Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 37130 times)

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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #855 on: July 02, 2019, 01:20:01 PM »
Arbitration Rights for all RFA's might help. Sadly the Teams were winning when they weren't available but that has turned and I think teams might like them now.

Yeah that's probably a more realistic fix.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #855 on: July 02, 2019, 01:20:01 PM »

Offline Bates

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #856 on: July 02, 2019, 01:28:56 PM »
Arbitration Rights for all RFA's might help. Sadly the Teams were winning when they weren't available but that has turned and I think teams might like them now.

Yeah that's probably a more realistic fix.

It would end the posturing over comparables quicker.

Offline Hobbes

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #857 on: July 02, 2019, 01:29:35 PM »
Arbitration Rights for all RFA's might help. Sadly the Teams were winning when they weren't available but that has turned and I think teams might like them now.

Yeah that's probably a more realistic fix.

How about ELC of negotiable length up to 5 years after which all players become UFA. Then either add an exemption or have any player who is still with the team that drafted him and re-signs with them as a UFA only counts at 80% (or whatever) of their cap hit as a "career team player" exemption. That exemption evaporates if they're traded to a different team.

That eliminates arbitration, etc, and also probably better reflects the change in the market where players are hitting their primes at much younger ages.
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Online Heroic Shrimp

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #858 on: July 02, 2019, 01:46:24 PM »
An added thought to Nik's thoughts is that the agent is not only motivated to maximize the contract for his own commission benefit on this particular contract, but also to enhance his own reputation as an agent to attract future clients for future commissions.
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #859 on: July 02, 2019, 04:49:38 PM »
Do away with the concept of RFA's altogether.  First contract with team that drafted you.  After that, pony up.
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Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #860 on: July 02, 2019, 06:45:12 PM »
I wish that there was some sort of mechanism in the CBA that just sped up this process. I mean we see all this UFA deals coming together in less than a week but we're now probably going to see RFA negotiations drag into August and September pretty often. And considering the circumstances that you laid out that makes sense. There's no real rush on either side. But it just feels like such wasted time. Look at the Aho situation, the Canes were lowballing him hard to the point that they probably weren't even close to nearing Montreal's offer which they're now apparently "celebrating" (as they should). Presumably, Aho's people made that same offer to Carolina prior to going the offer sheet route and Waddell said no. Probably because he didn't feel like he had to "blink" yet.

I don't really know what the fix to all of this is. Move up the RFA signing deadline? Unless you move it to August, which seems extreme, I doubt that really changes too much. Maybe make it so after a certain date in the summer the compensation for offer sheets becomes a little relaxed? That could encourage more of these Aho-type deals where the player is pretty much just using it to get the contract he wants from his original team, but that would rely on other teams being willing to make an offer sheet that will 90% likely get matched.

Well, I always think it's important to remember that there's a difference in how this feels to weirdos like us and to your casual fan or even, god forbid, someone who spends the summer following other sports or doing stuff. Not having Marner signed creates a level of anxiety in us but realistically Dubas is still doing 99% of what he should be doing and Marner's enjoying his time off/working out so not a lot of time is actively being wasted.

I agree that it would be ideal if there was more of an incentive to get people to negotiate before any actual games are missed but I still think the only real fix is going to be having the NHL relax elements of the cap. Teams should, ideally, be motivated in these negotiations by trying to find a fair value for the player, not the manufactured reality that every dollar they give one player is one they can't give another. I think it just makes things too adversarial.

And sure, I hate the cap and so my solution to everything is getting rid of it, but the Leafs right now really are a study in why things at least need to be eased. The Leafs haven't gone crazy in free agency. Tavares is really it. What is hurting the Leafs right now cap-wise, and this sentence is just about as absurd as can be, is that they've been too good at drafting and developing players. Absorbing the 2nd contracts of 5 very good players in two years is a tough pill but just a ridiculous thing to punish a team for. Especially when this wasn't a Oilers-esque situation of having a bunch of lottery wins or several top fifteen picks in a row. The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.
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Offline lamajama

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #861 on: July 02, 2019, 08:38:59 PM »
I wish that there was some sort of mechanism in the CBA that just sped up this process. I mean we see all this UFA deals coming together in less than a week but we're now probably going to see RFA negotiations drag into August and September pretty often. And considering the circumstances that you laid out that makes sense. There's no real rush on either side. But it just feels like such wasted time. Look at the Aho situation, the Canes were lowballing him hard to the point that they probably weren't even close to nearing Montreal's offer which they're now apparently "celebrating" (as they should). Presumably, Aho's people made that same offer to Carolina prior to going the offer sheet route and Waddell said no. Probably because he didn't feel like he had to "blink" yet.

I don't really know what the fix to all of this is. Move up the RFA signing deadline? Unless you move it to August, which seems extreme, I doubt that really changes too much. Maybe make it so after a certain date in the summer the compensation for offer sheets becomes a little relaxed? That could encourage more of these Aho-type deals where the player is pretty much just using it to get the contract he wants from his original team, but that would rely on other teams being willing to make an offer sheet that will 90% likely get matched.

Well, I always think it's important to remember that there's a difference in how this feels to weirdos like us and to your casual fan or even, god forbid, someone who spends the summer following other sports or doing stuff. Not having Marner signed creates a level of anxiety in us but realistically Dubas is still doing 99% of what he should be doing and Marner's enjoying his time off/working out so not a lot of time is actively being wasted.

