Leafs acquire and extend Kirill Marchenko

[leafsjunkie]

Great see see and hear from you here, Nik. Hope to see you around more often.

I had often wondered where Nik went.

 

[YYZ]

I had often wondered where Nik went.

Yes, we have certainly missed all those 10,000 word diatribes on why you and your post are stupid and wrong.

 

[L K]

Knies for Marchenko I think should have been an even trade straight up basically. Lorentz for Woods is probably advantage Columbus. Woods has 1 additional year left on his deal and carries a $1.15mil higher cap hit. Woods has more of a track record with producing in the NHL though. Then we take on Elvis with some retention, which feels like us doing Columbus a favour more than anything. I wonder if what the long-term play is there... so far nothing has really suggested he'll be on LTIR all year so do the Leafs hope to flip him at some point?

That leaves Andrae and a 2nd rounder feeling like they're just in a void somewhere. Really don't get why those were included.

I agree that I don't get why the 2nd was included.

Knies for Marchenko. We were talking about him being the centrepiece of a Werenski trade in the summer. Marchenko is the better player. Knies is signed long term at a great cap hit. He's not overpaid today and if he grows into his deal he's a steal.

Lorentz and Woods are both useless. We know Lorentz was a nice guy and could kill penalties. Woods carries a bigger cap hit and is slightly meaner but overall still useless.

Mrzliskins - doesn't help or hurt us but taking on LTIR money made more sense than trying to move more bodies out on both sides. I think this is just a nothing event.

Andrae and the 2nd. I don't really understand. If the Leafs felt Blankenburg replaced the value of Andrae I get it. If keeping Rielly made Andrae irrelevant I get moving him. If they really like Rifai's camp and like the potential in Danford I get making it more possible that the team can tap them on the shoulder, I get moving on. But his value should have been more than a throw in. The 2nd is the same.

Now as for Knies. He was disappointing last year. Hurt or not, his game stunk a lot of the time. He put up decent points but it felt like he wasn't fitting in. Knies should have been a who can do well in Berube's dump system and he was pretty quiet. I don't want to read too much into training camp games but he looked slow and like he wasn't fitting in.

Who knows what was going on behind the scenes. Trade rumours are one thing. The Montreal docuseries made it pretty clear just how close he was to moving. Then the Werenski rumours got going in the summer. I don't know how committed to Toronto I would be after that.

Hopefully Kirill gets here quick and is able to play tomorrow but we are a better team with him either way and ultimately while losing Knies sucks, we didn't lose anything of on ice value beyond that.

 

[mr grieves]

I was promised a Werenski.

Marchenko's pretty highly regarded in The Athletic's player tiers., and the highlight reel is really exciting. But I'm a bit bummed they turned Knies, who, on paper, looks like a power forward unicorn that a lot of GMs would love to trade for, into another winger, albeit one who's better. I skipped most of last season so, mmv, but I liked Knies and would've felt parting with him for something in a more premium position (1D and 2C are the team's two biggest needs).

Still, excited to see how this whole thing fits together. It's a real DNA change.

 

[ZBBM]

Now I gotta change my spreadsheet and it's making me nervous.

 

[Peter D.]

Keeping Knies would obviously be nice, but to trade up is worth it. Extra pieces and all.

Plus, are we even sure Knies will be as good away from Matthews and playing with Fantilli? He was always a good player who hit the jackpot situationally. If he gets 60 and Marchenko puts up 35/75, which is a possibility, I wouldn't even think twice about this deal looking back.

 

[Nik]

Yes, we have certainly missed all those 10,000 word diatribes on why you and your post are stupid and wrong.

I've cut it down from 10,000 to 8.

 

[Zee]

Marchenko's pretty highly regarded in The Athletic's player tiers., and the highlight reel is really exciting. But I'm a bit bummed they turned Knies, who, on paper, looks like a power forward unicorn that a lot of GMs would love to trade for, into another winger, albeit one who's better. I skipped most of last season so, mmv, but I liked Knies and would've felt parting with him for something in a more premium position (1D and 2C are the team's two biggest needs).

Still, excited to see how this whole thing fits together. It's a real DNA change.

