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Messages - cw

#1
Quote from: herman on Today at 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: cw on Today at 05:28:09 PM
Quote from: herman on Today at 05:02:28 PM
Quote from: herman on Yesterday at 12:13:14 PMAnother silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)

A less silly idea today!

Ignoring the dollars, I'm not clear on why New Jersey would do that ...

Some owners just love to make a splash.

They sure did with their ownership.
They bought the 76ers and Devils 13 and 11 years ago for ~$630 mil (combined)
In roughly 12 years, they're worth $5.5 Billion.

Injuries and issues had them underachieve last year.
Looks like a promising roster.
I can see why Keefe took the deal.
#2
Quote from: herman on Today at 05:02:28 PM
Quote from: herman on Yesterday at 12:13:14 PMAnother silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)

A less silly idea today!

Ignoring the dollars, I'm not clear on why New Jersey would do that ...
#3
Good for him.
I was hoping he would take a little time to recharge.
Maybe this is a good time for organizing moving the family.
#4
A little over 13 months from now, Leafs cap space is projected to be $51.2 mil with only 8 players currently signed
2-3 RFAs are likely to re-sign: Woll, Knies & Holmberg
Marner (if he is still here), Tavares & McCabe will be notable UFAs

Significant change in the next 13 months is inevitable.
The UFA markets of recent times haven't seemed that great.
I would not want to bet tons on the UFA market to fix the roster.
With their shallow prospect assets, they will be more reliant on it than a number of teams.

When they want to attract UFAs, here's their roster in 13 months:
Matthews
Nylander
Rielly
Kampf
Jarnkrok
Reaves
Benoit
McMann
Knies (probably re-signed)
Woll (probably re-signed)
Holmberg (probably re-signed)
Marner UFA?
Tavares UFA?
Liljegren RFA?
Robertson RFA?
Domi UFA?
Bertuzzi UFA?
Cowan?
Minten?

Bertuzzi came, in my opinion, to help him get a better contract because he could play with the core 4 and put up some points. Does someone like him come to play with the core 2 in 13 months?
You need a good roster to attract UFAs. It is iffy at the moment 13 months out.

Let's say you are Marner and you're looking at the future. If you sign and trade, that hurts the team you are going to - who are giving up assets they could otherwise have in 13 months to help Marner's new team win if he goes there as a UFA. Right now, a bunch of folks are blaming Marner for the teams shortcomings and exploring trades to Nashville, etc. In the last 8 years, he's a top 10 NHL scorer, his team's top playoff scorer, he PKs and plays two ways ... and for that, he's not getting appreciated - the team is sitting on their hands while he's getting tarred & feathered and traded away in the media. I don't think that is very smart behavior of his team. He's an asset they should be protecting - whether they're going to part ways with him or not. If they let him get pissed off, he may not be very cooperative, sympathetic and leave for nothing. They'll have a whole lot of cap space and a less attractive roster for UFAs = less likely to see a parade.

From the 2006 CBA on, we've periodically assured ourselves "we'll fill up the roster with great UFAs" ... Correct me if I'm wrong but that didn't work out so well. We were lucky to get a playoff round many of those years.

Before they cut Marner's throat, I do wonder what the longer view is. What are they going to spend this $52.x mil on in 13 months? I'm sure they'll spend it. But can they get as good price performance? I wonder.

The window for Matthews is 4 years. After that, he's probably starting to decline or departed. How they handle this Marner situation is very important. And it is not all up to them. Marner has the final say.
#5
Quote from: Zee on Yesterday at 07:08:59 PM
Quote from: Highlander on Yesterday at 02:40:51 PMShanahan had to be there. Ultimately he is the boss.

He wasn't at the presser when they hired Keefe, it was only Dubas

He flew to AZ for Babcock's firing.
He was part of the Press Conference dealing with it and Keefe's hiring
They were in AZ - maybe they didn't have a big table for all of them to sit at.
#6
Brindamour expressed a desire to re-sign long before the playoffs.

The Leafs had to know that their roster as of last summer was not as good as the team that got knocked out 4-1 by Florida.

