Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 35681 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #360 on: June 19, 2019, 10:39:48 AM »
Nik, from the collection of comments you’ve made about Marner and Nylander, it *seems* like you are *hoping* that they sign contracts that are much higher than other commentators predict.  For instance, Mirtle predicted Nylander in the 6.5-7 range (as I recall) and it seemed as though you were pushing Draisatl when others were comparing with Ehlers and Pasternak.  A number of analysts have suggested roughly 9-9.5 for roughly 6 years for Marner is reasonable.  You seem to be talking favorably about numbers in the 11 million range, which would put him in the top 5 players in the league at any position.

My question isn’t about who is going to wind up right or wrong (we’ll find out soon enough, but I don’t really care!) or what method is best for projecting player salaries or who is comparable to who.

Ok, for the most part when I've talked about these salaries I've mainly been focusing on how comparables work and what I think will happen. Why that separates me from some people is that a lot of your analysts are working under a couple of assumptions I think are false, namely:

1. That there's any good reason why a RFA player somehow "deserves" less money than a comparable UFA player.

2. That despite the vastly disparate revenues between clubs, there's no reason why a player for a high revenue club should be paid more than one for a lower revenue one.

(There's a third issue specific to Nylander which was that I think it made sense for him to think of himself as a C who'd simply been asked to play RW and so he should have been compared to other C's and that justified a Draisaitl-like negotiating position)

Both of those things, right now at least, will drive the salaries of the guys like Nylander, Matthews and Marner higher than fans here might hope. The fact that Nylander got significantly more than the comps people wanted to use, that Matthews got what people were hoping would be a 8 year term on a 5 year deal...I think that validates how I've tended to try to analyze these things.

  Rather, I can’t help but notice that you always seem to be on the high side of just about everyone else and it seems from your tone that you’d be happier if Marner got 11, 12 million than if he got 9 million.

Am I getting that wrong?

How much money Marner gets paid isn't really something I'm too worried about. I still, like other people, tend to be of the opinion that you keep your stars and try to build around them. I think there's a chance we see big revenue growth(with the new US TV deal) over the next few years and so a lot of the concerns about balance will seem exaggerated.

Obviously my rooting interest as a Leafs fan would like to see all of these guys sign for much less than fair market value but A) I don't think that's realistic and B) I'm not at all interested in letting that sour me on these guys asking for a fair market value. They want to get paid appropriately according to the revenues they're generating and I think it'd be ridiculous for me to think less of them for that because of a ridiculous system the owners implemented(and were willing to shut down the league for).
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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #360 on: June 19, 2019, 10:39:48 AM »

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #361 on: June 19, 2019, 10:42:23 AM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?


Believe Leafs would be the first.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #362 on: June 19, 2019, 10:55:30 AM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Rob

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #363 on: June 19, 2019, 11:04:46 AM »
The RFA salary ‘system’ artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

It’s good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander should’ve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #364 on: June 19, 2019, 11:11:45 AM »
The RFA salary ‘system’ artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

It’s good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander should’ve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.

So Nylander was dogging it because he was pissed the Leafs made him wait?  That says alot about a guy's character.  Nylander's bad season was due to: 1. missing 2 months and being "behind" everyone else 2. Not playing with Matthews all year.

Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #365 on: June 19, 2019, 11:14:42 AM »
3.  Bad shooting luck.


Lets face it, his first month or so back he was totally out of sync and while we can say that is totally expected in hindsight it definitely hurt.  After that initial period he played fine- tilted the ice in the Leafs favour but did suffer from some back shooting luck (both himself and his linemates).  Part of that time was with Kadri injured, so he wasn't with Matthews down the stretch either.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #366 on: June 19, 2019, 11:16:05 AM »
3.  Bad shooting luck.


Lets face it, his first month or so back he was totally out of sync and while we can say that is totally expected in hindsight it definitely hurt.  After that initial period he played fine- tilted the ice in the Leafs favour but did suffer from some back shooting luck (both himself and his linemates).  Part of that time was with Kadri injured, so he wasn't with Matthews down the stretch either.

Nylander got screwed by the coaching for sure.  No Matthews and no opportunity on the PP with guys like Matthews or Tavares.  I think we'll see a huge difference in Willy this year, I predict he'll be close to or at a point a game.

Online Bates

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #367 on: June 19, 2019, 11:21:54 AM »
The RFA salary ‘system’ artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

It’s good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander should’ve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.

To be fair he light it up at shinny hockey against minnows.

Offline Rob

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #368 on: June 19, 2019, 11:23:06 AM »
The RFA salary ‘system’ artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

It’s good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander should’ve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.

So Nylander was dogging it because he was pissed the Leafs made him wait?  That says alot about a guy's character.  Nylander's bad season was due to: 1. missing 2 months and being "behind" everyone else 2. Not playing with Matthews all year.

Sure, there are conditioning, timing and general game shape considerations.  Though everyone isn't on some infinite trajectory where they just keep getting better as the season goes on and Nylander couldn't catch up.   I have no doubt that the process he went through weighed on him and affected his performance.   

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #369 on: June 19, 2019, 01:17:29 PM »
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

Signing an offer sheet doesn't necessarily mean he wants to leave Toronto -- it might mean he wants to use what little leverage he has an RFA to force the team that holds his rights to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

Not that I think Dubas ought to look at it that way.

If he really doesn't want to leave, and that's his bottom line, he won't risk it by signing an offer sheet.  If OTOH that's not his ultimate bottom line, he will.

That reasoning is too abstract / philosophical for my tastes.

If his camp is convinced that he's worth more than the Leafs' best pre-OS offer and that the Leafs wouldn't dare losing a player as talented as Mitch Marner, they could certainly sign an offer sheet expecting, without much further thought, that the Leafs would simply match, getting them the salary they think Marner deserves.

And I don't think they'd be wrong. It's 50/50.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #370 on: June 19, 2019, 01:27:32 PM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

Offline Rob

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #371 on: June 19, 2019, 01:37:24 PM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

If they don't sign Marner, they would be taking a step back anyway.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #372 on: June 19, 2019, 01:46:18 PM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

If they don't sign Marner, they would be taking a step back anyway.

Sure, but whether they'd be able then take steps forward -- and quickly -- is different under a scenario where Marner's making $11m on the Leafs vs. one where he's making that on the Rangers & the Leafs have their four firsts plus a UFA that gives you 80% of Marner for less than his contract ask.

Online Frank E

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #373 on: June 19, 2019, 01:55:48 PM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

If they don't sign Marner, they would be taking a step back anyway.

I'm not so sure about that, I think that would depend on how they use that $10m in cap space.

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #374 on: June 19, 2019, 02:00:16 PM »
Just a thought.
For every million Marner signs over the Leafs want, another roster player goes. Assuming Brown is already gone for a pick or someone making a million less then him, you can add Hyman to that list as he'll have to be replaced with an ELC. There's your extra 2 mill to pay him 11.5 from 9.5.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #374 on: June 19, 2019, 02:00:16 PM »