Author Topic: Armchair GM 2018-2019  (Read 47801 times)

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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #690 on: August 23, 2018, 11:09:29 AM »
And if we're using the Penguins big-3 as a template to copy, then Tavares - Matthews - Marner would be my preference over Tavares - Matthews - Nylander.

Yeah, the Leafs already have 2 Kessel's and a 3C that far exceeds what Pittsburgh used in their last Cup winning year. So if anything the Pittsburgh model tells us we have talent to spare up front.

Again, I'm not saying that we should trade Nylander for Karlsson, but that idea that it would hurt our Cup chances in the next few years seems pretty iffy.

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #690 on: August 23, 2018, 11:09:29 AM »

Offline Frycer14

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #691 on: August 23, 2018, 11:26:35 AM »

Again, I'm not saying that we should trade Nylander for Karlsson, but that idea that it would hurt our Cup chances in the next few years seems pretty iffy.

Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #692 on: August 23, 2018, 11:45:09 AM »
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Offline Frycer14

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #693 on: August 23, 2018, 11:48:04 AM »
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Where are you reading that claim? All the counterpoint I'm reading is relative to the back end of the contract.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #694 on: August 23, 2018, 12:12:21 PM »
Where are you reading that claim? All the counterpoint I'm reading is relative to the back end of the contract.

Well I think the talk about the Pittsburgh model sure implied it.

But even if I read into that wrong, I still disagree about the other counterpoint you brought up. Maybe this is a bit of a hot take, but as a fan I'm really not too concerned about what the team will look like in 2024. We aren't a rebuilding team anymore, our roster management decisions should be done with the goal of winning as many Cups in the next 4 years as possible. Obviously there's limits to that. You can't trade all of the 2020 draft picks for something. And I wouldn't be looking to trade Nylander for Chara or something like that. But most HHOF-calibre defencemen (and let's make one thing clear, that's what Karlsson is) are still top pairing guys into their late 30s.

So even if Karlsson's play drops off a bit in the back end of the contract I think you can make the case a 36 or whatever year old Karlsson would be just as valuable as a 30 year old Nylander.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2018, 12:15:22 PM by CarltonTheBear »

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #695 on: August 23, 2018, 12:25:10 PM »
Really I'm fine with people not wanting to trade Nylander for Karlsson. Especially when you take potential cap considerations into play. My issue is with the arguments that don't seem to take into consideration how good Karlsson really is, and how good he'll continue to be.

Offline herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #696 on: August 23, 2018, 12:36:07 PM »
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Karlsson would help us win, no doubt; Karlsson is a player I want on our team, but not if it costs Nylander. I believe keeping Nylander would help us win more Cups.

For me it's not just a Nylander vs. Karlsson comparison, as it's more a Nylander + something with that cap space vs Karlsson - additional acquisition cost, as well as my personal build philosophy and playstyle preference. Elements of what Karlsson brings to the table I'd argue we already have in Rielly + Gardiner + Dermott, just not on the right side yet.

I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.
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Offline Frank E

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #697 on: August 23, 2018, 01:35:32 PM »
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Karlsson would help us win, no doubt; Karlsson is a player I want on our team, but not if it costs Nylander. I believe keeping Nylander would help us win more Cups.

For me it's not just a Nylander vs. Karlsson comparison, as it's more a Nylander + something with that cap space vs Karlsson - additional acquisition cost, as well as my personal build philosophy and playstyle preference. Elements of what Karlsson brings to the table I'd argue we already have in Rielly + Gardiner + Dermott, just not on the right side yet.

I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.

I think the idea of having an elite Norris winner pushing your offense for 25-30 minutes a game in the playoffs is a pretty enticing idea...especially since Karlsson can skate with the Leafs' top forwards.

Offline Zee

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #698 on: August 23, 2018, 01:39:28 PM »
If we could somehow add Karlsson for this season WITHOUT giving up one of our core forward pieces I'd be all for it of course. 

I think people are selling Nylander short.  He's had back to back 60+ point seasons and I believe he still has more to give.  He could become a true elite level winger and put up a point a game type production, especially in the next few seasons given the center depth the Leafs have.  I know you build through center ice, but I think it's still extremely valuable to have high end wingers with those centers, and Nylander has a lethal shot which forces the opposition to respect him in addition to the center he plays with (Matthews) as both are threats to score.  I'm fully expecting a huge breakout year from Nylander upcoming, and I want the Leafs to reap the benefits of that.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #699 on: August 23, 2018, 02:01:10 PM »
I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.

But I mean it's not like we're talking about a stay at home defenceman here. I'd argue that Karlsson would have an even bigger impact on the teams "scoring talent" and their ability to "overmatch offence" as Nylander would.

Offline Frycer14

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #700 on: August 23, 2018, 02:47:44 PM »
But I mean it's not like we're talking about a stay at home defenceman here. I'd argue that Karlsson would have an even bigger impact on the teams "scoring talent" and their ability to "overmatch offence" as Nylander would.

Completely agree with that. Especially now that you can stack a scoring/offense threat across a position with less competing minutes.

Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #701 on: August 23, 2018, 04:51:21 PM »
I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.

But I mean it's not like we're talking about a stay at home defenceman here. I'd argue that Karlsson would have an even bigger impact on the teams "scoring talent" and their ability to "overmatch offence" as Nylander would.

<internet hug>

I mean, seriously, we're talking about Erik freakin' Karlsson here. I love Nylander (he's my favourite of the big three), but I'd send him packing with a 1st rounder in his pocket in an instant if Karlsson on a long-term contract was coming the other way.


Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #702 on: August 23, 2018, 05:12:11 PM »
Note that the Penguins couldn't repeat their Cup winning ways with Crosby-Malkin until there was additional elite scoring threat from the wings (Kessel), i.e. 3-line depth.

Sure, but Kessel was kind of replacing Neal though.

And if we're using the Penguins big-3 as a template to copy, then Tavares - Matthews - Marner would be my preference over Tavares - Matthews - Nylander.

If it's Dubas' intent to keep all 4 of them, then indeed a $11m Karlsson is not in the cards.  If we look at the Capitals roster, other than 68 points out of Carlson, the defense doesn't really wow you...just like the 2016 and 2017 Penguins D corps.

I'm sort of thinking that the Leafs have sort of doubled down on a Letang or a Carlson, in Rielly and Gardiner combined.

I think you are seriously under-rating Orlov-Niskanen.  Their point totals don't wow you, but watch them play, especially Orlov, and you'd be ECSTATIC to have them.  They do all the heavy lifting so that Carlson doesn't have to face the other teams top guys.

Offline Rob

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #703 on: August 23, 2018, 06:50:35 PM »
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Karlsson would help us win, no doubt; Karlsson is a player I want on our team, but not if it costs Nylander. I believe keeping Nylander would help us win more Cups.

For me it's not just a Nylander vs. Karlsson comparison, as it's more a Nylander + something with that cap space vs Karlsson - additional acquisition cost, as well as my personal build philosophy and playstyle preference. Elements of what Karlsson brings to the table I'd argue we already have in Rielly + Gardiner + Dermott, just not on the right side yet.

I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.


Offline bustaheims

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #704 on: August 23, 2018, 06:55:48 PM »
Not that it matters, but...

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #704 on: August 23, 2018, 06:55:48 PM »