Author Topic: Nylander signs 6-year contract  (Read 14748 times)

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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #375 on: January 25, 2019, 11:17:19 AM »
Marner's quality of competition is higher, but his quality of teammate is also much higher.

Nylander rolling over 3rd and 4th lines is only natural, and using him and Kadri like a more effective/responsible Bozak-JvR is what makes the Leafs depth so scary since Tavares + Matthews can usually saw off, or go a bit over their top-6 match ups.

If Nylander were in the top six, they might get a slight edge once he fully gets going alongside Matthews, but I don't think Kadri-Kapanen is going to light up bottom-6s as well. Either way, the team has options with its plug and play wingers, at least on the right. The left wing is in tough with Johnsson out.

Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #375 on: January 25, 2019, 11:17:19 AM »

Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #376 on: January 25, 2019, 11:28:13 AM »
Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

Where are these numbers coming from?

This is NaturalStatTrick's 5v5 individual rates for Leaf forwards sorted in Descending order of individual scoring chances for per 60 minutes (iSCF/60):

PlayerGPSH%iCF/60iFF/60iSCF/60iHDCF/60
Auston Matthews3515.0717.6613.3111.824.6
John Tavares4919.4916.513.0511.545.89
William Nylander213.4515.9511.9610.474.74
Mitchell Marner4914.1214.6410.199.512.57
Kasperi Kapanen4912.7915.0511.619.484.55
Nazem Kadri496.7416.6612.959.143.52
Zach Hyman394.7611.369.628.695.68
Andreas Johnsson4316.0711.969.827.433.53
Patrick Marleau4911.5910.468.767.063.31
Frederik Gauthier407.699.556.827.023.31
Tyler Ennis332011.9110.186.933.9
Connor Brown494.659.738.426.233.61
Par Lindholm492.2212.7810.285.512.76
Trevor Moore7509.496.785.421.36

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #377 on: January 25, 2019, 11:28:50 AM »
Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

What are these stats from? Since Nylander's signing he's 6th among forwards in shots/60 at 5-on-5, Gauthier is 12th. In individual shot attempts Nylander's 5th, Gauthier's 12th. In scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances Nylander's 4th, Gauthier's 10th.

edit: mr. fancy pants herman had to break this down more thoroughly than I did

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #378 on: January 25, 2019, 11:29:37 AM »
At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

Are you seriously suggesting that the issue right now is that despite what we saw from Nylander over his first two seasons he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity?
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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #379 on: January 25, 2019, 11:36:12 AM »
Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

Where are these numbers coming from?

This is NaturalStatTrick's 5v5 individual rates for Leaf forwards sorted in Descending order of individual scoring chances for per 60 minutes (iSCF/60):

PlayerGPSH%iCF/60iFF/60iSCF/60iHDCF/60
Auston Matthews3515.0717.6613.3111.824.6
John Tavares4919.4916.513.0511.545.89
William Nylander213.4515.9511.9610.474.74
Mitchell Marner4914.1214.6410.199.512.57
Kasperi Kapanen4912.7915.0511.619.484.55
Nazem Kadri496.7416.6612.959.143.52
Zach Hyman394.7611.369.628.695.68
Andreas Johnsson4316.0711.969.827.433.53
Patrick Marleau4911.5910.468.767.063.31
Frederik Gauthier407.699.556.827.023.31
Tyler Ennis332011.9110.186.933.9
Connor Brown494.659.738.426.233.61
Par Lindholm492.2212.7810.285.512.76
Trevor Moore7509.496.785.421.36

Sorry, I was using last 21 games, since Willy's been back.

Edit: Also I miscalculated. FG is at 0.12 not 0.16 iSC/minute.  ;D
« Last Edit: January 25, 2019, 11:43:20 AM by Dappleganger »

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #380 on: January 25, 2019, 11:41:40 AM »
At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

Are you seriously suggesting that the issue right now is that despite what we saw from Nylander over his first two seasons he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity?

No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #381 on: January 25, 2019, 11:45:39 AM »
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Not sure what else to tell you because I don't fully understand what you mean 'not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity' because he's clearly good enough to be getting the puck into those aforementioned positions to generate really good opportunities better than Leafs not named Tavares and Matthews, while trying to catch up to mid-season form from having 2 months off.

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #382 on: January 25, 2019, 11:49:25 AM »
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Ok, and that's where the numbers suggest a different story. Provided we all agree he's got a certain baseline of talent where he should be able to convert on chances and the numbers show he's generating chances(which should answer any charges of, say, a lack of effort) then what would explain the lack of scoring other than bad luck?

