Islanders @ Leafs - Sept. 30th, 7:30pm - Prime

[CarltonTheBear]

Through 2 games and despite only starting a single shift in the defensive end the McKenna-Tavares-Nylander line is down 9-31 in shot attempts, 6-16 in actual shots on net, 0-2 in goals, and have a xGF% of just 16%.

Obviously, not ideal. I think JT's looked very slow. Maybe the shorter training camp wasn't great for him. I dunno how soon Hiller wants to wait before reconfiguring the top-6 but I wonder if the move might be to put Tavares on the wing for a bit and Roslovic at 2C just for the speed.

 

[dappleganger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2105488572187074756

He was very good tonight and I believe he will be very good if not overused. That said, he definitely is still here because no one would take him.

I would really do close to a 50/50 split with the goaltenders.

 

[YYZ]

Through 2 games and despite only starting a single shift in the defensive end the McKenna-Tavares-Nylander line is down 9-31 in shot attempts, 6-16 in actual shots on net, 0-2 in goals, and have a xGF% of just 16%.

Obviously, not ideal. I think JT's looked very slow. Maybe the shorter training camp wasn't great for him. I dunno how soon Hiller wants to wait before reconfiguring the top-6 but I wonder if the move might be to put Tavares on the wing for a bit and Roslovic at 2C just for the speed.

L2 and PP1 are struggling. Common denominator is JT. I know coaches want to defer to a vet of JT's stature, but man is he ever slow out there.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I would really do close to a 50/50 split with the goaltenders.

In a perfect world, maybe. But there's also the reality that Stolarz turns 33 in January and has averaged just 23 starts a season over the past 5 years. Something like 60/40 is probably best case scenario.

 

[herman]

L2 and PP1 are struggling. Common denominator is JT. I know coaches want to defer to a vet of JT's stature, but man is he ever slow out there.

Basically. All his puck touches are converting into turnovers or killing the play chain in some fashion, and then the line has to revert to DZ play. I also think strictly OZ starts are sub optimal for rush players because there's no runway to build up speed unless it's after a swirl in the DZ. Paul is better suited for OZ starts to fire up a blender on the cycle in there.

I'm loathe to break up L3 that's working so well, but it has all the useful, flexible parts, and the bottom group does have the legs for more minutes even if they don't have the offensive punch. A balanced approach is in order.

 

[cw]

L2 and PP1 are struggling. Common denominator is JT. I know coaches want to defer to a vet of JT's stature, but man is he ever slow out there.

I'm not completely sure about that. McKenna has been not very good to so-so. Nylander wasn't that hot against the Islanders. Tavares in preseason seemed to be moving pretty well. We have Marchenko added to PP1 with no practice. We lack a puck distributor on PP1. I can't blame all of that on JT.
One thing we must have on PPs is a net presence. That's JT's office. Knies is gone. McMann is gone. Matthews back shouldn't be subjected to that.
I don't think we can point the finger at one guy.

 

[cw]

In a perfect world, maybe. But there's also the reality that Stolarz turns 33 in January and has averaged just 23 starts a season over the past 5 years. Something like 60/40 is probably best case scenario.

Even then, it is hard to expect an injury prone 33 yr old and a 38 year old to play all 84 games. Akhtyamov (or Merzlikins or someone else later) probably has to play a bunch due to injuries/wear.

 

[cw]

Basically. All his puck touches are converting into turnovers or killing the play chain in some fashion, and then the line has to revert to DZ play. I also think strictly OZ starts are sub optimal for rush players because there's no runway to build up speed unless it's after a swirl in the DZ. Paul is better suited for OZ starts to fire up a blender on the cycle in there.

I'm loathe to break up L3 that's working so well, but it has all the useful, flexible parts, and the bottom group does have the legs for more minutes even if they don't have the offensive punch. A balanced approach is in order.

I'm not keen on breaking up L3 either - though Cowan could probably fix a hunk of what ails L2.

I think PP1 could use a puck distributor. That is probably something McKenna could do well. He has more time and space for that

 

[dappleganger]

I'm not keen on breaking up L3 either - though Cowan could probably fix a hunk of what ails L2.

I think PP1 could use a puck distributor. That is probably something McKenna could do well. He has more time and space for that

I agree with you but I don't know who you take off PP1 to insert McKenna.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Even then, it is hard to expect an injury prone 33 yr old and a 38 year old to play all 84 games. Akhtyamov (or Merzlikins or someone else later) probably has to play a bunch due to injuries/wear.

