Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 37209 times)

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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1050 on: July 11, 2019, 08:52:35 PM »
True, but he was still a better scorer than anybody else.

Sure, but it's always been a topic I've wanted to dig deeper into. For 4-6 years he scored at a level unheard of in the sport, before or since. Then, while still in what should have been his athletic prime, he was scoring roughly as many goals as someone like Dino Ciccarelli.

It's tough to say it was just a reflection of the time either because this is roughly the time when Brett Hull and Mario Lemieux were having years where they were scoring goals at a rate that was pretty close to Gretzky in those 4-6 years where he was lighting the world on fire.

So did the game shift drastically or did it have something to do with the calibre of players coming into the league or did teams just sort of figure out what Gretzky was doing and were able to stop a lot of it? Anyways, it's just something that's always interested me.

What year did he get married?  ;)

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1050 on: July 11, 2019, 08:52:35 PM »

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1051 on: July 11, 2019, 09:15:16 PM »
Looking at his stats, he had a fair drop-off in shots from 85-86 to 86-87.  He still scored 62 goals in the latter year and had 183 points but it kind of looks like a significant decline in shots that appears to persist or decrease going forward.  (He only scored 52 goals in 85-86 but that looks likes shooting percentage blip.)  Maybe teams start universally selling out on him to prevent goals?  Which drop-off were you thinking of exactly?

Yeah, that's it more or less. Like you say his shots declined but his shooting percentage also experienced a bit of a dip(as I imagine it maybe did league-wide during those years).

I appreciate that some of the usual dullards reflexively take this as a criticism of Gretzky but the more I look at it the more I think it speaks to his understanding of the game. As he became a less effective goal scorer for whatever reason he shifted his game away from it and areas where he was still top of the league brilliant.
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Offline Hobbes

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1052 on: July 12, 2019, 06:14:27 AM »
Looking at his stats, he had a fair drop-off in shots from 85-86 to 86-87.  He still scored 62 goals in the latter year and had 183 points but it kind of looks like a significant decline in shots that appears to persist or decrease going forward.  (He only scored 52 goals in 85-86 but that looks likes shooting percentage blip.)  Maybe teams start universally selling out on him to prevent goals?  Which drop-off were you thinking of exactly?

Yeah, that's it more or less. Like you say his shots declined but his shooting percentage also experienced a bit of a dip(as I imagine it maybe did league-wide during those years).

I appreciate that some of the usual dullards reflexively take this as a criticism of Gretzky but the more I look at it the more I think it speaks to his understanding of the game. As he became a less effective goal scorer for whatever reason he shifted his game away from it and areas where he was still top of the league brilliant.

I am not sure how best to find out, but at a guess did he perhaps spend a lot more time with Tikkanen rather than Semenko on his other wing in that period? Perhaps that made it positionally a bit easier for goalies to guess where the puck was likely to come from, or a bit easier on the defencemen to shade to the Gretzky-Jurri side?
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline Zee

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1053 on: July 12, 2019, 08:38:16 AM »
I don't remember much from the 80s, but I do remember that Gretzky was so ridiculously good in the early to mid 80s that he was actually banned from being selected in playoff hockey pools because it was deemed too much of an unfair advantage  ;D

Online herman

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1054 on: July 12, 2019, 01:27:48 PM »
Alrighty let's fire out your contract guesses. You can do one short (<4) and one long (4+).

Bridge: 3 years 6.905 AAV
Term: 6 years 10.527 AAV

Offline Bates

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1055 on: July 12, 2019, 01:29:32 PM »
3 years at $8
6 years at $10.2

Offline Zee

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1056 on: July 12, 2019, 01:33:56 PM »
3 years $8M
6 years $10.516M

Online Rob

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1057 on: July 12, 2019, 01:37:20 PM »
3x$10M

Online herman

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1058 on: July 12, 2019, 01:46:11 PM »
Isn't there a convention for adding ~1M AAV per year of term?

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1059 on: July 12, 2019, 01:48:06 PM »

3 at 9.5
6 at 10.75
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Offline Zee

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1060 on: July 12, 2019, 02:02:13 PM »
Isn't there a convention for adding ~1M AAV per year of term?

We can throw convention out of the window with this negotiation.

Online Bill_Berg

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1061 on: July 12, 2019, 02:19:54 PM »
3 at 9.5
5 at 10.5

Offline Frank E

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1062 on: July 12, 2019, 02:33:15 PM »
$3X8
$10X5

Online Bullfrog

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1063 on: July 12, 2019, 02:36:33 PM »
Isn't there a convention for adding ~1M AAV per year of term?

Have never heard that before.

Online Bullfrog

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1064 on: July 12, 2019, 02:37:07 PM »
2 years @ $8M
7 years @ $10.4M

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1064 on: July 12, 2019, 02:37:07 PM »