $3mil off the cap. Murray would then be a UFA after that though.

This trade really only works if we have a solid plan to spend that extra $3mil so it's more like Andersen for Murray and like DeMelo or 60% of Brodie.

Not sure this would be preferable to my Lehner plan but it's an option. Would mean we could keep one of Kapanen/Johnsson for at least another season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: . on August 14, 2020, 10:09:10 AM
Hard no to Murray for Freddie.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: wnc096 on August 14, 2020, 10:54:39 AM
So the "Report of a giant trade brewing" essentially is just Nick Kypreos spit-balling an idea... cool cool cool...

Anyway, the Seattle expansion draft in 2021 kind of complicates any deal like this. If we were to trade Andersen it should probably be for pick(s) and/or prospect(s) unless you keep him for one final run and let him leave as an FA. Acquiring Murray and signing him ensures that Campbell is gone and I'd rather just see what the latter can do as a starter, then.

Kypreos also reported that Shea Weber was going to retire in Feb...so there's that

?lang=en
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 14, 2020, 11:37:26 AM
Hard no to Murray for Freddie.

Murray's .899 Sv% in 38 games this season was definitely bad but know what else was bad? Andersen's .901 Sv% in 31 games since December 1st this season.

I don't really think the gap between them is that big. They are both capable of highs and lows. Murray had the 10th best save percentage in the league last season (possibly 7th or higher depending on where your GP cut off is), slightly higher than Andersen's. And it's not like he's playing behind a stifling defence either.

I agree that straight up it's probably a no for me, but not exactly a "hard no"/ out of the question proposal. And if Pittsburgh's willing to negotiate either in terms of retained salary or added picks I'd definitely be listening.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on August 14, 2020, 11:48:24 AM
Hard no to Murray for Freddie.
My son would put his Leaf jerseys in the trash.  Hates Murray for some reason.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on August 15, 2020, 12:05:47 AM
I mean maybe you finally buy low on a player and get contract value instead of high on a more proven asset. I think we are forgetting that truly sure bets are extremely expensive on the cap and we've got to take some risks buying low if we want to see some value on our contracts. Players generally don't come cheap if they are a 0 risk commodity.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 10, 2020, 10:12:39 AM
A collection of articles about defensemen the Leafs should pursue via trade or free agency:
https://theleafsnation.com/2020/09/08/maple-leafs-trade-targets-defencemen/
https://theleafsnation.com/2020/09/05/5-defensemen-not-named-alex-pietrangelo-that-the-leafs-might-consider-signing/
https://theathletic.com/2027112/2020/09/08/trade-targets-part-1-scouring-the-west-for-the-defenceman-the-leafs-need/
https://theathletic.com/2037216/2020/09/09/trade-targets-part-2-scouring-the-east-for-the-defenceman-the-leafs-need/
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/maple-leafs-15-intriguing-trade-targets-defence/
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 10, 2020, 01:59:17 PM
I don't really get the talk that Ekblad could be available because the Panthers have to cut salary. They already have one of the lowest payrolls in the league for next season as things stand right now. Sure, there's only 6 forwards signed but the rest of their line-up can be filled with lower salary guys if they need to stay within a budget. Having Hoffman and Dadanov walk as UFAs clears out almost $10mil from last seasons budget.

edit: also he makes just $6mil this upcoming season, $4mil of which is paid out as a signing bonus. Assuming that was paid already on July 1st like most signing bonuses are, he's only due another $2mil (minus whatever he's gonna lose on escrow too). There's just no way trading him now makes any sense from a "budget" standpoint.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on September 10, 2020, 02:35:19 PM
I don't really get the talk that Ekblad could be available because the Panthers have to cut salary. They already have one of the lowest payrolls in the league for next season as things stand right now. Sure, there's only 6 forwards signed but the rest of their line-up can be filled with lower salary guys if they need to stay within a budget. Having Hoffman and Dadanov walk as UFAs clears out almost $10mil from last seasons budget.

edit: also he makes just $6mil this upcoming season, $4mil of which is paid out as a signing bonus. Assuming that was paid already on July 1st like most signing bonuses are, he's only due another $2mil (minus whatever he's gonna lose on escrow too). There's just no way trading him now makes any sense from a "budget" standpoint.

I'm hoping the front office isn't as rational as you  ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 10, 2020, 03:15:03 PM
There's a chance.

Which one of the Leafs is the most lizard-like?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on September 10, 2020, 05:27:28 PM
Larry T
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 10, 2020, 09:55:26 PM
There's a chance.

Which one of the Leafs is the most lizard-like?
(https://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Vince-McMahon-Falls-Out-Of-His-Chair-For-a-WWE-Diva.gif)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Dappleganger on September 11, 2020, 03:37:26 PM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 11, 2020, 05:29:31 PM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

Who knows? Not sure you're getting a Parayko for that kind of package but again it depends on the team you're dealing with and if they need to shed salary. Some teams will have an internal cap set because of lost revenues from covid. Leafs may be able to take advantage here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 11, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Groundskeeper Willie on September 12, 2020, 12:22:06 AM
Is anyone else worried about Pietrangelo possibly signing with the Bruins if Krug walks? Boston might be more willing to break their internal pay structure for a true #1 dman
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on September 12, 2020, 08:29:41 AM
Is anyone else worried about Pietrangelo possibly signing with the Bruins if Krug walks? Boston might be more willing to break their internal pay structure for a true #1 dman

I think any team with cap space would at least kick the tires on Pietrangelo. 

I know he's a lefty, but Krug is interesting too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Andy on September 12, 2020, 09:36:19 AM
Is anyone else worried about Pietrangelo possibly signing with the Bruins if Krug walks? Boston might be more willing to break their internal pay structure for a true #1 dman

You know, Pietrangelo is going to be 31 when this deal starts. Locked in at, say, 9+ million over 6-7 years seems very risky to me, so I probably wouldn't mind at all if Boston replaced Krug with AP (Granted, the amount of WWE moves that Boston seemingly gets away with that has also allowed Chara to play into his late 50's may eliminate much of that risk).
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 12, 2020, 11:29:08 AM
:D
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: . on September 12, 2020, 01:04:18 PM
You know, Pietrangelo is going to be 31 when this deal starts. Locked in at, say, 9+ million over 6-7 years seems very risky to me,

Yeah, I think I'm kind of in this line of thinking. I would assume any deal Pietrangelo signs is going to have a NTC, so adding to the top-heavy cap team on a declining player is a heck of a risk the way the leafs are structured. They kind of made their bed with Tavares, not that I think it was necessarily a bad move, but it should take the leafs out of the running here from a managerial choice.

I'd really like to see them spend on some poor man's Muzzins. ie - Gudas/Dillon.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 12, 2020, 01:13:24 PM
Is anyone else worried about Pietrangelo possibly signing with the Bruins if Krug walks? Boston might be more willing to break their internal pay structure for a true #1 dman

I think any team with cap space would at least kick the tires on Pietrangelo. 