If the effort and talent is there then what can anyone, him or the coaching staff, do differently to get a different outcome? How does he "play better"?
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Offline cabber24

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #383 on: January 25, 2019, 11:50:39 AM »
Anyway, I think we all know Nylander will start to produce. He could have a game like Kadri just did and then overnight things look a lot more normalized.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #384 on: January 25, 2019, 11:50:41 AM »
Sorry, I was using last 21 games, since Willy's been back.

Edit: Also I miscalculated. FG is at 0.12 not 0.16 iSC/minute.  ;D

Hockey stats typically aren't measured on a per minute basis. It just narrows everything down to too small of a number. Sites like NST give you the option of looking at rate stats per 60 minutes, which has generally becoming the standard for that sort of thing. And using that it shows a pretty wide margin between Nylander and Gauthier in pretty much all shot/scoring chances categories.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #385 on: January 25, 2019, 12:03:07 PM »
Marner's quality of competition is higher, but his quality of teammate is also much higher.

Nylander rolling over 3rd and 4th lines is only natural, and using him and Kadri like a more effective/responsible Bozak-JvR is what makes the Leafs depth so scary since Tavares + Matthews can usually saw off, or go a bit over their top-6 match ups.

If Nylander were in the top six, they might get a slight edge once he fully gets going alongside Matthews, but I don't think Kadri-Kapanen is going to light up bottom-6s as well. Either way, the team has options with its plug and play wingers, at least on the right. The left wing is in tough with Johnsson out.

Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?
Yes, on his next contract he will become the highest paid GOAT in the world.
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Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #386 on: January 25, 2019, 12:03:31 PM »
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Ok, and that's where the numbers suggest a different story. Provided we all agree he's got a certain baseline of talent where he should be able to convert on chances and the numbers show he's generating chances(which should answer any charges of, say, a lack of effort) then what would explain the lack of scoring other than bad luck?

If the effort and talent is there then what can anyone, him or the coaching staff, do differently to get a different outcome? How does he "play better"?

I think what a lot of people have hang ups about Nylander is that he ‘looks’ casual in his general play.

If you iso-watch him though, some of that casualness is because of how easy the basic fundamentals of the game are for him, and some of it is, yes, because he chose the easier route, and other times it’s because he already got the job done easily and is off to offense and never had to do any apparent spade work (Hyman).

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #387 on: January 25, 2019, 12:16:26 PM »
I think what a lot of people have hang ups about Nylander is that he ‘looks’ casual in his general play.

If you iso-watch him though, some of that casualness is because of how easy the basic fundamentals of the game are for him, and some of it is, yes, because he chose the easier route, and other times it’s because he already got the job done easily and is off to offense and never had to do any apparent spade work (Hyman).

Maybe. But not especially physical players with offensive talent always get dogged as lazy, right up to and including Mario Lemieux.

I think the bigger issue here is people who thought Nylander would get less than he did trying to retroactively confirm their beliefs that he wasn't as good a player as his salary demands indicated.
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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #388 on: January 25, 2019, 12:18:08 PM »
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Not sure what else to tell you because I don't fully understand what you mean 'not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity' because he's clearly good enough to be getting the puck into those aforementioned positions to generate really good opportunities better than Leafs not named Tavares and Matthews, while trying to catch up to mid-season form from having 2 months off.

I'd think the timing, accuracy, decision making of where to place his shot isn't up to snuff yet. Maybe it's physical, maybe it's mental. I just think it's too much of a disparity between opportunity and results to just say bad luck.

Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #389 on: January 25, 2019, 12:23:15 PM »
It's taking awhile but fluency in these contextual stats is starting to creep into broadcasts and interview responses from the coach and (especially our) GM.

When Babcock talks about Scoring Chances, I don't think he is referring to the traditional scoring chance defined by Roger Neilson or even the one defined by War-on-Ice as linked in NaturalStatTrick's glossary upthread, but it is a similar concept of contextualizing shot quality (like Expected Goals).

There are many ingredients and variations that go into generating a goal, and each method is just trying to find a uniform way of quantifying it. The NHL started with just counting goals alone, and then added assists, second assists, and then plus/minus (which while flawed, had the right intentions). Analytics is just the recognition that there are many repeatable situations in which hockey goals are scored and wants to dive into which cuts of data will consistently lead to winning.

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #389 on: January 25, 2019, 12:23:15 PM »