Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 37213 times)

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Online CarltonTheBear

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Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: April 25, 2019, 09:24:02 AM »
Marner's final season point totals:

82 regular season games, 26 goals, 68 assists, 94 points
7 playoff games, 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points

In the regular season he finished in a tie for 69th (nice) in goals, 4th in assists, and 11th in points. Among players with a minimum of 65 GP he finished 15th in points per game. Among those 14 players ahead of him 6 of them were wingers, 7 if you count Draisaitl as a winger.

Does anyone still see him getting $12mil like our buddy Brad Marchand suggested? Or how about even getting as much as Matthews?

For what it's worth @EvolvingWild, a prominent voice in the analytics community, has their contract projections model up for this years free agent class. You can find the link to it here. Their initial prediction for Marner is an 8-year deal at $10.113mil. On a 5 or 6 year deal their model has him just a shade over $9mil.

My prediction, much like Dubas wanting to keep Nylander below $7mil on the cap I think they'll try to figure something out that keeps Marner below $10mil. That probably means an 8 year deal is of the table. A 5 year contract would make his contract expire the same year as Matthews and Nylander's, so I'm guessing 6 years, $9.5mil.

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Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: April 25, 2019, 09:24:02 AM »

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2019, 10:21:50 AM »
I have to agree that something shorter is more likely since that's what we've seen in the past. 6 at 9.5 per seems about right.

One thing I'll bet on is that it happens later rather than sooner. If the team manages to rid themselves of some high priced contracts, maybe 8 years is suddenly back on the table.

Offline L K

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2019, 10:32:51 AM »
8*10 is my guess.

Kane got 10.5 coming off 133 points in 130 games in the two years before his deal started.  (He also had 457 career points by that time in 576 games)

Marner has 163 points in the 164 games before his contract.

Kane got 10.5M.   Kane also scored 43 points in the two playoff runs prior to his contract (plus the 71 other playoff points on his resume)
« Last Edit: April 25, 2019, 10:44:12 AM by L K »

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2019, 10:54:16 AM »
Kane got 10.5 coming off 133 points in 130 games in the two years before his deal started.  (He also had 457 career points by that time in 576 games)

Marner has 163 points in the 164 games before his contract.

Some context for this though: Kane's P/GP in those seasons was 4th in the league. Marner's P/GP in those seasons was 25th. They're really not comparable.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2019, 10:55:52 AM by CarltonTheBear »

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2019, 11:33:44 AM »
 He won't be getting Matthews' money even tho we know that'll be Paul's ask. JT had a lot to do with Marner's increase in points this season. He doesn't get those points playing with anyone else unless it's Matthews. I can see 8 years @ 10 per getting it done.

Offline Zee

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2019, 11:48:05 AM »
8x10 would be great. I like locking up one of our big guys for 8 years. Let's make it happen

Offline Bender

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2019, 11:50:54 AM »
I think $10m is fair. He's not a big scoring centre and thus doesn't deserve the same contract as Matthews. I love Marner and think he's great and he's going to make a lot over his career but anything over $10M and everything starts to accrue. We need every bit of cap savings we can get.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2019, 01:19:10 PM »
I think $10m is fair. He's not a big scoring centre and thus doesn't deserve the same contract as Matthews. I love Marner and think he's great and he's going to make a lot over his career but anything over $10M and everything starts to accrue. We need every bit of cap savings we can get.
10 is very fair. Are you listening Paul Marner????

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2019, 02:43:36 PM »

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.

Offline Bender

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2019, 02:46:39 PM »

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.

Why does everyone think that players signing an offer sheet is going to happen? They've talked about it for years and it almost NEVER happens. I don't think Marner is willing to go to a team that has that kind of cap space for an extra $1-2mil per year if he can stay here and be surrounded by players that can help him excel. $ isn't the last word in everything. If I were offered $20k more per year to go somewhere else in my industry I'd have to think long and hard about whether the money is enough to get me to leave, because I like where I am.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Offline Hobbes

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2019, 04:16:38 PM »
I do think there's a huge urgency to get Marner signed but not because of the risk of offer sheets. Dubas needs cost certainty on Marner before he can even start to think about doing anything at all on our own UFAs or any others that might be coming up. He needs to know this number to be able to do any shopping at all on July 1st. There might be some players (UFAs) who would agree to take less money to come to Toronto and have a shot at a cup, but I doubt they're going to also want to wait until Oct 1st before signing. Until the ink is dry on Marner's contract, Dubas' hands are tied for everything else.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2019, 04:44:38 PM »
I do think there's a huge urgency to get Marner signed but not because of the risk of offer sheets. Dubas needs cost certainty on Marner before he can even start to think about doing anything at all on our own UFAs or any others that might be coming up. He needs to know this number to be able to do any shopping at all on July 1st. There might be some players (UFAs) who would agree to take less money to come to Toronto and have a shot at a cup, but I doubt they're going to also want to wait until Oct 1st before signing. Until the ink is dry on Marner's contract, Dubas' hands are tied for everything else.

The only July 1st shopping they'll be doing is for Canada Flag birthday cakes.

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2019, 05:03:59 PM »
The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.

Online freer

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2019, 02:09:51 AM »
The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.

I think 8.9 to 9.5 should be his top wage. Anything more then that is ridiculous IMO

Offline Leaffan61

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2019, 09:22:30 AM »
His market value is $9.5-10 million x 8. Add on the Dubas Premium and don't be surprised if he gets $11 million x 8.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2019, 09:22:30 AM »