2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[Bullfrog]

I'm just wondering, how do you 2 guys slot in a guy into the top-4 that has played a grand total of 2 NHL games, at age 26, that couldn't crack the roster the past 3 years?

And Marincin?  Again?  This is like TJ Brennen all over again, and that other guy I can't remember, and Corrado who was so unfairly treated but then couldn't make an NHL roster anywhere else...enough with these projects. 

Let's get a real top-4 RHS d-man that can play 20-25 minutes, and let the 6 other guys, including Holl, fight over who gets the press box for the season.

Yes, they're going to need to trade a nice asset to get that guy.

I'm with you on Holl. Of course, we'd love to be pleasantly surprised, but I don't believe the magical Dubas Development Train® can transform long-shots into top-quality NHLers.

On Marincin: I believe he deserves a spot in the 6th/7th position. He's a good penalty killer and can't be any worse than Polak in handling the puck. I know that "not worse than Polak" isn't exactly shooting for the moon, but I am talking about the 6th/7th spot here.

The big unknown for me is Ozighanov, Borgman, Rosen and where they fit in. Does Ozighanov challenge for the 6th spot? Is he better than that and supplants Zaitsev? Does Zaitsev actually play to the level he's capable?

[bustaheims]

Gardiner and Carrick were really good together in 16/17, and with Babcock's preference to pair LHD with RHD, I expect him to get more ice-time this season (especially since, looking at the value of the contract he signed, management appears to believe in him). Gardiner and Zaitsev, meanwhile, were not so good together. They need to be split up.

What I expect for to start the season is something like:

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Carrick/Marincin
Dermott-Zaitsev
Marincin/Carrick

I agree with Frank on Holl - I think he's getting a little overvalued around here. To me, he seems to be more of a 6/7 at the NHL level, but a good top 4 guy for the Marlies, and I think management will prioritize his help in developing other pieces than having him play an inconsequential role on the big team. They may do the same for Marincin, but I can see Babcock wanting to keep him around as a sort of Polak replacement.

[CarltonTheBear]

But I think the point I'm trying to make is, well, why would they do this again?

You go out and sign perhaps the most prominent free agent to sign in Toronto ever, and have a forward corps that can do major damage, but then back it up with recycled AHLers playing prominent minutes on your blue line? 

I just can't imagine why they'd do this.

I mean I think we'd all love to have a significant upgrade on the blue line, but the Leafs are in a tough spot for that right now. For starters, we do have a cap crunch. We're either going to be right up against the cap this season or right up against the cap next season (or both), but there is a crunch. So acquiring an expensive guy like Justin Faulk who might not even really solve our problems given his skillset maybe isn't the best idea. Trading for Dougie Hamilton would have been great but we don't really have a Hanifin and Lindholm laying around to move.

We also know that they did TRY to acquire a top-4 defenceman for zero assets in Calvin de Haan, but struck out to a probably more lucrative deal. So the team clearly does recognize there's an issue there. I would expect them to be targeting a defenceman at next seasons trade deadline, but until then they probably just play the season out.

[herman]

I'm just wondering, how do you 2 guys slot in a guy into the top-4 that has played a grand total of 2 NHL games, at age 26, that couldn't crack the roster the past 3 years?

And Marincin?  Again?  This is like TJ Brennen all over again, and that other guy I can't remember, and Corrado who was so unfairly treated but then couldn't make an NHL roster anywhere else...enough with these projects. 

Let's get a real top-4 RHS d-man that can play 20-25 minutes, and let the 6 other guys, including Holl, fight over who gets the press box for the season.

Yes, they're going to need to trade a nice asset to get that guy.

I can't speak for Coco, but I liked Seth Griffith, so...

TJ Brennan's issue was he couldn't skate and also had no defensive instinct. Sure as heck could shoot the puck in the net when he had time and space though. Except that we don't need that.

It really comes down to how I'd prefer the team to play defense, i.e. try not to. So guys like Holl and Marincin, who have no/poor track record in the NHL are still value-add options over Roman Polak (and arguably Ron Hainsey forcing top minutes nightly) just by virtue of being able to do things like skate, play a gap that slows down attackers, hold the puck, pass the puck to a forward. With our forward group, that's literally all they need to do as a defenseman to be successful.

On the Cap side of things, I don't think you need a top flight 22-25 min RHD (they're like 7-10M) when you have a small fleet of 1-5M puck fetchers with strong skating skills and heads up passing. The game the Leafs play is only dependent on the defense for stopping/slowing entries, exiting the DZ, keeping the puck in the OZ, and being in position to tie up sticks in the DZ.

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I was reading Wheeler’s prospect rankings over at The Athletic and he mentions that he cuts his list of at the age off 22 as this is when players are done with their aging curve.

I feel like there is a misconception that players stop developing at that point because that’s usually when they’re peaking physically and usually have the most exponential stage in their development.

