Jays acquire Troy Tulowitzki

[Captain Canuck]

No details yet on this one. Weird trade as we need arms, not bats. Maybe the Jays tired of Reyes horrible defense at SS?

EDIT: Yep Jays sick of Reyes...he gone along with "minor leaguers" to Colorado!

EDIT 2: Tulowitzki will receive a $2M assignment bonus for being traded and his contract converts to include full no-trade clause from here on out. as per Ken Rosenthal

EDIT 3: Jays also getting 42 year old reliever LaTroy Hawkins as part of the deal.

 

[dappleganger]

I love Tulo. I liked Jose but it's good getting rid of his contract. AA has earned an extension regardless of how this season ends up, imo.

Edit: Jays gave up Hoffman to get him. I saw him pitch in Dunedin. I would have rather have given up Norris instead but Tulo is awesome and he's signed until 2020. I think it's fair to say AA is going for it. Won't be his last move.

 

[TML fan]

Love the trade. Opens up more trade possibilities involving roster players. Wouldn't mind seeing a few more minor leaguers moved for some major league help. I'd like to see the Jays go for broke now and at least try to win. I can deal with 20 more years of mediocrity knowing that they at least tried with this window of opportunity.

 

[Derk]

Typical Anthopoulos ambush trade.

I like the deal. Hopefully Hawkins will improve the bullpen a bit, or at the very least allow the Jays to send someone less effective out the door.

If Hoffman is gone, what's left to trade for a starter? Phillies in town tonight, though, so let the Hamels / Papelbon speculation continue.

 

[L K]

I don't really get it.  As much as I was down on Reyes, Tulo is a career .819 OPS away from Coors field.  That's really good for a SS.  But the Jays problem really isn't their offense.  It's their garbage pitching.  So instead of improving their pitching AA goes and gives up Miguel Castro, one of our 20 year old prospects he felt the need to rush to the majors this year with and Jeff Hoffman our 1st round pick from last year.

The Jays pitching isn't good enough to win.  So why double down on the offense when the offense can't drag the team past .500?  Something more really needs to happen now which means AA is being allowed to bankrupt the prospect pool.

This definitely came out of nowhere.  It also somewhat corrects the fact that AA drafted Ricky Romero instead of Tulo years ago.

 

[hockeyfan1]

This is something:

FanGraphs Baseball  @fangraphs
Troy Tulowitzki:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS 

 

[hockeyfan1]

Shi Davidi  @ShiDavidi
Tulo salary: 15-19: $20m; 20: $14m; 21: $15m opt/$4m b/o.
Reyes salary: 15-17: $22m; 18 $22m opt/$4m b/o

 

[Joe S.]

Maybe it's initial reaction and no analysis but this seems like quite a high price to pay for a 30 year old shortstop.  I get that it's a defensive upgrade but the number of games played over the last few years looks concerning.

Anyway.... What's done is done I guess.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't really get it.  As much as I was down on Reyes, Tulo is a career .819 OPS away from Coors field.  That's really good for a SS.  But the Jays problem really isn't their offense.  It's their garbage pitching.  So instead of improving their pitching AA goes and gives up Miguel Castro, one of our 20 year old prospects he felt the need to rush to the majors this year with and Jeff Hoffman our 1st round pick from last year.

The Jays pitching isn't good enough to win.  So why double down on the offense when the offense can't drag the team past .500?  Something more really needs to happen now which means AA is being allowed to bankrupt the prospect pool.

This definitely came out of nowhere.  It also somewhat corrects the fact that AA drafted Ricky Romero instead of Tulo years ago.

That's kind of what I was thinking. From a value perspective, this is a good deal. You aren't going to add a player like Tulo without giving up a prospect like Hoffman, but from a needs perspective? Doesn't make sense. Yeah, Tulo is an upgrade on Reyes, but that's an upgrade that's well down the list of areas where the Jays needed to improve. You don't move one of your best prospects for that. If Hoffman was going to be moved, it should have been in a deal for a front of the rotation starter. If that kind of deal isn't out there? Don't move Hoffman.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I don't really get it.  As much as I was down on Reyes, Tulo is a career .819 OPS away from Coors field.  That's really good for a SS.  But the Jays problem really isn't their offense.  It's their garbage pitching.  So instead of improving their pitching AA goes and gives up Miguel Castro, one of our 20 year old prospects he felt the need to rush to the majors this year with and Jeff Hoffman our 1st round pick from last year.

The Jays pitching isn't good enough to win.  So why double down on the offense when the offense can't drag the team past .500?  Something more really needs to happen now which means AA is being allowed to bankrupt the prospect pool.

This definitely came out of nowhere.  It also somewhat corrects the fact that AA drafted Ricky Romero instead of Tulo years ago.

That's kind of what I was thinking. From a value perspective, this is a good deal. You aren't going to add a player like Tulo without giving up a prospect like Hoffman, but from a needs perspective? Doesn't make sense. Yeah, Tulo is an upgrade on Reyes, but that's an upgrade that's well down the list of areas where the Jays needed to improve. You don't move one of your best prospects for that. If Hoffman was going to be moved, it should have been in a deal for a front of the rotation starter. If that kind of deal isn't out there? Don't move Hoffman.

