Matthews signs 5 year contract, $11.634mil AAV

[disco]

Bottom line Auston's camp could've demanded the NHL max contract and years:
$15.9-million x 8 years. (20% of cap) He would've got this from someone.
But he didn't. He worked with the Leafs to help with the cap.
We'll see what Marner's camp does.

 

[Nik]

Bottom line Auston's camp could've demanded the NHL max contract and years:
$15.9-million x 8 years. (20% of cap) He would've got this from someone.

I don't think it's a sure thing that he would have gotten that if he'd wanted it but, again, there still isn't any attempt to even engage with the question of what Dubas should do differently given the parameters of what these guys are looking for.

 

[Bullfrog]

With the exception of Tavares, who took less to sign with the Leafs, it seems like Dubas is fine paying market value for his star players and not getting any sort of "discount" as players on other teams have done in the past.  We look at the Nylander deal, he waits a full 2 months to sign it, and it comes in at 6.9, which is right about what everyone thought his value was.  It's a good deal for Nylander, especially when you consider all the bonus money paid.  Matthews, while 11.6 is a good cap number for him, doesn't give up any significant amount of UFA years, so again, it's a good deal for the player and not the team.  I can't see Marner being any different. He'll expect to be paid accordingly, and not give any sort of break whatsoever, be that on cap hit, or UFA years.

Look, I'm happy these guys are Leafs, but I'd like management to be able to do what other teams have done and get some sort of a  break while signing players. Otherwise it puts the Leafs at a disadvantage going forward.  If the Leafs are the only team in the league that can't seem to convince players to take less (or give up more UFA years), then the Leafs are absolutely at a disadvantage.  You would think the fact the Leafs are able to pay upwards of 95% of the contract in bonus money, making it lockout proof would be another advantage they could use to get the cap hit or term more in their favour, but again, it seems this makes no difference.

Shouldn't we put some weight into the GM's comments that this deal is good for the team? In fact, it was the player's wish for the eight year contract, but everyone, including the GM knew that it would then have to be a higher AAV, which would be bad for the team (at least for next season.)

It is simply a fact that he would have gotten much more on a longer deal.

And I disagree with your opinion that the Leafs never get a break. Kadri's and Rielly's deals are incredible and people commented on that opinion as soon as they were signed. Marleau's deal is bad.

 

[Highlander]

With the exception of Tavares, who took less to sign with the Leafs, it seems like Dubas is fine paying market value for his star players and not getting any sort of "discount" as players on other teams have done in the past.  We look at the Nylander deal, he waits a full 2 months to sign it, and it comes in at 6.9, which is right about what everyone thought his value was.  It's a good deal for Nylander, especially when you consider all the bonus money paid.  Matthews, while 11.6 is a good cap number for him, doesn't give up any significant amount of UFA years, so again, it's a good deal for the player and not the team.  I can't see Marner being any different. He'll expect to be paid accordingly, and not give any sort of break whatsoever, be that on cap hit, or UFA years.

Look, I'm happy these guys are Leafs, but I'd like management to be able to do what other teams have done and get some sort of a  break while signing players. Otherwise it puts the Leafs at a disadvantage going forward.  If the Leafs are the only team in the league that can't seem to convince players to take less (or give up more UFA years), then the Leafs are absolutely at a disadvantage.  You would think the fact the Leafs are able to pay upwards of 95% of the contract in bonus money, making it lockout proof would be another advantage they could use to get the cap hit or term more in their favour, but again, it seems this makes no difference.

Shouldn't we put some weight into the GM's comments that this deal is good for the team? In fact, it was the player's wish for the eight year contract, but everyone, including the GM knew that it would then have to be a higher AAV, which would be bad for the team (at least for next season.)

It is simply a fact that he would have gotten much more on a longer deal.

And I disagree with your opinion that the Leafs never get a break. Kadri's and Rielly's deals are incredible and people commented on that opinion as soon as they were signed. Marleau's deal is bad.

