Author Topic: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition  (Read 11754 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline cabber24

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1969
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2018, 10:29:14 AM »
Marner/Kadri/Marleau will have an opportunity with Matthews drawing Bergeron. Our offensive depth needs to shine. Let's frustrate these bullies with our speed. Be elusive, quick and deadly. Let them chase the game.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

TMLfans.ca

Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2018, 10:29:14 AM »

Offline nutman

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1767
  • Marner... This kid has game.
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2018, 10:47:41 AM »
Payback is at hand... go get em Leafs.  If we use our speed we will win this.

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 16785
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2018, 12:00:56 PM »
I like the optimism here and I definitely think we can win this series but Boston has shown it's very good at playing a shutdown game.  And winning even when they have key guys out.  And they have home ice.  I don't see the Leafs winning this (if they do) in less than 7.  It's going to be a war.

Offline princedpw

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 2196
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #18 on: April 09, 2018, 12:01:03 PM »

This will be a very interesting matchup.

How does this model work?  Why would the leafs be favored over Boston, Tampa and everyone else in their division?

Online CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 24510
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #19 on: April 09, 2018, 12:13:21 PM »
How does this model work?  Why would the leafs be favored over Boston, Tampa and everyone else in their division?


Toronto's shot generation numbers are insanely good:




Those red and purple shades show that they get a crap-ton more shots off in the slot than other teams.

Online herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 16434
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #20 on: April 09, 2018, 12:19:11 PM »
How does this model work?  Why would the leafs be favored over Boston, Tampa and everyone else in their division?

Micah mentioned last week that Toronto's powerplay (particularly our shot volume and location) was a large contributing factor.

Here's his breakdown of the model: http://hockeyviz.com/txt/edgar

The line up estimation aspect takes into account the probability of a player under contract participating in the game as well as the projected TOI. Where Toronto might grade out above this model is that our deployment has generally been curated for balance throughout the season. Boston is top heavy up front and at the back, so their only adjustment option is to spread thinner. Toronto has the option to give Matthews, Nylander, Kadri, Marner, JvR even more minutes than they've received in the regular season and stack their incremental gains to tip win probabilities if they so choose.

Every individual's rates for shots, penalties, etc. is factored into the whole and the single game being played is run through a simulator for a result spread. Each second of the game is assessed for penalty chance or shot chance and the probabilities and rates are run accordingly.

Interestingly, he also has Minnesota with a small leg up on Winnipeg (which models out to overwhelming favourites in others') due to their defensive prowess at reducing shots (even without Suter).

Edit: I should also add that Micah noted that this iteration of the model didn't do so hot in the regular season.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 12:24:29 PM by herman »

Online Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4450
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2018, 01:01:49 PM »
Edit: I should also add that Micah noted that this iteration of the model didn't do so hot in the regular season.

OK, what?  So his model isn't predictive at all?

Online CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 24510
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2018, 01:06:23 PM »
Here's one area where the Leafs have a pretty huge edge over Boston: Since January 1st the Bruins are 5th in the league in minor penalties taken with 145 in 45 games. The Leafs in that same span are 30th with 107 minors in 42 games.

Online Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4450
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2018, 01:06:51 PM »
Really glad to see there are no afternoon games, or stupid Sunday games, so far.

Offline iwas11in67

  • Rookie
  • ***
  • Posts: 425
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2018, 01:32:04 PM »
Leafs road to the cup is extremely hard - Bruins, Lightning, Penquins and then the Predators. No wonder they call this the hardest sport to win the championship. To win 4 from each of those teams without home ice will be very tough.

Offline nutman

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1767
  • Marner... This kid has game.
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #25 on: April 09, 2018, 01:52:41 PM »
Leafs road to the cup is extremely hard - Bruins, Lightning, Penquins and then the Predators. No wonder they call this the hardest sport to win the championship. To win 4 from each of those teams without home ice will be very tough.


Tampa, Pitt, and Nash have not made it there yet. Upsets can happen, but ya I agree it will be a tough road for whoever wins it all.

Online Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4450
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2018, 02:14:50 PM »
Where's the thread from the beginning of the season where all you idiots made your predictions on where teams were to end up today?

Offline Rob

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 2953
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #27 on: April 09, 2018, 02:24:04 PM »
Where's the thread from the beginning of the season where all you idiots made your predictions on where teams were to end up today?

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4677.0

Online Zee

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 11739
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #28 on: April 09, 2018, 02:32:09 PM »
It's funny looking back at the old thread of predictions and seeing how highly regarded Edmonton was before the season began.  ;D

Offline Coco-puffs

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1519
  • TMLfans Rocks!
    • View Profile
Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #29 on: April 09, 2018, 02:45:39 PM »
Nik was on fire (he wasn't alone in many of these predictions)...


You all know how this goes.

West

1. Edmonton
2. Nashville
3. Anaheim
4. Calgary
5. Chicago
6. Dallas
7. San Jose
8. Minnesota
9. St. Louis
10. Los Angeles
11. Arizona
12. Winnipeg
13. Vancouver
14. Colorado
15. Vegas

East

1. Pittsburgh
2. Tampa
3. Washington
4. Florida
5. Toronto
6. Montreal
7. Columbus
8. Philly
9. NYR
10. Ottawa
11. NYI
12. Carolina
13. Buffalo
14. Boston
15. New Jersey
16. Detroit

Cup Pick: Tampa over Edmonton
Awards: Connor McDavid for all of them. Norris, Adams, the lot.


12, 14, and 15 in the West all make the playoffs, while 1, 4, 5, 6 miss.
His East wasn't as bad, but Boston and New Jersey had way better years than he (or anyone, in NJ's case) expected.  Montreal was the only real miss at the top of the east.


As much as I'd love to point and laugh- I don't think I would have guessed much differently (except for Boston and Winnipeg).  What a weird year.

TMLfans.ca

Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition
« Reply #29 on: April 09, 2018, 02:45:39 PM »