Author Topic: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now  (Read 9842 times)

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Offline Frank E

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #345 on: September 30, 2019, 10:13:10 AM »
Liljegren?

Offline Arn

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #346 on: September 30, 2019, 10:15:08 AM »
It's interesting how big of a turnover of players that is. Basically an all new bottom 6 bar 1.5 players (Gauthier and Moore) and then an all new defence bar 2.5 players (Rielly, Muzzin and Marincin)
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Online herman

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #347 on: September 30, 2019, 10:16:16 AM »
Yeah we have a different definition of regression.

We do?  How do you misunderstand it then?

Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.
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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #348 on: September 30, 2019, 10:17:43 AM »
It's interesting how big of a turnover of players that is. Basically an all new bottom 6 bar 1.5 players (Gauthier and Moore) and then an all new defence bar 2.5 players (Rielly, Muzzin and Marincin)

This is what our roster looked like last opening night. Bold are gone, italicized are injured:

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Marleau-Matthews-Ennis
Leivo-Kadri-Brown
Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Ozhiganov

Andersen
Sparks

Online herman

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #349 on: September 30, 2019, 10:20:13 AM »
Liljegren's still on the roster too. Maybe that's for cap/LTIR-ish reasons though. I doubt they have him sit in the pressbox.

I think it's just the 9-gamer until Dermott gets back.

With final cuts, I think it's time to transition to an in-season thread.
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Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #350 on: September 30, 2019, 10:25:00 AM »
Yeah we have a different definition of regression.

We do?  How do you misunderstand it then?

lol. This genuinely made me laugh out loud.

Offline Arn

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #351 on: September 30, 2019, 10:27:25 AM »
It's interesting how big of a turnover of players that is. Basically an all new bottom 6 bar 1.5 players (Gauthier and Moore) and then an all new defence bar 2.5 players (Rielly, Muzzin and Marincin)

This is what our roster looked like last opening night. Bold are gone, italicized are injured:

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Marleau-Matthews-Ennis
Leivo-Kadri-Brown
Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Ozhiganov

Andersen
Sparks

The existence of Lindholm had completely vanished from my memory
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #352 on: September 30, 2019, 10:31:02 AM »
Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.

Not sure I'd call a 71.43 CF% during the pre-season sustainable. But I think what Frank basically just means is that Gauthier's looked good in pre-season because it's pre-season and the only players actually putting massive amounts of effort in are fringe players like Gauthier. It's why I can't even really compare his performance to Spezza's even when they're playing the same minutes/role. Spezza's a 17 year veteran, yeah maybe his spot isn't 100% locked down but he treats training camp/pre-season differently to someone like Gauthier.

If the Goat still looks good a month into the season against actual NHL competition in games that actually matter, I'll be pleasantly surprised. But I have my doubts that'll be the case. And also like we've sorta looked into already it probably won't even matter because the Leafs are stuck with him as one of their 12 forwards as long as they want Sandin on the team.

Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #353 on: September 30, 2019, 10:31:48 AM »
Yeah we have a different definition of regression.

We do?  How do you misunderstand it then?

Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.

I don't know if there's a right answer here, but I think a slight flaw in your view is that you're relying too much on luck as a an explanation for any deviation from their "normalized levels." There's so much more than just luck that goes into a variance. Additionally, their normalized level (what I would prefer to call "expected levels") aren't constant (but you allude to this given you state "new" levels.)

For what it's worth, I have a higher opinion of Marincin than Frank, but I somewhat agree with his assessment about Gauthier.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #354 on: September 30, 2019, 10:33:41 AM »

Yeah, I do think this is why Liljegren is still there then. His higher than league minimum salary means the Leafs can maximize slightly more of the LTIR benefit than having a guy making $700k around would. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him sent down sometime later this week.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2019, 10:36:00 AM by CarltonTheBear »

Offline Frank E

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #355 on: September 30, 2019, 10:41:15 AM »
Yeah we have a different definition of regression.

We do?  How do you misunderstand it then?

Correct me if I'm wrong: you say regression as in 'to regress', i.e. the opposite of 'to progress'.

I say regression as in, return to normalized levels, and that Gauthier and Marincin are already playing at their new normalized levels as nothing they've done has been luck-driven.

"New Normalized" is probably a term that doesn't have a good definition...it's almost contradictory.

Marincin played himself off this roster this past season, and Gauthier shouldn't have been there but for the Leafs' lack of centre depth.

It seems that the past few years, some people get excited that Gauthier found another step, or that Marincin is going to make this the season where he establishes himself as a shutdown guy.  They, among other hopefuls, have a couple of good games while trying to earn a job, and they both have the physical tools.  People get excited because they're hopeful for these underdogs.

But not me.  They've typically regressed back to their play that should net them a nice AHL career.  Nice guys, I'm sure, but it's time for a new experiment in those spots. 

Like Frog and Carlton said, Dubas painted himself into a corner here with the cap, and Gauthier and Marincin are cheap devils that Babcock knows.  But I still don't like it, and I'm disappointed.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #356 on: September 30, 2019, 11:05:21 AM »

No surprises here, your opening night line-up.

Offline Crake

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #357 on: September 30, 2019, 11:07:33 AM »

Yeah, I do think this is why Liljegren is still there then. His higher than league minimum salary means the Leafs can maximize slightly more of the LTIR benefit than having a guy making $700k around would. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him sent down sometime later this week.

That's something I don't understand about LTIR. If the Leafs are going to be into it all season long why does it matter if they're into it a little or a lot? Obviously there's a reason otherwise they wouldn't have traded for Clarkson or kept Liljegren up now but it's beyond my comprehension.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2019, 11:09:28 AM by Crake »

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #358 on: September 30, 2019, 11:09:00 AM »
The existence of Lindholm had completely vanished from my memory

Would you believe that Boston signed him and that he's likely to make their opening night line-up?

Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now
« Reply #359 on: September 30, 2019, 11:13:17 AM »

Yeah, I do think this is why Liljegren is still there then. His higher than league minimum salary means the Leafs can maximize slightly more of the LTIR benefit than having a guy making $700k around would. Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him sent down sometime later this week.


Even closer than what that guy tweeted.

Also, Liljegren on the roster still is for cap/LTIR calculation reasons AND if they wanted to claim someone on waivers he could be sent down tomorrow without having to clear waivers.