2025 Offseason Thread: Spring Cleaning

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think you have to dig into the types of regular season success those other contenders had. For the Leafs, I believe it was a playstyle mismatch. Dubas-Keefe Leafs leaned super hard into controlling the puck and manipulating space, which is like preparing for 2030 hockey. Power Play hockey of moving the puck around to probe for seams. And Matthews-Marner can really cook in that format when no opponents are making playoff-level commitments. Their play and numbers look beautiful and I am pretty confident in saying that management, coaching, and the fanbase got high on their own supply here.

But it's a completely different game in the playoffs. The Leafs had zero preparation for the whistles being put away after the first half of every game 2. Zero preparation for getting bodies into the slot with the puck (see Keefe vs Thornton in 2021 Amazon series). Their offensive style favouring a methodical set up meant every opponent just took their sweet time setting up the defensive structure and waiting for the predictable perimeter pass to get picked off for a rush chance against a relatively cold goalie. 5v5 offense turns to poop against a committed defense; Perimeter-based PP turns to poop against a packed slot.

I think Dubas and Keefe recognized it towards the end, given all the personnel types they kept trying to airdrop in, but the inertia of 'success' was too deeply ingrained. Why change what ain't broke (in the regular season)?

I mean I don’t think they’re the only successful team in the league to play a style similar to that, but I think they’ve probably had the least amount of success. But I still think the point stands that it would have been reasonable to expect that a successful regular season team would translate to at least SOME playoff success, or that these extremely talented players would at some point come through like almost every other similarly talented player in the league has done.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Can I ask why on Matthews? You may have said so elsewhere so apologies if it’s rehashing stuff.

In my view, of the “core 4”, Matthews has (had? hopefully not and last year turns out to be an outlier) probably the biggest trump card of all - he scores goals. And lots of them. And in lots of different ways. And he’s evolved the ways he has scored.

You can’t really teach that as such. I think you can replace set up men. You don’t even necessarily need a Marner level set up man alongside him for him to score. I’m not sure you can replace goalscorers so easily.

He’s also very good defensively.

Now, I’d very happily enter a discussion about him as a captain and whether he was the right option for that role. I’d probably cede that I’m not convinced he was the right guy for that role. That’s without knowing what goes on behind the scenes of course.

Sorry, way behind on this. I'm in Northern Saskatchewan and things have been "spotty".

I like Matthews. I really do. You're right. He scores goals. But, he has 4 goals in the last 18 playoff games. 9 in the last 29. He's scoring at a 25-30% rate. Other than his first season, he has never scored at less than a 50% GPG rate in the regular season. He's had disappearing acts in the playoffs. And I'm sorry, but I have a way bigger concern about your goal scorer disappearing when the going gets tough.

We know that he's been injured, but has it been for the last 3 playoff seasons? And if so, is that not a HUGE concern? Again, disappearing when the going gets tough.

Yes, Matthews is special guy. He brings something that is hard/next to impossible to replace. But doesn't that mean that him performing is MORE important than the easily replaceable playmaker?

We all want more out of Marner. But I'm not sure we should be expecting to make up for the lack of scoring from your guy with the trump card by counting on the guy that has never been a goal scorer.

 

[herman]

I mean I don’t think they’re the only successful team in the league to play a style similar to that, but I think they’ve probably had the least amount of success. But I still think the point stands that it would have been reasonable to expect that a successful regular season team would translate to at least SOME playoff success, or that these extremely talented players would at some point come through like almost every other similarly talented player in the league has done.

The other factor might be, in the recent stretch, the Leafs have encountered absolute wagons in the Florida teams and prime Boston, and did themselves little favour with divisional positioning. No such excuse against Columbus and Montreal though, and only a little injury excuse in the latest Boston flop.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The other factor might be, in the recent stretch, the Leafs have encountered absolute wagons in the Florida teams and prime Boston, and did themselves little favour with divisional positioning. No such excuse against Columbus and Montreal though, and only a little injury excuse in the latest Boston flop.

Great, now I’m remembering the OT vs Montreal where they had the first 12 shots or something and then Montreal comes down and scores on a random wrister from distance. Just Leafs things.

 

[herman]

Great, now I’m remembering the OT vs Montreal where they had the first 12 shots or something and then Montreal comes down and scores on a random wrister from distance. Just Leafs things.

This circles back to my original point, I think. Aggregate numbers at the end of the series will show the Leafs were 'right there' controlling play and putting up lots of shots. Why did they have all those shots? They had the puck a lot (around the perimeter) against a packed slot defense. Carey Price got a lot of warm up looks and found a groove. But the Leafs look amazing on the stats, except for scoring 'luck', getting burned on a blueline turnover in the OZ.