Still...he was a 5.0+ bWar player the last 2 seasons (last season in only 91 games - basically what Donaldson has done so far).  And if there is concern about him leaving Coors Field, Rogers Centre isn't exactly known as Oakland for hitters.  Plus his defense is an upgrade.

So when you see comments about the Blue Jays not needing Troy Tulowitzki because scoring runs wasn?t the team?s problem, ignore them. There are no diminishing returns to scoring more runs; there is no point on offense to where the marginal value of a run scored is worth less than preventing a run from being allowed on defense. All that matters is the differential between runs scored and allowed, and you don?t get any extra credit for being above average at both as opposed to dominating in one and surviving at the other.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/troy-tulowitzki-the-blue-jays-and-upgrading-strengths/

And as that article points out, most of the good pitchers available are free agents.  If you're selling off pieces of the farm for pitchers who might walk at season's end?  This seems like better value IMO:

Teams upgrade their weaknesses out of convenience, not necessity. It?s usually just easier to replace your worst player with a mediocre one than swap out your solid player for a great one. But the Blue Jays were in a bit of a unique position, with a window to win that extends through 2016 but maybe not beyond that ? Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are both free agents after next year, and while Russell Martin was a good addition, he?s not going to be an elite catcher forever ? so Alex Anthopolous was wary to use his farm system to make a move that only helped this year?s roster without also upgrading next year?s Blue Jays team as well.

And while there are a lot of pitchers available right now, most of them are headed for free agency this winter, with Cole Hamels and Aroldis Chapman being the notable excpetions; the Blue Jays are on Hamels no-trade list and the price for Chapman is reportedly quite high, especially for a guy who throws just 15-20 pitches per appearance. So if Anthoplous found every team he called asking about his best young prospects ? and that was reportedly the case when they tried to engage on Johnny Cueto ? then upgrading at shortstop with a player who won?t leave this winter might very well be preferable.

...

Which is why the Jays also had to part with some of their young talent in order to get this deal done. Because the deal isn?t known in its entirety as I write this, I?m going to hold off on declaring whether the return justifies the price, but we do know that Miguel Castro and Jeff Hoffman are part of the return going back to Colorado, with one other additional piece apparently in the deal as well.

Kiley McDaniel rated Hoffman as a 55 FV, placing him #67 on his pre-season Top 200, and confirmed that he?d keep the same grade on him after seeing him a few weeks ago. As a guy working his way back from Tommy John surgery, he?s certainly a high-risk prospect, but one with significant value given his upside. Castro, rated a 45+ FV on the same list, is also a pretty high-risk gamble, given that he?s basically all arm strength at this point, showing no real ability to get either big leaguers or Triple-A hitters out this year. The Blue Jays rushed him up the ladder, and perhaps the Rockies can get him back on track with a more cautious development plan, but he?s going to need more than just a poorly commanded fastball to turn into a good pitcher.

In terms of prospect value, these two look fairly similar to the two primary pieces the Reds got in exchange for Cueto. If the third prospect in the deal is the least valuable of the trio, then it may very well be that the Blue Jays paid less to get Tulowitzki than the Royals paid to get their rent-an-ace. Perhaps we?ll find out that the third prospect is actually another valuable piece, but as it stands right now, it seems like this may very well have been a better use of the team?s prospect currency than swapping it for a few months of a starting pitcher.

 

[Kin]

I mean, I guess this deal makes the most sense if you're talking about looking beyond this year. If you trade Encarnacion or Bautista for some pitching prospects you'll still have a really solid middle of the order to build around while hoping Stroman can come back strong and Hutchinson/Sanchez/Norris eventually show you something.

But for this year? This makes very little sense.

 

[Kin]

And if there is concern about him leaving Coors Field, Rogers Centre isn't exactly known as Oakland for hitters.

But the point about Coors field isn't about whether or not his numbers look superficially good, it's about the relative value of runs produced in that environment.

Tulowitzki's a good player and his offense is obviously very valuable regardless of the park he's in but that's largely true about Reyes too. The question is whether or not his defense is worth trading away a bunch of pitching prospects when the Jays have a pitching staff that, to put it politely, looks like a dumpster fire.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

And if there is concern about him leaving Coors Field, Rogers Centre isn't exactly known as Oakland for hitters.

But the point about Coors field isn't about whether or not his numbers look superficially good, it's about the relative value of runs produced in that environment.

Tulowitzki's a good player and his offense is obviously very valuable regardless of the park he's in but that's largely true about Reyes too. The question is whether or not his defense is worth trading away a bunch of pitching prospects when the Jays have a pitching staff that, to put it politely, looks like a dumpster fire.