I know he's a lefty, but Krug is interesting too.
Not worried about Boston getting AP. I think he stays in St Louis. And a big no to Krug. Too much cash for what he brings.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 15, 2020, 10:11:19 AM
A collection of articles about defensemen the Leafs should pursue via trade or free agency:
https://theleafsnation.com/2020/09/08/maple-leafs-trade-targets-defencemen/
https://theleafsnation.com/2020/09/05/5-defensemen-not-named-alex-pietrangelo-that-the-leafs-might-consider-signing/
https://theathletic.com/2027112/2020/09/08/trade-targets-part-1-scouring-the-west-for-the-defenceman-the-leafs-need/
https://theathletic.com/2037216/2020/09/09/trade-targets-part-2-scouring-the-east-for-the-defenceman-the-leafs-need/
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/maple-leafs-15-intriguing-trade-targets-defence/

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2020/9/15/21428268/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-for-defenseman-colton-parayko-ryan-pulock-brett-pesce-and-more-options
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 15, 2020, 04:25:27 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Dappleganger on September 16, 2020, 12:39:58 AM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on September 16, 2020, 08:25:21 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
I really don't think we can afford him.  Our F depth will get crushed...
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 16, 2020, 08:37:05 AM
I really don't think we can afford him.  Our F depth will get crushed...

I guess there is one other option that involves removing a large-ish cap hit from our defence but nobody's going to like it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 16, 2020, 08:51:23 AM
I really don't think we can afford him.  Our F depth will get crushed...

I guess there is one other option that involves removing a large-ish cap hit from our defence but nobody's going to like it.

That's a DeMar DeRozan-level move. I wouldn't consider Pietrangelo a Kawhi-level player (is there even one in hockey?).
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 16, 2020, 09:06:07 AM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090

A) That's a tier or two below the player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul
B) Does anyone else play the game of 'which publication did the Score paraphrase?' when they see a link?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 16, 2020, 09:11:45 AM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090

A) That's a tier or two below the player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul

Value wise that might be pretty fair. I mean we're giving up 3 pretty good assets there but at the end of the day Dumba is the best one of the bunch. The problem is more he's not the type of player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul I think.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 16, 2020, 09:19:13 AM
Value wise that might be pretty fair. I mean we're giving up 3 pretty good assets there but at the end of the day Dumba is the best one of the bunch. The problem is more he's not the type of player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul I think.

I'd put Dumba at 2/3 of those listed pieces, not 3, but you're absolutely right the primary problem is he's not the type of player we should be targeting.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on September 16, 2020, 09:30:30 AM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090

A) That's a tier or two below the player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul
B) Does anyone else play the game of 'which publication did the Score paraphrase?' when they see a link?

If you can get Matt Dumba for a third line centre, a defenseman that can only crack the 3rd pairing, and a mid round 1st, you take it and run.

I think you're overvaluing Kerfoot and Dermott.

I also think the Leafs need to make some very bold moves this off-season, and can't afford not to trade some forward firepower for a 1st pairing rock.  I don't know if Matt Dumba is that guy, but Pietrangelo sure is.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 16, 2020, 09:51:16 AM
If you can get Matt Dumba for a third line centre, a defenseman that can only crack the 3rd pairing, and a mid round 1st, you take it and run.

I think you're overvaluing Kerfoot and Dermott.

I also think the Leafs need to make some very bold moves this off-season, and can't afford not to trade some forward firepower for a 1st pairing rock.  I don't know if Matt Dumba is that guy, but Pietrangelo sure is.

Matt Dumba is basically a Tyson Barrie who played on a really good defensive team.

I think you are undervaluing Dermott and Kerfoot (and this year's 15th OA pick). Sure they are 3rd pair/line players in our current iteration, but they are also players who can actually move up the lineup (even to the top) for extended spells. We already saw clearly with Kapanen and Engvall, it is not a guarantee that a 3rd line player can hang with top-6 creativity. The Leafs have scoring depth issues at the bottom of the lineup already and also need to mitigate injury issues.

Travis Dermott's metrics in his first three full seasons also track very similarly to another former third-pair defenseman.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 16, 2020, 10:02:35 AM
If you can get Matt Dumba for a third line centre, a defenseman that can only crack the 3rd pairing, and a mid round 1st, you take it and run.

I think you're overvaluing Kerfoot and Dermott.

Man you're a better salesperson than that. We're talking about a versatile middle-6 forward who can play any position and in any situation who's locked into an affordable contract that you'd actually be paying less than sticker price for during the next 3 seasons. Then there's a defenceman who's just about to hit the prime of his career and step into a top-4 role on a lucky team. Lastly the same draft pick that was used to select HHOFers or future HHOFers such as Joe Sakic, Al MacInnis, Mike Bossy, and Erik Karlsson!
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 16, 2020, 10:26:25 AM
Even putting aside the fact that I don't think he's a good fit for the Leafs right now, acquiring Dumba is still a very risky move considering the season he's coming off of. If his arm is still an issue and a reason for him scoring at a 7-goal pace this season then that's pretty worrying.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on September 16, 2020, 10:36:23 AM
I really don't think we can afford him.  Our F depth will get crushed...

I guess there is one other option that involves removing a large-ish cap hit from our defence but nobody's going to like it.

That's a DeMar DeRozan-level move. I wouldn't consider Pietrangelo a Kawhi-level player (is there even one in hockey?).
Are we talking about moving Rielly?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on September 16, 2020, 10:38:36 AM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090

A) That's a tier or two below the player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul
B) Does anyone else play the game of 'which publication did the Score paraphrase?' when they see a link?

If you can get Matt Dumba for a third line centre, a defenseman that can only crack the 3rd pairing, and a mid round 1st, you take it and run.

I think you're overvaluing Kerfoot and Dermott.

I also think the Leafs need to make some very bold moves this off-season, and can't afford not to trade some forward firepower for a 1st pairing rock.  I don't know if Matt Dumba is that guy, but Pietrangelo sure is.
I think you're really undervaluing Kerfoot here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 16, 2020, 12:31:36 PM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090

A) That's a tier or two below the player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul
B) Does anyone else play the game of 'which publication did the Score paraphrase?' when they see a link?

If you can get Matt Dumba for a third line centre, a defenseman that can only crack the 3rd pairing, and a mid round 1st, you take it and run.

I think you're overvaluing Kerfoot and Dermott.

I also think the Leafs need to make some very bold moves this off-season, and can't afford not to trade some forward firepower for a 1st pairing rock.  I don't know if Matt Dumba is that guy, but Pietrangelo sure is.
I think you're really undervaluing Kerfoot here.
I agree. Kerfoot's game really improved in the bubble. Let's not forget that last year was only his 3rd in the NHL. Some players take a little longer and I think he's just starting to come into his own. Dermott's the same for me. Adding in a 1st also for Dumba, is just too much. I'd rather they sign Barrie for cheap and have him on the bottom pairing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on September 17, 2020, 02:19:56 PM
As good a breakdown of Dumba's game as any I've seen.

I think I'd still rather try Travis Dermott out on the right side with a full 'summer' and training camp to build it up.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on September 17, 2020, 02:27:16 PM
So what kind of right-shot defenceman can the Leafs get for Kerfoot + Dermott + 15th pick?