Contracts such as Marleau's are a thing of the past (or will be soon), Mirtle tackles this subject very convincingly in the Athletic article yesterday or the day before. Happening in baseball as we speak, see how many unsigned free agents there are that are over 28 or 30.  They are not getting the deals they used to get because the expired date is running out. 

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Eichel's first 2 seasons:

113 points, .795 ppg

8 years, 10 million AAV, what a win for Buffalo!

Nylander's first two seasons:

122 points, .748 ppg

6 years, 6.9 million AAV, WAHHHHHHH WHY CAN'T DUBAS SIGN GOOD DEALS!

What he said.

I don't see what he said unless someone quotes it.

With respect to Eichel's contract, he's still under contract for 2 seasons while Nylander gets to hit the open market and get paid large.  There's tremendous value in that.  Leafs might not be able to afford Nylander in 5 years, while Buffalo will still have Eichel.

The Leafs paid $3M less per season for someone with better stats. The fact that Eichel is now playing well has nothing to do with it. My point is, when the contract was signed Nylander was probably a little under value and in 2 years will be WAY under value, while Eichel is just living up to his contract this year only. If he reverts back to his previous 2 years than the Sabres WAY overpaid. You keep saying how much of a value Eichel's contract is because they bought UFA years, but there is no definitive proof they bought good UFA years.

Not sure I'm following your logic here.  First of all Eichel's $10M contract kicked in last season only, and he was nearly a point a game player.  Nylander's contract of 6.9 kicks in this year, and he's nowhere close to a point a game.  Eichel this season (2nd year of his 10M) and he's over a point a game, so he's not just living up to his contract, he's already exceeding it.

Sure, there's inherent risk that maybe he doesn't perform that well in seasons 3-8, but can't you say the same thing about Nylander?  So far Eichel has improved every season so there's no reason to believe he'll suddenly drop off in his mid 20s.  If he continues to produce at a PPG pace or better, he's well worth the 10.  If Nylander never gets above 60 points, is he worth 7?

That's still called hindsight man.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

With the exception of Tavares, who took less to sign with the Leafs, it seems like Dubas is fine paying market value for his star players and not getting any sort of "discount" as players on other teams have done in the past.  We look at the Nylander deal, he waits a full 2 months to sign it, and it comes in at 6.9, which is right about what everyone thought his value was.  It's a good deal for Nylander, especially when you consider all the bonus money paid.  Matthews, while 11.6 is a good cap number for him, doesn't give up any significant amount of UFA years, so again, it's a good deal for the player and not the team.  I can't see Marner being any different. He'll expect to be paid accordingly, and not give any sort of break whatsoever, be that on cap hit, or UFA years.

Look, I'm happy these guys are Leafs, but I'd like management to be able to do what other teams have done and get some sort of a  break while signing players. Otherwise it puts the Leafs at a disadvantage going forward.  If the Leafs are the only team in the league that can't seem to convince players to take less (or give up more UFA years), then the Leafs are absolutely at a disadvantage.  You would think the fact the Leafs are able to pay upwards of 95% of the contract in bonus money, making it lockout proof would be another advantage they could use to get the cap hit or term more in their favour, but again, it seems this makes no difference.

So, criticising the GM for being ?fine with paying market value? seems like a strange place to set the bar of expectation. Am I misunderstanding?

Also, if you?re basing your cap number on Eichel, remember that in October 2017 when he signed his deal, it was under a cap of $75M. The difference in pct (Eichel, $10/$75 = 13.3%, Mathews $11.6/79.5 = 14.5%) is not huge, and I?d say Mathews is the better player... my guess is that for 8 years, Mathews wanted a comparable cap hit to McDavid (12.5/75 =16.7%) which in today?s market is $13.25M. (Note: not arguing that Mathews is McDavid, just what the 8 year ask would have been).

All speculation of course, but to conclude we got nothing out of reducing contract length by comparing Mathews to Eichel seems backwards to me.

