Other draft day targets

[Nik]

So as of right now the Leafs have the following picks:

#1
#27-30(Pittsburgh)
#31
#56(Washington)
#61
#70(New Jersey)
#91
#100(Colorado)
#121
#151
#177-180(St. Louis)
#181

So that makes 8 picks in the top 100. Draft day will be fun.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

So as of right now the Leafs have the following picks:

#1
#27-30(Pittsburgh)
#31
#56(Washington)
#61
#70(New Jersey)
#91
#100(Colorado)
#121
#151
#177-180(St. Louis)
#181

So that makes 8 picks in the top 100. Draft day will be fun.

Exciting!

Given your outlook in the B prospects thread, do you think there is more chance this year that they'll trade up a little bit to target specific players?

In terms of sheer numbers, if they can package one or two of those B guys with a pick to move up, they might consider it.

I know the consensus is generally that trading up isn't a great idea based on pick valuation,  but the Leafs might be in a bit of a unique spot at this draft just in terms of sheer numbers.

 

[Nik]

 
Exciting!

Given your outlook in the B prospects thread, do you think there is more chance this year that they'll trade up a little bit to target specific players?

In terms of sheer numbers, if they can package one or two of those B guys with a pick to move up, they might consider it.

I know the consensus is generally that trading up isn't a great idea based on pick valuation,  but the Leafs might be in a bit of a unique spot at this draft just in terms of sheer numbers.

My guess is that trading up would almost certainly involve additional picks rather than prospects. I'd guess that the sort of fast paced draft day trades don't allow for teams to really sit around and say "Hey, what did we think of Martin Dzierkals' and what he did this year" as opposed to just saying, you know, "Who can we take in the third round we like?" with all of their relevant scouting information in front of them.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

 
Exciting!

Given your outlook in the B prospects thread, do you think there is more chance this year that they'll trade up a little bit to target specific players?

In terms of sheer numbers, if they can package one or two of those B guys with a pick to move up, they might consider it.

I know the consensus is generally that trading up isn't a great idea based on pick valuation,  but the Leafs might be in a bit of a unique spot at this draft just in terms of sheer numbers.

My guess is that trading up would almost certainly involve additional picks rather than prospects. I'd guess that the sort of fast paced draft day trades don't allow for teams to really sit around and say "Hey, what did we think of Martin Dzierkals' and what he did this year" as opposed to just saying, you know, "Who can we take in the third round we like?" with all of their relevant scouting information in front of them.

I think you're probably right, but at the same time they'll have all their pro and amateur scouts in one spot, so you'd think they have a good idea about most guys on offer.

It's unlikely the Leafs are offering some plug from the 9th tier of the Latvian Super Liga. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Split this from the Matthews thread, thought it'd be a good way to start talking about some other players we might be looking at. Especially now that we have a good idea where the Pittsburgh pick will land.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't know if this was intentional or not, but last year the Leafs picks went Forward-defenceman-F-D-F-D-F-D-F. I wonder if we'll see that happen again. I'd like to see a goalie thrown in near the top though. Maybe F-D-G-D-F and so on.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

If they can get aggressive I'd like to see them come away with someone like Sergachev/Juolevi/Brown/McLeod.

 

[ZBBM]

I don't know if this was intentional or not, but last year the Leafs picks went Forward-defenceman-F-D-F-D-F-D-F. I wonder if we'll see that happen again. I'd like to see a goalie thrown in near the top though. Maybe F-D-G-D-F and so on.

That's what I say.  Who are the best goalie prospects likely to be available?  Any chance they'd use the PIT pick for one?

 

[Omallley]

I don't know if this was intentional or not, but last year the Leafs picks went Forward-defenceman-F-D-F-D-F-D-F. I wonder if we'll see that happen again. I'd like to see a goalie thrown in near the top though. Maybe F-D-G-D-F and so on.

Assuming the Leafs don't trade up or dump a bunch of picks, I think this would be a great draft to load up on goalies. They're finicky to draft right and it is an obvious position of weakness for the Leafs.

