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Messages - Zee

#1
Quote from: Frank E on May 17, 2024, 05:04:30 PM
Quote from: Zee on May 17, 2024, 04:34:30 PMAh yes, Shanahan's "exhaustive search" that interviewed 2 people and hired the guy everyone predicted for a couple of months

1. Tre hires the GM.
2. There are a lot of vacancies right now, so you move quickly.
3. Did you have in mind a better alternative?

I think he's got the experience to deal with the egos, he's got the street cred, and honestly I think our boys need a shit kicking once in a while that a guy like Berube can dole out. 

There's a new sheriff in town, and I'm OK with that.  From what I read, he can do the job well.


Tre doesn't do anything without Shanahan's blessing.

After claiming they would take their time with the hire, they literally hired a guy in 1 week. The coaching job in Toronto is coveted, they wouldn't have had a shortage of candidates despite all the vacancies, Berube basically told Ottawa he was waiting on the Leafs.
#2
Ah yes, Shanahan's "exhaustive search" that interviewed 2 people and hired the guy everyone predicted for a couple of months
#3
Hope Berube hires Alexander Godynyuk and Tom Fergus as assistants. Bring back some ex-Leafs power
#4
Quote from: cabber24 on May 17, 2024, 11:41:38 AM
Quote from: mr grieves on May 16, 2024, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AMIt's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.


Ooooooor you wait a year and the cap, just through the passage of time (i.e. Tavares expiring), gets reallocated as:

Matthews @ 13.5
Nylander @ 11.5
Marner @ ...12?

That's $37M, and, on an ~$90M cap, it's just over 40%. That is, if I'm remembering last I checked accurately, a pretty normal looking allocation for a contending team.

I can see moving Marner in a hockey trade modeled on the Tkachuk or DuBois deal, but just moving him for cost-controlled parts and cap space seems odd, since the cost and cap pressures are considerably lessened after next season.

Does that mean you're not really "going for it" next year? Yeah. But it maximizes their chances in years 2-5 IMO.
I would rather have Tavares at a reasonable number and reallocate the MM16 cap to D and G.

It's a trickle down affect.  The Leafs tying up $40M in forwards would be fine if all of those forwards just took over playoff series, but more often than not that doesn't happen.  By spreading the money around more evenly throughout the roster, you have a better chance of having good players further down the lineup that may make a difference for you.  Also, having big money on a defenseman that can reliably play 25-30 minutes in big pressure situations goes a LONG way in winning games.  It's no surprise that the most successful teams usually have 1 really good stud d-man.  The Leafs have Rielly who is offense only, not as impactful as a true superstar like Makar or Heiskanen.

Looking back on their draft, it's crazy that Heiskanen and Makar went 3-4.  If you redraft that year they'd be 1-2.
#5
OK you guys have convinced me, let's just re-hire Keefe.
#6
Quote from: mr grieves on May 16, 2024, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AMIt's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.


Ooooooor you wait a year and the cap, just through the passage of time (i.e. Tavares expiring), gets reallocated as:

Matthews @ 13.5
Nylander @ 11.5
Marner @ ...12?

That's $37M, and, on an ~$90M cap, it's just over 40%. That is, if I'm remembering last I checked accurately, a pretty normal looking allocation for a contending team.

I can see moving Marner in a hockey trade modeled on the Tkachuk or DuBois deal, but just moving him for cost-controlled parts and cap space seems odd, since the cost and cap pressures are considerably lessened after next season.

Does that mean you're not really "going for it" next year? Yeah. But it maximizes their chances in years 2-5 IMO.

$37M on your top 3 players (all forwards) is not a normal allocation for a contending team.

Here's a list of contending teams, or teams who have recently won cups.  Notice all of them have either a defenseman or a a goalie in their top 3 of salary allocation.  Not one of those teams goes over 31M in cap space for 3 players.