*edit: initially did my (today) numbers of an $83m rather than $79.5... no idea where I got 83 from... doesn?t really change my point though

 

[Nik]

Also, if you?re basing your cap number on Eichel, remember that in October 2017 when he signed his deal, it was under a cap of $75M. The difference in pct (Eichel, $10/$75 = 13.3%, Mathews $11.6/83 = 13.9%) is very small, and I?d say Mathews is the better player... my guess is that for 8 years, Mathews wanted a comparable cap hit to McDavid (12.5/75 =16.7%) which in today?s market is $13.8M. (Note: not arguing that Mathews is McDavid, just what the 8 year ask would have been).

There's no need to guess, multiple reports yesterday were that Matthews wanted that much, at least, on a 8 year deal.

The criticism of Dubas here is about his not somehow being able to snap his fingers with the Infinity Gauntlet and get players to lower what they were willing to sign for.

 

[Bender]

I keep hearing the narrative of "The Leafs should've signed Matthews in the summer." Why would Matthews negotiate over the summer? Couldn't he (and realistically any of the Leafs big 3) just say hey, we're betting on ourselves so we're going to wait until at least during the last year of our deal to re-negotiate. I can't imagine why Dubas wouldn't attempt to sign any of the big 3 earlier than later.

 

[Nik]

I keep hearing the narrative of "The Leafs should've signed Matthews in the summer." Why would Matthews negotiate over the summer? Couldn't he (and realistically any of the Leafs big 3) just say hey, we're betting on ourselves so we're going to wait until at least during the last year of our deal to re-negotiate. I can't imagine why Dubas wouldn't attempt to sign any of the big 3 earlier than later.

Well, or take it a step further. The implication here is that if Dubas tried negotiating during the summer he'd have a better case for a lower deal because of the production gains those guys would make in year three of their ELC.

Now imagine that an agent, and these guys get paid a lot of money to represent hockey players, couldn't figure that out themselves and negotiate on that same basis.

Again, these are not deep criticisms based on a solid understanding of what went on.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Also I mean Dubas DID negotiate with both Matthews and Marner's agents in the summer about new contracts. They just couldn't come to an agreement then.

 

[Bender]

Also I mean Dubas DID negotiate with both Matthews and Marner's agents in the summer about new contracts. They just couldn't come to an agreement then.

Right, but the narrative is Dubas gave up more by signing them to deals later than earlier. It seems to me like the idea is: Matthews wanted X in the summer, Dubas tried to get the number down by waiting. Matthews goes on a tear and got signed for > X. This logic makes no sense from my standpoint. Maybe I'm missing something here but the player doesn't have to sign a contract that they disagree with, and I don't think Dubas would balk at $10.5 x 5 or whatever during the summer. I would have to think Dubas would've understood that highly skilled players would only get better from age 20 to 21, so he wouldn't bet against them having great seasons.

I dunno, I understand people don't like the payments for Nylander and the term for Matthews but I think the idea that Dubas lost the negotiations by making mis-steps or mistakes is a bit bizarre when none of the comments are prefaced with "this is highly speculative because we have no idea what the actual facts are."

 

[princedpw]

I was cranky for a few days about this. Im over it.  It looks like it means getting creative and ditching Zaitsev?s contract somehow.  But if they do that (and Brown), keeping Kapanen and Johnsson (and Marner) appears possible. That seems to be what matters to me.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I was cranky for a few days about this. Im over it.  It looks like it means getting creative and ditching Zaitsev?s contract somehow.  But if they do that (and Brown), keeping Kapanen and Johnsson (and Marner) appears possible. That seems to be what matters to me.

Moving Brown alone would make it possible to get all 3 of those guys signed assuming Kapanen and Johnsson take cheap bridge deals, which they're pretty much going to be forced into doing unless they want to be traded away. The team would still be right up against the cap and only have room for 1 guy in the press box though, so it'd be tricky.

 

[Nik]

Also I mean Dubas DID negotiate with both Matthews and Marner's agents in the summer about new contracts. They just couldn't come to an agreement then.