Klingberg goes down and Samsonov clears waivers - the Leafs had to know they were not a true contender. The odds makers and media pundits backed that as did their place in the standings.

They knew there was a good chance Keefe wasn't going to survive as coach.
Even Keefe knew during his last chats with the media before being relieved from his duties.

Shanahan and Treliving had a long time to line up their potential candidates to replace Keefe.
#7
Quote from: Zee on May 17, 2024, 04:34:30 PMAh yes, Shanahan's "exhaustive search" that interviewed 2 people and hired the guy everyone predicted for a couple of months

I'm sure they put a list together.
Everyone knows nearly everyone else in hockey ...

Boudreau & Julien - too old?
Woodcroft - too green?
Evason - never made it out of the 1st round in the AHL or NHL
Quenneville - too much baggage from Chicago scandal for Toronto media
etc
Likely a few names the media hadn't considered

They short listed

A number of reports said Gallant, Todd McLellan & Berube were interviewed - Elliott Friedman also thought they kicked tires on some other names

They discussed/debated the short list
Tossed around numbers with their favorite.
Done deal

I'm sure Treliving had significant input - Friedman thought so. Probably his call.
Shanahan reportedly interviewed as well

Shanahan's contract is in its final year. Any chance of survival needed a quick impact. You can't change all the players quickly.

Berube took over a .447 hockey team during the first qtr of the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues season (.573 previous season). They played .651 for the balance of the season with him and won a Stanley Cup. He's known for holding all players accountable - which might make him a coach with a shorter wick. Those who did as he asked seemed to do well with him and seem to remain appreciative of him. Someone compared him to Pat Quinn - tough but fair. Many in the media thought he was a leading candidate to coach other teams and reportedly had spoken with other teams so I can appreciate that they had to move quickly if they wanted him.

Was he the best coach available? I don't know all the candidates that well or some at all so I wouldn't know.
But his selection seems far from indefensible. He's a credible NHL coach.

As we all know too well, scoring in the playoffs gets tougher. I didn't attend the Leafs practices, so again, I don't have all the details. But I did feel long before Berube that the Leafs should have prepared for playoff hockey more. Apparently, when he took over in St. Louis, Berube maintained a team can only play one way - you can't easily turn on the switch for the playoffs. So they began practicing for playing in the playoffs when he took over for game 20 in that regular season. That philosophy will not do this team any harm when it comes to the playoffs.
#8
Quote from: Bender on May 14, 2024, 11:05:14 PM
Quote from: cw on May 14, 2024, 08:57:26 PM
Quote from: herman on May 14, 2024, 07:47:25 PMJT is actually the underperforming player I don't think it makes sense to trade.

I think he tries his heart out.
He hit like crazy.
Best faceoff guy in the league or right up there.

But his ppg falls from .95 in the regular season to .67 in the playoffs
Arguably, he's the weakest link in the core 4 when it comes to scoring in the playoffs.

And he's been tapering off in the regular season - some of that this season was him taking the checking line center role - which he also did in the 1st four games against the Bruins. There is some explanation for it.

In preseason, he logged one of the faster skating times - worked on it over the summer. He also seems to skate a lot as I vaguely recall from some stat I saw a while ago.

A year from now, you'll have a core 3 in their prime and his big contract off the books - maybe in a lesser role for much less dough.

Marner is their leading playoff scorer & playoff powerplay scorer. If they're worried about scoring in the playoffs you usually do not erase the top scorer to solve that problem. You give him some guys to play with that are better at scoring. In 2024, Marner got Tavares for the 1st four games and they were a checking line against Pastrnak - with a lot of d-zone starts. Then, they move him to be with Domi & Bertuzzi - which put two distributors of the puck on one line with a 2nd tier finisher. And people wonder why/how his scoring got compromised? It may not be fully explained by that but that was a hunk of the problem - aside from Bruins checking and goaltending.

I'd patch it up in goal, with dmen and a couple of forwards. If they do a decent job of that, they're close to last year: a top 6 contender or so with a shot to steal it if their goalie gets hot. The following year, when Tavares dough comes off, they can add more and fix what didn't work.

There are no guarantees. But something like that allows them to knock on the door a few times with the core 3.