Funny I'm in the same boat as you. I pretty much ignored the Leafs last season as I saw pretty quickly the team and system were garbage. This is a lot change year over year, I guess we'll see if it works. I'm actually looking forward to it again.

 

[Bender]

Keeping Knies would obviously be nice, but to trade up is worth it. Extra pieces and all.

Plus, are we even sure Knies will be as good away from Matthews and playing with Fantilli? He was always a good player who hit the jackpot situationally. If he gets 60 and Marchenko puts up 35/75, which is a possibility, I wouldn't even think twice about this deal looking back.

I mean by all accounts that I've heard is Marchenkos the better player today almost unanimously. They have to, and I mean HAVE to be right about this for this to work but how many times have people referenced Sam Pollock in getting the best player in the trade? If Marchenko is the better, more versatile player then at least the ethos of getting better is there. They also have to be thinking the cap will be less relevant in the coming years.

 

[rjd]

I've cut it down from 10,000 to 8.

Did A.I. help you?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Marchenko's pretty highly regarded in The Athletic's player tiers.

Didn't think to look at the before. Marchenko was placed in the "Tier 3: All-Star" section, with a rating of 3C (Nylander for comparison was in the same tier but given a 3A rating). Other forwards given a 3C were Keller, Point, Necas, Bratt, Scheifele, Bedard, Wilson, and B. Tkachuk. This was his blurb:

Marchenko started at the top of Tier 4 because he's yet to crack the 80-point mark and is coming off a more modest 67-point season, but it didn't take long for him to get argued up the list. He's adored around the NHL and there's a strong feeling he's only scratching the surface of his potential.

"It wouldn't shock me if the next year we had Kirill in the top 10 (wingers)," said a coach. "He's a super dynamic player. I feel about him the way I feel about those guys at the top — the Pastrňáks, the Kaprizovs. All of a sudden, he just makes a play. He's got speed and a big body."

“He’s one of the most underrated players in the league," said another coach. "Maybe he’s just always really good against us. Maybe it’s that nobody talks about him, but he dominates the game consistently. He always has the puck, makes great plays. I’d argue him as high as the 3As, pushing to get into the 2s."

Have to think the Leafs should share that opinion of him having 3A or Tier 2 potential.

For comparison Knies was in the "Tier 5: Support" section with a 5B rating:

It’s a little difficult to square the season Knies just had in Toronto. On the one hand, he’s a power forward — a highly coveted archetype — that put up a career-best 66 points on a bad team while playing through injury. On the other, he struggled mightily to drive the game forward as that same bad team leaned on him more in the absence of Marner.

The end result is someone who can’t do it himself and may not end up a cornerstone piece, but who holds a high floor as a very strong complementary piece.

 

[cw]

.... I don't want to read too much into training camp games but he looked slow and like he wasn't fitting in.

Who knows what was going on behind the scenes. Trade rumours are one thing. The Montreal docuseries made it pretty clear just how close he was to moving. Then the Werenski rumours got going in the summer. I don't know how committed to Toronto I would be after that.
....

I wondered about that as well.

Looking ahead just a little, Matthews has to answer a similar question Marchenko did, by July 1, 2027. I wonder if providing Matthews a better winger to play with (Knies was team worst -30 last season) covered part of their reasoning to proceed with this deal. It is going to be a tough sell regardless as only 3 players on the starting 20 are under 29. Most of their talent is on the back nine of their career. They're not true contenders this year and their window of becoming a true contender can't be very long, if ever, due to declination from age and limited prospects in their system. If they don't make the playoffs, they have little hope of re-signing him. I'm guessing Marchenko can help them more than Knies this year. It will be interesting to see what trade protection Marchenko got .. Nylander, Raddysh & Tanev are currently the only players under contract 3 yrs from now with no move protection should Matthews leave.

 

[Frank E]

This brings the Andrae era to a sudden close.

What are your favourite memories?