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090

A) That's a tier or two below the player we'd hope to get for such a heavy trade haul
B) Does anyone else play the game of 'which publication did the Score paraphrase?' when they see a link?

If you can get Matt Dumba for a third line centre, a defenseman that can only crack the 3rd pairing, and a mid round 1st, you take it and run.

I think you're overvaluing Kerfoot and Dermott.

I also think the Leafs need to make some very bold moves this off-season, and can't afford not to trade some forward firepower for a 1st pairing rock.  I don't know if Matt Dumba is that guy, but Pietrangelo sure is.
Could be a Dumba thing to do! 8)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Dappleganger on September 17, 2020, 02:33:26 PM
Even putting aside the fact that I don't think he's a good fit for the Leafs right now, acquiring Dumba is still a very risky move considering the season he's coming off of. If his arm is still an issue and a reason for him scoring at a 7-goal pace this season then that's pretty worrying.

Dumba had 3 goals, and 4 points less than Kerfoot last year. Dumba has also broken the 50 point barrier previously in his career something Kerfoot has never done. He's also the same ago as Kerfoot, 26 y/o.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 01, 2020, 05:03:04 PM
I'm slowly talking myself into something silly:

To CAR: Andersen
To TOR: Hamilton

Cap hits are nearly the same, term is exactly the same, but Andersen is owed only 1M in salary (20% of cap hit), while Hamilton is owed 6M (104% of cap hit). The money they spent on our 13th OA pick can be recouped here. Hamilton is going to be expensive the year after and the market will be set (high) when Pietrangelo signs his deal. I think they want to preserve Slavin as their high-water mark on defense (5.3M).

They need goaltending more than we need a top pairing RD, believe it or not. It'll set up their expansion draft roster better to only have Slavin, Skjei, and Pesce to protect.

There might be additional packaging around the core of this trade (Johnsson, Liljegren, Trocheck) as goaltender value is a bit soft.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 01, 2020, 05:27:45 PM
I'm slowly talking myself into something silly:

To CAR: Andersen
To TOR: Hamilton

Cap hits are nearly the same, term is exactly the same, but Andersen is owed only 1M in salary (20% of cap hit), while Hamilton is owed 6M (104% of cap hit). The money they spent on our 13th OA pick can be recouped here. Hamilton is going to be expensive the year after and the market will be set (high) when Pietrangelo signs his deal. I think they want to preserve Slavin as their high-water mark on defense (5.3M).

They need goaltending more than we need a top pairing RD, believe it or not. It'll set up their expansion draft roster better to only have Slavin, Skjei, and Pesce to protect.

There might be additional packaging around the core of this trade (Johnsson, Liljegren, Trocheck) as goaltender value is a bit soft.
Cap hit almost the same? 750K isn't the same, that's a player. Why would we do this?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 01, 2020, 05:42:49 PM
To be honest I thought the first feedback would be that Carolina hangs up the phone (or types lol in the text, whatever the format), not why would Toronto add a league min to the cap for a 1RD lol
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 01, 2020, 05:52:53 PM
To be honest I thought the first feedback would be that Carolina hangs up the phone (or types lol in the text, whatever the format), not why would Toronto add a league min to the cap for a 1RD lol
and no goalie
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 01, 2020, 05:56:40 PM
To be honest I thought the first feedback would be that Carolina hangs up the phone (or types lol in the text, whatever the format), not why would Toronto add a league min to the cap for a 1RD lol
and no goalie

Um not every trade solves all the problems at once though...
how is this an auto nope but shedding forward depth chasing AP is a woohoo haha
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 01, 2020, 06:05:16 PM
To be honest I thought the first feedback would be that Carolina hangs up the phone (or types lol in the text, whatever the format), not why would Toronto add a league min to the cap for a 1RD lol

?o?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 01, 2020, 06:11:03 PM
You could probably get Carolina to retain some cap hit on Hamilton because they would still be coming out ahead in terms of dollars paid. Say they retained 1/3 of his contract... the Leafs AAV for him would be about $3.8mil and the Hurricanes would still need to pay him $2mil of his salary. That plus Andersen's $1mil still saves them $3mil in cash. Are those saving worth it to them? Who knows.

In terms of just hockey value though it's definitely Carolina saying no, at least straight up. Let's not forget Hamilton was in the Norris conversation this season prior to his injury. I know they're super deep on the right side and something has to give but I don't think they'll trade him for a goalie like this.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 01, 2020, 07:53:04 PM
Would the hockey value differential translate to the value of not pushing for a salary retention?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 02, 2020, 02:02:18 PM
To be honest I thought the first feedback would be that Carolina hangs up the phone (or types lol in the text, whatever the format), not why would Toronto add a league min to the cap for a 1RD lol
Well they might just hang it up. I think if the Leafs wanted to do a deal for Hamilton, they'd have to know they could sign him to an extension. Now could they sign him for around 8 mill per going forward? If so, I'd do it. I wouldn't trade for him for 1 year. Now, would you trade Nylander(+), if needed,  for Hamilton? We know it would cost Freddie +. What do you think it would take?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2020, 05:14:18 PM

Well can't blame em for trying.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 03, 2020, 05:30:50 PM
Circle back later. Andersen is the best available keeper
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Deebo on October 03, 2020, 05:38:23 PM
Circle back later. Andersen is the best available keeper

I am really curious to see what management's plan to replace him is.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 03, 2020, 05:55:27 PM
Circle back later. Andersen is the best available keeper

I am really curious to see what management's plan to replace him is.
1st and a prospect to Yotes for Kuemper.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 03, 2020, 05:59:02 PM
Nah, go cheaper. And Keefe is committing the team to a defensive structure of all 5 players on ice.

Two year deal for Lundqvist. 41-41 split with Campbell (literally every other game) barring injury.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 03, 2020, 06:01:36 PM
Circle back later. Andersen is the best available keeper
Dollar for skill wise yes. Best goalie(s) though, I would say Kuemper/Rask are at the top with Freddie, Markstrom just below.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 03, 2020, 06:07:23 PM
Nah, go cheaper. And Keefe is committing the team to a defensive structure of all 5 players on ice.

Two year deal for Lundqvist. 41-41 split with Campbell (literally every other game) barring injury.
Leafs need a guy as good as Freddie or we might not make the playoffs. Can't cheap out at the most valuable position.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 03, 2020, 06:13:10 PM
Leafs basically made the playoffs if the season didn?t pause with Andersen playing extremely ass and getting 1 win out of Hutch. We will be okay.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 03, 2020, 07:20:35 PM
Leafs basically made the playoffs if the season didn?t pause with Andersen playing extremely ass and getting 1 win out of Hutch. We will be okay.
I'd rather not take that chance again lol. We're going to find out soon enough. Back to the Freddie for Hamilton..What do you think the Leafs would have to add to get it done? They want scoring. Johnsson, 1st????
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 04, 2020, 07:20:01 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2020/10/04/nhl-rumours-updates-on-alex-pietrangelo-dougie-hamilton-taylor-hall/

Quote
LeBrun on Dougie Hamilton?s status in Carolina:

He loves it in Carolina. He?s bounced around Boston and Calgary; he loves it in Carolina and has found his niche. He is the top dog there offensively on the backend. But he has a year left on his deal and he plays for an owner that doesn?t always open his wallet. Where they left things right now is that the Hurricanes do have interest in extending him, but both sides in that conversation have decided to let the market play out here over the next few weeks to see where guys like him fit with fresher comparables.