McCabe-Brodie were seemingly an excellent pair going into the 2022-23 playoffs. The wheels fell off. I saw Brodie tapered off this season. I've never really felt I grasped what the heck happened there. McCabe shows up this season and he has me wondering if he's top 5 - he's not top 4. He obviously turned it around.

Rielly had a great playoff last season. He seemed to be going ok this year. Around the time of his suspension, he seemed to taper off and never recovered. If Rielly played in this year's playoffs like he did last year, the Leafs beat the Bruins. So whatever happened there is troubling. I'd sure want to better understand that as I reconstruct the dmen ...

I don't see Marner resigning let alone with any modicum of cap hit that the fan base is likely to swallow.

I've only been watching about 60 years.
I honestly cannot ever recall management or ownership paying much serious attention to what the fan base thought about how much a player should be paid. Usually, like now, management are too busy looking over their shoulder at ownership dangling a pink slip to worry much about what the fans thought players should be paid. Around the MLSE water cooler, that notion would probably get a few laughs.

I cannot recall a players agent seriously soliciting the fan base's input in contract negotiations either.

The fans are fickle. If Marner scores in game 7 OT, they'll be trying to erect a statue. Pastrnak scores on a play Paul Maurice & another past Leafs assistant coach question was Marner's responsibility and the fans want him tarred and feathered. They're howling that Marner is responsible for the lack of playoff scoring and should be gotten rid of because of it overlooking that he leads the Leafs in playoff scoring and the forwards in playoff +/-, etc since he showed up. Marner understands the 'God-like' worship and 'Demon-like' hate that can change on a play. What coaching and management should be doing is standing up for their asset. If they don't do that, I wouldn't blame Marner for letting his contract expire without a trade. They would be getting exactly what they deserve for their conduct. They're supposed to be a team that stands up for each other.

For the record, I was not a big fan of Marner being drafted because of his size. I was worried about his ability to compete at the NHL level with the bigger bodies, etc.

I looked at some Leafs history. Here's where these Leafs greats ranked in NHL scoring over their first 8 years in the NHL:
Matthews 7th
Mahovlich 8th
Sittler 10th
Marner 10th
Keon 11th
McDonald 13th
Sundin 15th
Gilmour 19th
Vaive 26th
Nylander 28th
Kessel 33rd
Clark 160th (injured some)

When you look at all the guys he's around in offense in today's NHL, his current pay is commensurate with those players - you might bicker about a few hundred grand while ignoring that he PK's and plays two ways.

His playoff ppg, which leads his team over 8 years, is .88 which is 27th in the league (30+ playoff games played) and ties him with Alex Ovechkin and Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly during those 8 years. Not too shabby in the games that matter most.

I'm still not a gigantic fan of Marner's but it is tough to disrespect what he has done since he showed up. He's clearly one of the better players to ever pull on a Leafs jersey. He deserves to be paid accordingly. The chances of them recovering his full asset value in a trade under these circumstances is not good and would probably compromise Matthews' chances of ever leading a parade in Toronto. You do not get guys like this too often. Management would be wise to straighten out the fans and protect their asset - for their own self preservation if nothing else.
#9
Quote from: herman on May 14, 2024, 02:00:49 PM
Quote from: Deebo on May 06, 2024, 08:18:55 AMCap situation:

Auston Matthews
   13,250,000 
William Nylander
   11,500,000 
John Tavares
   11,000,000 
Mitchell Marner
   10,903,000 
David Kampf
   2,400,000 
Calle Jarnkrok
   2,100,000 
Bobby McMann
   1,350,000 
Ryan Reaves
   1,350,000 
Matthew Knies
   925,000 
Pontus Holmberg
   800,000 
---------
---------
Morgan Rielly
   7,500,000 
Jake McCabe
   2,000,000 
Simon Benoit
   1,350,000 
Connor Timmins
   1,100,000 
---------
---------
Joseph Woll
   766,667 
---------
---------
Total
   68,294,667 
---------
---------
Cap
   87,700,000 
---------
---------
Room
   19,405,333 