Just to prove the point in an oversimplified way...if you look at the top 10 goalies by wins this past year and you have an undrafted player, 1 drafted in the 8th round, 1 drafted in the 7th round, 1 in the 4th round, 2 in the 3rd round, 1 in the 2nd round, and 3 in the 1st round. Basically all over the place. If you look at the top 10 scorers in the league, you have 1 unfrafted player, 1 drafted in the 5th round, 1 in the 4th, and 7 drafted in the 1st round - a much better "hit" rate.

If there's a draft to roll the dice on a bunch of goalies, surely it is the one you have a boatload of picks *and* there's consensus that the pool is pretty deep.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If there's a draft to roll the dice on a bunch of goalies, surely it is the one you have a boatload of picks *and* there's consensus that the pool is pretty deep.

It's an intriguing idea, especially if we stay at 12 or more picks. Grab one from the CHL, one from Europe, and one who's headed to the college route. That way their development is a little staggered.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's what I say.  Who are the best goalie prospects likely to be available?  Any chance they'd use the PIT pick for one?

Carter Hart and Filip Gustavsson are considered the top-2 goalies in the draft. Both are projected to go early-to-mid 2nd round, unless a team drafting late in the 1st reaches because of a need for a goalie. I'd plan to use the 31st overall pick on Hart, and use the Pittsburgh pick on a defenceman (either through staying where it lands or trading up).

 

[Frank E]

I don't know if this was intentional or not, but last year the Leafs picks went Forward-defenceman-F-D-F-D-F-D-F. I wonder if we'll see that happen again. I'd like to see a goalie thrown in near the top though. Maybe F-D-G-D-F and so on.

Assuming the Leafs don't trade up or dump a bunch of picks, I think this would be a great draft to load up on goalies. They're finicky to draft right and it is an obvious position of weakness for the Leafs.

Just to prove the point in an oversimplified way...if you look at the top 10 goalies by wins this past year and you have an undrafted player, 1 drafted in the 8th round, 1 drafted in the 7th round, 1 in the 4th round, 2 in the 3rd round, 1 in the 2nd round, and 3 in the 1st round. Basically all over the place. If you look at the top 10 scorers in the league, you have 1 unfrafted player, 1 drafted in the 5th round, 1 in the 4th, and 7 drafted in the 1st round - a much better "hit" rate.

If there's a draft to roll the dice on a bunch of goalies, surely it is the one you have a boatload of picks *and* there's consensus that the pool is pretty deep.

Huh.  That's interesting.

I guess it really is tough to project the success of goalies when they're 18 yrs old. 

 

[Highlander]

The interesting thing is the did stagger between F-D-F-D.  Agreed we need a Goalie prospect or two and the new Leaf brass has stated their intention to ALWAYS pick the best player available at the time of the pick, but it makes sense with the forwards they have in fold, that with Matthews it may be more like F-D-G-D-D-F-G-D-F-D
My god it starting to look like Fuggetaboutit.

 

[Nik]

I spent a little bit of time looking through the mock draft sites and a name that looked interesting was Samuel Girard. He's very small for a defenseman(he's listed at 5'9, 164) but had 74 points in 64 games for Shawinigan.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Someone brought this guy up on Reddit.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=324561

Oleg Sosunov 18 years old dman who is 6'8" and 243lbs.

If he can skate, he might get taken a little higher than previously predicted.

ISS has him as the 25th EU Skater so right now he's probably projected in the 3rd/4th round.

I wonder if a team with multiple picks (cough) burns an early third on him.

 

[Redleaf]

The interesting thing is the did stagger between F-D-F-D.  Agreed we need a Goalie prospect or two and the new Leaf brass has stated their intention to ALWAYS pick the best player available at the time of the pick, but it makes sense with the forwards they have in fold, that with Matthews it may be more like F-D-G-D-D-F-G-D-F-D
My god it starting to look like Fuggetaboutit.

I'd do D-D-D-G-D-D-D twice

 

[ZBBM]

Someone brought this guy up on Reddit.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=324561

Oleg Sosunov 18 years old dman who is 6'8" and 243lbs.