Akhtyamov loses his waiver exemption next season so it'll be in the Leafs best interest to try him in more games before then anyway.

 

[cw]

Akhtyamov loses his waiver exemption next season so it'll be in the Leafs best interest to try him in more games before then anyway.

After how he played last spring, Akhtyamov has earned a look. I don't know how this cap thing with Merzlikins is supposed to work out - he might be ready to return in December ..

 

[Bender]

I'm not completely sure about that. McKenna has been not very good to so-so. Nylander wasn't that hot against the Islanders. Tavares in preseason seemed to be moving pretty well. We have Marchenko added to PP1 with no practice. We lack a puck distributor on PP1. I can't blame all of that on JT.
One thing we must have on PPs is a net presence. That's JT's office. Knies is gone. McMann is gone. Matthews back shouldn't be subjected to that.
I don't think we can point the finger at one guy.

I think we can just point to L2 not being a well constructed line. I've had reservations about JT/Nylander for quite a while. I don't mind jumbling the lines a bit and putting Willy up with Matthew and bringing in Roslovic as the 2C for a while. A proper 2C really would solve a lot of problems.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

After how he played last spring, Akhtyamov has earned a look. I don't know how this cap thing with Merzlikins is supposed to work out - he might be ready to return in December ..

December feels incredibly optimistic/unlikely for him. But if he does return this season as things stand the Leafs will be able to remove both him and Joshua from LTIR and still ice any cap compliant 23-man roster from the guys in the organization. That means carrying 3 goalies or having Merzlikins in the AHL are both options. The 18% retention made sure of that.

The only cap issue would be if Domi returns as well, but that definitely feels pretty unlikely at this point.

 

[cw]

I agree with you but I don't know who you take off PP1 to insert McKenna.

Can't be Raddysh, Matthews or Tavares (net front). It would have to be one of Marchenko or Nylander
OR
Get one of those two to put more emphasis on playing the puck distributor role. I don't know Marchenko's skill set as well to know if he could do that effectively. Nylander seems capable.

I'd been wondering about McKenna on L1 with Matthews & Marchenko
Then screwing up L3 with
Cowan Tavares Nylander (bet that line would be fixed ...)
resulting in L3
Paul Sissons Roslovic
... (kicking tires only .. I'm not sure about that)

 

[cw]

December feels incredibly optimistic/unlikely for him. But if he does return this season as things stand the Leafs will be able to remove both him and Joshua from LTIR and still ice any cap compliant 23-man roster from the guys in the organization. That means carrying 3 goalies or having Merzlikins in the AHL are both options. The 18% retention made sure of that.

The only cap issue would be if Domi returns as well, but that definitely feels pretty unlikely at this point.

I did not understand why they would put them all on LTIR now.
Made me wonder if they were going to do another deal ...
What would they need all that cap space for?

 

[L K]

If I were WPG, I'd take Stolarz over Skinner.
Stolarz showed up ready to play last season. His team didn't.
He went off his game trying to compensate. It snowballed from there.

It was not as sloppy as the MTL game but there were plenty of sloppy sessions.
They now have a couple of days to sort things out to try to tighten up. Maybe get PP1 figured out some

I asked earlier about the pace of the game.
I'm not sure they're skating faster.
Maybe they're making decisions with the puck faster.
That was something Hiller had talked about.
The clip they were functioning at seemed faster than last season though when you look at individuals team speed on NHL Edge compared with last season, they seem fairly close.

The defence not collapsing to the net and conceding the blue line I think makes a big difference. Far less time with the Leafs allowing themselves to be hemmed in their own zone. It's a lot easier to transition back out when you still have somewhat fresh legs. I do think the team is being more aggressive with a combination of controlled zone exits and outlet passes. Far more effort to get the puck up the ice while maintaining possession instead of just getting past centre ice and immediately dumping the puck.

 

[cabber24]

Not sure when JT lost his job, playing 80 games a season and scoring 70+ points annually? The dialogue that he can't be a 2C confuses me.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I did not understand why they would put them all on LTIR now.
Made me wonder if they were going to do another deal ...
What would they need all that cap space for?

I was a little surprised about that yeah, especially Joshua because unlike the other two it didn't seem like he was guaranteed to be missing that much time. But I don't think there's a real upside or downside so probably wouldn't read into it in any way.