So the lesson they learned by their analytics here is... keep maintaining that differential and the skill will come through eventually, and in the playoffs they need to be more cautious of rush chances against. Matthews-Marner up their defensive game (let's make them PK for 5 min a night) and they play so safe throughout the subsequent series as the primary checking line that all the scoring is left up to L2 and hopefully the only cheapo depth they could afford.

And the result is, Matthews-Marner continue to have a power outage, but at least their defense is good? Hurray! 25M cap dollars of defense!
That's kind of the other factor that made the Leafs less successful than other finesse forward teams. Lots of top-heavy dollars like Edmonton, but those other guys take chances to focus on generating offense instead of buttoning things up and hoping for offense.

My thesis here is that all that is stupid for playoff hockey. You need players who are good at making and corralling mess, not so much fondling the puck looking for finesse.

The comments and actions by Treliving and Berube suggest they have a similar assessment; the latest results suggest they don't quite have the personnel to forecheck relentlessly enough to make the deliberate messes just yet.

 

[azzurri63]

So more of the same.

My opinion but I'll wait till the summers over and see what changes have been made but I think things may get worse. I can honestly see us falter and battling for a playoff spot. Regular seasons have been good but personally I think that's going to decline. Again I'll see what the roster looks like come September.

 

[Andy007]

I mean I don’t think they’re the only successful team in the league to play a style similar to that, but I think they’ve probably had the least amount of success. But I still think the point stands that it would have been reasonable to expect that a successful regular season team would translate to at least SOME playoff success, or that these extremely talented players would at some point come through like almost every other similarly talented player in the league has done.

As Herman also mentioned, we're talking about 1st and 2nd round matchups almost exclusively against Boston, Tampa and Florida. Every single one of those series, except one, went a full 7 games. I definitely think there needs to be a change and that Marner leaving might be a blessing in disguise (smite me, I know) but a lot of this playoff "lack of success" talk really needs to be reevaluated under the current playoff landscape (not to mention the fact that Toronto only seems to get series' suspensions and calls like the Tavares' pick penalty). Heck, Carolina, who I'm sure most fans everywhere would rank well above Toronto in terms of playoff prowess, has a FAR worse playoff winning percentage against those 3 teams. The Leafs are just totally boned, to put it scientifically.

(What I will say, though, is that the amount of losses in all of those clinching games is pretty mind-boggling. There should be, even just by fluke, a few extra wins here and there).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

This circles back to my original point, I think. Aggregate numbers at the end of the series will show the Leafs were 'right there' controlling play and putting up lots of shots. Why did they have all those shots? They had the puck a lot (around the perimeter) against a packed slot defense. Carey Price got a lot of warm up looks and found a groove. But the Leafs look amazing on the stats, except for scoring 'luck', getting burned on a blueline turnover in the OZ.

So the lesson they learned by their analytics here is... keep maintaining that differential and the skill will come through eventually, and in the playoffs they need to be more cautious of rush chances against. Matthews-Marner up their defensive game (let's make them PK for 5 min a night) and they play so safe throughout the subsequent series as the primary checking line that all the scoring is left up to L2 and hopefully the only cheapo depth they could afford.

And the result is, Matthews-Marner continue to have a power outage, but at least their defense is good? Hurray! 25M cap dollars of defense!
That's kind of the other factor that made the Leafs less successful than other finesse forward teams. Lots of top-heavy dollars like Edmonton, but those other guys take chances to focus on generating offense instead of buttoning things up and hoping for offense.

My thesis here is that all that is stupid for playoff hockey. You need players who are good at making and corralling mess, not so much fondling the puck looking for finesse.

The comments and actions by Treliving and Berube suggest they have a similar assessment; the latest results suggest they don't quite have the personnel to forecheck relentlessly enough to make the deliberate messes just yet.

Referring specifically to that Montreal series I don’t think the numbers bear out that they were only taking a lot of perimeter shots. The numbers would show you that they were getting the high danger attempts, they just weren’t going in. I think one of the biggest falsehoods of the previous Leafs teams was that they only or mostly took perimeter shots, I don’t think that’s backed up by anything other than people’s typically faulty memories when a series is lost.

 

[Joe S.]

Losing that series to mtl was inexcusable, but no one ever mentions that they went 8-2 to get to the finals against Winnipeg and Vegas before coming back to earth. But I’ll never back down from this, Tampa can shove their covid cups up their ass.

 

[herman]

Referring specifically to that Montreal series I don’t think the numbers bear out that they were only taking a lot of perimeter shots. The numbers would show you that they were getting the high danger attempts, they just weren’t going in. I think one of the biggest falsehoods of the previous Leafs teams was that they only or mostly took perimeter shots, I don’t think that’s backed up by anything other than people’s typically faulty memories when a series is lost.

