2026-27 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion | Official: Sundin & Chayka to lead front office
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dappleganger
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And they let him orchestrate a bizarre Knies trade for futures under their watchful eye which thankfully didn't go through.
dappleganger
Well-known member
One down season and "REBULD!" ...seems like an overreaction. All factors considered, worth giving it half of next season to see how the team looks under a new coach and reinforcements. Can still sell at next years deadline if this team is still a lost cause.
The core of Lightning players that went on to win multiple cups had a season where they missed the playoffs. I think it's possible for this Leafs team to at least be in the mix in the Eastern Conference next season.
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Bender
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There's near zero ability or reason to rebuild at this juncture without your own first round picks. Raddysh is free acquisition which can let you make moves elsewhere and as far as I know he doesn't have complete trade protection so if we need to pivot there's another asset you can sell off if we need to. The cap is becoming less and less relevant and you need talent (which we don't have currently) to sell to accrue futures.
Bender
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And they got swept in the first round by Columbus one year.
*Edit: Am In the only one who didn't notice that Tampa has been bounced in the first round four years in a row?
herman
Well-known member
The Leafs are pretty fixable and they’re trending in the right direction now. Last year was bad and they made it worse by a) doing nothing b) sticking with Berube c) players stopped trying.
Now they are doing something, Berube is out, and the players are going to want to prove that last year was a one-off.
Raddysh has a NMC for 6 years and 16 team NTC for his last two seasons.
General Manager Matthews will make the decision to rebuild or not around July 1, 2027 - probably very dependent on how he perceives his chances of winning a Cup with this team - in part, because he's won nearly everything else and has the franchise goal scoring record, etc.
In 12 months time, this team probably must look like a true Cup contender (without 1st rounders in 2027 and 2028) to entice Matthews to hang around because he's not getting any younger or any healthier and neither is his team of many 30+ year old players.
The odds makers currently have the Leafs as maybe making the playoffs in April 2027. If the Leafs carry on in the direction they currently are, they have a decent chance of making the playoffs. I'm a Leafs fan hoping for the best. But it would be one heck of a rabbit they have to pull out of a hat to lift a team from 28th to being a top contender that looks like it reliably has a few good Cup runs left in it with its aged roster and shallow farm system - which is what I think they're going to need to look like to re-sign Matthews.
You have to be able to look beyond next season because you can bet Matthews is surrounded by smart hockey people he trusts who will be doing just that as they advise him. (Edit: the same folks who advised him to re-sign for four years instead of eight). The die has been cast by the MLSE board - retool. Auston Matthews will probably make the decision on when this team rebuilds.
If I had to bet on it, I'd bet they'll be in a rebuild as Auston heads south to a good Cup contender in 2027-8.
EDit: our best hope might be that they make the Conf finals or finals and he extends for a year or two.
I'm a Leafs fan. I'd love it if he would hang around and score 60 goals per season for the next 10 years.
But I can't ignore the difficult circumstances that make that so unlikely.
They're probably going for a last hurrah. I'll be cheering for them, hoping for the best, every step of the way.
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Guilt Trip
Well-known member
You mean the fake trade?And they let him orchestrate a bizarre Knies trade for futures under their watchful eye which thankfully didn't go through.
mr grieves
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That was sort of Treliving’s selling point, wasn’t it? Good soldier for whoever signed his checks.
Where Dubas wanted, contra Shanahan, to blow up the Core 4 before all the NMCs kicked in, Treliving was happy to sit pat and go shopping for deadline rentals yet again (the Shanaplan!). When his new boss started singing the praises of Chief, Tre went along with that—to the point of not exploring a coaching change—and, when they told him to dump everything he could for futures, he tried to trade Knies.
He seems like an honest and decent guy—smart enough, as he straightforwardly said all the right things about the UFA market early last summer and the Leafs performance early last fall—but he also seemed pretty bereft of any vision of his own or the conviction to act boldly.
In 2 years time:
You also probably lose Matthews for next to nothing as his deal is over. Are you hoping for a 4th line center on a sign and trade?
Joshua, Lorentz, OEL & Carlo are gone for nothing as their deals expire.
