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WCF: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche

CarltonTheBear

CarltonTheBear

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2055148942698938793

Game 1: Vegas at Colorado -- 8 p.m. ET, Wednesday, May 20 (ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 2: Vegas at Colorado -- 8 p.m. ET, Friday, May 22 (ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 3: Colorado at Vegas -- 8 p.m. ET, Sunday, May 24 (ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 4: Colorado at Vegas -- 9 p.m. ET, Tuesday, May 26 (ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS)
* Game 5: Vegas at Colorado -- 8 p.m. ET, Thursday, May 28 (ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS)
* Game 6: Colorado at Vegas -- 8 p.m. ET, Saturday, May 30 (ABC, SN, CBC, TVAS)
* Game 7: Vegas at Colorado -- 8 p.m. ET, Monday, June 1 (ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS)
* - If necessary
 
If Makar gets hurt it gives Vegas a chance but I think this is going to be a massacre. Vegas benefitted from an easier path and I don't think Vegas matches up well
 
L K said:
If Makar gets hurt it gives Vegas a chance but I think this is going to be a massacre. Vegas benefitted from an easier path and I don't think Vegas matches up well
Click to expand...
Colorado list no injuries but Makar is already hurt some - recurring shoulder injury he originally hurt against Calgary. He has missed practices. Don't know his status for tonight but he may be doubtful for game 1. They'll pound that shoulder if & when he plays.

Lauzon & captain Mark Stone are injured for Vegas and apparently not likely for games 1 & 2.
Karlsson's return from 6 months on the IR has helped but they need all the help they can get.

Avs should take the series handily.
 
With Makar since 2019, Avs are a .678 team during the regular season
Without Makar since 2019, Avs are a .638 team during the regular season
With Lauzon & captain Mark Stone probably out for Vegas, it is probably close to a saw off.
 
4EVRLEAFAN said:
Vegas looked good tonight.
Click to expand...

They did. It is arguable that the key difference was a between the wickets soft goal allowed by Wedgewood.
Edge in scoring chances to the Avs - in part because they were behind all game.

But I was reflecting on what is happening? Why?

Colorado got stronger down the middle with the addition of Kadri & Roy.

Vegas got stronger down the middle with the return of Karlsson after 6 months on LTIR and acquiring Dowd to go with Eichel & Hertl. That allowed Marner to move back from center to his natural right wing position which has probably helped to spring him offensively.

Vegas added Rasmus Andersson via trade to their top 4 D
and
Carter Hart, who was injured much of the season - has probably had the biggest impact on them defensively - upgrading them significantly in goal.

A confounding thing is why coach Tortorella would give Marner the most ice time among the Vegas forwards in a big game like this? Is it because it is games 1-4 and they "don't count in the playoffs" (according to some) - particularly when they flip home ice advantage? The game 1 winner tends to win the series 68.x% of the time - (so according to some, points in game 1 don't matter). Tortorella is among a string of Cup winning coaches giving Marner the most or second most ice time among their forwards in the playoffs. How come Tortorella and the other Cup winning coaches aren't as smart as some Leafs fans when it comes to doling out ice time to Marner? Marner scored his league leading 19th playoff point and his +2 climbed him to a league leading +13 for these playoffs. Marner leads the league in short handed playoff points since he entered the league.

The Knights have a worse pts win% without Mark Stone than the Avs do without Makar.
Avs are probably still favored though it looks like the Knights intend to make a real contest of it.
 
cw said:
They did. It is arguable that the key difference was a between the wickets soft goal allowed by Wedgewood.
Edge in scoring chances to the Avs - in part because they were behind all game.

But I was reflecting on what is happening? Why?

Colorado got stronger down the middle with the addition of Kadri & Roy.

Vegas got stronger down the middle with the return of Karlsson after 6 months on LTIR and acquiring Dowd to go with Eichel & Hertl. That allowed Marner to move back from center to his natural right wing position which has probably helped to spring him offensively.

Vegas added Rasmus Andersson via trade to their top 4 D
and
Carter Hart, who was injured much of the season - has probably had the biggest impact on them defensively - upgrading them significantly in goal.

A confounding thing is why coach Tortorella would give Marner the most ice time among the Vegas forwards in a big game like this? Is it because it is games 1-4 and they "don't count in the playoffs" (according to some) - particularly when they flip home ice advantage? The game 1 winner tends to win the series 68.x% of the time - (so according to some, points in game 1 don't matter). Tortorella is among a string of Cup winning coaches giving Marner the most or second most ice time among their forwards in the playoffs. How come Tortorella and the other Cup winning coaches aren't as smart as some Leafs fans when it comes to doling out ice time to Marner? Marner scored his league leading 19th playoff point and his +2 climbed him to a league leading +13 for these playoffs. Marner leads the league in short handed playoff points since he entered the league.

The Knights have a worse pts win% without Mark Stone than the Avs do without Makar.
Avs are probably still favored though it looks like the Knights intend to make a real contest of it.
Click to expand...
I really think putting him on the second line has really helped, I can't remember if we tried that or not.
 
4EVRLEAFAN said:
I really think putting him on the second line has really helped, I can't remember if we tried that or not.
Click to expand...
Yes, when Nylander was on Matthews right wing, Marner was with Tavares for example.

Getting him out of playing 2nd line center for injured Karlsson and back to his natural right wing has helped.

