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Messages - Bender

#1
Wow it's actually happening.
#2
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 20, 2024, 03:29:36 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on June 20, 2024, 03:19:55 PMI have a hard time believing Marner would waive his no trade clause to go to Columbus.

With all due respect to BD, the whole "my friend heard this from a source" type rumours should have virtually no credibility but aside from that I don't think Columbus is a crazy potential destination for Marner.

Not TOO far from home, which I think will be important to him. Smaller market, again a hunch tells me is something he might/maybe/could prefer. And Columbus is probably in a position (desperate) where they're willing to offer Marner the type of contract he's looking for. For all 3 reasons it makes more sense than say a team like Vegas that everyone likes to connect him to.

I did think Columbus was plausible until I heard they wanted to cut payroll... Also I'd be reticent to take on Laine for our first even with retention. He's a reclamation project like PLD to some extent now.
#3
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 03:22:03 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 11:30:25 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

It's pretty horrible from an asset management perspective considering we have nothing coming down the pipeline and Marner can't be replaced via free agency.
#4
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 09:36:12 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 09:03:09 AM
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 18, 2024, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 18, 2024, 03:20:29 PMOnly one more year of Tavares's $11M cap hit though. So that percentage will drop.

Keep Marner and figure out how/if to retain Tavares next year.
I put the math above it's still too much of a percentage of the cap with the core's raises and a Tavares drop.

When Tavares contract drops off, if they've re-signed Marner for Nylander-esque dollars, I don't think they're that much out of alignment with other contenders. Because all three deals are recent, there will be some sawtooth effect where they'll be higher in the near term and lower as the contracts age and other team have to sign their stars.

To state simply: I wonder about going from core 4 to core 2. If not Marner, where is his core 3 replacement coming from? It sure gives me some pause.

Well that's exactly it. Him walking for nothing is a disaster scenario and one that should obviously be avoided, but I also think a long protracted battle for $13M on term is going to alienate a lot of this fanbase and I think rightfully so after what we've witnessed since 2016 and may not move them any closer to a contender. Even once Tavares comes down/off the books we don't really have any other pieces to properly augment the roster, so while it's nice to have a 95pt regular season winger I think if none of the core 4 can be traded we will still be in groundhog day unless Woll turns into the second coming of Turk Broda.

None of the core 4 can be traded without their approval as they all have NMCs.
Both Marner & Tavares have responded directly or indirectly that a trade isn't happening.
Pretty safe bet Matthews isn't going anywhere.
Nylander just signed his 8 year deal to stay in Toronto ...
The chances of a trade happening with the core 4 are very, very slim

It won't be a long protracted battle.
"Show me the money" Simple.
If they don't ante up, he'll have 31 other teams to consider July 1, 2025.
It is not a difficult concept. Nor hard to figure out.
He'll probably come in south of Matthews and north of Nylander.
The Leafs don't have to do that deal. I'm sure some team that Marner likes will.
Marner's agent knows all that. This is not that hard.

"alienate a lot of this fanbase" that's too bad.
A bunch of them will 'come to their senses' when faced with losing him for nothing - just like Treliving will.
You can't operate a team motivated by merely appeasing the fanbase with contracts you sign. Collectively, in this situation, I'm not sure the fanbase has been very well informed or has a very good grasp of the situation. A lot of misinformation and misleading stuff.
Until this is resolved, for his safety, Marner's camp will limit or eliminate his direct exposure to alienated fans.

There were a lot of alienated fans when Sundin declined being traded.
When they retired his jersey or put him in the HHoF, I didn't notice them.

There's so much I disagree with in this post, but let me ask you a question.

$13M/8yrs Full NMC for Marner or he walks. Would you sign him?
#5
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.
#6
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 18, 2024, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 18, 2024, 03:20:29 PMOnly one more year of Tavares's $11M cap hit though. So that percentage will drop.

Keep Marner and figure out how/if to retain Tavares next year.
I put the math above it's still too much of a percentage of the cap with the core's raises and a Tavares drop.