It's also worth mentioning that deals like the Draisaitl deal and the Eichel deal, which have both been mentioned as bad deals, were both signed in the summer following their draft+2 years.

Ditto with something like the McDavid deal. The McDavid deal isn't bad, exactly, as he's one of if not the best player in the league and so it's fitting that he carries the biggest cap hit but the deal he negotiated was 26% higher than anyone elses in the league before he decided to lower his own salary. Even then it was still about 20% higher than anyone else. Does he score 20% more points than anyone else? No.

I think there's a much better argument to be made that negotiating in the summer after the draft+2 year is as much about teams willing to give players whatever they want as anything else and so there's no need for a protracted negotiation. Dubas, to his credit, has been willing to let these negotiations play out to try and gain some advantage but at some point he needed to be realistic about the options in front of him. He wasn't going to trade Matthews and he certainly wasn't going to risk Matthews signing the sort of 5/14aav offer sheet that would really hurt the team so signing him for whatever he was looking for was probably the right call.

 

[princedpw]

I was cranky for a few days about this. Im over it.  It looks like it means getting creative and ditching Zaitsev?s contract somehow.  But if they do that (and Brown), keeping Kapanen and Johnsson (and Marner) appears possible. That seems to be what matters to me.

Moving Brown alone would make it possible to get all 3 of those guys signed assuming Kapanen and Johnsson take cheap bridge deals, which they're pretty much going to be forced into doing unless they want to be traded away. The team would still be right up against the cap and only have room for 1 guy in the press box though, so it'd be tricky.

That would be great ... im no longer so sure about what these guys are going to get. With optimistic assumptions, yes... looking forward to seeing what happens ...

 

[princedpw]

I was cranky for a few days about this. Im over it.  It looks like it means getting creative and ditching Zaitsev?s contract somehow.  But if they do that (and Brown), keeping Kapanen and Johnsson (and Marner) appears possible. That seems to be what matters to me.

Moving Brown alone would make it possible to get all 3 of those guys signed assuming Kapanen and Johnsson take cheap bridge deals, which they're pretty much going to be forced into doing unless they want to be traded away. The team would still be right up against the cap and only have room for 1 guy in the press box though, so it'd be tricky.

That would be great ... im no longer so sure about what these guys are going to get. With optimistic assumptions, yes... looking forward to seeing what happens ...

Looking here:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/02/06/auston-matthews-contract-extension-thoughts-on-the-deal-and-the-path-forward/

the leafs have 12.2 million to spend (leaving $500K spare space). Replace Brown with someone making $700K and you have 13.6.  If Marner gets $10, can you sign kapanen and johnsson for 3.6?  Unless they get 1-year deals, I cant see it ...

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Looking here:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/02/06/auston-matthews-contract-extension-thoughts-on-the-deal-and-the-path-forward/

the leafs have 12.2 million to spend (leaving $500K spare space). Replace Brown with someone making $700K and you have 13.6.  If Marner gets $10, can you sign kapanen and johnsson for 3.6?  Unless they get 1-year deals, I cant see it ...

This is basically the setup I used:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Gauthier-Bracco

Rielly-Muzzin
Dermott-Zaitsev
Rosen-Liljegren
Holl

Andersen
Sparks

Trade Brown. If you give Marner $10mil and you sign Sparks to a league minimum salary of $700k that leaves about $4.5mil in cap space for Johnsson and Kapanen. Or $2mil each on 1-year deals so there's the $500k left over. You sit them down and explain the plain realities of the situation and say that's all the space available to them this season. Unless they demand a trade or sign an offer sheet they really don't have much of a choice but to sign.

It's not perfect, because like I said it puts the Leafs in a tough position of only running a 21 man roster for a good part of the season. But it's doable.

 

[Bender]

Looking here:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/02/06/auston-matthews-contract-extension-thoughts-on-the-deal-and-the-path-forward/

the leafs have 12.2 million to spend (leaving $500K spare space). Replace Brown with someone making $700K and you have 13.6.  If Marner gets $10, can you sign kapanen and johnsson for 3.6?  Unless they get 1-year deals, I cant see it ...