That might be true! I also recall a lot of warm up shots with no screens, no rebounds, no change of lanes; regardless of shot location, those just serve to give goalies confidence. How many series did we lose because we got goalied?

I took a look at NST’s heat maps for that Montreal series and you are correct. They were very red in the slot most games. Save for G1 and G7. Great now I’m mad again lol

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

That might be true! I also recall a lot of warm up shots with no screens, no rebounds, no change of lanes; regardless of shot location, those just serve to give goalies confidence. How many series did we lose because we got goalied?

I took a look at NST’s heat maps for that Montreal series and you are correct. They were very red in the slot most games. Save for G1 and G7. Great now I’m mad again lol

My job here is done lol

It’s honestly amazing how they’ve lost some of these series, it defies logic in some cases. That Montreal one might be the prime example. But it often feels like if there’s luck involved they get the bad luck every time. I honestly don’t know what the answer is and I don’t think anybody does. Worse rosters seem to get more success. Worse players go on heaters. Worse goalies go on heaters. None of it ever happens for this team.

 

[herman]

My job here is done lol

It’s honestly amazing how they’ve lost some of these series, it defies logic in some cases. That Montreal one might be the prime example. But it often feels like if there’s luck involved they get the bad luck every time. I honestly don’t know what the answer is and I don’t think anybody does. Worse rosters seem to get more success. Worse players go on heaters. Worse goalies go on heaters. None of it ever happens for this team.

Time to get worse players!

 

[Bender]

He was within his rights to fight for a similar contract to AM34. It's funny how some either dismiss or forget that Lou screwed this up by dicking around with Marner's ELC. Lou with the we don't do those kinds of performance bonuses and then gave them all the AM34. Marner's AAV was 1.775M with an 850K performance bonus. AM34s AAV was 3.775M with a 2.85M performance bonus. So Lou basically cost him 6M and guess who came to collect next contract? Add in he was coming off a 94pt season. I don't blame him one bit for trying to maximize his value. I don't begrudge any player or anybody in everyday life trying to maximize their value. Nobody held a gun to the Leafs head here.

I doubt many have forgotten that. Lou did screw it up, but the way his agent handled the second negotiation the Leafs should've said suck it up buttercup or we're trading you.

 

[Bender]

What were they going to talk about? Treliving stated to the media he was considering trading Marner a month before July 1, 2024. And apparently, they got close to a deal with Vegas if Friedman is to be believed. Then we know about the Rantanen Canes deal. It has been questionable all along since May 2024 if the Leafs truly wanted to re-sign Marner. The whole gist of it seemed like they just wanted to avoid losing him for nothing. Re-signing him as a valued member of the team never seemed like a priority.

If by kicking tires and Vegas saying no because Marner was obviously not willing to negotiate in season, which is not the way you're presenting it, then sure. Close to a deal.

 

[Bender]

This circles back to my original point, I think. Aggregate numbers at the end of the series will show the Leafs were 'right there' controlling play and putting up lots of shots. Why did they have all those shots? They had the puck a lot (around the perimeter) against a packed slot defense. Carey Price got a lot of warm up looks and found a groove. But the Leafs look amazing on the stats, except for scoring 'luck', getting burned on a blueline turnover in the OZ.

So the lesson they learned by their analytics here is... keep maintaining that differential and the skill will come through eventually, and in the playoffs they need to be more cautious of rush chances against. Matthews-Marner up their defensive game (let's make them PK for 5 min a night) and they play so safe throughout the subsequent series as the primary checking line that all the scoring is left up to L2 and hopefully the only cheapo depth they could afford.

And the result is, Matthews-Marner continue to have a power outage, but at least their defense is good? Hurray! 25M cap dollars of defense!
That's kind of the other factor that made the Leafs less successful than other finesse forward teams. Lots of top-heavy dollars like Edmonton, but those other guys take chances to focus on generating offense instead of buttoning things up and hoping for offense.

My thesis here is that all that is stupid for playoff hockey. You need players who are good at making and corralling mess, not so much fondling the puck looking for finesse.

The comments and actions by Treliving and Berube suggest they have a similar assessment; the latest results suggest they don't quite have the personnel to forecheck relentlessly enough to make the deliberate messes just yet.

Skill never wins out if they play poorly under pressure or are afraid to make mistakes or get bodied. Conn Smythe still has a partial point when he said if you can't beat them in the alley, you can't beat them on the ice. I mean look at what we saw yesterday. Very little perimeter play, both sides are playing really physical, even Kasperi freaking Kapanen. Get rebounds, second and third chances, stand in front and get whacked and cross checked. You have to engage, you have to play the game with a different rule book. I hate to say it but Lay it on the Line really is a fitting song.