RFAs:
Nicholas Robertson
Connor Dewar
Noah Gregor
Max Ellis
Alex Steeves

Timothy Liljegren
Maxime Lajoie

Keith Petruzelli

In addition to this list are some players who have signed ELCs/SPCs vying for a spot next season, most of them sub 900k: gonna bold the ones that likely get a look
Fraser Minten
Easton Cowan
Nikita Grebenkin
Roni Hirvonen
Ryan Tverberg
Jacob Quillan

Topi Niemela
Mikko Kokkonen
William Villeneuve
Marshall Rifai
Cade Webber
Nicolas Mattinen

Assuming there is no big trade out, the Leafs need to fill 2ish F slots, 3 D slots, and 2 G with the ~20M
Re-signing RFAs Robertson, Dewar, and Liljegren for like 1.3-1.5M each would take up < 5M of that; set aside another 5M for those waiver-bait depth forwards/defense/3rd goalie leaves about 9M for 2 real D + 1 real G. Which would put us at about 42 SPC slots used before we snag waiver-bait (probably 4 more).

I doubt RFAs Max Ellis & Keith Petruzelli will be qualified.
Not sure about Noah Gregor or Alex Steeves (one of their better AHL forwards)

QuoteRe-signing RFAs Robertson, Dewar, and Liljegren for like 1.3-1.5M each

Dewar, and Liljegren have arbitration rights.
I doubt Dewar presents much of a problem and if he did, they wouldn't make a qualifying offer.

Liljegren with arbitration rights is likely to be well north of $1.5M. Look at what Sandin got. That might be problematic. If they land a partner for Rielly and Benoit-McCabe are the 3/4 pair, they're looking at paying Liljegren pretty good bucks to be a 5/6 dman. He's just turned 25. They may already be investing in Edmundson or Lyubushkin. Liljegren is a right shot. They're thin in D talent. Could get awkward trying to keep his contract down.
#10
Quote from: herman on May 14, 2024, 07:47:25 PMJT is actually the underperforming player I don't think it makes sense to trade.

I think he tries his heart out.
He hit like crazy.
Best faceoff guy in the league or right up there.

But his ppg falls from .95 in the regular season to .67 in the playoffs
Arguably, he's the weakest link in the core 4 when it comes to scoring in the playoffs.

And he's been tapering off in the regular season - some of that this season was him taking the checking line center role - which he also did in the 1st four games against the Bruins. There is some explanation for it.

In preseason, he logged one of the faster skating times - worked on it over the summer. He also seems to skate a lot as I vaguely recall from some stat I saw a while ago.

A year from now, you'll have a core 3 in their prime and his big contract off the books - maybe in a lesser role for much less dough.

Marner is their leading playoff scorer & playoff powerplay scorer. If they're worried about scoring in the playoffs you usually do not erase the top scorer to solve that problem. You give him some guys to play with that are better at scoring. In 2024, Marner got Tavares for the 1st four games and they were a checking line against Pastrnak - with a lot of d-zone starts. Then, they move him to be with Domi & Bertuzzi - which put two distributors of the puck on one line with a 2nd tier finisher. And people wonder why/how his scoring got compromised? It may not be fully explained by that but that was a hunk of the problem - aside from Bruins checking and goaltending.

I'd patch it up in goal, with dmen and a couple of forwards. If they do a decent job of that, they're close to last year: a top 6 contender or so with a shot to steal it if their goalie gets hot. The following year, when Tavares dough comes off, they can add more and fix what didn't work.

There are no guarantees. But something like that allows them to knock on the door a few times with the core 3.

McCabe-Brodie were seemingly an excellent pair going into the 2022-23 playoffs. The wheels fell off. I saw Brodie tapered off this season. I've never really felt I grasped what the heck happened there. McCabe shows up this season and he has me wondering if he's top 5 - he's not top 4. He obviously turned it around.

Rielly had a great playoff last season. He seemed to be going ok this year. Around the time of his suspension, he seemed to taper off and never recovered. If Rielly played in this year's playoffs like he did last year, the Leafs beat the Bruins. So whatever happened there is troubling. I'd sure want to better understand that as I reconstruct the dmen ...
#11
Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 14, 2024, 05:11:04 PMLeafs need to lose Kampf and Jarnkrok.