I agree that it would be ideal if there was more of an incentive to get people to negotiate before any actual games are missed but I still think the only real fix is going to be having the NHL relax elements of the cap. Teams should, ideally, be motivated in these negotiations by trying to find a fair value for the player, not the manufactured reality that every dollar they give one player is one they can't give another. I think it just makes things too adversarial.

And sure, I hate the cap and so my solution to everything is getting rid of it, but the Leafs right now really are a study in why things at least need to be eased. The Leafs haven't gone crazy in free agency. Tavares is really it. What is hurting the Leafs right now cap-wise, and this sentence is just about as absurd as can be, is that they've been too good at drafting and developing players. Absorbing the 2nd contracts of 5 very good players in two years is a tough pill but just a ridiculous thing to punish a team for. Especially when this wasn't a Oilers-esque situation of having a bunch of lottery wins or several top fifteen picks in a row. The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.

This....is 100% correct. The Leafs finally devote resources and good talented people to develop players and now we get screwed (fans that is)...
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Online Bullfrog

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #862 on: July 02, 2019, 08:43:09 PM »
...
So despite hearing all this "Marner feels disrespected" or "Marner wants to entertain offer sheets" there's every chance that Mitch is out on a fishing boat somewhere fielding occasional calls from his agent but generally speaking not paying too much attention to what's going on.

Because what's the rush? Marner and Dubas both basically know he's the last piece and, given that they signed Johnsson and Kapanen, I bet Dubas probably knows roughly what i'll take to sign Marner and has budgeted appropriately. Now it's just a game of chicken. Dubas might be at 8/9.5 aav and Ferris may be at 8/11.5 or something and now it's just a matter of where they might meet.

And when, too. Marner might be very comfortable waiting at least until deep summer to see if Dubas blinks. And why not? So long as he's confident a deal gets done, this could be taking up next to nothing in mental real estate. His agent is negotiating for him, Marner's enjoying the off-season. The fact that his unsigned status is bugging some people posting on the internet won't matter to him. If the worst thing that happens to him is signing for 8/9.5 aav then that's a pretty worry free life.
...

Reminds me of a Tie Domi interview from many years ago. He talked about getting a call from his agent to let him know he just got his first million dollar contract and Tie responds with "what, per year?!" [paraphrasing] It just illustrates how hands-off many of the players can be.

I agree, I really don't think Marner is sweating too much over whether he's going to get $9 or $10M. Doesn't mean he doesn't want his agent to fight for as much as he can get.

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #863 on: July 02, 2019, 09:18:31 PM »
I think they're all waiting for the first 1 to blink. Once the first couple of RFAs sign, the gates will open. Aho's deal isn't official yet.

Offline 50 Mission Cap

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #864 on: July 02, 2019, 09:43:56 PM »
The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.

In three sentences you reduced the "pro salary cap" argument to ashes. Well played indeed! Seriously, how does a professional league create a system that punishes you for being too good at prospecting/player development.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2019, 09:45:34 PM by 50 Mission Cap »

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #865 on: July 02, 2019, 09:51:27 PM »
I think they're all waiting for the first 1 to blink. Once the first couple of RFAs sign, the gates will open. Aho's deal isn't official yet.

The important parts are. The only thing that isn’t final is which of the two teams he’ll play for. The dollars, term, and structure have been filed with the league as part of the offer sheet process. For all intents and purposes, Aho’s contract is done.
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Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #866 on: July 02, 2019, 10:14:21 PM »
I think they're all waiting for the first 1 to blink. Once the first couple of RFAs sign, the gates will open. Aho's deal isn't official yet.

The important parts are. The only thing that isn’t final is which of the two teams he’ll play for. The dollars, term, and structure have been filed with the league as part of the offer sheet process. For all intents and purposes, Aho’s contract is done.
True enough and I totally forgot Meier but I guess he's considered a lesser light. Maybe it's going to take one of Point, Marner, Tkachuk or Rantanen to get it rolling?

Online Zee

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #867 on: July 02, 2019, 10:20:38 PM »
How fun would Toronto be if Marner's and Kawhi's deals to stay in Toronto happen on the same day? Yeah I'm a dreamer

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #868 on: July 02, 2019, 10:53:56 PM »
How fun would Toronto be if Marner's and Kawhi's deals to stay in Toronto happen on the same day? Yeah I'm a dreamer
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Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #869 on: July 02, 2019, 11:56:40 PM »
The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.

In three sentences you reduced the "pro salary cap" argument to ashes. Well played indeed! Seriously, how does a professional league create a system that punishes you for being too good at prospecting/player development.
While Nik's point makes intuitive sense, the counterargument would be that the 1, 4, and 8 (at least) picks hardly represent player "development" --  you, me, and Joe Blow from Kokomo could have made those choices and then sat back and watch 34, 16, and 29 unroll their natural talents. In seriousness, development from the Leafs, post-draft, played at best a minor role in the blossoming of these guys.

But farther down the draft, Nik is on to something. If you want to address it while not throwing out the cap, how about this idea: pro-rate the salary cap by a player's draft position?

1-10 picks: 100% of salary counts against the cap
11-20: 90%
21-30: 80%
and so on down to
91-100: 10%
101 and below: 0%

Heck, you could even make it so any player drafted 150th or below would increase your team's cap by 5% or something.

This kind of a system would actually reward teams for being successful in developing less-heralded players.  And if you begin thinking about the ramifications, they would be fascinating.  Teams holding the #10 pick trading down to #11 to get a potential 10% discount on the cap, etc.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2019, 11:58:13 PM by Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate »

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #869 on: July 02, 2019, 11:56:40 PM »