It's funny to think that I'm starting to view Knies as having more of those and even leadership qualities than most of the rest of the team.

 

[cw]

If by kicking tires and Vegas saying no because Marner was obviously not willing to negotiate in season, which is not the way you're presenting it, then sure. Close to a deal.

Treliving announced he was examining trading Marner a month before they could legally sign a deal with Marner and before they had much time to discuss a contract with his agent due to the firing and hiring of coaches in May 2024

The reports on Vegas were Karlsson, who the Leafs were interested in, had the Leafs designated as a team he would not accept a trade to and that there was no way Vegas was going to give up Shea Theodore because they valued his services more than the Leafs GM valued Marner.
So it was never close to a deal.
It allegedly never came down to Marner vetoing that particular trade though his camp had said repeatedly that they would not accept a trade.

But it is a slight on the player to go to the media and float it. That is precisely what Treliving did. Marner's camp shut that down with their position that they would never approve of a trade - to try to tamp down the media chatter - they were committed to playing out his contract in Toronto as they were expecting a child.

 

[bustaheims]

If by kicking tires and Vegas saying no because Marner was obviously not willing to negotiate in season, which is not the way you're presenting it, then sure. Close to a deal.

We also don't know who initiated the talks with Vegas. Did they come to the Leafs, knowing the team had to be at least considering a major move? With the high price the Leafs set on Marner (based on the most recent I could find, they were looking for a package that included Theodore and Karlsson), it doesn't feel like the Leafs were actively looking to move him, but exploring all possible avenues to improve the roster - like any good management group should. Nothing in there suggests they weren't happy to hold on to him or trying to re-sign him - and the reports of the team approaching his camp multiple times between the end of last season and now certainly support that they are/were hoping to keep him on board. They were doing their due diligence, which is, you know, their job.

 

[bustaheims]

Treliving announced he was examining trading Marner a month before they could legally sign a deal with Marner and before they had much time to discuss a contract with his agent due to the firing and hiring of coaches in May 2024

The reports on Vegas were Karlsson, who the Leafs were interested in, had the Leafs designated as a team he would not accept a trade to and that there was no way Vegas was going to give up Shea Theodore because they valued his services more than the Leafs GM valued Marner.
So it was never close to a deal.
It allegedly never came down to Marner vetoing that particular trade though his camp had said repeatedly that they would not accept a trade.

But it is a slight on the player to go to the media and float it. That is precisely what Treliving did. Marner's camp shut that down with their position that they would never approve of a trade - to try to tamp down the media chatter - they were committed to playing out his contract in Toronto as they were expecting a child.

A) Treliving never announced he was examining trading Marner specifically. Just that he was looking at all possibilities to improve the roster. Which every GM who doesn't win the Cup says. Because it's their job. Seriously, where do you get some of this stuff?

B) They were not expecting a child early in the offseason. Based on a rough timeline of when Miles was born (early May), they would have only conceived in late July/early August, and probably wouldn't have known until around the time training camp started.

 

[Chris]

Time to get worse players!

Worsefasstholes? Or just Worseholes?

My opinion but I'll wait till the summers over and see what changes have been made but I think things may get worse. I can honestly see us falter and battling for a playoff spot. Regular seasons have been good but personally I think that's going to decline. Again I'll see what the roster looks like come September.

Having to scrap and claw to get into the playoffs might be a good thing for this group. Even missing for a year might be good, though I would have preferred that to happen several years ago. Would hate to waste the last cheap Stolarz season, plus that old defense does scare me as they could start dropping like Brodies any year now.

 

[Chris]

Skill never wins out if they play poorly under pressure or are afraid to make mistakes or get bodied. Conn Smythe still has a partial point when he said if you can't beat them in the alley, you can't beat them on the ice. I mean look at what we saw yesterday. Very little perimeter play, both sides are playing really physical, even Kasperi freaking Kapanen. Get rebounds, second and third chances, stand in front and get whacked and cross checked. You have to engage, you have to play the game with a different rule book. I hate to say it but Lay it on the Line really is a fitting song.

It's funny to think that I'm starting to view Knies as having more of those and even leadership qualities than most of the rest of the team.

Knies does look like a future captain to me. Hopefully he can keep the injury bug under control and doesn't become complacent when he signs that big contract.

Kapanen used to have physical outbursts even when he was with the Leafs, he even fought a few times. Always liked him as a player, was surprised by how his career turned out but he has a good chance at a Cup so good for him.

The one thing that really surprised me in game 7 this year was how tentative Rielly looked. Several times he completely shied away from taking contact in the defensive zone, just waved at the puck and the Florida player. I expect that from Marner or Nylander but not from Rielly. Not going to win that way.