Dallas: 27.8M (Seguin, Benn, Heiskanen)
Colorado : 30.83M (MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar)
Florida: 29.5M (Barkov,Tkahchuk, Bobrovsky)
Vegas: 28.3M (Eichel, Stone, Pietrangelo)
Tampa: 28.5 (Kucherov, Point, Vasilevskiy)
#8
Quote from: herman on May 15, 2024, 11:58:21 AM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AMIf Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2.

They have NMCs so you're not going to just get straight cap dumps for future considerations. Anyone they're willing to waive to be traded to will also be sending cap hits back as they're likely in their contention windows.

Right, I wasn't suggesting they are gone as cap dumps, but they have to target getting different types of players back based on their cap hits.  You're not getting back an 11 million dollar player in a Marner deal, so who knows what type of d-man or forward you get.  If they're in the 6-7million range you still have a few million to use to get someone else.
#9
Quote from: bustaheims on May 15, 2024, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:24:34 AM
Quote from: herman on May 15, 2024, 10:18:13 AMBerube met with the Jets yesterday after two days of meetings with the Leafs over the weekend. Friedman, on today's 32T pod, believes Berube is the front runner for Toronto.

He met with the Jets on a Zoom call, not exactly over the moon for that job I guess

Jets are mostly doing their due diligence before handing the job to Arniel.

They balked on Berube when he asked if he can work remotely if he's coach.
#10
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AM
Quote from: cw on May 15, 2024, 09:15:47 AM
Quote from: Bender on May 14, 2024, 11:05:14 PM
Quote from: cw on May 14, 2024, 08:57:26 PM
Quote from: herman on May 14, 2024, 07:47:25 PMJT is actually the underperforming player I don't think it makes sense to trade.

I think he tries his heart out.
He hit like crazy.
Best faceoff guy in the league or right up there.

But his ppg falls from .95 in the regular season to .67 in the playoffs
Arguably, he's the weakest link in the core 4 when it comes to scoring in the playoffs.

And he's been tapering off in the regular season - some of that this season was him taking the checking line center role - which he also did in the 1st four games against the Bruins. There is some explanation for it.

In preseason, he logged one of the faster skating times - worked on it over the summer. He also seems to skate a lot as I vaguely recall from some stat I saw a while ago.

A year from now, you'll have a core 3 in their prime and his big contract off the books - maybe in a lesser role for much less dough.

Marner is their leading playoff scorer & playoff powerplay scorer. If they're worried about scoring in the playoffs you usually do not erase the top scorer to solve that problem. You give him some guys to play with that are better at scoring. In 2024, Marner got Tavares for the 1st four games and they were a checking line against Pastrnak - with a lot of d-zone starts. Then, they move him to be with Domi & Bertuzzi - which put two distributors of the puck on one line with a 2nd tier finisher. And people wonder why/how his scoring got compromised? It may not be fully explained by that but that was a hunk of the problem - aside from Bruins checking and goaltending.

I'd patch it up in goal, with dmen and a couple of forwards. If they do a decent job of that, they're close to last year: a top 6 contender or so with a shot to steal it if their goalie gets hot. The following year, when Tavares dough comes off, they can add more and fix what didn't work.

There are no guarantees. But something like that allows them to knock on the door a few times with the core 3.

McCabe-Brodie were seemingly an excellent pair going into the 2022-23 playoffs. The wheels fell off. I saw Brodie tapered off this season. I've never really felt I grasped what the heck happened there. McCabe shows up this season and he has me wondering if he's top 5 - he's not top 4. He obviously turned it around.

Rielly had a great playoff last season. He seemed to be going ok this year. Around the time of his suspension, he seemed to taper off and never recovered. If Rielly played in this year's playoffs like he did last year, the Leafs beat the Bruins. So whatever happened there is troubling. I'd sure want to better understand that as I reconstruct the dmen ...

I don't see Marner resigning let alone with any modicum of cap hit that the fan base is likely to swallow.

I've only been watching about 60 years.
I honestly cannot ever recall management or ownership paying much serious attention to what the fan base thought about how much a player should be paid. Usually, like now, management are too busy looking over their shoulder at ownership dangling a pink slip to worry much about what the fans thought players should be paid. Around the MLSE water cooler, that notion would probably get a few laughs.