No one here has said this to me, but one of the comparables is going to be Alex Pietrangelo?s new contract.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Joe on October 05, 2020, 11:16:11 AM
I do not think this is going to happen, but the more I think about it the more I am warming up to a 1 or 2 year deal for Lundqvist if he can be gotten under 2 mil.

I am just getting Belfour vibes from this potential situation. Belfour was the best goalie I have ever seen play for the leafs the first 2 years he was here.

Anyway. I am rambling now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 05, 2020, 11:32:13 AM
I do not think this is going to happen, but the more I think about it the more I am warming up to a 1 or 2 year deal for Lundqvist if he can be gotten under 2 mil.

I am just getting Belfour vibes from this potential situation. Belfour was the best goalie I have ever seen play for the leafs the first 2 years he was here.

Anyway. I am rambling now.
Eddie was awesome. So technically sound. I'm leaning towards bringing Lundqvist in if we can parlay Freddie+ to get Hamilton or similar lol.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 05, 2020, 11:34:38 AM
The movement is growing...
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on October 05, 2020, 11:42:22 AM
I do not think this is going to happen, but the more I think about it the more I am warming up to a 1 or 2 year deal for Lundqvist if he can be gotten under 2 mil.

I am just getting Belfour vibes from this potential situation. Belfour was the best goalie I have ever seen play for the leafs the first 2 years he was here.

Anyway. I am rambling now.

The thing with Belfour is that he really only had one truly bad season before he joined the Leafs, and only a pair when he wasn't among the leaders in GSAA (goals saved above average) and GA% (Goals allowed relative to league average). For Lundqvist, we're looking at 4 straight seasons where he's been average or below in theses areas. I just don't see him having the brief renaissance Belfour did. The decline has been going for too long now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on October 05, 2020, 11:46:50 AM
I do not think this is going to happen, but the more I think about it the more I am warming up to a 1 or 2 year deal for Lundqvist if he can be gotten under 2 mil.

I am just getting Belfour vibes from this potential situation. Belfour was the best goalie I have ever seen play for the leafs the first 2 years he was here.

Anyway. I am rambling now.

The thing with Belfour is that he really only had one truly bad season before he joined the Leafs, and only a pair when he wasn't among the leaders in GSAA (goals saved above average) and GA% (Goals allowed relative to league average). For Lundqvist, we're looking at 4 straight seasons where he's been average or below in theses areas. I just don't see him having the brief renaissance Belfour did. The decline has been going for too long now.

Nah, he's just been unlucky.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 05, 2020, 11:57:37 AM
I do not think this is going to happen, but the more I think about it the more I am warming up to a 1 or 2 year deal for Lundqvist if he can be gotten under 2 mil.

I am just getting Belfour vibes from this potential situation. Belfour was the best goalie I have ever seen play for the leafs the first 2 years he was here.

Anyway. I am rambling now.

The thing with Belfour is that he really only had one truly bad season before he joined the Leafs, and only a pair when he wasn't among the leaders in GSAA (goals saved above average) and GA% (Goals allowed relative to league average). For Lundqvist, we're looking at 4 straight seasons where he's been average or below in theses areas. I just don't see him having the brief renaissance Belfour did. The decline has been going for too long now.

Nah, he's just been unlucky.
Hahaha,yeah that's it. I think some of us hope with a new team, he could turn it around. I don't think we're really expecting Eddie 2.0 because that's not happening here. It would be a huge gamble on any team to take on The King.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 05, 2020, 12:42:49 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Lundqvist's season only went off the rails once Shesterkin arrived and the Rangers had to carry 3 goalies. He only got 4 starts from that point on and had a .872 Sv% in 6 games. But prior to him being sidelined he was actually having that renaissance season.

No one's expecting him to be his Vezina self or even be a top-10 goalie, but the odds of him exceeding his value with something like a $2mil AAV seem pretty good to me. This guy isn't done. Whether it's with Toronto or not I think he'll be a fine option for a platoon system next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 05, 2020, 12:54:38 PM
MSG scorers make it a bit (read: very) difficult to parse Lundqvist's true performance value. I still like him as an option if he deigns it worthwhile to play in Canada with many of his fellow countrymen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 05, 2020, 01:16:17 PM
Unsubstantiated... a pretty effective depth defenseman/psychopath
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on October 05, 2020, 01:21:59 PM
Unsubstantiated... a pretty effective depth defenseman/psychopath

Seems totally legit. :P
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Rob on October 05, 2020, 01:22:06 PM
Unsubstantiated... a pretty effective depth defenseman/psychopath

Leafs need someone to get suspended at the most inopportune times.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 05, 2020, 01:27:32 PM
Unsubstantiated... a pretty effective depth defenseman/psychopath

Seems totally legit. :P
No kidding. Totally lol.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 05, 2020, 01:37:12 PM
I'll give that twitter account some credit... a quick scroll through their feed suggests that they don't often (or ever prior to this, at least based on how far I scrolled) post their own rumours/speculation. And the fact that it's a Czech based account at least paints a hypothetical connection to Gudas. The obvious problem here is that the Leafs aren't allowed to speak to let alone negotiate a contract with pending UFAs right now. Unless of course the Caps gave him/them permission to.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 05, 2020, 01:40:18 PM
I'll give that twitter account some credit... a quick scroll through their feed suggests that they don't often post their own rumours/speculation. And the fact that it's a Czech based account at least paints a hypothetical connection to Gudas. The obvious problem here is that the Leafs aren't allowed to speak to let alone negotiate a contract with pending UFAs right now. Unless of course the Caps gave him/them permission to.
And that is the thing. If Washington gave them permission, it's possible. I still don't see Gudas waiting around though.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Deebo on October 05, 2020, 01:40:51 PM
I'll give that twitter account some credit... a quick scroll through their feed suggests that they don't often post their own rumours/speculation. And the fact that it's a Czech based account at least paints a hypothetical connection to Gudas. The obvious problem here is that the Leafs aren't allowed to speak to let alone negotiate a contract with pending UFAs right now. Unless of course the Caps gave him/them permission to.

With a lesser player like Gudas if the team and player have both agreed that he will be going to free agency, I wouldn't be surprised if a team just gives them the go ahead to talk to anyone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 05, 2020, 01:41:41 PM
With a lesser player like Gudas if the team and player have both agreed that he will be going to free agency, I wouldn't be surprised if a team just gives them the go ahead to talk to anyone.

Yeah especially during such a weird time like this.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Zee on October 05, 2020, 01:45:12 PM
In normal times there was a week before July 1 where you can talk to any UFA, does that rule not apply to the Covid free agency day?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 05, 2020, 01:47:01 PM
In normal times there was a week before July 1 where you can talk to any UFA, does that rule not apply to the Covid free agency day?