If he can skate, he might get taken a little higher than previously predicted.

ISS has him as the 25th EU Skater so right now he's probably projected in the 3rd/4th round.

I wonder if a team with multiple picks (cough) burns an early third on him.

Sometimes teams who burn an early pick on a huge d-man get chara'd.

 

[Highlander]

Good one Bucky

 

[slapshot]

It will be interesting to compare last year's four picks, two in second round, two in third with what they take this year, with same options (if none are traded).

Last year                                              This year
Round        Pick #      Player                  Round        Pick #      Player
2              34            Travis Dermitt      2              31            ??? 
2              61            Jeremy Bracco      2              56            ??? 
3              65            Andrew Nielsen      3              61            ???
3              68            Martins Dzierkals    3              70            ???

I think the Leafs have to be very pleased with the way all four of those players chosen in rounds 2 and 3 performed this past year. It might impact on whether they bother to trade up or not? They may simply go for quantity in picks, relying on the scouts, and figuring the percentages are better that some turn out the more you have to choose from. Maybe, if they could move up to pick one of the top-rated d-men they might, but I don't expect them to give up a ridiculous amount to do that. They may just hold the course.

Also, noteworthy was Dmytro Timashov, appears to be a steal in the 5th round at 121 last year. Had a solid camp and pre-season, followed by a strong year in the Q, and a solid playoff...

If the Leafs can have another really solid draft year (and no reason to think they can't), they will really have stockpiled a massive haul of young talent.

Players that might be trade bait at the draft may include: Josh Leivo or Stuart Percy, who probably gotten all they can in terms of AHL experience. It's probably time the make the jump with the Leafs (probably doubtful) or somewhere else.

I agree snagging a goalie prospect (or two) isn't a bad idea.

 

[Omallley]

I don't know if this was intentional or not, but last year the Leafs picks went Forward-defenceman-F-D-F-D-F-D-F. I wonder if we'll see that happen again. I'd like to see a goalie thrown in near the top though. Maybe F-D-G-D-F and so on.

Assuming the Leafs don't trade up or dump a bunch of picks, I think this would be a great draft to load up on goalies. They're finicky to draft right and it is an obvious position of weakness for the Leafs.

Just to prove the point in an oversimplified way...if you look at the top 10 goalies by wins this past year and you have an undrafted player, 1 drafted in the 8th round, 1 drafted in the 7th round, 1 in the 4th round, 2 in the 3rd round, 1 in the 2nd round, and 3 in the 1st round. Basically all over the place. If you look at the top 10 scorers in the league, you have 1 unfrafted player, 1 drafted in the 5th round, 1 in the 4th, and 7 drafted in the 1st round - a much better "hit" rate.

If there's a draft to roll the dice on a bunch of goalies, surely it is the one you have a boatload of picks *and* there's consensus that the pool is pretty deep.

Huh.  That's interesting.

I guess it really is tough to project the success of goalies when they're 18 yrs old.

Definitely tough. Because I am a bit of a data geek, I put together some charts on goalies being drafted from 1991-2010 (wanted to give the folks 5 years to become established, although folks could argue that isn't enough time). I scraped the data from hockeydb, and made one addition/generalization - grouping goalies into "busts", "backups" and "starters". I tried to keep it common sense and while some folks might argue a couple of the choices, I think it makes the data easier to consume. Have a look: https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.sullivan4278#!/vizhome/NHLGoalieDraft1991-2010/Story1

The data is interesting. Some conclusions you can draw:

1) Starters coming out of the CHL are mostly drafted in the early rounds (1/2).
2) Starters coming out of Europe are overwhelmingly found in later rounds (5th or later).
3) Batting averages - Chance of drafting a goalie (starter or backup) at different points in the draft

1st/2nd round:
-CHL: 36.5%
-Europe: 45%

3rd/4th round:
-CHL: 21.5%
-Europe: 26%

5th round or later:
-CHL:10.3%
-Europe: 30.8%

Moral of the story: Drafting 11 euro goalies and Matthews needs to be the plan, obviously.