Kampf has a very difficult contract to trade, waive or buyout.
#12
Quote from: Highlander on May 14, 2024, 10:56:45 AMMarner to Rangers for Fox and a 1st

Doesn't make sense to me.
Who will the Rangers offensive dman be?
Gustavsson?

I do not think Marner will provide a past Norris winner in his prime plus a 1st in return.
Probably the 1st should come with Marner to the Rangers

The 1st isn't like to help win a Cup during Matthews next 4 years.
They would have to trade it for a player closer to their prime in the next 4 years.

To me, there are a whole bunch of issues to overcome trying to move Marner:
- their negotiating position isn't great due to the media, playoff results, etc
- they have to find a team Marner is willing to go to
- they have to overcome Marner's agent's preference for his player to become a UFA
- they have to find a team where there is a talent fit and a way to work it into the other team's cap space
- whatever they come up with has to work within the Leafs cap space & talent mix
- they cannot rely on a lot of youth/picks coming back because it won't help Matthews et al in the next 4 years before Matthews contract expires - they would probably have to flip them
- the sign and trade can't happen before July 1st so some of the prime UFAs may be gone for next season before they get cap space from such a trade - which hurts in the short term
- if they get rid of Marner, they're losing Tavares contract next season. Tarares is the one who has really dived in the playoffs to .63ppg - so a Marner trade & age could have them potentially going from core 4 to core 2.
- the combination of the return on the trade plus cap space (UFA market is not great) is very likely a reduction in the overall talent on the NHL roster next season. They're trading the guy with the highest playoff ppg since he arrived ... to improve their scoring in the playoffs even thought the prior two playoff years were 3.43 & 3.00 GFA.
- that previous point contradicts this: Shanahan needs something to work quickly or he won't be getting renewed next year. Treliving is not far behind him in that regard. So those are also constraints on the deal: they have to deliver in the playoffs soon.

To me, the heavy odds are that this is a rubik's cube talent/cap problem that they won't be able to get the colors to line up like they have to - to make it work in the short time frame that they need.

I have doubts getting rid of your highest ppg playoff scorer will improve playoff offense. Particularly when that offense delivered 3.43GFA and 3.00GFA in '23 & '22 and was hurt and in a more defensive posture against Pastrnak for '24.

To me, the biggest impact on this team going further in the playoffs would be adding a reliable goalie. Followed in short order by shoring up the team Dmen group - defensively & offensively. We knew that last summer. They have to plan on a 4 year window with Matthews. Dmen & goalies take the longest to develop. So they should try to make sure that foundation is quickly there. Forwards are far easier to add and integrate in a shorter window.
#13
Hurricanes' Rod Brind'Amour feels 'really good' about reaching new contract

That article is 11 days old. I don't think much has changed. I can't see them feeling justified to wait for him.
#14
Quote from: L K on May 10, 2024, 08:29:32 PMWhat's happening right now is Florida wiping the floor with Boston.  We are so far away from being a real contender.

That is why I do not get some of the handwringing with the loss to Boston.
The writing was very arguably on the wall last summer.
What credible folks had the Leafs listed as a "real contender" this season?

I hoped the Leafs would face the Bruins in the 1st round because I doubted they had much of a chance against Florida.
#15
Quote from: Zee on May 10, 2024, 01:35:05 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on May 10, 2024, 01:27:35 PM
Quote from: cw on May 10, 2024, 01:02:37 PMHe is a good coach.
Handled himself pretty well in a tough media market.
I think he'll have plenty of opportunities.
He should take some time to recharge.

I always wonder when coaches get hired so soon after getting let go. Feels like both the team and the coach would benefit from there being more distance between their past job and their new one.

In Keefe's situation he probably doesn't want to get too far removed from the list of coaches in people's minds.  It would be different it he were already one of the re-treads that keeps getting hired over and over again and never forgotten about, but he's a new guy, so he wants to keep his name out there and relevant.  That's my guess anyway.

28 NHL teams changed NHL head coaches or are in the process of changing them since 2022

Average NHL head coach tenure is around 2.28 years.

From what I've seen of the available coaches list going around, I doubt Keefe has too much to worry about.