Author Topic: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension  (Read 1152 times)

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Offline herman

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #15 on: December 31, 2019, 01:19:54 PM »
He could’ve had 3+ on the open market
#BeBlessed

Offline Zee

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2019, 01:21:46 PM »
I don't like it. 

$1-$1.2 X 2 was about what I was comfortable with, because I think he's a 3rd pairing guy when they get someone to properly play those minutes.

I think $2m for a 3rd pairing d-man is too much.


He's averaging over 16 min/game and has been very good. He can handle 2nd pairing minutes why limit him to 3rd pair? I mean this is alot better than giving Zaitsev $4.5M for 7 years; I think Holl can play

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2019, 01:21:46 PM »

Offline Zee

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2019, 01:24:57 PM »
I like the deal given Holl's age. He's turning 28 in January so its not unreasonable to think he can still perform at this level for 3 more years, he's really taken a step in his career.

This sets up future pairings of

Rielly-Pietrangelo
Dermott-Holl
Sandin-Lijegren

for the next couple of seasons at least.  Budget middle and bottom pairing guys

FTFY


Given that Dermott hasn't been as good this year he may be your 3rd pair guy. Could be Sandin-Holl as 2nd pair with Dermott-Lilypad sheltered 3rd pair. You could do worse.

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #18 on: December 31, 2019, 01:29:07 PM »
I don't like it. 

$1-$1.2 X 2 was about what I was comfortable with, because I think he's a 3rd pairing guy when they get someone to properly play those minutes.

I think $2m for a 3rd pairing d-man is too much.

Here is a list of defencemen with a cap hit of $1.2M or less:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/defense&limits=caphit-0-1200000

Holl is significantly better than anyone on that list who isn't playing on their ELC, except maybe Gustaffson (who is a special case, as he signed his current contract before his break out year last season). I think you need to re-adjust how you value players.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2019, 01:30:45 PM by bustaheims »
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Offline Bender

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2019, 01:41:58 PM »
Thought it was a bit of an overpay but maybe not. He's been stable and reliable. Good for him.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2019, 01:52:07 PM »
Great deal. Very manageable and could turn into a steal for the Leafs. These are the sorts of deals that make the top six affordable.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2019, 02:10:07 PM »
List of defencemen who signed deals with an AAV between $1-3.5mil since this most recent offseason: https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/all/all/defense/1-15/1000000-3500000/06012019-12312019

Excluding younger players like Carlo and Sanheim, I think this is a pretty good list of comparables for Holl.

Like I said worst case scenario he drops back down to the 3rd pairing but still gives us reliable minutes there as a RHD. It's been awhile since that 3RHD spot was filled by someone capable of passing a puck. In that case I'd still take him over a lot of sub-$2mil players on that list like Ben Hutton, Connor Carrick, Scott Harrington, Christian Djoos and Mirco Mueller. Plus all the vets like Sekera, Polak, and Coburn.

If his performance/usage continues from what we've seen since Keefe took over, then I think he would be heading into the UFA market in a similar position to guys like Joel Edmundson, Neal Pionk, Ben Chariot and Patrick Nemeth. And those guys all got $3mil or higher on their deals.

So like I said, I think factoring in that the Leafs are sort of taking a risk here by signing him early and without much of a track record I think $2mil is probably a good bet size.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2019, 02:16:07 PM by CarltonTheBear »

Online Hobbes

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #22 on: December 31, 2019, 02:19:35 PM »
Yeah, based on his recent play and usage (effectively #3-4 RD) I was expecting him to be more in the $2.5-3 range and would only want to sign for 1 or 2 years (betting on himself to get more in the $3-4M range when he came up again at age 30). To me, $2 is a bit of a discount...maybe in exchange for the extra year of job security.

The other thing to bear in mind is 2 years from how, when he's still got 1.5 years left on this deal, he's likely to be an attractive trade chip as long as he remains decent. It's not like there's some massive surplus of steady RHD at this kind of price.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Online Bates

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2019, 02:20:35 PM »
List of defencemen who signed deals with an AAV between $1-3.5mil since this most recent offseason: https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/all/all/defense/1-15/1000000-3500000/06012019-12312019

Excluding younger players like Carlo and Sanheim, I think this is a pretty good list of comparables for Holl.

Like I said worst case scenario he drops back down to the 3rd pairing but still gives us reliable minutes there as a RHD. It's been awhile since that 3RHD spot was filled by someone capable of passing a puck. In that case I'd still take him over a lot of sub-$2mil players on that list like Ben Hutton, Connor Carrick, Scott Harrington, Christian Djoos and Mirco Mueller. Plus all the vets like Sekera, Polak, and Coburn.

If his performance/usage continues from what we've seen since Keefe took over, then I think he would be heading into the UFA market in a similar position to guys like Joel Edmundson, Neal Pionk, Ben Chariot and Patrick Nemeth. And those guys all got $3mil or higher on their deals.

So like I said, I think factoring in that the Leafs are sort of taking a risk here by signing him early and without much of a track record I think $2mil is probably a good bet size.

I don't hate this deal but I'm not sure you can compare Holl to the guys you mentioned?? He's 28 and is in his first real nhl season, the others had a history to evaluate.

Offline Downtown

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2019, 03:13:38 PM »
I like this deal, Holl had played well this season.
Can't be cheering for Connor Brown no more.

Offline disco

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #25 on: December 31, 2019, 03:35:40 PM »
Holl is from Minnesota. To get this done while he's in his hometown with family is a great personal touch. It's quickly becoming Dubie's M.O. that if he can do something nice for you, he'll go out of his way to do it. Players are human beings, they remember that kind of thing.

Offline wnc096

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #26 on: December 31, 2019, 03:36:00 PM »
I don't like it. 

$1-$1.2 X 2 was about what I was comfortable with, because I think he's a 3rd pairing guy when they get someone to properly play those minutes.

I think $2m for a 3rd pairing d-man is too much.

1.2M?  That's what they're paying Phil the Thrill.  He adds more value than Phil

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #27 on: December 31, 2019, 03:53:55 PM »
Holl is from Minnesota. To get this done while he's in his hometown with family is a great personal touch. It's quickly becoming Dubie's M.O. that if he can do something nice for you, he'll go out of his way to do it. Players are human beings, they remember that kind of thing.

Keefe too!

Online Highlander

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #28 on: December 31, 2019, 07:54:00 PM »
Good deal. There's a tiny bit of jeff fingerish risk to it, but at least he's performed well in the uniform.
Jeff "Give me a" Finger a break, the guy sucked from the get go. Terrible signing.  Holl has earned this, beside Marner needs him to keep the beat for the rhythm section.
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Offline gunnar36

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Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #29 on: January 01, 2020, 01:13:05 AM »
I don't like it. 

$1-$1.2 X 2 was about what I was comfortable with, because I think he's a 3rd pairing guy when they get someone to properly play those minutes.

I think $2m for a 3rd pairing d-man is too much.

I'm with you on that assessment. Holl would be at best a 3rd pair D on a team that is built for a playoff run.  I would have thought 1.5m max, but this seems to be par for course of Dubas' contract negotiations thus far.  Lou probably would have got him signed for 900k average.