Nope. It was also dropped from the CBA for future years when they updated/extended it in the summer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Zee on October 05, 2020, 01:51:18 PM
In normal times there was a week before July 1 where you can talk to any UFA, does that rule not apply to the Covid free agency day?

Nope. It was also dropped from the CBA for future years when they updated/extended it in the summer.

Thanks, seemed like a good idea I wonder why they dropped it.  I enjoyed that week of teams following Tavares around, especially Lou flying all over the country trying to stay close to him lol
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 05, 2020, 01:57:50 PM
In normal times there was a week before July 1 where you can talk to any UFA, does that rule not apply to the Covid free agency day?

Nope. It was also dropped from the CBA for future years when they updated/extended it in the summer.

Thanks, seemed like a good idea I wonder why they dropped it.  I enjoyed that week of teams following Tavares around, especially Lou flying all over the country trying to stay close to him lol
I guess they want to save teams money lol. They brought it in because they know teams were talking to agents anyway so may as well make it legal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 05, 2020, 01:58:11 PM
Kyle Dubas: Allain, do you know of any right-shooting burly men in your portfolio who would be amenable to playing for Toronto if we don't get our primary target... let's call him Peter.

Allain Roy: Rad idea, Kyle. Let me check.

Later that day...

Allain: Sup, Kyle. I got a dude who is interested. He kind of has a sketchy history with DoPS though. What are you looking to spend?

Dubas: I've got maybe 1 to 1 and a half... apples; they can be delivered... twice?

Allain: Let me see how much he likes... apples.

--

And that's the story of how Kyle Dubas accidentally signed Kris Russell.

Kyle: I said, right-shot, Allain.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on October 05, 2020, 02:17:02 PM
Guys, it says confirmed right there in the tweet.

I can understand the skepticism if it didn't say "Confirmed", but it does.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 05, 2020, 02:20:46 PM
Kyle Dubas: Allain, do you know of any right-shooting burly men in your portfolio who would be amenable to playing for Toronto if we don't get our primary target... let's call him Peter.

Allain Roy: Rad idea, Kyle. Let me check.

Later that day...

Allain: Sup, Kyle. I got a dude who is interested. He kind of has a sketchy history with DoPS though. What are you looking to spend?

Dubas: I've got maybe 1 to 1 and a half... apples; they can be delivered... twice?

Allain: Let me see how much he likes... apples.

--

And that's the story of how Kyle Dubas accidentally signed Kris Russell.

Kyle: I said, right-shot, Allain.
Hahaha, that was worth the read!!
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 05, 2020, 02:21:35 PM
Guys, it says confirmed right there in the tweet.

I can understand the skepticism if it didn't say "Confirmed", but it does.
Good point! Done deal!! Bobby Mac, what are you waiting for?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 05, 2020, 02:32:16 PM
Guys, it says confirmed right there in the tweet.

I can understand the skepticism if it didn't say "Confirmed", but it does.
Good point! Done deal!! Bobby Mac, what are you waiting for?

October 9th :)
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 05, 2020, 02:33:32 PM
I'd be sorely displeased if Matthews' iMessage/SnapChat thread with Taylor Hall discussing the arrangements for staying at his Arizona home did not include the pitch to play on his left wing for next year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 06, 2020, 10:21:44 PM
Bye, Lundqvist hopes and dreams
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 08, 2020, 02:08:51 PM
Jonas Siegal proposed (https://theathletic.com/2122395/2020/10/08/leafs-report-kyle-dubas-doubles-down-at-the-draft-schemes-for-free-agency/) former Soo Greyhound Nick Cousins as a potential depth pickup for the Leafs, and I see no flaw with that plan if it's league min-ish.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 08, 2020, 02:17:58 PM
Jonas Siegal proposed (https://theathletic.com/2122395/2020/10/08/leafs-report-kyle-dubas-doubles-down-at-the-draft-schemes-for-free-agency/) former Soo Greyhound Nick Cousins as a potential depth pickup for the Leafs, and I see no flaw with that plan if it's league min-ish.
Yup, on a cheap contract, why not? He only made a mil last year I think.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 09, 2020, 04:23:22 PM
Invalid Tweet IDI?d still like to try Weegar at RD.
I suspect his comfort at LD has something to do with his footedness (preferred pivot side).
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 09, 2020, 04:32:44 PM
Invalid Tweet IDI?d still like to try Weegar at RD.
I suspect his comfort at LD has something to do with his footedness (preferred pivot side).
He plays the left side when playing with Ekblad. I've seen him on the right side also.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on October 24, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
So I went on over to capfriendly to figure out how this all shakes out...

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev - Tavares - Marner
Kerfoot - Thornton - Simmonds
Vesey - Engvall - Spezza

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Lehtonen - Bogosian
Dermott

Andersen
Campbell

This leaves the Leafs with a grand total of just under $292K in cap space, and these guys are out:

Malgin
Boyd
Robertson
Korshkov
Barabanov
Liljegren
Sandin

Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Frank E on October 24, 2020, 01:42:41 PM
Anyone be interested in a straight up Nylander for Laine swap?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 24, 2020, 01:49:46 PM
So I went on over to capfriendly to figure out how this all shakes out...

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev - Tavares - Marner
Kerfoot - Thornton - Simmonds
Vesey - Engvall - Spezza

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Lehtonen - Bogosian
Dermott

Andersen
Campbell

This leaves the Leafs with a grand total of just under $292K in cap space, and these guys are out:

Malgin
Boyd
Robertson
Korshkov
Barabanov
Liljegren
Sandin


Keep in mind that Robertson can't be sent down. He will have to go back to junior if he isn't on the active roster because his salary can't count against the cap. My guess is he'll get the first 9 games to show he can play here. I think Barabanov will also be penciled in to start with the big club before Engvall. Vesey is the wildcard here. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 24, 2020, 01:55:27 PM
Anyone be interested in a straight up Nylander for Laine swap?
No because Nylander is signed for 4 more years and Laine is up after next season. He would score a boat load playing in our top 6 and will cost much more then Nylander, who actually scored more goals then he did last year. Now if he had 4 years left on his contract, it would be more thought provoking.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on October 24, 2020, 03:02:54 PM
Anyone be interested in a straight up Nylander for Laine swap?

Nope. Laine is too much of a one dimensional player. When he?s on, that one dimension can be super effective, but he doesn?t really provide anything else to the team. Nylander may not be quite as dangerous a goal scorer (though, the difference isn?t that dramatic), but he?s also an effective playmaker and puck carrier.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on October 24, 2020, 04:12:49 PM

Maybe this sounds crazy but I'm still not 100% that Nylander won't end up as the best of the big 3.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bullfrog on October 24, 2020, 05:35:24 PM
I'm 100% he won't match Matthews, but I've always been on the fence on not only who WILL be better, but also who IS better between him and Marner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 24, 2020, 05:37:32 PM

Maybe this sounds crazy but I'm still not 100% that Nylander won't end up as the best of the big 3.
His compete level will have to take a big step forward for that to happen. I think he can become #2 but doubtful he supplants Matthews. He's a great player right not but needs to step up his game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Joe on October 24, 2020, 06:35:51 PM
Anyone be interested in a straight up Nylander for Laine swap?