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641599571326271489

^__^

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2104910977439261008

2. The delay in completing the Marchenko trade was due to NHL "tagging rules." Essentially, you can’t have more salary committed for future seasons than the cap allows, so Toronto was not allowed to extend the winger without clearing space beyond this year. I suspect that’s why Emil Andrae was included, as he has $1.55 million owed in 2027-28.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2104910977439261008

2. The delay in completing the Marchenko trade was due to NHL "tagging rules." Essentially, you can’t have more salary committed for future seasons than the cap allows, so Toronto was not allowed to extend the winger without clearing space beyond this year. I suspect that’s why Emil Andrae was included, as he has $1.55 million owed in 2027-28.

Columbus GM Don Waddell made it clear he didn’t have to trade an unhappy Marchenko yet, especially as the Blue Jackets hope to compete for a playoff berth. There were at least three reasons he reconsidered. First, they were never offered anyone as appetizing as Knies, especially since he’s locked in at great value. He will benefit from "quiet," not being in three trade rumours per week. Teammates believed he was annoyed at the speculation; had enough of it. Second, the Maple Leafs think so highly of Marchenko — an absolute superstud in their eyes — they were willing to take Elvis Merzlikins and Miles Wood to get it done. They tried their best to hide their interest, but lusted after him, feeling he has the highest ceiling of anyone in this trade. Third, the relationship between Marchenko and head coach Rick Bowness was… uneasy. One very interesting thing: Months ago, word was Marchenko would go to Montreal no problem, but he wasn’t as certain about Toronto. Whatever his initial concerns, he warmed up when it really mattered.

3. A lot of people are asking why Knies was in so many rumours. Fair question. A big reason, I think, is he was one of the only players they could trade without asking permission. The only negative I ever heard about him was concern about the number of injuries he’d suffered in such a short time. That’s it. You have to give quality to get quality.

4. Montreal was aggressive all summer, trying to make it work. But no one they offered excited Columbus as much as Knies. They were creative at the end, trying to involve third teams to either eat Blue Jackets salary or include more palatable players. As for the extension, I do think the Canadiens would have done the six years, $12.5 million AAV Toronto did — even if it altered their tight salary structure. Who else was in there? Boston, the Islanders, Seattle, Tampa Bay. No doubt others. But Knies was impossible to beat.

5. Some other notes on this trade. The condition on the second-round pick is that Columbus gets the lower of Toronto’s two next June. Will Merzlikins be declared unfit to play this season, so the Maple Leafs can access his full cap hit for LTIR usage? The league and NHLPA would have to sign off, but it would make him ineligible through the playoffs. There is talk that it's not an unrealistic scenario. I spent some time over the past couple of days asking around about Wood, who averaged 14 goals a year over a five-full-season stretch in New Jersey. Injuries have limited his effectiveness, but if he can stick to straight lines and pursuit, he can contribute.

Some notes here. Andrae's inclusion makes some sense here. Still miffed about the 2nd rounder. Especially with all the "nobody could offer anything close to Knies!" talk.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

2. The delay in completing the Marchenko trade was due to NHL "tagging rules." Essentially, you can’t have more salary committed for future seasons than the cap allows, so Toronto was not allowed to extend the winger without clearing space beyond this year. I suspect that’s why Emil Andrae was included, as he has $1.55 million owed in 2027-28.

This reminds me the Leafs never brought in a cap guy to replace Pridham in the offseason.

 

[YYZ]

This reminds me the Leafs never brought in a cap guy to replace Pridham in the offseason.

Cap schmap.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2104920218086887724

They traded hostages

Other than Columbus being suboptimal, Knies is going to fit in very well in Bowness' system. He's going to have a chip on his shoulder for quite some time, but he'll also enjoy playing with Fantilli. They'll make for a pretty good tier 2 first line in the league; both of them have a slower game processing speed than true elite first liners, but maybe that helps them match up together better.

 

[herman]

Some notes here. Andrae's inclusion makes some sense here. Still miffed about the 2nd rounder. Especially with all the "nobody could offer anything close to Knies!" talk.

With time being of the essence (or else Merzlikins would be something very awkward to cram in, and he sounds like a deal breaker if not included), I can see why Chayka capitulated to add, even though taking on Wood and Merzlikins should've already been enough. Fortunately the second rounder is specified to be the lower of the two that Toronto was holding.

Leafs acted like they were picking up a younger William-Not-Alex Nylander, and selling high on Knies before he depreciated too quickly under a skating system.