Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 35709 times)

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Online Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #180 on: May 29, 2019, 03:38:22 PM »
And we'll take the 4 1sts thank you very much but we all know, no one is giving up 4 1sts for him. Point and Rantanen have a better chance of that happening and they're not getting it either. Picks are way too important.

They're not even just important in terms of keeping your prospect pool alive, but it eliminates potential trade chips for deadline day (or any time of the year) acquisitions. The acquiring team can't deal 1sts anymore to shore up a potential weakness heading into the playoffs, and they probably won't want to deal a lot of their future 2nd rounders either knowing all their 1sts are already gone. That really puts a Cup-chasing team at a disadvantage.

And you know what?  Bottom line is, Marner is not *that* good anyhow.
Not 4 1sts good.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #180 on: May 29, 2019, 03:38:22 PM »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #181 on: May 29, 2019, 04:09:09 PM »
I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.

Well, with Matthews the Leafs seem to have taken the bold negotiating stance of "Give him whatever he wants" and while we can argue about the extent to which Nylander's camp was roundly criticized for how they negotiated at the time, I'm still not sure I'd be too quick to judge Marner's camp for not wanting to follow the "Have a terrible season and make most of the fanbase hate you" model.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #182 on: May 29, 2019, 04:58:40 PM »
I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.

Well, with Matthews the Leafs seem to have taken the bold negotiating stance of "Give him whatever he wants" and while we can argue about the extent to which Nylander's camp was roundly criticized for how they negotiated at the time, I'm still not sure I'd be too quick to judge Marner's camp for not wanting to follow the "Have a terrible season and make most of the fanbase hate you" model.

Do you think the agent's objective in working the press--pushing a higher number--is to get a "fair value" resolution faster? I hadn't considered how the press leaks could affect the timing of when a deal gets done, and, at first blush, I can't quite see how saying "he wants a Matthews-esque deal" gets a Nylander-esque deal (i.e. a cap hit we all sort of expect) done in June.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #183 on: May 29, 2019, 05:47:05 PM »
Do you think the agent's objective in working the press--pushing a higher number--is to get a "fair value" resolution faster? I hadn't considered how the press leaks could affect the timing of when a deal gets done, and, at first blush, I can't quite see how saying "he wants a Matthews-esque deal" gets a Nylander-esque deal (i.e. a cap hit we all sort of expect) done in June.

No, I think the objective is getting Marner the kind of deal he wants within the time frame he wants. I have no idea to what extent Marner is really open to playing elsewhere or what sort of money he's willing to accept(regardless of how it fits into our definition of fair or expected) but either way I at least see the angle in trying to create public pressure to sign the very popular hometown guy.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Frank E

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #184 on: May 29, 2019, 06:25:13 PM »
As long as we're all speculating, I think Dubas really wants to avoid another Nylander thing...I'm going to say $8.75m X 6, and done before July 1.

Offline Bates

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #185 on: May 29, 2019, 07:11:07 PM »
As long as we're all speculating, I think Dubas really wants to avoid another Nylander thing...I'm going to say $8.75m X 6, and done before July 1.

Dubas would sign that today without even negotiating.

Online Bullfrog

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #186 on: May 29, 2019, 07:15:43 PM »
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.

Online princedpw

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #187 on: May 29, 2019, 08:33:25 PM »
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.

4 top-5 picks for marner would be quite the haul, wouldn’t it?

Online Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #188 on: May 29, 2019, 08:36:49 PM »
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.

4 top-5 picks for marner would be quite the haul, wouldn’t it?

Yup.

Online Bullfrog

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #189 on: May 29, 2019, 09:31:13 PM »
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.

4 top-5 picks for marner would be quite the haul, wouldn’t it?

What, no confidence the Sens will make the playoffs?

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #190 on: May 29, 2019, 11:49:57 PM »
As long as we're all speculating, I think Dubas really wants to avoid another Nylander thing...I'm going to say $8.75m X 6, and done before July 1.

Going by the Dubas school of negotiations I doubt it gets done for anything less than $9.5m/year.

Offline Zee

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #191 on: May 30, 2019, 08:25:15 AM »
Dreger was on Overdrive last night, he said he doesn't beat the Marner camp drum like people say he does.  ;D

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #192 on: May 30, 2019, 09:25:57 AM »
I wouldn't really be surprised if we ended up seeing a 3-year bridge deal at a number higher than we expect bridge deals to be. Something like $8mil. I'm not even sure I'd really be too upset at that. Gives us a tiny bit more flexibility in this coming season to help us keep Kappy/Johnsson. If Marner proves that he deserves a top-5 AAV in the league after that then I'd happily give it to him.

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #193 on: May 30, 2019, 01:12:25 PM »
What are Mitch Marner’s comparables?  (Early) Patrick Kane & (Most current) Mikko Rantanen.

Here’s a look:


Mikko Rantanen is a current comparable, and in the writer’s own words he has “outproduced” Marner, even though Marner has outscored him in that same span.

Depending on who signs (whom) first, no doubt the Marner camp will be looking towards what these wingers may be in the market for and want a similar deal.




https://theathletic.com/988241/2019/05/22/tulloch-a-breakdown-of-what-mitch-marner-should-earn-on-his-next-contract-based-on-comparables/

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #194 on: May 30, 2019, 01:17:39 PM »
Also this:  A finer look...


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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #194 on: May 30, 2019, 01:17:39 PM »