If fans rag on Nylander for being too soft and so on how would Laine be an improvement?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on October 24, 2020, 06:37:40 PM
I don't put much stock in the concept of "compete level" regardless but it's not like Matthews is always flying around there like a madman, banging into people and the like.

I really think it's a possibility that Nylander develops the best all-around game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Joe on October 24, 2020, 06:43:43 PM
The treatment Nylander is getting is very similar to Sundin?s first few years with the leafs. The criticisms were ridiculous.

Argue with me if you want but Wendel Clark was one of the biggest floaters I?ve ever seen play for the leafs, but you never heard anyone say that. It was especially evident if you saw live games.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 24, 2020, 07:57:44 PM
I don't put much stock in the concept of "compete level" regardless but it's not like Matthews is always flying around there like a madman, banging into people and the like.

I really think it's a possibility that Nylander develops the best all-around game.
You might not but there are plenty on analysts and ex NHL players that say it isn't good enough at times. I think Nylander is a great player but his compete level sometimes isn't good. I'd like him to drive the net more when carrying the puck instead of doing the button hook just over the blueline when the defender gets close. I think that alone would add a whole dimension to his game and make him even more dangerous.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on October 24, 2020, 08:09:58 PM
You might not but there are plenty on analysts and ex NHL players that say it isn't good enough at times. I think Nylander is a great player but his compete level sometimes isn't good.

Like I said, I don't put stock into the concept above what specific people say about Nylander but if you really want to talk about said specific complaint then this is where I'd fall back on lots of analysts and ex players saying the same thing about lots of guys over the years. Sundin, Jagr, Hull, Ovechkin until he won the cup, Lemieux at times.

This is one of those situations where I firmly fall back on the idea that there's a reason those guys are in a TV studio and not employed by NHL teams.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on October 24, 2020, 09:35:36 PM
I really think it's a possibility that Nylander develops the best all-around game.

The goals (finally) got a lot of attention this year. His puck carrying game has only gotten better to the point where defenses just sag back when he gets the puck out of tremendous respect. Kind of unheralded, because his linemates are not magicians, is how well he sets them up after carrying the puck into the zone.

This isn't me (I wish I had the technology and skill), but a like-minded fellow to follow:

He does everything useful at a well above average level: skating, passing, shooting, blending it all together to help his team get good chances.

Leafs PP with Marner to Matthews was getting anemic and predictable. Tavares struggled to start the season and re-kindle that spark with Marner. Instant turnaround when Keefe added Nylander to the mix in both those cases.

(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWiThumb/1920/TOR/nylanwi96)
 :-*
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on October 24, 2020, 11:05:48 PM
He reminds me of Kaberle in some ways. He's so good at just carrying the pick and gaining the zone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on October 25, 2020, 12:24:36 PM
He reminds me of Kaberle in some ways. He's so good at just carrying the pick and gaining the zone.
I knew it was never going to happen but I would have loved to see Kaberle play wing for a few games.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on February 02, 2021, 02:46:29 PM
I've been thinking about this for awhile: Morgan Rielly is the Leafs' DeMar DeRozan. Is there a Kawhi Leonard in the NHL? Does Dubas have the gumption to make that trade when the circumstances align?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 02, 2021, 02:53:24 PM
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on February 02, 2021, 03:05:13 PM

Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 02, 2021, 03:29:11 PM
I don't see the Leafs trading any D men away. Injuries can and probably will happen so it's better to be looking at them then looking for them.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 02, 2021, 03:50:14 PM
I don't see the Leafs trading any D men away. Injuries can and probably will happen so it's better to be looking at them then looking for them.

I think it all depends. They have 3 players that look like they can step into Dermott's spot. How many back ups of the back ups do they think they need?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 02, 2021, 03:51:48 PM
I've been thinking about this for awhile: Morgan Rielly is the Leafs' DeMar DeRozan. Is there a Kawhi Leonard in the NHL? Does Dubas have the gumption to make that trade when the circumstances align?

Meaning, a 1 year, all in player? If it works you're a genius. If it fails.........how far back have you set your team?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 02, 2021, 04:03:33 PM
I don't see the Leafs trading any D men away. Injuries can and probably will happen so it's better to be looking at them then looking for them.

I think it all depends. They have 3 players that look like they can step into Dermott's spot. How many back ups of the back ups do they think they need?
Tampa used 9 D men in the playoffs last year. Sandin, Lehtonen and who's your 3rd?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 02, 2021, 04:12:33 PM
I think it all depends. They have 3 players that look like they can step into Dermott's spot. How many back ups of the back ups do they think they need?

No thing as too much depth. Unless the Leafs are getting an upgrade somewhere else, there's no reason to move Dermott during the season. They're not moving him for picks and/or prospects during the campaign.

Also, of the players that could "step into Dermott's spot," Dermott has shown the most at the NHL level to this point. Sandin should overtake him by next season, but none of the other options currently available look like they're that close to providing the same quality of play in the near term.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on February 02, 2021, 04:16:33 PM

I have a hunch that at the end of this crunched, compressed season there's going to be a huge upside in having good, fresh depth.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on February 02, 2021, 04:27:59 PM
I've been thinking about this for awhile: Morgan Rielly is the Leafs' DeMar DeRozan. Is there a Kawhi Leonard in the NHL? Does Dubas have the gumption to make that trade when the circumstances align?

Meaning, a 1 year, all in player? If it works you're a genius. If it fails.........how far back have you set your team?

It would really depend on who the Kawhi is, and it might not just be for a year. Rielly is commanding 7-8M at least on his next contract, with the potential to walk if we take him to the end of his deal.

The point is more to leverage the Rielly-asset at nearly his peak return. He is a leader in the room, productive on the ice, a pillar in the community, and the longest serving member so I suggest this with all due respect. At the same time, he is defensively ineffective and has required a great deal of investment to prop up while his offense is veering towards replaceable. With the Kraken draft approaching and a logjam to sort through for the protection list and cheaper LD on deck, converting Rielly to a premier playdriving LW/C (whoever that might be) in the offseason makes a lot of teambuilding sense to me.

Let's throw out an example: Florida gets steamrolled this season and scores pretty high on the draft lottery and decides to re-tool for another year or two, save a bit of money, open up a lane for Lundell, but also provide veteran leadership and the best partner Aaron Ekblad has ever played with. Leafs take back Sasha Barkov who requested a trade after yet another dismal season playing on America's wang.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 02, 2021, 04:45:38 PM
I've been thinking about this for awhile: Morgan Rielly is the Leafs' DeMar DeRozan. Is there a Kawhi Leonard in the NHL? Does Dubas have the gumption to make that trade when the circumstances align?

Meaning, a 1 year, all in player? If it works you're a genius. If it fails.........how far back have you set your team?

It would really depend on who the Kawhi is, and it might not just be for a year. Rielly is commanding 7-8M at least on his next contract, with the potential to walk if we take him to the end of his deal.