What it doesn’t account for is the level of skills development work that is happening now at the highest level, I honestly believe that with high end coaching, guys are able to propel their growth forward with hard work and careful study all through their twenties.

Now rarely is anyone going to go from no hoper to superstar, but if you can turn guys that might have been tweeners into sure thing role players who can skate in the NHL you start to give yourself more options.

Being able to flip guys like Brown and Hyman when it comes time to really pay them won’t hurt as much because there will be low cost replacements.

[herman]

Holl was the Marlies' 1D and got the Rielly treatment: only even strength against top lines and PK. In spite of that deployment, he was the highest scoring defenseman on the team.

[Bill_Berg]

How would I slot them:

Gardiner - Rielly
Dermott - Holl
Marincin - Zaitsev

This is pretty much how I'd do it too.

I'd also be open to
Rielly - Dermott
Gardiner - Holl (Minnesotaaaaaaa)/Carrick
Marincin - Zaitsev

Gardiner - Rielly
Dermott - Zaitsev/Carrick
Marincin - Holl/Carrick

PP options*: Rielly, Gardiner, Dermott, Carrick, Zaitsev
PK options: Marincin, Zaitsev, Holl, Rielly

* Seeing as how the PP is driven through the right half wall, an LD at the top of the umbrella is preferred.

I'm just wondering, how do you 2 guys slot in a guy into the top-4 that has played a grand total of 2 NHL games, at age 26, that couldn't crack the roster the past 3 years?

And Marincin?  Again?  This is like TJ Brennen all over again, and that other guy I can't remember, and Corrado who was so unfairly treated but then couldn't make an NHL roster anywhere else...enough with these projects. 

Let's get a real top-4 RHS d-man that can play 20-25 minutes, and let the 6 other guys, including Holl, fight over who gets the press box for the season.

Yes, they're going to need to trade a nice asset to get that guy.

I don't have high hopes that Holl will fit into a top 4, but he played well with Dermott in the AHL so putting them together may work out well. Ideally, they're the 3rd pairing but if you do that, you're missing a couple of top four guys. So it's a stretch for sure, but it feels like a pick your poison situation and in this case, the devil we don't know is the preferred option. Of course, Holl would need to have a great camp first to be on any pairing too, so we'll know more about that devil before the season starts.

If a top-four guy was out there that we could both afford capwise and tradewise, they'd get him. If there isn't, gotta do something!

[CarltonTheBear]

Checking out the list of defencemen who are still UFAs, there's still over a dozen guys who could be ok depth options (although most of them are lefties). I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Dubas throws one or two of them a PTO for training camp. I'm not really convinced any of them are upgrades over what we've got, but they could be given a chance.

[Frank E]

I can't speak for Coco, but I liked Seth Griffith, so...

TJ Brennan's issue was he couldn't skate and also had no defensive instinct. Sure as heck could shoot the puck in the net when he had time and space though. Except that we don't need that.

Sure, but Marincin got beat on the regular in the NHL, so they shipped him to the A last time.  He wasn't on the roster for his PP skills.

It really comes down to how I'd prefer the team to play defense, i.e. try not to. So guys like Holl and Marincin, who have no/poor track record in the NHL are still value-add options over Roman Polak (and arguably Ron Hainsey forcing top minutes nightly) just by virtue of being able to do things like skate, play a gap that slows down attackers, hold the puck, pass the puck to a forward. With our forward group, that's literally all they need to do as a defenseman to be successful.

Oh good, we're still blaming Polak for all the defense problems...and we're suggesting that guys that played in the AHL last year are better options...and as Frog said, maybe we should be shooting a little higher than "they might be better than Polak".

On the Cap side of things, I don't think you need a top flight 22-25 min RHD (they're like 7-10M) when you have a small fleet of 1-5M puck fetchers with strong skating skills and heads up passing. The game the Leafs play is only dependent on the defense for stopping/slowing entries, exiting the DZ, keeping the puck in the OZ, and being in position to tie up sticks in the DZ.

Well, I don't think you need a $7m -$10m guy to upgrade you from an AHL player.  But more importantly, this "play more offense and you won't need to play defense" crap doesn't jive with what zone times are on the average, even on the best of teams.  You still need guys that can play strong at both ends of the ice, and the Leafs don't have enough of those guys on the RHS defense position. 

We need to remember that this team lost one of the best PP goal guys in the league, and although adding Tavares certainly is an upgrade, I'm not sure it's enough to get this team out of the first round, especially if the plan is to run career AHLers on the blueline.

[Frank E]

Holl was the Marlies' 1D and got the Rielly treatment: only even strength against top lines and PK. In spite of that deployment, he was the highest scoring defenseman on the team.