This is basically the setup I used:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Gauthier-Bracco

Rielly-Muzzin
Dermott-Zaitsev
Rosen-Liljegren
Holl

Andersen
Sparks

Trade Brown. If you give Marner $10mil and you sign Sparks to a league minimum salary of $700k that leaves about $4.5mil in cap space for Johnsson and Kapanen. Or $2mil each on 1-year deals so there's the $500k left over. You sit them down and explain the plain realities of the situation and say that's all the space available to them this season. Unless they demand a trade or sign an offer sheet they really don't have much of a choice but to sign.

It's not perfect, because like I said it puts the Leafs in a tough position of only running a 21 man roster for a good part of the season. But it's doable.

One year of pain. The next year Marleau comes off the books and we can be creative to get rid of Zaitsev, then boom along with the cap going up you'll easily have $12m in available room.

 

[herman]

This is basically the setup I used:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Gauthier-Bracco

Rielly-Muzzin
Dermott-Zaitsev
Rosen-Liljegren
Holl

Andersen
Sparks

Trade Brown. If you give Marner $10mil and you sign Sparks to a league minimum salary of $700k that leaves about $4.5mil in cap space for Johnsson and Kapanen. Or $2mil each on 1-year deals so there's the $500k left over. You sit them down and explain the plain realities of the situation and say that's all the space available to them this season. Unless they demand a trade or sign an offer sheet they really don't have much of a choice but to sign.

It's not perfect, because like I said it puts the Leafs in a tough position of only running a 21 man roster for a good part of the season. But it's doable.

One year of pain. The next year Marleau comes off the books and we can be creative to get rid of Zaitsev, then boom along with the cap going up you'll easily have $12m in available room.

Horton comes off with Marleau's too, so add 5.3M of freed space.

Carlton's layout is pretty much my path forward as well. Maybe Engvall (better defensively and skating) or Marchment (cheaper) instead of Bracco (who is a prime trade candidate from an area of overwhelming strength) with Gauthier. Marchment and Moore play with each other, and Gauthier played a lot with Engvall.

 

[louisstamos]

I was cranky for a few days about this. Im over it.  It looks like it means getting creative and ditching Zaitsev?s contract somehow.  But if they do that (and Brown), keeping Kapanen and Johnsson (and Marner) appears possible. That seems to be what matters to me.

Moving Brown alone would make it possible to get all 3 of those guys signed assuming Kapanen and Johnsson take cheap bridge deals, which they're pretty much going to be forced into doing unless they want to be traded away. The team would still be right up against the cap and only have room for 1 guy in the press box though, so it'd be tricky.

That would be great ... im no longer so sure about what these guys are going to get. With optimistic assumptions, yes... looking forward to seeing what happens ...

Looking here:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/02/06/auston-matthews-contract-extension-thoughts-on-the-deal-and-the-path-forward/

the leafs have 12.2 million to spend (leaving $500K spare space). Replace Brown with someone making $700K and you have 13.6.  If Marner gets $10, can you sign kapanen and johnsson for 3.6?  Unless they get 1-year deals, I cant see it ...

So, based on Capfriendly, assuming the cap will be $83 million, they have about $11million in capspace.  But remember - the Horton contract is still on the books for one more year, so you can exceed the cap by up to his cap hit ($5.3mil).  Bonuses of rookie players would be moved to the 2020-21 season, but that's fine since it's just getting through next year that's the issue.  So, technically they have about $16 mil next year for Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, and whoever is going to replace Gardiner/Hainsey (if it's entry level/low cap guys like Sandin/Liljegren/Rosen, that goes a long way).  You save a bit more if you replace Brown with someone like Moore/Bracco/Engvall too.

So yeah - it's tight, but it's not impossible.  Like Bender says - next year is the roughest one to get through - just gotta get through that!