The point is more to leverage the Rielly-asset at nearly his peak return. He is a leader in the room, productive on the ice, a pillar in the community, and the longest serving member so I suggest this with all due respect. At the same time, he is defensively ineffective and has required a great deal of investment to prop up while his offense is veering towards replaceable. With the Kraken draft approaching and a logjam to sort through for the protection list and cheaper LD on deck, converting Rielly to a premier playdriving LW/C (whoever that might be) in the offseason makes a lot of teambuilding sense to me.

Let's throw out an example: Florida gets steamrolled this season and scores pretty high on the draft lottery and decides to re-tool for another year or two, save a bit of money, open up a lane for Lundell, but also provide veteran leadership and the best partner Aaron Ekblad has ever played with. Leafs take back Sasha Barkov who requested a trade after yet another dismal season playing on America's wang.
I think the Leafs will have to seriously look at moving Rielly. There's no way they can pay him 7-8 mill. His defence isn't good enough.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 03, 2021, 11:01:51 AM
I think it all depends. They have 3 players that look like they can step into Dermott's spot. How many back ups of the back ups do they think they need?

No thing as too much depth. Unless the Leafs are getting an upgrade somewhere else, there's no reason to move Dermott during the season. They're not moving him for picks and/or prospects during the campaign.

Also, of the players that could "step into Dermott's spot," Dermott has shown the most at the NHL level to this point. Sandin should overtake him by next season, but none of the other options currently available look like they're that close to providing the same quality of play in the near term.

Which is why I said "it all depends". At some point they have to decide where they need the depth? Is it a 3rd goalie? Is it another center? Of course the return matters. I'm not saying to move on from Dermott in the least. I actually like him quite a bit.

 But if he's a piece that you can move to fill another hole, you have to seriously consider it. With Lehtonen, Sandin, Liljegren on the sidelines, and even Marincin kicking around, you do have options. Are any of them Dermott? No, not yet. So, like any trade, it depends on the return.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 03, 2021, 11:03:31 AM
I've been thinking about this for awhile: Morgan Rielly is the Leafs' DeMar DeRozan. Is there a Kawhi Leonard in the NHL? Does Dubas have the gumption to make that trade when the circumstances align?

Meaning, a 1 year, all in player? If it works you're a genius. If it fails.........how far back have you set your team?

It would really depend on who the Kawhi is, and it might not just be for a year. Rielly is commanding 7-8M at least on his next contract, with the potential to walk if we take him to the end of his deal.

The point is more to leverage the Rielly-asset at nearly his peak return. He is a leader in the room, productive on the ice, a pillar in the community, and the longest serving member so I suggest this with all due respect. At the same time, he is defensively ineffective and has required a great deal of investment to prop up while his offense is veering towards replaceable. With the Kraken draft approaching and a logjam to sort through for the protection list and cheaper LD on deck, converting Rielly to a premier playdriving LW/C (whoever that might be) in the offseason makes a lot of teambuilding sense to me.

Let's throw out an example: Florida gets steamrolled this season and scores pretty high on the draft lottery and decides to re-tool for another year or two, save a bit of money, open up a lane for Lundell, but also provide veteran leadership and the best partner Aaron Ekblad has ever played with. Leafs take back Sasha Barkov who requested a trade after yet another dismal season playing on America's wang.

Yeah, I wasn't thinking of it from the Derozan angle, but I get what you're saying.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on February 03, 2021, 11:11:04 AM

I think the problem with the Kawhi analogy is that he really was a game changing top 5 in the league sort of talent. In the NHL, those guys don't really move unless they demand out or something and even then the cost tends to be prohibitive even from a "win now" perspective.

Also, and this is more in the weeds, but the reason that trade worked as well as it did is that Kawhi immediately jumped into DeRozan's role as a scoring wing but was just an upgraded version.  Dealing Rielly for Barkov, as cool as it would be, would take a weak D group and blast a hole in it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: L K on February 03, 2021, 11:23:08 AM
Yep, if a team wants Dermott its either coming as a deadline move in a package or its in the offseason.  You don't sacrifice depth on the blueline if you are hoping for a deep playoff run.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 03, 2021, 02:06:15 PM

I think the problem with the Kawhi analogy is that he really was a game changing top 5 in the league sort of talent. In the NHL, those guys don't really move unless they demand out or something and even then the cost tends to be prohibitive even from a "win now" perspective.

Also, and this is more in the weeds, but the reason that trade worked as well as it did is that Kawhi immediately jumped into DeRozan's role as a scoring wing but was just an upgraded version.  Dealing Rielly for Barkov, as cool as it would be, would take a weak D group and blast a hole in it.

Agreed on all fronts. Plus, you're not getting a top 5 type player by dealing just Rielly, so how much more are you sacrificing?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on February 04, 2021, 01:45:33 PM
Dermott for Kapi!
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Highlander on February 04, 2021, 02:06:29 PM
Rielly for Taylor Hall on Matthews LW.  Hall-Matthews-Marner
One season of this!
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 15, 2021, 04:32:01 PM
Kypreos thinks the Leafs should trade Robertson and Kerfoot for Bennett.

lol
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on February 15, 2021, 04:42:42 PM
Kypreos thinks the Leafs should trade Robertson and Kerfoot for Bennett.

lol
And that's why he's not in tv anymore.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on February 15, 2021, 05:09:31 PM
I am truly mystified by the pants rocket hockey men seem to be sporting for Sam Bennett.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 15, 2021, 05:41:46 PM
Kypreos thinks the Leafs should trade Robertson and Kerfoot for Bennett.

lol

Oh, Kyper...got punched in the face a few too many times.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: . on February 15, 2021, 05:42:02 PM
Kypreos thinks the Leafs should trade Robertson and Kerfoot for Bennett.

lol
And that's why he's not in tv anymore.

No, I doubt bad takes are the reason. Bad takes are as marketable if not more so than good ones. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Andy on February 15, 2021, 05:53:19 PM
Kypreos thinks the Leafs should trade Robertson and Kerfoot for Bennett.

lol

Oh, Kyper...got punched in the face a few too many times.

I mean....if he doesn't get traded it's very likely he's picked up by Seattle in the expansion draft.. Robertson?? How??
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on February 16, 2021, 11:21:12 AM
Which top-6 winger do you guys want
I have no inside information but these are the reasonable names that have been bandied about:

Alex Iafallo, 27 y.o. undrafted LW with good resilient puck hounding instincts
Mikael Grandlund, 28 y.o. left shot C who could 3C, or complement a top-6
Conor Garland, 24 y.o. RW who once scored a goal with his face
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Bender on February 16, 2021, 11:24:27 AM
Kypreos thinks the Leafs should trade Robertson and Kerfoot for Bennett.

lol
And that's why he's not in tv anymore.

