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2019 MLB Thread

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Guilt Trip:
 I know it doesn't tell the whole story but that's a lot of cash for a guy who's hit 30+ homeruns twice and 100 RBI's once.

bustaheims:

--- Quote from: Guilt Trip on March 03, 2019, 11:35:49 PM --- I know it doesn't tell the whole story but that's a lot of cash for a guy who's hit 30+ homeruns twice and 100 RBI's once.

--- End quote ---

When Harper's at his best, he's one of the top 4 or 5 bats in the game. The issue that injuries and inconsistency have plagued him throughout his career. The Phillies are banking on getting more of him at his best then not. History says that's unlikely, but, if they get that guy one of every 3 seasons - that could be enough to make them champions instead of also-rans.

L K:

--- Quote from: bustaheims on March 04, 2019, 01:33:45 PM ---
--- Quote from: Guilt Trip on March 03, 2019, 11:35:49 PM --- I know it doesn't tell the whole story but that's a lot of cash for a guy who's hit 30+ homeruns twice and 100 RBI's once.

--- End quote ---

When Harper's at his best, he's one of the top 4 or 5 bats in the game. The issue that injuries and inconsistency have plagued him throughout his career. The Phillies are banking on getting more of him at his best then not. History says that's unlikely, but, if they get that guy one of every 3 seasons - that could be enough to make them champions instead of also-rans.

--- End quote ---

The "going rate" for WAR is something like 7 million/1.0 WAR.  That calculation might be a little old now but it would necessitate Harper being a 4+ WAR player in the early years of this contract to justify it. He has hit >4.0 WAR in 3 of his 7 seasons so far.   Harper has one ridiculous season in his career and a number of very good seasons  but he's way too inconsistent for me.  Injuries might explain some of that away but the truly elite guys shouldn't have seasons of 1.1, 1.3 and 1.5 WAR under their belt.

Nik:

--- Quote from: L K on March 04, 2019, 10:26:28 PM ---The "going rate" for WAR is something like 7 million/1.0 WAR.  That calculation might be a little old now but it would necessitate Harper being a 4+ WAR player in the early years of this contract to justify it. He has hit >4.0 WAR in 3 of his 7 seasons so far.   Harper has one ridiculous season in his career and a number of very good seasons  but he's way too inconsistent for me.  Injuries might explain some of that away but the truly elite guys shouldn't have seasons of 1.1, 1.3 and 1.5 WAR under their belt.

--- End quote ---

To some extent that reveals some of the problems with WAR though. In those three years you're including a year where he was hurt(although he wasn't playing great) and you're including a very strange situation where Harper's bat produced a lot of value but he had a bizarrely badly rated year in the field.

He's produced at almost exactly a 4 WAR per year rate if you average out his career so I don't think of it as that huge a divide between his value and this deal. If we try to use the NHL as a comparison with McDavid and Kershaw representing the high side of the scale then Harper's per year deal equates to roughly a 9 million NHL deal. For a guy with real MVP potential I think it's a fair deal if too long for my tastes.

hockeyfan1:
New rule changes coming to MLB, slated to commence this year and the rest to be finalized by the 2020 Major League season

Some of the changes:

- 28 player roster for September for all teams (starting in 2020)
- July 31 trade deadline (no more trades after this date will be permitted)
- the introduction of the 15-day DL rather than the current 10-day DL
- two minute maximum commercial breaks
- five mound visits allowed this year; four in 2020

...and much more.

For details:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/03/14/mlb-new-rule-changes-roster-3-batter-minimum/3157226002/

Lots of @mlb rule changes for 2019 and 2020: pic.twitter.com/Bn89KReec0— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) March 14, 2019
--- End quote ---

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