When Tavares contract drops off, if they've re-signed Marner for Nylander-esque dollars, I don't think they're that much out of alignment with other contenders. Because all three deals are recent, there will be some sawtooth effect where they'll be higher in the near term and lower as the contracts age and other team have to sign their stars.

To state simply: I wonder about going from core 4 to core 2. If not Marner, where is his core 3 replacement coming from? It sure gives me some pause.

Well that's exactly it. Him walking for nothing is a disaster scenario and one that should obviously be avoided, but I also think a long protracted battle for $13M on term is going to alienate a lot of this fanbase and I think rightfully so after what we've witnessed since 2016 and may not move them any closer to a contender. Even once Tavares comes down/off the books we don't really have any other pieces to properly augment the roster, so while it's nice to have a 95pt regular season winger I think if none of the core 4 can be traded we will still be in groundhog day unless Woll turns into the second coming of Turk Broda.
#7
Quote from: cabber24 on June 18, 2024, 03:11:34 PMOne thing the Leafs have established is that paying 4 forwards 48% of the cap does not work.

I cannot for the life of me comprehend how satisfied some of you are with Marner's playoff performances. The best of the worst is still not good and games 5-7 do matter. I cannot believe anyone who actually watched the games could make this argument. The rest of the core is locked so the reallocation available is Marner.

The Leafs very well could be worse off without him but they are not going to win with so much cap allocation upfront.

I posted this in January and it's still very relevant:

I wanted to analyze if we keep the core four would we have any additional cap available to allocate elsewhere?

Now Core 4 percentage of cap = (11.64+11+10.9+6.96)/83.5 = 48.51%

25/26 Projected
Salary Cap Guess= $91.5
Facts: AM = $13.25 WN = $11.5
Guesses: MM: $12.25, JT = $5.0

Projected Core 4 percentage of cap = (13.25+11.5+12.25+5)/91.5 = 45.90%

The difference in percentages equates to $2.4M more to spend.

If we had just $2.4M more to spend today we couldn't win. I don't think keeping the core 4 intact makes sense if they're serious about winning.

I think MM has to go.


And I mean it's not just about extending MM, it's about feeding the ego that he deserves more than Willy now, and I wouldn't be shocked if his ask is at 13M, or even equal to Matthews. At what point do we say enough is enough?
#8
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 02:12:44 PM
Quote from: herman on June 15, 2024, 09:20:33 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 14, 2024, 11:58:20 PM
Quote from: herman on June 13, 2024, 12:48:50 PMAgain, the content of what's being said through the media is all just posturing for bargaining position on both sides. However, how it's being said points towards a divorce happening one way or another.

Can't you concede that what's being said is possibly true and that it's not just posturing?

I believe Marner would prefer to stay. I also believe he believes he won't get what he and his camp think he's worth, and he is open to pursuing it elsewhere, hence the loveless "Marner will fulfil his contractual obligation" position.

Everything ever said to the media in this industry is for the purpose of posturing. That's how negotiations work when there is public interest.

In the meantime, the Leafs front office just told their insiders to can it because it's not helping their position.

Friedman, on the 32 Thoughts podcast, has declared a moratorium on the topic of Marner
Quote"To end the news segment, I am going on a Mitch Marner moratorium. You cannot say anything about this topic without somebody going berserk," Friedman told co-host Jeff Marek.

"This is why this is the hardest topic to discuss in the NHL. This is why it is so complicated to the future of this and the outcome of this is so complicated because you can't say a thing without somebody getting mad. Even when you're trying to not say anything remotely controversial, people are getting mad."

The Leafs are using Chris Johnston to tell the rest of the league who is interested in Marner they have to step up their offers if they want anything to done.

Quote"The Leafs are not leaning on Mitch Marner right now. They have not decided 100 percent they have to trade him and or that they're going to make life uncomfortable and they're getting the list of names. None of that's what's going on," Johnston said on his podcast on Friday.

"I think there's some frustration just about all the public discourse about it. And look, that's the nature of the beast when you're that player. And when the possibilities are on the table that we're talking about," Johnston said. "But at this point in time, I don't think the Leafs have a deal for them. And I don't think they've gone to them and asked them for a list or anything like that. I think they have to, it does not make any sense for the Leafs to go to war with this player, to make this any more public than it already is."