Stolarz, McCabe & Rielly are then 34, turning 35 with 2 years left on their deals = less trade return than you would get now
If you move those folks out now, you're getting a lot more than two 1st round picks.
So there is some point to rebuilding now because you could get some return from the roster now that you won't get in two years.
It comes down to whether you think they can flip a 28th place team into a Cup winner or serious top contender in the next year to retain Matthews (July 1, 2027 decision date). I think they can turn an underachieving roster into a playoff team in that time, overpaying UFAs like they did Raddysh to fill out the roster. But with the clock ticking on the aged members of this roster and not a lot flowing from a barren prospect system (including no first round picks beyond this season), Cup winner or serious top contender seems very unlikely.
All managers make mistakes. It is the managers who fix their mistakes quickly and properly that set themselves apart from the others. Management is getting people to do things for you - including General Managers persuading ownership to do something. Chayka probably wouldn't have got the job if he tried that during the hiring process. He is in a tough spot.
herman
Well-known member
When I say there is no point in rebuilding now, I mean don’t do things that deliberately sink the team in the standings (trading Matthews, Nylander). Everything else should be explored for potential gains. Options like Raddysh, needle-moving top-pair D or top-6 centres are worth moving good wingers and futures for, or throwing the bag of cash at.
The only player of real consequence in the above list is McCabe, and like it or not, solid two-way LD are one of the easier pieces to get on the market.
Moving any of them other than McCabe doesn’t amount to a rebuild. It’s not hard to trade out one or two or three of this list of declining players for futures if need be, or to let them play out the string as the value drop is not very consequential and they have leadership/vibes in the dressing room. Opening cap room and opportunity for younger options holds more value than what the Leafs lose when these deals expire and in some cases it would be a benefit to move them sooner rather than later.
Presenting a consistently competitive team makes Toronto a more attractive destination for NTC/NMC and UFA options, especially as half the teams start balking at spending to the new cap ceilings in the next few seasons.
I want them to win a Cup. Nothing less. Like other Leafs fans, I'm not getting any younger.
If this effort to hang on to Matthews fails, as it probably will, I fear the rebuild starts two years later ... so we're waiting two more years before a shot at the promised land than if we got underway now. I do not think it is unfair to raise my hand to say "I have timing concerns with this direction"
Leafs fans won't notice too much because they'll probably make the playoffs ... until it is time for Matthews to sign on the dotted line in a year from now.
With MLSE bucks, they can roll the roster over and accrue talent assets as they do.
Trade an asset.
Buy a replacement UFA.
Give the replacement UFA excess ice time to pad his stats and then flip him for young prospects/picks.
Maybe they can eat some salary retention during the rebuild.
Can't do that as easily when you're trying to make the playoffs and trying to appear like a true contender so you can hang onto Matthews.
Having said that, they have already made up their minds. They're retooling. So I will do my best to work that problem.
The Marlies 15th place in the regular season standings is the lowest of any championship team in NHL and AHL history.
Maybe we can cling to that for hope!!
Frank E
Well-known member
I thought Tre did some good things as well, he inherited the Marner impending departure sure, no winning that situation...but he signed Tanev and McCabe to reasonable deals. OEL too. I though the Dakota Joshua was a good gamble...same with Maccelli and Stecher. He went all in on Carlo, and because Carlo didn't play well, and Minten did, that deal will haunt him.
I don't thing he hamstrung the team in terms of terrible contracts.
I don't thing he hamstrung the team in terms of terrible contracts.
dappleganger
Well-known member
Bender
Well-known member
It's comments like these that make me think you are in no way trying to engage in good faith arguments because everybody knows that's not what anybody on this board hopes or would do given the circumstances. And yet again invoke your favourite person in the universe as if that is the only rule that could ever be true about every other player. Unbelievable.
I can be specious too if you want. Do you want the Leafs to give 1OA picks to Boston and Philly?