No, I doubt bad takes are the reason. Bad takes are as marketable if not more so than good ones.
It's time to bring back Peklund then. Dude would make a fortune.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: azzurri63 on February 16, 2021, 11:41:13 AM
Kypreos thinks the Leafs should trade Robertson and Kerfoot for Bennett.

lol

Thank God he's not GM.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 16, 2021, 12:00:27 PM
Which top-6 winger do you guys want
I have no inside information but these are the reasonable names that have been bandied about:

Alex Iafallo, 27 y.o. undrafted LW with good resilient puck hounding instincts
Mikael Grandlund, 28 y.o. left shot C who could 3C, or complement a top-6
Conor Garland, 24 y.o. RW who once scored a goal with his face

Garland is the easiest fit in terms of the cap, and a reasonable target. Granlund fills a need more than the others. Iafallo isn't high on my list, but wouldn't be a terrible addition.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Goaliedave31 on February 16, 2021, 12:18:09 PM
Isn't Galchenyuk better than all of these options?
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2021, 03:00:25 PM
Isn't Galchenyuk better than all of these options?

Oh god no.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Andy on February 16, 2021, 03:05:58 PM
I don't know about Granlund. Another centre would be useful but he's not a great faceoff guy and has barely been taking draws the last few years. Boone Jenner would be a nice fit if that's at all possible. Rickard Rakell is another name that has been mentioned that is somewhat intriguing... 
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 16, 2021, 03:07:01 PM
Isn't Galchenyuk better than all of these options?

5 years ago? Sure. Today? Nope. Not unless he completely turns his game around.

Galchenyuk was brought in for depth/injury insurance, and to allow the team to still have a full taxi squad while having AHL players get icetime with the Marlies. These guys would represent upgrades to the lineup.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 16, 2021, 03:07:16 PM
Friedman confirmed that Mikael Granlund is the mystery winger who he thinks the Leafs will try to acquire at some point:

Quote from: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/31-thoughts-tavares-gagner-blazing-trail-minor-hockey-involvement/
11. Granlund is the forward I guessed Toronto would consider. They contacted him about his interest during the off-season, but the money didn?t work. I still believe the Maple Leafs will look for a top-six winger, We will see where it goes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 16, 2021, 03:10:04 PM
I don't know about Granlund. Another centre would be useful but he's not a great faceoff guy and has barely been taking draws the last few years. Boone Jenner would be a nice fit if that's at all possible. Rickard Rakell is another name that has been mentioned that is somewhat intriguing...

Both are tougher fits, as they require a decent chunk of cap space beyond this season. Granlund and Iafallo are pure rentals, and Garland is a pending RFA who could be a trade piece in the offseason if he doesn't sign for a reasonable rate.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 16, 2021, 03:22:47 PM
I would, however, throw Nick Bjustad into consideration, if Minnesota falls out of a playoff spot and retains enough of his cap hit to make it work.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: louisstamos on February 16, 2021, 03:29:50 PM
While I don't think the salary would work (unless a 3rd team comes in to take on some cap for a pick), but...

Taylor Hall?  Or will he cost too much in terms of assets?  I know he trains with Matthews in the off-season, so I wonder if there's a fit there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 16, 2021, 03:56:00 PM
While I don't think the salary would work (unless a 3rd team comes in to take on some cap for a pick), but...

Taylor Hall?  Or will he cost too much in terms of assets?  I know he trains with Matthews in the off-season, so I wonder if there's a fit there.

Between the asset cost, cap hit, and the Sabres being a divisional opponent in a normal season, I'd be hesitant to make that move. Don't want to give direct competition pieces for their future.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Rob on February 16, 2021, 05:34:48 PM
Sydney Crosby for John Tavares. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Zee on February 17, 2021, 01:39:48 PM
Sydney Crosby for John Tavares.

We'd actually save on the cap!
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on February 28, 2021, 12:08:20 AM

Some idle thinking but with the talk of Columbus looking to make moves:

To CLB: Justin Holl, Alex Kerfoot, Rodion Amirov, 1st round pick

To Toronto: Seth Jones, Kiril Marchenko, 2nd

I suppose on the surface it doesn't look like a great haul for Jones but you're really only getting a year and a half of Jones before you have to pay him(and that will be a weird negotiation). Meanwhile the Leafs add some toughness to the top pairing and can afford things for a little while. It's a big give in terms of futures but...eh.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: herman on February 28, 2021, 11:17:22 AM
I think enough question marks have opened up in Jones? game that I am wary of allocating that many assets. I am sure we could fix him, but not while he is somewhat overvalued around the league.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Nik on February 28, 2021, 11:46:42 AM
I think enough question marks have opened up in Jones? game that I am wary of allocating that many assets. I am sure we could fix him, but not while he is somewhat overvalued around the league.

Well, the trade there is if he were playing more at the level of a few years ago there's no way you get him at that price.

And I don't think the asset cost is that high. Kerfoot is a real player, sure, and you downgrade prospect wise but Jones replaces and improves on Holl and the difference between a Toronto 1st and Columbus 2nd shouldn't be that many spots in the draft.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 28, 2021, 12:10:07 PM

Some idle thinking but with the talk of Columbus looking to make moves:

To CLB: Justin Holl, Alex Kerfoot, Rodion Amirov, 1st round pick

To Toronto: Seth Jones, Kiril Marchenko, 2nd

I suppose on the surface it doesn't look like a great haul for Jones but you're really only getting a year and a half of Jones before you have to pay him(and that will be a weird negotiation). Meanwhile the Leafs add some toughness to the top pairing and can afford things for a little while. It's a big give in terms of futures but...eh.
I don't think Jones is enough of an upgrade on Holl defensively. Add in that we have to give them Kerfoot and exchange a 1st for a 2nd? Both Kerfoot and Holl have 2 more years after this one, Jones has 1. I'm leaning towards no.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: bustaheims on February 28, 2021, 12:17:22 PM
The value isn?t terrible, but I have definite concerns about the drop of in perforons Jones this season. Could it be that, like so many others, he?s just done with Torts? Maybe, but at that cost, I?m not sure I?d want to take that risk.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Matthews34 on April 06, 2021, 10:20:17 AM
To Toronto: Nick Foligno (50% retained by Columbus AND Chicago) + 4th Round Draft Pick CBJ
To Columbus: Alex Kerfoot
To Chicago: 5th Round Draft Pick TOR


To Toronto: Scott Laughton (50% retained)
To Philadelphia: 2nd Round Draft Pick + Nic Petan + Mac Hollowell


To Toronto: Jamie Oleksiak
To Dallas: 2nd Round Draft Pick DET
To Detroit: Travis Dermott



Foligno - Matthews - Marner
Galchenyuk - Tavares - Nylander
Hyman - Laughton - Mikheyev
Thornton/Engvall - Spezza - Simmonds

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Oleksiak - Bogosian

Campbell - Andersen
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on April 11, 2021, 04:36:20 PM
FWIW:

?s=19

"Potentially" may be doing some heavy lifting here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021
Post by: OldTimeHockey on April 11, 2021, 05:38:49 PM
FWIW:

?s=19

"Potentially" may be doing some heavy lifting here.

I like Nick Foligno. He's nasty out there. And a local Sudbury boy. That being said, I'm not sure I'd give a first up for him. Even though it would be great to see him leap like his old man after scoring an overtime winner for the Leafs