Transcriptions from:
https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/latest-news/i-am-going-on-a-mitch-marner-moratorium-does-the-discourse-on-the-maple-leafs-star-forward-need-a-break

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/latest-news/report-maple-leafs-have-not-decided-100-percent-that-they-have-to-trade-mitch-marner

And if you want to know what the Marner camp is thinking, just watch for Darren Dreger.

The stuff about 'posturing' seems almost comical in a sad way to me.
Some sort of media perceived contractual poker game is claimed to be going on ... when Marner got dealt a contractual Royal Flush years ago that so many in the media couldn't or can't seem to figure out. The only questions in this game are maybe how many chips the Leafs are going to lose and where Marner will be playing in the future. The top ten NHL scorer over the last eight years and the Leafs top playoff scorer over the last eight years is going to get a big, long contract by July 2025. The only question remaining for Marner is from which NHL team and he is the only one who is going to make that decision. Media and fans can't and won't. Ditto for Leafs management.

Marner doesn't have to discuss another contract with or a trade from the Leafs for the rest of his life if that is what he wants. There isn't a credible or substantial thing the Leafs, their fans or the media can do about that. Marner doesn't have to posture for anyone. His posturing was on the ice and is largely done. He already has phenomenal top 10 in the NHL/top of his team in the playoffs scoring stats over the last 8 years. He already possesses a contract that gave him the exclusive right to make these decisions. Marner is the one who has to be courted. He doesn't have to posture to get people to court him. The only posturing he's going to be observing are from those offering contracts for 2025 and beyond as they fall over themselves and buckets of money trying to sign him.

Treliving didn't give Marner that existing contract. But I think he's handled this situation badly. He doesn't control the media but he could have significantly deflated the Marner media piƱata circus - for example: by making a declaration like he did with Matthews & Nylander announcing a desire to re-sign them last year. Heat is on him more than Marner then. What ever happened to stand up for your teammates? Marner is apparently a popular player in the locker room. The real flaw: Treliving seemed to overlook that whatever he might want to do with Marner requires serious puckering up to kiss Marner's ass because Marner has the final say no matter what - it is in his contract in black and white. Not doing so is a strike against Treliving and whatever he wants to do as it hurts his relationship with Marner. That has been echoed by Friedman saying everyone is getting mad. I certainly don't blame the Marner camp. Stupid is as stupid does.

Why do you say it's media "perceived?" Why is is the stuff about posturing sad? I don't think Treliving overlooked bending over backwards for Darren Ferris at all, I think he said no thanks.
#9
That's a crapload of time sunk into the sciences. So fascinating he moved over to hockey.
#10
Quote from: Joe on June 18, 2024, 08:32:28 AM
Quote from: Bill_Berg on June 18, 2024, 08:04:50 AM
Quote from: Joe on June 18, 2024, 07:10:47 AMListening to the FAN morning show about this tweet and their bottom line is if the leafs re-sign Marner they are the biggest joke franchise in the history of sports. That's what they said.

It's fun being a leafs fan.

Funny, First Up said if they don't resign him, and let him walk, which is 100% up to Marner, that's the worst scenario possible. I guess we're a joke to matter what happens.

It's fun being a Leafs fan.

Yeah and they also said letting him walk for nothing is the worst case scenario.

I just love that the Toronto media wants to make this as difficult as possible for the Leafs and Marner.

I'd like the think that other NHL gms aren't influenced by media rhetoric, but this is the NHL after all, the bushiest of bush leagues.

For a hockey mad town it'd be impossible for sports media not to talk about it. This is the market. If I had the time I'd love to pick the brain of soccer fans watching Juventus or Man U and talk about the media there and how they're the problem.
#11
Quote from: Joe on June 17, 2024, 04:49:37 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 17, 2024, 11:41:41 AM
Quote from: Joe on June 17, 2024, 07:02:04 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 16, 2024, 07:12:43 PMCrazier things have happened but I just feel that a comeback by Edmonton is just not going to happen.