I cannot recall a players agent seriously soliciting the fan base's input in contract negotiations either.

The fans are fickle. If Marner scores in game 7 OT, they'll be trying to erect a statue. Pastrnak scores on a play Paul Maurice & another past Leafs assistant coach question was Marner's responsibility and the fans want him tarred and feathered. They're howling that Marner is responsible for the lack of playoff scoring and should be gotten rid of because of it overlooking that he leads the Leafs in playoff scoring and the forwards in playoff +/-, etc since he showed up. Marner understands the 'God-like' worship and 'Demon-like' hate that can change on a play. What coaching and management should be doing is standing up for their asset. If they don't do that, I wouldn't blame Marner for letting his contract expire without a trade. They would be getting exactly what they deserve for their conduct. They're supposed to be a team that stands up for each other.

For the record, I was not a big fan of Marner being drafted because of his size. I was worried about his ability to compete at the NHL level with the bigger bodies, etc.

I looked at some Leafs history. Here's where these Leafs greats ranked in NHL scoring over their first 8 years in the NHL:
Matthews 7th
Mahovlich 8th
Sittler 10th
Marner 10th
Keon 11th
McDonald 13th
Sundin 15th
Gilmour 19th
Vaive 26th
Nylander 28th
Kessel 33rd
Clark 160th (injured some)

When you look at all the guys he's around in offense in today's NHL, his current pay is commensurate with those players - you might bicker about a few hundred grand while ignoring that he PK's and plays two ways.

His playoff ppg, which leads his team over 8 years, is .88 which is 27th in the league (30+ playoff games played) and ties him with Alex Ovechkin and Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly during those 8 years. Not too shabby in the games that matter most.

I'm still not a gigantic fan of Marner's but it is tough to disrespect what he has done since he showed up. He's clearly one of the better players to ever pull on a Leafs jersey. He deserves to be paid accordingly. The chances of them recovering his full asset value in a trade under these circumstances is not good and would probably compromise Matthews' chances of ever leading a parade in Toronto. You do not get guys like this too often. Management would be wise to straighten out the fans and protect their asset - for their own self preservation if nothing else.
It's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.
#11
Quote from: herman on May 15, 2024, 10:18:13 AMBerube met with the Jets yesterday after two days of meetings with the Leafs over the weekend. Friedman, on today's 32T pod, believes Berube is the front runner for Toronto.

He met with the Jets on a Zoom call, not exactly over the moon for that job I guess
#12
Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 14, 2024, 06:56:55 PM
Quote from: herman on May 14, 2024, 10:29:11 AMQ is a non-starter considering his role in enabling the perpetration of sexual assault (twice!). There's no way an organization like MLSE with so many fingers in corporate sponsorships and a huge staff would say this is the right place for someone to work on a second chance. If Kyle Beach publicly absolves Quennville of wrongdoing, perhaps there is a conversation to be had with the NHL, but he's had plenty of time to do that if he felt it was right.

This isn't a matter of Q doing his time with a little suspension for a faux-pas and letting that get swept under the rug once no one is talking about it (again).
Dont know if this is his daughter or not but if it is, it appears Kyle has given his blessing..
https://twitter.com/annaqville/status/1789324759383040503
https://twitter.com/annaqville/status/1789334568186613937
https://twitter.com/annaqville/status/1790132482152468847



Let's hire Q
#13
Quote from: Dappleganger on May 14, 2024, 10:18:56 AMBerube got his team over the hump, so we have to give him that. In all honestly, this is what the Leafs are looking for.

A McLellan hiring wouldn't make a lot of sense within those parameters.


I'm not expecting much.  Is Randy Carlyle available too?
#14
Carolina is extending this series. I heard from CJ that Leafs might move quickly here and the only 2 interviews he knows are Berube and McLellan. Guess that wraps it up for Brind'amour
#15
Former Leafs: Ex-Files / Re: Ron Ellis dead at79
May 13, 2024, 07:44:39 AM
I remember watching Ellis play when I was a kid.  RIP.