Eichel & Marner are both great distributors of the puck. I do not think having them both on the 1st PP unit is ideal.
Marner's PP points were down this season because of that in my opinion. Marner made a beautiful pass on the PP for the second goal.
 
AI SAYS:

Why is Mitch Marner playing better in Vegas than he did in Toronto?



Mitch Marner is dominating the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Vegas Golden Knights primarily because a drastic reduction in media pressure, a shift in team structure, and tactical system changes have unlocked a more aggressive version of his game. After coming over from the Toronto Maple Leafs in a blockbuster July 2025 sign-and-trade, Marner has silenced critics by leading the postseason in scoring during Vegas's deep Western Conference Final run.
Analysts, teammates, and tracking data point to several key reasons for his sudden playoff transformation:

1. Escape from the Toronto "Pressure Cooker"
  • Lowered Stakes: In Toronto, Marner was a hometown kid carrying the burden of a 1967 Stanley Cup drought, making him the primary lightning rod for criticism during early playoff exits.
  • Anonymity and Freedom: In Las Vegas, he can breathe. His teammate Ivan Barbashev noted that Toronto’s media puts immense pressure on players, whereas Vegas embraces a locker room full of stars, allowing Marner to just focus on hockey.

2. Linemate Structure and Line Balance
  • No More "Star-Stacking": In Toronto, Marner and Auston Matthews were often tied together on the top line out of necessity to drive the entire offense.
  • Complementary Support: Vegas builds three balanced lines that can score. Playing alongside heavier, defensively responsible players like Brett Howden allows Marner to be a fluid playmaker rather than carrying the physical burden of driving a line by himself.

3. Tactical and Systemic Adjustments
  • High-Danger Aggression: Under John Tortorella's system, Marner is attacking the slot. In his last four postseasons with Toronto combined, Marner scored just one high-danger goal. In the 2026 playoffs alone, he is tied for the NHL lead with five high-danger goals.
  • Increased Zone Time: According to NHL EDGE tracking data, Marner is spending 45.3% of his ice time in the offensive zone this postseason, compared to just 40.2% during his final playoff run with the Leafs.

4. Clutch Performance in Elimination Games
  • Overcoming the "Disappearing" Narrative: With Toronto, Marner took intense heat for scoring only one goal across 16 potential series-clinching games.
  • Clutch Moments: In the 2026 playoffs, he has already buried massive goals when it matters most, including a game-winner to eliminate the Utah Mammoth in Game 6 of Round 1, and an unbelievable 180 between-the-legs breakaway goal to spark the Game 6 clincher over Anaheim in Round 2.
If you want to look closer at his current run, I can provide his exact line combinations in Vegas or pull his special teams statistics from this postseason.
 
cabber24 said:
AI SAYS:

Why is Mitch Marner playing better in Vegas than he did in Toronto?



Mitch Marner is dominating the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Vegas Golden Knights primarily because a drastic reduction in media pressure, a shift in team structure, and tactical system changes have unlocked a more aggressive version of his game. After coming over from the Toronto Maple Leafs in a blockbuster July 2025 sign-and-trade, Marner has silenced critics by leading the postseason in scoring during Vegas's deep Western Conference Final run.
Analysts, teammates, and tracking data point to several key reasons for his sudden playoff transformation:

1. Escape from the Toronto "Pressure Cooker"
  • Lowered Stakes: In Toronto, Marner was a hometown kid carrying the burden of a 1967 Stanley Cup drought, making him the primary lightning rod for criticism during early playoff exits.
  • Anonymity and Freedom: In Las Vegas, he can breathe. His teammate Ivan Barbashev noted that Toronto’s media puts immense pressure on players, whereas Vegas embraces a locker room full of stars, allowing Marner to just focus on hockey.

2. Linemate Structure and Line Balance
  • No More "Star-Stacking": In Toronto, Marner and Auston Matthews were often tied together on the top line out of necessity to drive the entire offense.
  • Complementary Support: Vegas builds three balanced lines that can score. Playing alongside heavier, defensively responsible players like Brett Howden allows Marner to be a fluid playmaker rather than carrying the physical burden of driving a line by himself.

3. Tactical and Systemic Adjustments
  • High-Danger Aggression: Under John Tortorella's system, Marner is attacking the slot. In his last four postseasons with Toronto combined, Marner scored just one high-danger goal. In the 2026 playoffs alone, he is tied for the NHL lead with five high-danger goals.
  • Increased Zone Time: According to NHL EDGE tracking data, Marner is spending 45.3% of his ice time in the offensive zone this postseason, compared to just 40.2% during his final playoff run with the Leafs.

4. Clutch Performance in Elimination Games
  • Overcoming the "Disappearing" Narrative: With Toronto, Marner took intense heat for scoring only one goal across 16 potential series-clinching games.
  • Clutch Moments: In the 2026 playoffs, he has already buried massive goals when it matters most, including a game-winner to eliminate the Utah Mammoth in Game 6 of Round 1, and an unbelievable 180 between-the-legs breakaway goal to spark the Game 6 clincher over Anaheim in Round 2.
If you want to look closer at his current run, I can provide his exact line combinations in Vegas or pull his special teams statistics from this postseason.
Click to expand...
I don't believe that is AI. It didn't tell you how smart you were for noticing that Marner was playing better in the playoffs.
 
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