He got the Rielly treatment in the AHL.  I'm not saying that he's going to be bad, I'm saying it's not likely he's good enough to be good in the NHL, and especially on a team that has sights on a deep run this season.  I'd rather them trade a nice forward asset, or 2, for a nice RHD asset, then if by some miracle Holl can play a decent NHL shift, they'll have some depth.

[herman]

Sure, but Marincin got beat on the regular in the NHL, so they shipped him to the A last time.  He wasn't on the roster for his PP skills.

An updated view of Marincin's work will explain why some of us feel he has a place on our NHL roster.

Oh good, we're still blaming Polak for all the defense problems...and we're suggesting that guys that played in the AHL last year are better options...and as Frog said, maybe we should be shooting a little higher than "they might be better than Polak".

I'm blaming Polak-type playstyle, actually, of which he is representative. The team looked good when the defense could hold the puck a little bit longer to make a clean pass than it did just bombing it out of the zone for a couple of icings.

Well, I don't think you need a $7m -$10m guy to upgrade you from an AHL player.  But more importantly, this "play more offense and you won't need to play defense" crap doesn't jive with what zone times are on the average, even on the best of teams.  You still need guys that can play strong at both ends of the ice, and the Leafs don't have enough of those guys on the RHS defense position. 

Please name some options for acquisition that would actually be worth acquiring without costing a roster player; I'm open to transactions that provide value. Right now I only see options that are cost-prohibitive or non-needlemovers. I'd argue our right side D these last couple of seasons were only known for 'playing strong' and couldn't do enough of the other things.

[Frank E]

An updated view of Marincin's work will explain why some of us feel he has a place on our NHL roster.

My opinion is that I've seen enough of Marincin's work in the actual NHL to say that I don't think he's good enough for a prominent role on this team, given the goal this season.  I'd feel more comfortable with Josh Leivo playing 5 minutes a game on the fourth line than I would be Marincin or Holl playing 15.

I'm blaming Polak-type playstyle, actually, of which he is representative. The team looked good when the defense could hold the puck a little bit longer to make a clean pass than it did just bombing it out of the zone for a couple of icings.

Can't you say that about every team in the league though?

Please name some options for acquisition that would actually be worth acquiring without costing a roster player; I'm open to transactions that provide value. Right now I only see options that are cost-prohibitive or non-needlemovers. I'd argue our right side D these last couple of seasons were only known for 'playing strong' and couldn't do enough of the other things.

I'm saying that it's going to cost them a good roster player, maybe 2 to get the salaries to jive.  I have no idea who is available, I'm not an NHL GM.  What I'm arguing is that Dubas needs to find a way to upgrade this glaring hole(s) in the roster.  Good thing for him he's got some nice pieces up front to dangle as currency.

[mr grieves]

Please name some options for acquisition that would actually be worth acquiring without costing a roster player; I'm open to transactions that provide value. Right now I only see options that are cost-prohibitive or non-needlemovers. I'd argue our right side D these last couple of seasons were only known for 'playing strong' and couldn't do enough of the other things.

Gudas. Pysyk. Petry. Tulloch had a column with a several options.

Anyhow, I'd be happy with
Reilly - Gardiner
Dermott - Zaitsev
Hainsey/Rosen/Borgman - Holl/Carrick/Hainsey

[bustaheims]

Gudas. Pysyk. Petry. Tulloch had a column with a several options.

Hard pass on Gudas - too high a risk of suspension to be relied upon day-in, day-out. Also, spends too much time in the penalty box (though, a good chunk of those minutes are fighting majors - so, not putting his team on the PK, but still putting his team down a defenceman for 5 minutes at a time). Would prefer to avoid Petry's contract, and what it would cost for Montreal to send him here.

Pysyk is intriguing, depending on the cost of acquisition.

[herman]

I'm blaming Polak-type playstyle, actually, of which he is representative. The team looked good when the defense could hold the puck a little bit longer to make a clean pass than it did just bombing it out of the zone for a couple of icings.

Can't you say that about every team in the league though?

Please name some options for acquisition that would actually be worth acquiring without costing a roster player; I'm open to transactions that provide value. Right now I only see options that are cost-prohibitive or non-needlemovers. I'd argue our right side D these last couple of seasons were only known for 'playing strong' and couldn't do enough of the other things.

I'm saying that it's going to cost them a good roster player, maybe 2 to get the salaries to jive.  I have no idea who is available, I'm not an NHL GM.  What I'm arguing is that Dubas needs to find a way to upgrade this glaring hole(s) in the roster.  Good thing for him he's got some nice pieces up front to dangle as currency.

If every other team has Polak-type players, wouldn't it behoove us to perhaps not?

My argument here is that we have a small stable, already in-house, of players who present marked improvements on what we've been using the past two seasons (which you don't believe, but that's because there's no NHL evidence yet). They generally play the way I'd like our defense to play, are borderline-free and can collectively hold the fort for 2+ years until trade opportunities come about or Liljegren/Sandin/etc. make the jump.