Author Topic: The Matthews Extension  (Read 4413 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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The Matthews Extension
« on: July 02, 2018, 09:24:13 PM »

So I thought I'd start a thread to move some of the Matthews talk that's bugging Joe so much out of the Tavares thread and into one where we can talk about the next big issue on the Leafs' plate. Also, I'll be workshopping some plot elements for The Matthews Extension, which is the title of my upcoming spy thriller.

Basically a place to talk about what we think Matthews should get and how that fits into the larger picture.

Personally, I really think that one of the reasons we haven't heard much about this, why Matthews didn't essentially sign the second he could the way McDavid did, is that Dubas wanted to get the Tavares deal done so he could more easily try and sell MNM on the idea of leaving some money on the table for the pursuit of glory the way Johnny Toronto(work in progress) did.

Anyways, I think the Leafs have three options on the table:

1. Go the McDavid/Eichel route and sign the max length deal. The downside here is you basically have to give him whatever he wants salary wise.

2. Go the Stamkos/Tavares route and sign him to a smaller, shorter second deal where you can hopefully get a discount because you're not buying UFA years. The downside being you have to give him a 3rd contract sooner when he has UFA leverage.

3. Maybe an inbetween step where you sign him for 6 or 7 years and get a smaller discount.

Now, because Matthews isn't quite McDavid(yet) I think the Leafs have a compelling case to make in negotiations that he shouldn't get the highest AAV in the league. That said, I think he's got a case that he should do better than Eichel did. So, to me, I'd guess the three options end up looking something like this:

8 years, 92 million

5 years, 45 million

7 years, 73.5 million

Thoughts on which way to go? Personally, I'd kind of lean towards the big mega deal one. I think, as much as I'm excited about Tavares, Matthews is still the guy who's going to be the guy on this team. I'd match any offer sheet for him so getting him long term seems to be the right call.
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The Matthews Extension
« on: July 02, 2018, 09:24:13 PM »

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2018, 09:36:55 PM »
I agree.  It's all about the window, and I'd pin him down for the full 8.  I'd try to do the same (acknowledging it may not be possible) for Nylander and Marner.  Then you'd have all 4 for the full JTness.  Offer-sheet silliness nothwithstanding.

If they can't win a Cup with those 4 over the next 7 years then they never will. 

Offline Zee

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2018, 10:25:32 PM »
I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2018, 10:30:36 PM »
I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

My only question there with Matthews is that because his last year was a bit bumpy due to injury he may feel as though he wouldn't be negotiating from strength.

Even if he just maintains his pace from last year over 82 games this year he'd have scored 45 goals with 83 points. If he can push that even a little bit he'd start to be in Richard/Hart discussions. That may be where he wants to start talking long term numbers.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline princedpw

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2018, 12:47:05 AM »
im puzzling over whether the numbers are reasonable (though I understand they are ballpark to give us the idea)

10.5/year for 7 (73.5)
11.5/year for 8 (92)

The fact that 1 extra year gives him 18.5 million more doesnt really seem to make sense (to me).  At least, if Im Matthews, I definitely take the 92 and if Im the leafs, I definitely offer only 7 for 73.5.

Perhaps the first AAV needs to be a little higher, or the second a little lower?
« Last Edit: July 03, 2018, 12:49:18 AM by princedpw »

Offline princedpw

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2018, 12:50:32 AM »
I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

My only question there with Matthews is that because his last year was a bit bumpy due to injury he may feel as though he wouldn't be negotiating from strength.

Even if he just maintains his pace from last year over 82 games this year he'd have scored 45 goals with 83 points. If he can push that even a little bit he'd start to be in Richard/Hart discussions. That may be where he wants to start talking long term numbers.

Im hoping for 50 with a Richard trophy in the next couple of years.

Offline Hobbes

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2018, 07:03:32 AM »
A real message to the team would be if he'd agree to 8 @ $88m to make himself equal with JT and leave the team that little bit extra for others. The ripple-down effect of both of the team's top guys taking a bit less cash to play on a winner would likely help in Marner and Nylander's negotiations, too.

Whether it would be in Matthews' best interests to sign that deal is a trickier one; but if he's really driven by winning it would be a pretty emphatic way to put an exclamation point on it.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2018, 07:53:44 AM »
A real message to the team would be if he'd agree to 8 @ $88m to make himself equal with JT and leave the team that little bit extra for others. The ripple-down effect of both of the team's top guys taking a bit less cash to play on a winner would likely help in Marner and Nylander's negotiations, too.

Whether it would be in Matthews' best interests to sign that deal is a trickier one; but if he's really driven by winning it would be a pretty emphatic way to put an exclamation point on it.

Yeah even if he signs an 8-year deal I don't expect it to be higher than $11mil. That's still a $1mil bump over what Eichel got.

Offline Joe S.

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2018, 08:01:43 AM »

So I thought I'd start a thread to move some of the Matthews talk that's bugging Joe so much out of the Tavares thread and into one where we can talk about the next big issue on the Leafs' plate. Also, I'll be workshopping some plot elements for The Matthews Extension, which is the title of my upcoming spy thriller.

Basically a place to talk about what we think Matthews should get and how that fits into the larger picture.


Thank you

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2018, 08:35:22 AM »
What's the most years he could sign for and still be an RFA when the contract expires? I think it's four?

I would prefer 8 at 88.

Offline Zee

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2018, 08:54:53 AM »
I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

My only question there with Matthews is that because his last year was a bit bumpy due to injury he may feel as though he wouldn't be negotiating from strength.

Even if he just maintains his pace from last year over 82 games this year he'd have scored 45 goals with 83 points. If he can push that even a little bit he'd start to be in Richard/Hart discussions. That may be where he wants to start talking long term numbers.
I hear you but I don't think the Leafs would try to mess around with squeezing Matthews due to sheer numbers being down because of injury. They know he's the golden goose and will pay him accordingly. I don't think it'll be a difficult negotiation at all. He'll be more than Eichel, less than McDavid.

Offline Kaberle15

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2018, 08:58:49 AM »
One thing that the big 3 might consider is to use the same way that JT contract was structured, heavy on SB and small on salary. They do have a potential lockout coming, and SB would guarantee the money, and that could sweet it up for then.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2018, 09:03:20 AM »
One thing that the big 3 might consider is to use the same way that JT contract was structured, heavy on SB and small on salary. They do have a potential lockout coming, and SB would guarantee the money, and that could sweet it up for then.

I know MLSE is made of money, but I'd genuinely wonder how much they could comfortable pay out in one lump sum every single July 1st. Would they have $40-50mil-ish just lying around at that time every year?

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2018, 10:05:07 AM »
One thing that the big 3 might consider is to use the same way that JT contract was structured, heavy on SB and small on salary. They do have a potential lockout coming, and SB would guarantee the money, and that could sweet it up for then.

I know MLSE is made of money, but I'd genuinely wonder how much they could comfortable pay out in one lump sum every single July 1st. Would they have $40-50mil-ish just lying around at that time every year?

Is this a serious question?

They've already netted $57M on sales of Tavares jerseys and we are only at Day 3.

Offline Guru Tugginmypuddah

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2018, 10:13:26 AM »
MLSE are also getting $40 million a year for naming rights to the arena.  I think they are ok for cash. 

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Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2018, 10:13:26 AM »