I'm honestly asking - but what crazier thing has happened than a team blowing a 3-0 series lead in the finals?

Well it has happened previously and without the best player in the game beating Gretzky's playoff assist record etc. If one team can do it it wouldn't surprise me much to be on the back of the game's best player, so its not as inconceivable as some other comebacks. And also just generally speaking.


But it's only happened once (in the finals) in the entire history of the nhl. And that was what, in 1940 something? So it does seem to be the rarest of comebacks.

I'm not saying it isn't rare, but it's not like a bunch of scrubs vs. the Panthers, it's Connor McDavid and I think it would be both surprising and not at the same time if they did complete a comeback. Also looking at all 3-0 comebacks in the playoffs it is a 2% rate - definitely not as miniscule as to make it THAT crazy, even if very unlikely. A Leafs team doing it again... now that's crazy :P
#12
Quote from: Joe on June 17, 2024, 07:02:04 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 16, 2024, 07:12:43 PMCrazier things have happened but I just feel that a comeback by Edmonton is just not going to happen.

I'm honestly asking - but what crazier thing has happened than a team blowing a 3-0 series lead in the finals?

Well it has happened previously and without the best player in the game beating Gretzky's playoff assist record etc. If one team can do it it wouldn't surprise me much to be on the back of the game's best player, so its not as inconceivable as some other comebacks. And also just generally speaking.
#13
Crazier things have happened but I just feel that a comeback by Edmonton is just not going to happen.
#14
Quote from: cw on June 13, 2024, 01:06:23 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 13, 2024, 12:44:10 PM
Quote from: cw on June 13, 2024, 10:21:41 AM
Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 03:46:49 PMhttps://twitter.com/nhl_watcher/status/1801024559849537584
- directly quoting the text he gets from Darren Ferris

Previously, after the playoffs
Toronto Sun May 06, 2024 link
Quote"That would be a goal," Marner said when he was asked if he wants to stay in Toronto longterm. "I've expressed my love for this place, this city. I grew up here. We'll start thinking about that now and trying to figure something out."

Hockey News June 4, 2024 Report: Preference From Mitch Marner's Camp to Start Season with Maple Leafs
Quote"As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Marner camp, led by agent Darren Ferris isn't putting together a list of teams for a potential trade. The focus for Marner, who has a full no-move clause, is on honoring the remaining year of his contract and seeing where things go from there," LeBrun wrote.

"That also means I don't think there's an appetite to talk extension come July 1. The preference from the Marner camp is to start the season and see how things go. Perhaps there are talks on an extension eventually, but I don't believe there's a strong desire to get into them this summer."

Now, we have this from Dreger quoting Marner's agent:
Quote"Marner has another year remaining on his contract and he intends to play it out ..."

I wonder how many times Marner has to say it before the media catches on ... (they need their subscriptions, ratings & clicks ..)

The clock is ticking. We're getting closer to the big dominos game on July 1 where after the first dominos fall, a bunch of plan B's, C's & D's get immediately launched, etc as they scramble.
A GM's time is increasingly precious now. He has to have all his ducks lined up.
Are they going to spend a bunch of their critical time on a complex, big $ trade where the player with a NMC hasn't even blessed any destination or provided a willingness to do so and his agent wants him to test the UFA market?
I really doubt it.

Whether Marner accepts being traded or not any time soon is up to Marner and he repeatedly has said he's not interested any time soon. If they don't want him around long term, his agent can take care of that July 1, 2025. It would save him some work - one less offer to review. The Leafs can try to find a 28 yr old, 95 pt replacement on the UFA market ... which I don't recall seeing very often

I think we all understand your position by now.

I was commenting on the recent quote by Dreger.
The Marner camp keeps repeating themselves.
The media and many fans aren't listening.

At the end of the day it really doesn't matter what the media and fans think and they have a right to think however they like. I don't really care what the camp and Marner's agent has said to the media, but if Marner and his camp think that's a problem then he really shouldn't be here.
#15
This series is so over.