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Bender
Well-known member
No, everyone will be gone for nothing and the Leafs will be the Marlies #strawman
Bender
Well-known member
Some on this forum have said they didn't feel so bad about first round exits because the team wasn't ever a contender in the core 4 era. I guess we should've traded all of the core 4 in 2019 and never believe in a team unless they're perfect on paper like the Avs. Guess we should roll over and hand Philly and Boston 1OA.
I think people are forgetting just how many drafted and developed players were actually on Carolina and Vegas. 6 for Carolina and 2 for Vegas, and only 3 from the expansion draft. Florida had Barkov, Ekblad and Lundell - that's it.
I get the rebuild angle, and I do want to get assets for players who have no intention of staying long term, but it's premature to do it right now, but nobody is saying hang on to them at all costs and walk them to free agency. It's also silly to not pursue free agents considering they can also at some point be turned into assets after acquiring them for free. I don't see why we can't make some intelligent trades and see where we are come September. If they have to pivot I think they are smart enough to know and they will - that's just my hope with a front office not afraid to make moves.
I also don't have much interest in selling Auston for what Brady got the Sens right now and would want better than a bunch of lottery tickets.
I think people are forgetting just how many drafted and developed players were actually on Carolina and Vegas. 6 for Carolina and 2 for Vegas, and only 3 from the expansion draft. Florida had Barkov, Ekblad and Lundell - that's it.
I get the rebuild angle, and I do want to get assets for players who have no intention of staying long term, but it's premature to do it right now, but nobody is saying hang on to them at all costs and walk them to free agency. It's also silly to not pursue free agents considering they can also at some point be turned into assets after acquiring them for free. I don't see why we can't make some intelligent trades and see where we are come September. If they have to pivot I think they are smart enough to know and they will - that's just my hope with a front office not afraid to make moves.
I also don't have much interest in selling Auston for what Brady got the Sens right now and would want better than a bunch of lottery tickets.
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It varies with the circumstances.
For Matthews, you would probably get more if he's able to demonstrate he is free of health issues than you would right now
For Rielly, you would probably get more if he's able to demonstrate the change in coach & system gets him back to closer to where he was before Berube showed up.
Generically, if a team gets an improvement to their roster in October/November - AND doesn't give up equal roster talent, that should have more value than the same player arriving just before the deadline because their chances of making the playoffs or getting a better seed is improved (for example).
If the player has a 24 team NTC or a NMC and has only given his team a couple of teams, that takes a bunch of the bidding fun out of it and the difference likely wouldn't be as great.
Some of that early season benefit may be offset by the stupid factor. GMs under pressure get stupid and might overpay. Closer to the deadline, more GMs would be feeling the pressure than earlier in the season so I feel more stupidity occurs at the deadline. We also see a lot of stupidity around July 1 though that tends to relate more to contracts than trades.
Generally, getting a player in October should be worth more than getting the same player at the deadline. But circumstances and stupidity could intervene.
It's comments like these that make me think you are in no way trying to engage in good faith arguments because everybody knows that's not what anybody on this board hopes or would do given the circumstances. And yet again invoke your favourite person in the universe as if that is the only rule that could ever be true about every other player. Unbelievable.
I can be specious too if you want. Do you want the Leafs to give 1OA picks to Boston and Philly?
No, you are bluntly missing the point as you often do.
If you wait until the bitter end on Matthews, you will not get as much in a return. That is the point.
Let me use another example: 5th round pick for Raddysh.
Sign and trade at the end of a contract often does not return as much relative to the talent being signed.
If you trade Matthews now or a year before his deal is done, you should get more assets/talent in return.
At the deadline, Calgary traded Rasmus Andersson to Vegas for defenseman Zach Whitecloud, defense prospect Abram Wiebe, a 2027 conditional first-round pick, and a conditional second-round pick in 2028. If Calgary hung on to Andersson and was looking at a sign and trade now, convince the class they would get the same return. You can't so don't waste everyone's time.
Bullfrog
Well-known member
Just speaking for myself: I don't mind some of the 1st round losses because some of those teams and series were entertaining. The regular seasons were fun, and I got to see some amazing talent, including with Marner.
Hockey's a sport, and it's entertainment. I'm totally cool with those who live and die based on the team's success, but it's just not that important to me.