I think they can still upgrade the relief pitching, which I think remains the biggest issue.  I don't think they're as bad as they've been, talent-wise, but a combination of things.  This comparison with the Royals (who are 60-38) was going around yesterday:

The link if it's too small or won't increase in size: http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CK9JC92UAAA4q8P.png:large

 

[Kin]

I think they can still upgrade the relief pitching, which I think remains the biggest issue.  I don't think they're as bad as they've been, talent-wise, but a combination of things.  This comparison with the Royals (who are 60-38) was going around yesterday:

I think the bigger issue is probably that they've got nobody that I feel especially confident in if they make it to a one game playoff. Right now who starts that game? Buehrle? Estrada? I think both guys are having fairly unsustainable years already and when you get into a short series situation, you kind of need someone who can miss bats.

Buehrle, for his career, has a 3.59 ERA in the first half of the year and a 4.06 ERA in the second half. Statistically his Julys are worse than his Junes, his Augusts worst than his Julys and his Septembers worse than his Augusts.

So the majority of that positive WAR among the starters is coming from the starting pitching staff is coming from a guy who historically falters down the stretch and a guy who's never been a starter for a full season in the big leagues.

 

[Kin]

Pretty interesting bit of info from Deadspin on the trade. Tulowitzki got pulled yesterday in the 9th inning of a close game because the trade was completed, leading to Tulowitzki looking like this on the bench after he'd been told:

Pretty rough way for the Rockies to treat him after ten years, not even letting him finish the game.

 

[cabber24]

I mean, I guess this deal makes the most sense if you're talking about looking beyond this year. If you trade Encarnacion or Bautista for some pitching prospects you'll still have a really solid middle of the order to build around while hoping Stroman can come back strong and Hutchinson/Sanchez/Norris eventually show you something.

But for this year? This makes very little sense.

I agree, good trade beyond this year, this year... not a massive net change. I like the trade because it's not a rental player. A .500 team regardless of run differential should not be in the rental market.

I am happy to be rid of Reyes contract, injuries, and fielding. Reyes is a great likeable person but I'm hoping the bench will get a little more serious with him gone. It always kind of irked me to see players having to much fun while losing. A massive culture change from last year... I think a new coach would help too.

Getting some of these pitchers back from injuries plus a few minor additions will hopefully surprise down the stretch. I don't believe they should be in the rental market.

 

[Captain Canuck]

I look at this trade not so much for this year, but the next few years since we control Tulowitzki through 2020. He has won a couple Gold Gloves so certainly a big upgrade defensively over Reyes, plus Tulo is a couple years younger. Left side of the infield is now among the best in baseball with Tulo and Donaldson!

Solid trade, but not one that addresses the pitching need...mind you EVERYONE wants pitching and it is tough to acquire. The most worrisome part is not that we traded a couple of top prospects, but that do we have enough left in the cupboard to get the needed pitching upgrade? Hoffman and Castro were our 2 best RHP prospects down on the farm. Maybe with the Tulo trade we part with Urena (SS prospect who is among Jays Top 10)? Outside of Norris and Pompey not much else to give up...maybe Pentecost? What do you trade off the major league roster outside of Navarro?

With the return of Sanchez, signing of Joba and trade for Hawkins has enough been done to solidify the pen? I'd probably want 1 more arm added there to feel comfortable.
Oh and for the love of God please bring back Delabar and get rid of Loup!
I still don't understand why some people worry more about the pen than the rotation when we have a guy like Felix Doubront taking the ball every 5th day and Dickey giving his usual double digits in the loss column?

It will be interesting to see if AA is indeed "all in" or is just lining things up for next season. I still maintain that age-wise the starting rotation is not in line with the hitting. What I mean is this team can't be led by Dickey and Buehrle, it needs to be led by guys like Stroman, Sanchez and Norris. I'm not sure we can get anything for Dickey, but we could deal Buehrle and sign a good starter in the off-season, therefore getting younger at the position and stretching the competitive window of this team.

I'd love to sneak into the playoffs this year and get that "longest playoff drought in pro sports" gorilla off our backs, but NOT if it means we give up the chance to be competitive for the next 5 years or so.
Ideally we get to do both!

 

[bustaheims]

I look at this trade not so much for this year, but the next few years since we control Tulowitzki through 2020. He has won a couple Gold Gloves so certainly a big upgrade defensively over Reyes, plus Tulo is a couple years younger.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25,d

Statistically speaking, Tulo is worse defensively this season. Gold Gloves generally aren't given out on actual defensive prowess, but often on reputation, number of times appearing in a highlight reel and other things that aren't necessarily reflections of strong defensive play.

 

[Kin]

I look at this trade not so much for this year, but the next few years since we control Tulowitzki through 2020. He has won a couple Gold Gloves so certainly a big upgrade defensively over Reyes, plus Tulo is a couple years younger.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25,d

Statistically speaking, Tulo is worse defensively this season. Gold Gloves generally aren't given out on actual defensive prowess, but often on reputation, number of times appearing in a highlight reel and other things that aren't necessarily reflections of strong defensive play.

There is no one defensive statistical standard though. Baseball Reference has Tulo's defense as almost a full win better than Reyes' this year by their dWAR.

 

[Darryl]

Thought I was waking up to a prank article but this trade actually happened.  Said on another Jays forum I would be a lot more worried about losing Hoffman and Castro if there weren't going to Colorado the pichers graveyard.